Hydro-climatological Trend Analysis and Influences on the Discharge in the Elk River Watershed, Southeast British Columbia

Hydro-climatological modelling in mountainous environments is difficult due to topographic and climatic variability. Therefore, observed data (1970-2009) were used to assess trends in the Elk River watershed, a region experiencing growth of its open-pit coal mining industry. The Mann-Kendall trend test identified a decrease in snow throughout the watershed, small increase in rain, and overall decrease in northern precipitation. Moreover, mid-basin increase in temperature was detected. An increase in the Fording River winter discharge, counteracted the summer decrease in total watershed discharge from 1970-1989. Linear modelling identified baseflow, precipitation, and atmospheric teleconnection patterns as strong discharge drivers; whereas, the double mass curve identified a precipitation and discharge relationship change starting after 2007. Unfortunately, efforts to incorporate the Soil Water Assessment Tool proved unsuccessful for this watershed. Overall, these hydro-climatological trends were not as synchronized as expected likely due to other variables, such as watershed buffering capabilities and/or land-cover change.