Off track to 2050?: a study of present and future interurban transportation emissions in British Columbia, Canada, relative to its Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets Act of 2007

Carbon dioxide (CO\u2082) emissions from transportation contribute to anthropogenic climate change and are expected to increase significantly in the future. CO\u2082 emission inventories exist for various transportation modes at the global scale, but are rare at the subnational scale and even rarer for interurban (versus urban) transportation. In this dissertation, I present a detailed analysis of CO\u2082 emissions and emission factors for interurban transportation for the province of British Columbia (BC), Canada, and an analysis of a wide variety of emission scenarios for BC\u2019s interurban transportation system, comparing modelled emissions to the 2020 and 2050 greenhouse gas reduction targets set by the province\u2019s 2007 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets Act. Nine modes of transportation were included: passenger (private vehicles, ferries, aviation, intercity buses, trains) and freight (trucking, marine, rail, aviation). Annual CO\u2082 emissions from BC interurban transportation were approximately 11.2 Mt CO\u2082 in 2013, of which freight trucking was the greatest contributor with 48.5% of total CO\u2082 emissions. The second largest contributor was private vehicles (17.1% of total CO\u2082 emissions), while the third largest contributor was marine freight (16.8% of total CO\u2082 emissions). Of 106 scenarios modelling future changes to the interurban transportation system, only 15 were able to meet BC\u2019s 2050 emission reduction target, and only two were able to meet both the 2020 and 2050 targets (assuming interurban transportation had to meet the same emission reductions as prescribed for the economy as a whole). Only scenarios with the highest reduction rates were able to meet the reduction targets, and with every passing year, meeting them becomes more challenging.