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Title: The relationship between climate and outbreak dynamics of Dothistroma needle blight in northwest British Columbia, Canada.
Contributors: Cedar Welsh (author), Kathy Lewis (Thesis advisor), University of Northern British Columbia (Degree granting institution)
Abstract: No abstract available.
Discipline: Biology
Date added: 2017-03-30T17:03:38.844Z

Title: Community adaptation to climate change: An exploration of climate change adaptation planning in British Columbia.
Contributors: Ian Picketts (author), John Curry (Thesis advisor), Eric Rapaport (Thesis advisor), University of Northern British Columbia (Degree granting institution)
Abstract: Planners in British Columbia must adapt to climate change by preparing for expected and unexpected changes in their communities. The results of survey and workshop research conducted at the Planning Institute of BC conference indicate that planners do not have a high level of knowledge of climate change adaptation. Planners feel that the impacts that will affect BC the most in 50 years will be related to forests, agriculture, river flooding, transportation and water. Different regions in the province will be affected in different ways, and adaptation strategies must be created for the specific needs and attributes of a community. Open-structured workshops are a good method to educate planners about climate change adaptation however, they should not be expected to yield results that can be incorporated into planning documents. Global climate models are a valuable tool that decision makers can use to help determine appropriate planning actions. --P. ii.
Discipline: Natural Resources & Environmental Studies
Date added: 2017-03-30T17:07:50.439Z

Title: Using bioclimatic envelope modelling to incorporate spatial and temporal dynamics of climate change into conservation planning.
Contributors: Nancy-Anne Rose (author), Philip Burton (Thesis advisor), University of Northern British Columbia (Degree granting institution)
Abstract: Current and predicted trends in climate are diverging from historic norms, thereby compromising the equilibrial basis of our resource management frameworks. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on biodiversity in the context of conservation planning for British Columbia's Central Interior. I used bioclimatic envelope modeling and a climate interpolation and general circulation model downscaling tool to assess 73 rare plant species, 103 biogeoclimatic variants, and 30 terrestrial ecosystem units. I mapped areas projected to support climate suitable for the persistence of those conservation targets through to the 2080s. Results illustrate the potential for disruptive change only 12% (24) of the 206 targets are projected to experience persistent climate at their current locations. Although strong overlap among locations projected to persist for different targets was not found, and those areas meeting multiple objectives (including value independent of climate change) are clear priorities for protection. This methodology can function as a valuable tool for conservation planners and resource managers. --P. [i]
Discipline: Biology
Date added: 2017-03-30T17:07:38.621Z

Title: Pragmatism, projections, priorities, plans and politics in Prince George: Adapting to climate change in a Canadian community.
Contributors: Ian M. Picketts (author), Stephen Dery (Thesis advisor), John Curry (Thesis advisor), University of Northern British Columbia (Degree granting institution)
Abstract: The two principal human responses to climate change are adaptation and mitigation. A small, but growing, number of scientific and professional efforts are focusing toward adaptation, as it becomes clear that mitigation efforts alone can no longer effectively minimize the negative impacts of climate change. Local governments are well suited to undertake proactive adaptation measures due to their abilities to apply social capital, act quickly, and implement actions that can provide direct benefits for residents. Like many northern communities, the City of Prince George, Canada, has been experiencing rapid rates of climate change. City practitioners have been responding to changing conditions in the region for years, and expressed interest in formally exploring adaptation with researchers. During a focused one-day workshop, an overview of climate change and past climate trend and future projection information were presented to local staff and stakeholders, and applied to determine impact priorities. The workshop outcomes were triangulated with community feedback to create an adaptation strategy for Prince George. Changes to forests and increased flooding are the top local priorities, and impacts related to transportation infrastructure, severe weather and water supply are high priorities. Other impacts, such as agricultural changes, are important but did not rank highly using a risk assessment framework. The adaptation strategy precipitated further local engagement and action. Researchers participated in the processes to create a sustainability plan and update the Official Community Plan for Prince George. Many adaptation measures were integrated into both documents. Factors enabling the incorporation of adaptation included the high level of local knowledge and existing adaptation strategy. Many barriers, including limited policy direction and a lack of priority, continue to pose challenges in mainstreaming adaptation into local plans. Additional research focused on forests, flooding, transportation infrastructure
Discipline: Natural Resources & Environmental Studies
Date added: 2017-04-11T21:14:25.974Z

Title: Environment, climate and tree growth relationships at the western Canadian Arctic treeline.
Contributors: Sean P. Sweeney (author), Scott Green (Thesis advisor), University of Northern British Columbia (Degree granting institution)
Abstract: The latitudinal forest-tundra ecotone is an area that is experiencing substantial changes with respect to tree growth and climate change. We examined the response of radial tree growth to climate in adjacent regions of northern Yukon and Northwest Territories, Canada, across environmental and spatial gradients using dendrochronological methods. Principal components analysis was used to derive the primary modes of variation in the tree-ring records, which were subsequently attributed to environmental and climatic features. We found that slope gradient (small spatial scales) and ecoregional classification (larger spatial scales) played substantial roles in determining the response of tree growth to climate. Climate correlations were found for current and previous years to growth, many of which challenge currently held assumptions regarding the dominant climatic determinants of tree growth at high latitudes. These findings indicate that Arctic forest environments are highly complex, and that expected changes in the biosphere will occur at various rates, times and places. --P. ii.
Discipline: Biology
Date added: 2017-03-30T17:09:32.815Z

Title: Groundwater -- surface water interaction under the effects of climate and land use changes.
Contributors: Gopal Chandra Saha (author), Jianbing Li (Thesis advisor), Ronald Wallen Thring (Thesis advisor), University of Northern British Columbia (Degree granting institution)
Abstract: Historical observed data and future climate projections provide enough evidence that water resources systems (i.e., surface water and groundwater) are extremely vulnerable to climate change. However, the impact of climate change on water resources systems varies from region to region. Therefore, climate change impact studies of water resources systems are of interest at regional to local scales. These studies provide a better understanding of the sensitivity of water resources systems to changes in climatic variable (i.e., precipitation and temperature), and help to manage future water resources. In addition to climate change, human-induced land use changes also significantly affect water resources systems. Therefore, climate and land use changes can provide offsetting and additive impacts on water resources systems depending on the region and watershed characteristics. In this dissertation research, groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interaction under the effects of climate and land use changes were investigated through the development of a Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) modeling system using a case study in Kiskatinaw River watershed (KRW), British Columbia, Canada. --Leaf i.
Discipline: Natural Resources & Environmental Studies
Date added: 2017-04-11T21:14:35.427Z

Title: "With a connection to the land, our spirit is strong" Tlicho traditional knowledge of climate change and impacts for caribou hunting: implication for traditional knowledge research
Contributors: Petter Jacobsen (author), Chris Johnson (Thesis advisor), University of Northern British Columbia (Degree granting institution)
Abstract: My research was to document the Elders knowledge of climate change and the impacts on caribou hunting. The Elders explained starting in the 1960-70s the weather has become warmer and drier leading to a change in hunting locations and modified hunting times. Changes to wind patterns as well as changes to snow and ice conditions have caused uncertain weather predictions and increased the community members' focus on safety. The consequence of these impacts of climate change is an increased reliance on gas and money to sustain hunting. The Tlicho Elders tied these environmental changes to human-environment interactions and interpreted these climate changes with the larger process of social changes within modern society. Based on such social perspectives of the environment, I argue that Traditional Knowledge research of climate change needs to be based on an Indigenous perception, and I provide recommendations to indigenize climate change research with sub-arctic Indigenous peoples. --P. 2.
Discipline: Interdisciplinary Studies
Date added: 2017-03-30T17:11:41.094Z

Title: Trends and elevational dependence of the hydroclimatology of the Cariboo Mountains, British Columbia.
Contributors: Aseem Raj Sharma (author), Stephen Dery (Thesis advisor), University of Northern British Columbia (Degree granting institution)
Abstract: Pristine mountain environments are more sensitive to climate change than other land surfaces. The understanding of climatic variations in mountainous terrain is still uncertain. Previous studies reveal inconsistent findings on the elevational dependency of warming in the mountains. In this study, the trends and elevational dependence of climatic variables in the Cariboo Mountains Region (CMR) of British Columbia are explored. A high resolution 10 km x 10 km gridded data set of climate variables over the period of 1950-2010 is used. The Mann-Kendall test is performed for evaluation of trends and their significance. The CMR is warming at a faster rate in recent decades than regional and global warming. The minimum air temperature trend shows significant amplified warming at higher elevations. Precipitation does not show any significant trend across the study area. The possible physical mechanisms for such warming trends and the potential impacts of these changes on the endangered mountain caribou and water resources of the area are discussed. --Leaf i.
Discipline: Natural Resources & Environmental Studies
Date added: 2017-04-11T21:13:54.895Z

Title: The influence of glacier change on sediment yield, Peyto Basin, Alberta, Canada.
Contributors: Theodore John Mlynowski (author), Brian Menounos (Thesis advisor), University of Northern British Columbia (Degree granting institution)
Abstract: The relation between sediment yield and glacier fluctuations at timescales less than a century remains uncertain. The primary goal of this study was to assess the influence of glacier activity on sediment yield within the Peyto Lake watershed. The research focused on a small alpine watershed in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta containing Peyto Glacier and the proglacial Peyto Lake. Using photogrammetric methods I determined changes in length, area, and volume of Peyto Glacier from a topographic survey map (1917) and 18 sets of aerial photographs (1947-2005). I also collected 18 sediment cores from Peyto Lake that consists of laminated, silt-clay couplets which can be shown through ¹³⁷Cs activity to be clastic varves. Varve thickness and sediment properties were combined to produce an annual record (1917-2010) of specific sediment yield (SSY) for the watershed. I then compared the SSY record to dimensional changes of Peyto Glacier as well as available mass balance records, hydrometric records, and climate records over the study period (1917-2010). Over the period 1917-2005, Peyto Glacier retreated 2198 ± 18 m, shrank 4.0 ± 0.9 km², thinned 44 ± 31 m, and lost 581 ± 404 x 10⁶ m³ water equivalent (w.e.). I measured an additional 85 ± 4 x 10⁶ m³ w.e. of ice loss from thinning ice-cored moraines adjacent to the glacier. Over the period 1917-2005 SSY averaged 446 ± 176 Mg km²yr⁻¹, which is among the highest measured yields in the Canadian Cordillera; however, this value is relatively low for glaciated basins worldwide. The SSY record has a poor relation to short-term dimensional changes of Peyto Glacier, likely due to the complexity of sediment transfers in proglacial environments. Long-term trends in SSY are hypothesized to arise from increasing (1870-1940) and decreasing (1970-2010) glacier contribution to streamflow over the past century.
Discipline: Geography
Date added: 2017-04-11T21:12:35.099Z

Title: Climate change adaptation for British Columbia Forest and Range Ecosystems : an analysis of existing research frameworks and research needs for the Future Forest Ecosystem Scientific Council (FFESC)
Contributors: Sybille S. Haeussler (author)
Abstract: "The report and its supplementary databases were initially prepared for FFESC in March 2009 to (1) identify institutional arrangements for delivering climate change adaptation research and making the results available to stakeholders, (2) assess the status of research relevant to the FFESC mandate, and (3) recommend research and delivery needs that should be addressed by FFESC ...The report provides an overview of international-to regional-level agencies and institutional networks conducting and funding climate change research relevant to BC's forest and rangeland social-ecological systems."--Executive summary.
Date added: 2015-09-30T23:00:50.468Z

Title: Late Holocene Glacier fluctuations in southernmost Patagonia.
Contributors: Malyssa Kay Maurer (author), Brian Menounos (Thesis advisor), University of Northern British Columbia (Degree granting institution)
Abstract: Documenting past climate dynamics aids in our understanding of the climate system. In order to assess future climate change it is valuable to examine the connectivity of climatic phenomena between hemispheres. Although studies that estimate past climate fluctuations are common in the Northern Hemisphere, fewer well-constrained glacier chronologies exist in the Southern Hemisphere. The assessment of past glacier activity remains the most direct method of creating a climatic record for a region, and the comparison of these glacial chronologies tests the synchronicity of climatic change between regions. This study investigates inter-hemispheric synchronicity by developing a detailed glacier history in southern Patagonia for comparison to robust glacier chronologies from the northwestern North America. Five Neoglacial advances of Stoppani Glacier in the Cordillera Darwin of southern Patagonia broadly correspond to the Neoglacial activity documented in northwestern North America. This Stoppani Glacier chronology is based on radiocarbon-dated detrital and in situ plant material contained within the northeastern lateral moraine stratigraphy. The age range from dated plant material records the first Neoglacial expansion of Stoppani Glacier which, overlaps with the end of the 4.2 ka Advance' reported throughout northwestern North America. Stoppani Glacier advanced multiple times between 3500-1900 cal yr BP which overlaps with the 'Peyto-Tiedemann Advance' documented in northwestern North America. The lacustrine record from nearby Lago Roca also suggests that local sea level lowered during the 3500-1900 cal yr BP period, resulting in the isolation of the lake from the Beagle Channel ca. 2300 cal yr BP. Plant material from within till at Stoppani Glacier and lacustrine sediments from Lago Roca yield an age range for the last advance of glaciers in the Cordillera Darwin the range coincides with the end of the wide-spread Little Ice Age Advance' documented throughout northwestern North
Discipline: Natural Resources & Environmental Studies
Date added: 2017-04-11T21:13:43.923Z

Title: Northern range limit mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak dynamics and climate interactions in mixed sub-boreal pine forests of British Columbia.
Contributors: Kathryn H. Hrinkevich (author), Kathy Lewis (Thesis advisor), University of Northern British Columbia (Degree granting institution)
Abstract: Insect outbreaks are some of the most destructive processes of forest change with long-term economic and ecological effects that can be severe. For native insects that have co-evolved with their host forests it is important to develop and implement management strategies that are consistent with the basic ecology of the ecosystem being affected. This requires a sound ecological understanding of the disturbance regime and its function, which can only be gained through long-term stand histories appropriate to the scale of the process. This is becoming increasingly important in light of changing climate conditions which have already influenced disturbance regimes and the spatial distribution of insect ranges with unknown consequences. The objectives of this study were to develop a long-term record of mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks near the northern limit of the species' range and to examine the interacting factors driving that disturbance regime. Using a combination of dendrochronological methods to reconstruct stand and outbreak history together with long-term local and large-scale climate data, I developed an integrated model of outbreak dynamics for north-central BC where little is known about the role of MPB in forest stand dynamics or the influence of climate on outbreak development. Using a 200-year outbreak reconstruction I determined that host susceptibility and mortality patterns had distinctly different characteristics than those described further south. Climate was more important than forest structure in determining outbreak frequency and severity, and persistent warm temperature anomalies, including the large-scale climate patterns driving these trends, were the most important direct climate drivers of outbreak development. Over short time scales, host stress preceded outbreaks, but long-term periods of vigorous tree growth were also important for outbreaks to develop. Differences between this study and others suggest that outbreak risk management and predictive models must consider regio
Discipline: Natural Resources & Environmental Studies
Date added: 2017-03-30T17:14:37.195Z

Title: Potential impacts of climate change in dry coastal ecosystems of British Columbia.
Contributors: Heather Klassen (author), Philip Burton (Thesis advisor), University of Northern British Columbia (Degree granting institution)
Abstract: Climate change is impacting forest ecosystems. Climatic envelopes were developed for dry coastal ecosystems and 18 diagnostic plant species in southwestern British Columbia to project current and future suitable climate space. Future projections suggest a northward shift for ecosystem and species, with a reduction in ecosystem climate space and variable results for species climate space. Results suggest that ecosystem climatic envelopes represent cumulative biological complexity and that the ecosystem-level processes and functions cannot be allocated among the species within the plant community. A monitoring network was established to improve understanding and to detect changes in climate, soil, and vegetation relationships, and hence the distribution of ecosystems and species, over time. Baseline summaries detect climatic differences between monitored ecosystems. This climatic envelope research provides a foundation for theoretical development and the field study provides site-specific datasets to improve our understanding of forest ecosystems and our ability to manage land and resources. --P. ii.
Discipline: Natural Resources & Environmental Studies
Date added: 2017-03-30T17:13:51.163Z

Title: Glacier change in the Cariboo Mountains of British Columbia, Canada (1946 -- 2011).
Contributors: Matthew J. Beedle (author), Brian Menounos (Thesis advisor), Roger Wheate (Thesis advisor), University of Northern British Columbia (Degree granting institution)
Abstract: This thesis is a five-chapter investigation of glacier change in the Cariboo Mountains of British Columbia. In chapter one I discuss the importance of glaciers, introduce the glaciers of the Cariboo Mountains, and outline the objectives and structure of this thesis. In chapter two I compare three methods to estimate annual glacier mass balance of a 9.6 km2 mountain glacier for years 2009, 2010, and 2011. I find two geodetic methods, real-time kinematic GPS (global positioning system) and photogrammetry, to provide a valuable measure of glacier-wide annual mass balance that is complementary to the glaciological method. In chapter three I reconstruct the terminus position of the same mountain glacier for the period 1959-2007 from a series of annual push moraines. Annual recession of this glacier, the longest record for a North American glacier, is controlled by air temperature during the ablation season and accumulation season precipitation during the previous decade. I demonstrate an immediate glacier terminus reaction to summer and annual mass balance and a delayed reaction to winter and annual balance. In chapter four I calculate dimensional change for 33 representative glaciers in the Cariboo Mountains for the latter half of the twentieth century. I show the period 1952-1985, when nine glaciers advanced, to be one of little net change for Cariboo Mountains glaciers. After 1985, however, rates of recession and thinning increased substantially. Comparison with climatological records reveals this marked change is due to both increased ablation season temperature and decreased accumulation season precipitation. I show glacier response to climate over this period to be highly variable and that relations between response and glacier morphometry are not consistent temporally. In chapter five I conclude this thesis with the progress gained through my research, study limitations, and the knowledge gaps that remain. Finally, I make 10 recommendations that will address knowledge gaps, and improve understanding of glacie
Discipline: Natural Resources & Environmental Studies
Date added: 2017-04-11T21:14:23.371Z

Title: Evaluation of climate predictability for multiple climate models at various time scales.
Contributors: Waqar Younas (author), Youmin Tang (Thesis advisor), University of Northern British Columbia (Degree granting institution)
Abstract: The predictability of the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern is evaluated on time scales from days to months using state-of-the-art dynamical multiple model ensembles including the Canadian Historical Forecast Project (HFP2) ensemble, the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual prediction (DEMETER) ensemble, and the Ensemble Based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts (ENSEMBLES). Some interesting findings in this study include (i) Multiple-model ensemble (MME) skill was better than skill from most of the individual models (ii) both actual prediction skill and potential predictability increased as the averaging time scale increased from days to months (iii) There is no significant difference in actual skill between coupled and uncoupled models, in contrast with the potential predictability where coupled models performed better than uncoupled models (iv) relative entropy (RE[subscript]A) is an effective measure in characterizing the potential predictability of individual predictions, whereas the mutual information (MI) is a reliable indicator of overall prediction skill (v) Compared with conventional potential predictability measures of the signal-to-noise ratio, the MI-based measures characterized more potential predictability when the ensemble spread varied over initial conditions. It is also confirmed that from monthly to seasonal time scales, the potential predictability of PNA is teleconnected with ENSO. The predictive skill on intra-seasonal time scales in the tropics is linked to Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJO). Using recently developed framework of potential predictability, information-based and ensemble based predictability measures were explored on multiple time scales for MJO predictability. Results show that there is no significant difference in the simulation of MJO in coupled (CanCM3) and uncoupled (GCM3) models. Both models simulated the tropical low frequency variability reasonably well compared with observations with some positive bias i
Discipline: Natural Resources & Environmental Studies
Date added: 2017-04-11T21:14:34.379Z

Title: An approach to remotely monitor glacier mass balance at seasonal to annual time scales, Columbia and Rocky Mountains, Canada
Contributors: Ben Mauri Pelto (author), Menounos Brian (thesis advisor), Matt Reid (chair), Shawn Marshall (committee member), Peter Jackson (committee member), Stephen Dèry (committee member), Roger Wheate (committee member), Gwenn Flowers (committee member), University of Northern British Columbia Natural Resources & Environmental Studies (Degree granting institution)
Abstract: My dissertation investigates glacier mass change in the Columbia and Rocky Mountains of British Columbia. In chapter one I discuss the importance of the cryosphere and glaciers, introduce the climate and glaciers of the study region, and outline the objectives and structure of this dissertation. Previous work established the feasibility of geodetic methods to accurately produce winter glacier mass balance and annual glacier mass balance. These studies demonstrate that geodetic surveys can be used to estimate mass balance during the accumulation season or for one glacier over a number of years. In chapter two, I refine these published methods to measure seasonal and annual mass balance for six glaciers within two mountain ranges from 2014–2018. I use synchronous field-based glaciological measurements, airbornelaser scanningsurveys (ALS) and satelliteimagery to quantify seasonal glacier mass change from 2014–2018. Chapter three reports on radar surveys I completed of the study glaciers, adding important observations to the global database of ice thickness. I use these observations and an existing flowline model, driven with observations of surface mass balance and glacier elevation to bias-correct ice thickness estimates for each glacier. Finally, I use the model to estimate ice thickness for all glaciers in the Columbia Basin and estimate total ice volume. Chapter four builds upon previous work which used surface topography, glacier mass balance, ice thickness, and ice velocity data to estimate ice flux at discrete glacier cross-sections. Previous efforts to infer the spatial distribution of mass balance have focused on glacier tongues. I expand upon this method, calculating surface mass balance between flux gates over the entire elevation range of three glaciers, over three years. I derive the altitude-mass balance relation and demonstrate that the relation can be accurately described with high-resolution elevation and ice flux data, and suggest that this method can be expanded for large-scale estimates. Chapter five summarizes the study’s major findings, highlights its limitations and discussed its broader implications. Finally, I make recommendations that will address knowledge gaps, and improve our understanding of changing glacier conditions and ability to model glacier dynamics.
Discipline: Natural Resources & Environmental Studies
Date added: 2020-11-23T23:57:46.676Z

Title: Lichens in the inland rainforest: Climate biomonitoring and population structure of Lobaria pulmonaria (L.) Hoffm.
Contributors: Asha Marie MacDonald (author), Darwyn Coxson (Thesis advisor), University of Northern British Columbia (Degree granting institution)
Abstract: Rapid climate change is predicted for British Columbia's Inland Temperate Rainforest (ITR). This research proposed that ITR lichens may be sensitive indicatorsof these changes and describes a climate biomonitoring protocol using arboreal lichen communities. Initial findings of 39macrolichen taxa are reported, including a number of rare species, such a Nephroma occultum Wetmore, N. isidiosum (Nyl.) Gyelnik, and Sticta oroborealis Goward & Tonsberg. Previous research suggests that the tripartite cyanolichen Lobaria pulmonaria (L.) Hoffm.is an important indicator species, however, little is known of its population dynamics in the ITR. In a retrospective study using dated branch segments, the size class distribution and reproductive status of L. pulmonariapopulations was measured on subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa Nutt.) and mountain alder (Alnus incana ssp. tenuifolia (Nutt.) Breitung)within ITR riparian zones.L. pulmonaria communities on fir and alder differed in many respects, especially in their total biomass, however, the number of thalli did not differ significantly between species along dated branch segments. Branch diameter was a significant predictor for the presence of reproductive thalli on subalpine fir, with branch age being a better predictor on mountain alder. Minimum generation times and maximum growth rates for L. pulmonaria in the ITR may be much faster than previously estimated elsewhere. --Leaf ii.
Discipline: Biology
Date added: 2017-03-30T17:11:58.493Z

Title: Reduced-rank sigma-point Kalman filter for geophysical data assimilation
Contributors: Manoj K. Kizhakkeniyil (author), Youmin Tang (Thesis advisor), Peter Jackson (Thesis advisor), University of Northern British Columbia (Degree granting institution)
Abstract: The main goal of my research was to develop a practical scheme for the sigma-point Kalman filter (SPKF) for its application in a realistic climate model. Large computational expense has been an obstacle to applying the SPKF to a high-dimensional system. I addressed this issue by developing an advanced SPKF data-assimilation system. My work also addressed several other factors related to the practical implementation of SPKF. The main objectives of this research were to: (i) investigate two methods to construct a reduced-rank sigma-point unscented Kalman filers (RRSPUKF) (ii) propose a localization scheme for the SPKF and (iii) implement RRSPUKF in a realistic climate model. I present two methods to approximate the error covariance by a reduced-rank approximation. In the first method, truncated singular-value decomposition (TSVD) is applied on the error-covariance matrix calculated in the data space (RRSPUKF(D)) while in the second method TSVD is applied on the error-covariance matrix calculated in the ensemble space (RRSPUKF(E)). The new algorithms are first tested on the Lorenz-96 model, a one-dimensional atmospheric '~toy' model. The performance of both rank-reduction methods are close to that of the full-rank SPKF. I propose a localization method for RRSPUKF(E). The results from numerical experiments on the Lorenz-96 model showed that when the localization and inflation were implemented, the optimal estimate was achieved with a finite number of sigma points. The realistic model I used in this study was the Zebiak-Cane (ZC) model, an intermediate complexity coupled El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction model. The RRSPUKFs are implemented for the ZC model with the assimilation of sea surface temperature anomalies. The results showed that both RRSPUKF(D and E) were able to correctly analyze the phase and intensity of all major ENSO events during the study period with relatively similar estimation accuracy. Furthermore, the RRSPUKF was compared against ensemble square-root filter (EnSR
Discipline: Natural Resources & Environmental Studies
Date added: 2017-03-29T17:28:05.137Z

Title: Deciphering the source of technological change: Greenhouse gas emission reductions in the British Columbia forest industry between 1990 and 2005.
Contributors: Kyle Aben (author), Ken Wilkening (Thesis advisor), University of Northern British Columbia (Degree granting institution)
Abstract: No abstract available.
Discipline: International Studies
Date added: 2017-03-30T17:02:48.263Z

Title: An analysis of multi-model ensemble for seasonal climate predictions.
Contributors: Xiaoqin Yan (author), Youmin Tang (Thesis advisor), University of Northern British Columbia (Degree granting institution)
Abstract: In this study, the superiorities of the super ensemble for seasonal climate prediction are investigated based on the 500mb geopotential height (GPH500) hindcasts produced by four Canadian seasonal climate prediction models. The investigations are cared out mainly in two aspects: i) a comprehensive evaluation of predictions for each grid over the global domain by the deterministic, probabilistic and potential prediction skill measures 2) the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and Maximum Signal-to-Noise (MSN) EOF analyses in the northern hemisphere (NH). It is found that improvements of the super ensemble are mainly due to the increase of ensemble size in the med-high latitudes, and the offsets of model uncertainties in the tropical regions. Measures of temporal correlation coefficient (COOR), the relative root mean square error (RRMSE), reliability (REL) are more affected by the ensemble size whereas resolution (RES) is sensitive to the offsets of model uncertainties. In addition, the super ensemble shows advantages in both EOF and MSN EOF analyses. The contributions of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) to the seasonal mean climate predictability are closely related to El Nińo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing. --P. ii.
Discipline: Natural Resources & Environmental Studies
Date added: 2017-03-30T17:09:58.071Z