ESTIMATION OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN USING AIRBORNE LASER ALTIMETRY AND EMPIRICAL MODELLING, COAST MOUNTAINS, B.C., CANADA by Sergio C. Vazquez Tagle Gallegos B. Eng., Autonomous University of the State of Hidalgo, 2018 THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA April 2024 © Sergio Vazquez Tagle Gallegos, 2024 Abstract This research aims to enhance scholarly understanding of snow dynamics, the remotely sensed snowpacks, and the calculation of basin-wide snow water equivalent in mountainous terrain. Mountain snow is a critical source of meltwater. However, forecasting snow distributions and total water equivalence in mountain basins is limited due to complex terrain, challenging environmental conditions, and lack of observations. Laser altimetry can provide detailed observations of snow depth, but an estimate of snow density is required to evaluate the total basin water equivalence. This study uses laser altimetry surveys and empirically modelled snow densities to estimate mountainous basin-wide snow-water equivalent (SWE). Between 2017 and 2020, seven laser altimeter surveys during late winter and spring were conducted in the LaJoie Basin, Coast Mountains, British Columbia (B.C.), a strategic hydroelectric power reservoir. The laser-derived snow depths averaged between 1.4 and 2.1 m for non-glacierized terrain, while glacierized terrain weighted averages ranged between 2.2 and 5.4 m. The laser-derived depths were combined with empirical snow density models to derive distributed SWE for the Lajoie Basin. Ten linear and three non-linear snow density empirical models were tested and developed, from which (a) a snow course multi-parameter, non-linear relation and (b) snow pillow robust (Huber loss) linear regressions yielded this study’s lowest root mean squared errors (51.65 and 74.12 kg m-3, respectively). For non-glacierized terrain, the multi-parameter, non-linear model produced basin-wide SWE averages between 0.56 and 1.06 m.w.e. and propagated uncertainties from ± 0.1 to ± 0.14 ii m.w.e. Conversely, glacierized terrain exhibited weighted SWE averages between 0.82 and 2.93 m.w.e., with estimates of uncertainty ranging from ± 0.31 to ± 0.52 m.w.e. The robust linear regressions yielded non-glacierized SWE averages from 0.49 to 0.92 m.w.e., with uncertainties between ± 0.14 and ± 0.2 m.w.e. The weighted SWE averages in glacierized terrain ranged between 0.77 and 1.92 m.w.e., with estimates of uncertainty between ± 0.29 and ± 0.45 m.w.e. The SWE estimates from lidar and modelled density are comparable to snow pillow observations at the watershed, which demonstrates the effectiveness of these coupled techniques and improves our forecasting capabilities. iii Table of Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................... ii Table of Contents .................................................................................................................. iv List of Tables ......................................................................................................................... vi List of Figures ....................................................................................................................... vii Acknowledgments .................................................................................................................. x 1. 2. 3. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Dissertation motivation ............................................................................................. 1 1.2. Thesis objectives and structure ................................................................................. 3 Literature Review .......................................................................................................... 4 2.1. Snow nature and metamorphism ............................................................................... 4 2.2. SWE in mountainous regions .................................................................................... 7 2.3. Laser altimetry for snow depth.................................................................................. 8 2.4. Empirical snow density modelling .......................................................................... 11 Study area and methods .............................................................................................. 13 3.1. Study area ................................................................................................................ 13 3.2. Snow depth: Lidar altimetry data ............................................................................ 17 3.2.1. Data acquisition ............................................................................................... 17 3.2.2. Trajectory processing ....................................................................................... 19 3.2.3. Point cloud projection and filtering ................................................................. 20 3.2.4. Bayesian alignment algorithms ........................................................................ 20 iv 3.2.5. Ice dynamics .................................................................................................... 21 3.2.6. Vertical uncertainty assessment ....................................................................... 22 3.3. 3.3.1. Observational data preprocessing .................................................................... 25 3.3.2. Existing empirical snow density models.......................................................... 30 3.3.3. Least squared regressions ................................................................................ 33 3.3.4. Multi-parameter, non-linear equation .............................................................. 35 3.3.5. Model uncertainty assessment ......................................................................... 36 3.4. 4. Basin-wide SWE estimations and uncertainty propagation .................................... 37 Results ........................................................................................................................... 40 4.1. Lidar data summaries .............................................................................................. 40 4.1.1. Snow depth over glaciers ................................................................................. 43 4.1.2. Vertical snow accumulation gradients ............................................................. 45 4.1.3. Orientation of snow depth ................................................................................ 46 4.1.4. Uncertainty assessment .................................................................................... 47 4.2. Snow density modelling .......................................................................................... 48 4.2.1. Previous empirical snow density models ......................................................... 48 4.2.2. Linear regression models from snow pillow data ............................................ 51 4.2.3. Snow course-derived linear regressions........................................................... 53 4.2.4. Multi-parameter, non-linear equation .............................................................. 55 4.2.5. Model evaluation and selection ....................................................................... 56 4.3. Snow water equivalent estimations ......................................................................... 59 4.3.1. Basin-wide summary ....................................................................................... 59 4.3.2. Point-based validation ...................................................................................... 66 4.4. 5. Snow density: empirical modelling ......................................................................... 24 Uncertainty propagation .......................................................................................... 69 Discussion...................................................................................................................... 77 5.1. Lidar-derived snow depth........................................................................................ 77 5.1.1. General observations ........................................................................................ 77 5.1.2. Comparative analysis of snow depth uncertainties .......................................... 78 5.2. Empirical snow density modelling .......................................................................... 79 v 5.2.1. Major findings .................................................................................................. 79 5.2.2. Comparative analysis of density modelling errors........................................... 80 5.3. Propagated basin-wide SWE and error ................................................................... 80 5.3.1. Major findings .................................................................................................. 80 5.3.2. Comparative analysis ....................................................................................... 81 5.4. Study limitations ..................................................................................................... 82 6. Conclusions ................................................................................................................... 86 7. References ..................................................................................................................... 90 8. Appendices .................................................................................................................... 98 List of Tables 3.1: Biogeoclimatic zones in the LaJoie, from MacKenzie & Meidinger (2018). ..................16 3.2: Lidar acquisition date, covered area, and point density. ..................................................18 3.3: Regression coefficients calibrated by Jonas et al. (2009) .................................................32 4.1: Minimum, maximum, median, and weighted average depth over glaciers. .....................43 4.2: Bias, standard deviation, and standard error identified through 24 pseudo-GCP. ...........47 4.3: Snow density model performance ....................................................................................57 4.4: Comparison of RMSE values for different sample sets ...................................................58 4.5: Non-glaciated terrain average snow depth (m.) and SWE (m.w.e) estimates ..................62 4.6: Average snow depth and SWE estimates weighted by glacier size .................................62 4.7: Integrated basin-wide SWE averages ...............................................................................62 4.8: Temporal distribution of the snow course observations by depth ....................................64 4.9: Snow pillow observations against SWE estimates (m.w.e.) with the snow course derived multi-parameter, non-linear snow density model. ......................................................67 vi 4.10: Pillow observations compared with SWE estimates (m.w.e) with the snow pillowderived robust linear regressions model. .................................................................................68 4.11: SWE uncertainty ranges from the snow course derived non-linear equation.................75 4.12: Modelled SWE uncertainty ranges with the snow pillow derived linear regression. .....76 List of Figures 2.1: The snow crystal morphology ............................................................................................. 5 2.2: Phase and wavelength differences lights ............................................................................. 9 2.3: Lidar parameters required for range measurements .......................................................... 10 2.4: Lidar-derived cloud point and underlying hillshaded terrain model. ................................ 11 3.1: Elevation, the Downton Lake, and the glacier coverage at the LaJoie Watershed, Coast Mountains, B.C. ........................................................................................................................ 13 3.2: Topographic slope within the LaJoie basin with the Downton Lake ................................ 14 3.3: Pixel frequency by terrain orientation in the LaJoie watershed ........................................ 15 3.4: Terrain orientation (i.e., aspect) in the LaJoie watershed. ................................................. 15 3.5: Biogeoclimatic zones in LaJoie ......................................................................................... 16 3.6: LaJoie watershed and lidar flight paths ............................................................................ 19 3.7: Reflectance colour-coded point cloud ............................................................................... 20 3.8: Same survey snow depth grids .......................................................................................... 21 3.9: Pseudo GCP and snow pillow locations in the study area ................................................. 23 3.10: Site selection for the pseudo ground control points. ....................................................... 23 3.11: Snow pillow and course locations ................................................................................... 26 3.12: Temporal distribution of provincial snow course samples .............................................. 27 vii 3.13: Provincial snow course density data ................................................................................ 28 3.14: Provincial snow course data spanning seven decades ..................................................... 29 3.15: Snow depth and density subsets ...................................................................................... 33 3.16: Linear regression performance after data filters .............................................................. 34 4.1: Lidar-derived snow depth over ice-free terrain. ................................................................ 41 4.2: Vertically corrected snow depth estimations ..................................................................... 42 4.3: Mean snow depth by survey, colour coded by survey. ...................................................... 43 4.4: Glacier polygons by their averaged snow depth; colour-coded by survey. ....................... 44 4.5: Vertical gradients of the observed snow depths at the LaJoie basin ................................. 45 4.6: Azimuthal distribution of snow depths in non-glacial portions of the basin ..................... 46 4.7: Observed snow densities compared to existing empirical snow density models .............. 49 4.8: Observed densities against model residuals; empirical snow density models................... 50 4.9: Observed snow densities compared to the snow pillow linear regression model ............. 51 4.10: Observed densities against model residuals; snow pillow linear regressions. ................ 52 4.11: Observed snow densities compared to the snow course linear regression ...................... 53 4.12: Observed densities against model residuals; snow course linear regressions. ................ 54 4.13: Observed snow densities compared to the non-linear equation model. .......................... 55 4.14: Observed densities compared to the model residuals from the non-linear equation. ...... 55 4.15: RMSE between the observed and the modelled snow densities ...................................... 57 4.16: Basin-wide SWE obtained with the non-linear equation density model ......................... 60 4.17: Basin-wide SWE from with the pillow-derived robust linear regressions ...................... 61 4.18: Mean snow water equivalent; multi-parameter, non-linear equation .............................. 63 4.19: Mean snow water equivalent; snow pillow derived robust linear regressions ................ 63 viii 4.20:Vertical gradient observed in the SWE estimates ............................................................ 65 4.21: Snow pillows at the LaJoie Basin. ................................................................................... 66 4.22: SWE observations compared to the non-linear model .................................................... 68 4.23: SWE observations compared to pillow linear regressions .............................................. 69 4.24: Snow course derived non-linear model – SWE uncertainty ............................................ 71 4.25: Snow course derived non-linear model – relative SWE uncertainty ............................... 72 4.26: Snow pillow derived robust linear regression model – SWE uncertainty ....................... 73 4.27: Snow pillow derived robust linear regression model – relative SWE uncertainty .......... 74 4.28: Histogram of SWE uncertainty in non-glacierized terrain; non-linear equation ............. 75 4.29: Histogram of SWE uncertainty in non-glacierized terrain; pillow-derived linear regressions................................................................................................................................. 76 5.1: Densification pattern recorded by two snow pillows in one snow season ........................ 84 ix Acknowledgments I have been no one, and I have worn many faces. I have been naïve, but I conquered many places. I felt looped in hell, disappeared like a small fish in a tank, and acted like less than another brick in the wall. The perfect song is framed with silence means you need darkness to appreciate the light. Things, however, look brighter when you put God in the center of your life. If you forget where the Sun is you can always ask the plants- our Mother watches over us all. I danced through the night, but my roots kept my feet on the ground. My parents Pichur and Pichon, my sisters Piscis and Peach, and my grandparents Mamita, Tito, Roi, Licha y el Gordito became my beacon of light. My aunties, cousins, and the Gallegos fam would never let me go astray: some say we have eyes everywhere. Birthright could not bring me here, but many opportunities created this path. The financial support from Mitacs, my employers, and my loved ones gave me the tools, but my mentors – Joseph Shea and Brian Menounos- taught me how to fight back. I’ll never know if they knew I was in hell, but they taught me to debate and respectfully disagree with my demons. They kept it up even in my most uncertain times and looked at my many rabbit holes with a smile and a potential way out. Three different North American instruments and just look at the symphony we made. I extend heartfelt gratitude to my esteemed committee members, Stephen Dery and Rita Winkler, whose wisdom linked my contributions to a sky full of stars. x I thank those who stayed, and I bless those who left; Life is an ever-changing wave. I thank my friends, and many many cats, for the reminders of who I am and for fueling my fire. I thank Adam, Anna, Georg, and Frank for lending me a hand with their countless insights. I thank Sara, Brayden, Fernanda, and Alejandra for offering me a roof, a meal, and a muchneeded tribe. I acknowledge the support from the Finance Department, while I thank my school for my students, the lessons, and the time. I am the third of my name, but the only one not in Mictlān. I long for my grandpa El Gallo or my most beloved Dr. Emmett Brown, but I dreamed of future times. I forgot what these stories look like, but I have my people, will, and hands. I will take any opportunities I have to enrich this tapestry of life. Here and now. Luckily for me, I live right inside the middle of the A of the Wonderland sign, and many peers have led me to fly. Bottled gratitude to Mrs. Yola, Josefina Casillas, Alberto Blanco, Edgar Uribe, Pam MacQuarrie, Patricia Montiel, and Rosa Maria Prol. Thanks for encouraging the most talkative and scattered student you’ve had. Hope and truth kept me through and made me finish this out of genuine love and lust for life. This is no trick of the light; I will try to keep on making us proud. I will learn, but I will, above all things, create. “The magic, the wonder, the mystery, and the innocence of a child’s heart are the seeds of creativity that will heal the world” (Jackson, 1993). I trust that water -from the oceans to the ice- will lure the fire of those willing to fight. xi 1. Introduction 1.1. Dissertation motivation Snow is a sensitive indicator of climatic fluctuations, affecting local, regional, and global climate. Ground snow affects the environment due to its high albedo, emissivity, and low thermal conductivity (Brun et al., 2013; Huss et al., 2017). The snow-covered area between Canada, Alaska, and Siberia reflects around two zettajoules of shortwave energy per year (Flanner et al., 2011), an equivalent to five thousand times the global energy consumption of 9 555 million tonnes of oil equivalent (International Energy Agency, 2018). Recent history trends suggest smaller snow cover duration and extent (Huss et al., 2017), progressively restricting the snow cover to mountainous terrain. Mapping mountainous snowpacks is essential for hydrological modelling, water availability forecasting, and efficient reservoir management. The estimated global mountain runoff (12,184 km3/year) contributes approximately 31% of the net freshwater discharge (38,136 km3/year; Meybeck et al., 2001). This resource is used to meet the operational requirements of hydroelectric reservoirs (International Energy Agency, 2018) and the needs of society. Furthermore, mountain snowpacks are critical to regulating water, temperature, nutrients, and sediment supply within mountainous watersheds. These ecosystems, in turn, support vital industries such as fishing, farming, and forestry (Huss et al., 2017). Accurate mountainous snow mapping becomes even more critical for climate modelling, forecasting, and risk management (Pigeon & Jiskoot, 2008; Viviroli et al., 2007). The escalating risks posed by the progressive tropospheric warming shown by ice cores, 1 thinner snowpacks and in-situ observations (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014) lead to higher hazard incidence, losses over the cryosphere and irreversible ecological and economic damage (Lutz & Howarth, 2015). The decline in Arctic sea ice, snow cover, and the associated rise in methane emissions have imposed a cumulative cost on society of between $7.5 and $93 trillion (Euskirchen et al., 2013). These impacts manifest themselves through global sea levels, hemispheric circulation patterns, and the global efficiency to reflect solar radiation. Accurate assessments of snowpack volumes and fluctuations enhance water allocation, climate modelling, forecasting, and risk management efforts. Understanding the spatial distribution of mountain snowpack dynamics is essential for effective climate change adaptation strategies. Laser altimetry, paired with estimates of snow density, provides viable alternatives to fulfill snow mapping needs, particularly in areas lacking a snow observation network (Deems et al., 2013). These advanced techniques can characterize mountainous snowpacks and estimate basin-wide snow water content (SWE). Leveraging these innovative approaches helps us better understand hydrologic dynamics, enhance current resource management practices, and adapt to the challenges posed by changing environmental conditions (Pigeon & Jiskoot, 2008). A comprehensive mountainous snow mapping opens possibilities for research and facilitates informed decisionmaking processes. 2 1.2. Thesis objectives and structure The motivation of this study is to develop and assess methods to estimate basin-wide SWE and its uncertainty in a glacierized watershed in southern British Columbia. The steps required to complete this task include: 1. Acquiring and processing airborne lidar data. 2. Developing and testing empirical models of snow density. 3. Calculating distributed SWE and its associated uncertainties. The first Chapter of this dissertation establishes its relevance and structure. Chapter 2 provides a concise review of relevant literature. Chapter 3 describes the study area, data, and methods employed. Chapter 4 details the results from the lidar analysis, the empirical density modelling, and the basin-wide SWE propagation, while Chapter 5 discusses and interprets these findings. Finally, Chapter 6 offers extensive conclusions, acknowledges limitations, and suggests further research directions. The appendices contain specific ground control points, glacier extents, snow pillows, and course data locations used in this study. 3 2. Literature Review 2.1. Snow nature and metamorphism Snow consists of ice crystals formed in the atmosphere that precipitate and accumulate in snow columns to form a snowpack. A snowpack is constituted of snow and pores that contain air and water vapour, reaching a three-phase system once melt conditions are reached. Atmospheric conditions and suspended particles determine the nature of the initial snow crystals. The snow requires the collision of thermally contrasting moist masses of air. Warm air masses get colder as they are lifted upward, allowing water droplets to condense. The water droplets may reach a supercooled state by remaining liquid below 0 °C to nearly 40 °C. The supercooled droplets eventually evaporate, but any suspended particles in the atmosphere serve as a solid surface from which one droplet can freeze. The freezing temperature depends on the suspended dust particle, but it starts generally with temperatures colder than -6 °C. A frozen droplet starts to attract water vapour, leading to surface deposition. The deposition of the surrounding vapour forms a crystal-lattice structure fed by water vapour, i.e., a snowflake (Figure 2.1; Libbrecht, 2005). 4 Figure 2.1: The snow crystal morphology against water content and temperature. From Libbrecht (2005) The snow crystal array and the water, air, vapour, and ice content determine the snowpack density. Snow stability is also influenced by its crystal nature, with weakly bonded crystals contributing to unstable layers and the risk of avalanches. Additionally, complexshaped crystals (such as dendrites) tend to have more surface area and capture more air and moisture (Dingman, 2002). Typical densities of freshly fallen snow range from 30 to 300 kg m -3. The wind may break snowflakes and pack them into dense layers, but it can otherwise be steady enough to allow for interstitial pores. Generally, higher temperatures and wind speeds lead to denser snowpacks than colder and more stable conditions (McKay & Findlay, 1971; Verschuren, 1972). 5 On a seasonal scale, snow metamorphism occurs from the snowflake deposition until the snow completely melts. There are four different mechanisms for snow metamorphism (Dingman, 2002): • Gravitational settling. Whenever the snowpack accumulates more snow, the overlying stress of the snow column progressively increases. Gravitational settling can increase density from 2 to 50 kg m-3 daily (Anderson & States, 1976). • Destructive metamorphism. Variations in vapour pressure over convex and concave snow surfaces lead to destructive metamorphism. In convex surfaces, higher vapour pressures lead to sublimation. The moisture is deposited over concave surfaces, leading to progressively denser and more spherical grains over time (Dingman, 2002). This metamorphism can increase the snow density by 1% per hour, but it becomes negligible whenever densities exceed 250 kg m-3 (Anderson & States, 1976). Often, this metamorphism can only be found in fresh snow (Dingman, 2002). • Constructive metamorphism. If the snow grains connect through sintering, a snowpack’s effective porosity will be reduced. For greater distances, the temperature gradients within the snowpack may cause sublimation at warmer portions and deposition in colder parts, leading to changes in the snowpack density. • Melt metamorphism. Melt metamorphism is caused by liquid water added to the snowpack. The thaw at the surface level or any percolated rain can cause layers of solid ice across the snowpack once frozen. Additionally, changes in the mean grain size may result from adding water, either by dissolving them or increasing their size. 6 All metamorphism processes lead to a progressive increase in density throughout the season. Snow metamorphism largely depends on atmospheric conditions; the same area may witness different snowpack properties over the years, but other parts of a watershed will simultaneously undergo comparable metamorphism (Dingman, 2002). 2.2. Snow in mountainous regions Snow accumulates in a watershed through precipitation and is redistributed by wind or gravity. The total snowfall a watershed may receive largely depends on the regional climate, latitude, and continentality. In mountain watersheds, wind redistribution and avalanching cause much of the spatial heterogeneity in snow depths and SWE (Elder et al., 1991; Vionnet et al., 2021). Snow ablation refers to the loss of snow through melting, sublimation, and erosion and is controlled by radiative and energy exchanges between the snow and the atmosphere. Shortwave and longwave radiation are the principal radiative inputs that must be considered for SWE losses, followed by turbulent energy exchanges (Dozier et al., 1988). Within a mountainous watershed, the forest cover significantly influences snow accumulation and ablation rates (Varhola et al., 2010). In forested areas, snow accumulation may be reduced by up to 40%, and the snowmelt rates are up to 70% lower than nearby reference sites. The reduced accumulation can be attributed to the dense canopy, which intercepts up to 60% of the snowfall, from which up to 40% gets sublimated (Hedstrom & Pomeroy, 1998; Pomeroy et al., 1998). 7 The ablation rates are largely dependent on a snowpack’s energy budget. While canopy cover prevents shortwave radiation from reaching the surface and reduces wind speed, effectively minimizing the sensible and latent heat fluxes (Boon, 2009; Teti, 2008). In both forested and open alpine areas, diurnal melt can percolate the snowpack and refreeze, directly altering snow density and depth but not the SWE. In contrast, if an ice lens is created at the surface level, the snow beneath can melt or displace, keeping a seemingly constant snow depth (from ground level up to the recrystallized layer) but affecting the density and SWE (Elder et al., 1991). Therefore, these magnitudes must be accounted for independently. 2.3. Laser altimetry for snow depth The Light Detection and Ranging (Lidar) technique is a remote-sensing technology that emits a photon and measures the time difference between the time of emission and its return to the sensor after being reflected from a surface. Laser light differs from white light because of its (a) temporal coherence – the light is composed of a single colour; and because of (b) its spatial coherence - all light waves are sent in the same phase (Figure 2.2; Csele, 2004). 8 Figure 2.2: Phase and wavelength differences between white (a), monochromatic (b) and laser (c) lights. From Csele (2004). The polarized light produces intense, focused beams of light that are powerful enough to reach the surface and be reflected. The intensity of the reflection may be used to characterize the nature of the surface (NOAA, 2012), while the distance to the surface is estimated through the time of flight. A photon’s time of flight changes with different atmospheric densities, making it necessary to account for local atmospheric conditions (air humidity or pressure). The return times also depend on the sensor-specific force, angular rate, and orientation. Thus, the scan angle, platform altitude, beam divergence, and swath width must be known to transform the laser returns into altitudinal data (Figure 2.3; Deems et al., 2013). 9 Figure 2.3: Lidar parameters required for range measurements (R); platform height (h); beam divergence (γ); laser spot footprint (AL); swath width (SW) and amplitude (q). From Deems et al. (2013). The return times are processed with an inertial measurement unit (IMU) to correct positional and atmospheric biases. The data is processed through a differential global positioning system (GPS) triangulation to assign each measured distance into a fixed elevation on a coordinate system (Deems et al., 2013), creating a cloud of points representing every reflected surface (Figure 2.4; Painter et al., 2016). 10 Figure 2.4: Lidar-derived cloud point and underlying hillshaded terrain model. Modified from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coastal Services (2012). Once classified, a cloud point is interpolated to create a terrain surface or digital elevation model (DEM). Estimating the snow depth requires subtracting a bare-earth DEM from a snow-covered DEM, as the snowpacks can be interpreted as changes in the surface elevation above sea level (Deems et al., 2013). To difference a snow lidar dataset from a bare-earth model, both datasets must be coregistered to remove bias (Nuth & Kääb, 2011) since horizontal offsets may compromise the snow depth values. 2.4. Empirical snow density modelling Lidar snow depth grids must be paired with an estimate of snow density to estimate snow water equivalence. In situ observations of snow density are sparse and can be challenging 11 to estimate over large areas (Frei et al., 2012). As an alternative, physical or empirical models can be used for snow density estimation (Pistocchi, 2016). While physically based models rely on fundamental physics laws and could be applied to any watershed, the models often require specific variables such as wind speed, air temperature or relative humidity. Most snow-covered areas lack a dense enough network of sensors to retrieve these atmospheric parameters (McCreight & Small, 2014; Pistocchi, 2016). Empirical snow density models, in contrast, rely on observations such as historical snow depth, SWE information, and even simple meteorological factors. Sturm et al. (2010) and Pelto (2020) contrast historic SWE against their snow depth counterpart, thus inferring the snow density. Shea (2010) developed a model for snow density based on accumulated positivedegree days, accounting for progressive snow metamorphism. Empirical snow density models may not be transferrable between regions, so empirical models should be tested and calibrated with region-specific data. 12 3. Study area and methods Repeat lidar surveys from the LaJoie watershed, Gold Bridge, British Columbia, were processed into vertically and horizontally corrected digital elevation models and snow depth grids. The basin-wide snow depth grids are paired with provincially calibrated empirical snow density models to produce SWE estimations. The uncertainty in the SWE estimations was propagated from the snow depth and snow density-independent and random errors. 3.1. Study area Located in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia, the Lajoie watershed spans 962.5 km2 (Figure 3.1). The watershed consists of a partially glacierized landscape (183 km2 or 19.01%; Appendix B) between 800 and 2400 m.a.s.l. Figure 3.1: Elevation, the Downton Lake (black central polygon), and the glacier coverage (hatched blue polygons) at the LaJoie Watershed, Coast Mountains, B.C. (UTM 10N; ESPG:32610). These glacier polygons were used in this study and were extracted from the Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI Consortium, 2017). 13 The watershed is partially glacierized alpine terrain marked by pronounced elevation gradients, with altitudes ranging from 1000 to 2000 m within less than 1 km. (Figure 3.2). The seasonal runoff from this watershed ultimately flows to Downton Reservoir, which is part of the provincial hydroelectric power generation network. Figure 3.2: Topographic slope within the LaJoie Basin with the Downton Lake (black) The predominant terrain orientation is towards the NE-E direction, with the fewest slopes facing toward the W-NW direction (Figures 3.3 and 3.4). 14 Figure 3.3: Pixel frequency (Millions of 5 m pixels) by terrain orientation in the LaJoie watershed from a bare earth terrain model generated from lidar data. Figure 3.4: Terrain orientation (i.e., aspect) in the LaJoie watershed. Beneath the treeline, the forests consist of montane trees, primarily Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir. The watershed’s alpine terrain is considered Interior Mountain heather, 15 reflecting cold continental conditions with abundant moisture and snowfalls (Table 3.1, Figure 3.5; MacKenzie & Meidinger, 2018). Figure 3.5: Biogeoclimatic zones in LaJoie, from MacKenzie & Meidinger (2018). Table 3.1: Biogeoclimatic zones in the LaJoie, from MacKenzie & Meidinger (2018). BGC ID Zone name ESSF Engelmann Spruce-Subalpine Fir MS Montane Spruce Subzone Subzone description Area (km2) dv Dry Very Cold 119.75 xvp Very Dry, Very Cold Parkland 0.18 xv Very Dry Very Cold 0.02 dvw Dry, Very Cold Parkland 130.58 mw Moist Warm 17.12 dvp Dry, Very Cold Parkland 258.03 mwp Moist Warm Parkland 0.02 mw Moist Warm 40.42 dc Dry Cold 62.01 CMA Coastal Mountain-heather Alpine unp Undifferentiated and Parkland 2.48 IMA Interior Mountain-heather Alpine unp Undifferentiated and Parkland 0.09 un Undifferentiated 283.58 IDF Interior Douglas-Fir xc Very Dry Cold 2.22 dc Dry Cold 44.91 un Undifferentiated 1.10 BAFA Boreal Altai Fescue Alpine 16 The Downton Lake is the uppermost hydroelectric reservoir on the Bridge River. The lake has a surface of nearly 2400 ha with a maximum and mean depth of 80 and 30 m, respectively. The Downton Lake acts as a seasonal reservoir since a) the mean water residence time is 6.3 months, and b) the lake acts as the leading supplier for the adjacent La Joie hydroelectric dam (Hirst, 1991). The hydrologic resources of the basin are regulated by BC Hydro for hydroelectric production. The Lajoie Dam was finished by 1957 with an installed capacity of 22 MW, generating an average of 170 GWh/year (Hirst, 1991). This installed capacity satisfies 0.22% of the energy consumed in the province as of 2017 (National Energy Board, 2019). 3.2. Snow depth: Lidar altimetry data Laser-altimetry surveys of a mountainous watershed in British Columbia were processed into digital elevation models (DEMs) to reflect acquisition dates between 2017 and 2020. 3.2.1. Data acquisition Eleven surveys (Table 3.2) were conducted with a Riegl 780 infrared (1064 nm) laserscanning system mounted on a fixed-wing aircraft (Nolan et al., 2015; Painter et al., 2016). 17 Table 3.2: Lidar acquisition date, covered area, and point density. Survey date (year/month/day) 2017-09-22 Watershed coverage (%) 47 Point density (Per m2) 1.50 2017-09-27 60 1.47 2017-05-04 52 0.87 2017-05-07 56 0.60 2018-02-19 100 1.48 2018-04-22 100 1.02 2019-03-18 100 1.05 2019-04-30 49 1.03 2019-05-04 55 1.11 2020-03-09 100 1.02 2020-05-10 100 1.03 The acquisition dates were chosen to quantify the snow depth during snow accumulation and melt seasons, aiming to measure the maximum snow depth every year. Acquisition dates additionally depended on suitable flying conditions, optimizing safety, and minimizing atmospheric humidity, a common cause of lidar noise. Logistical considerations (equipment malfunction or aircraft maintenance) sometimes required two-day surveys (Table 3.2). The atmospheric conditions at the time of the survey were obtained from the nearest weather stations (e.g., Pemberton, Lillooet). The aircraft’s position and roll, pitch and yaw were recorded with an Applanix POS AV Global Navigation Satellite (GNSS) device and with an inertial navigation (IMU) system, coincident with the laser scans (Deems et al., 2013). The IMU trajectory was recorded in WGS84 ellipsoidal height. 18 3.2.2. Trajectory processing The aircraft’s trajectory was post-processed with RiPROCESS 1.8.2 software (RIEGL Laser Measurement Systems GmbH, 2017) and the Applanix PP-RTX software. Neither ground GPS stations nor field measurements were required as these devices triangulate their positions through a satellite system. After the aircraft's position triangulation, the aircraft's position achieved error ranges below 0.05 m. The corrected positions were projected into a continuous trajectory line (Figure 3.6). Figure 3.6: LaJoie watershed and lidar flight paths, April 2018 survey. Darker line: Vancouver to Pemberton, surveying half the watershed. Brighter line: return flight following the same path. 19 The aircraft’s post-processed flight trajectory and roll, pitch and yaw are stored in a series of Position & Orientation (POF) files and later used to produce the laser point clouds. 3.2.3. Point cloud projection and filtering At this stage, and before creating a gridded array, the point clouds contained artifacts where the laser pulse interacted with features not associated with a surface, such as water vapour, smoke, birds, or insects (Figure 3.7). Figure 3.7: Reflectance colour-coded point cloud after applying a -12 dB reflectance filter (Yellow indicates noise). Manual cleaning was required for the heavily noised 2017-May 7th survey. Noise was identified and removed using a threshold based on the intensity of a given laser return. Trial and error identified this lower threshold between -12 and -15 dB depending on a given survey. Noise can also be a by-product of inexistent “erroneously reflected” beams (Figure 3.7). As a result, manual noise filtering was also necessary. 3.2.4. Bayesian alignment algorithms The lidar point clouds were paired with their corrected flight trajectories and orthogonally corrected positions (POF files) to perform a ‘Bayes alignment.’ This process 20 involves a series of Bayesian adaptive sequence alignment algorithms that identify and minimize the vertical differences between overlapping LAS flight lines (e.g., Figure 3.6; Jalobeanu et al., 2014; BayesMap Solutions LLC., 2020). The Bayesian alignment eliminated systematic bias caused by vertical or horizontal offsets between subsequent flight lines. These offsets can arise, for example, due to acquisitions that occur over multiple days (Figure 3.8). Figure 3.8: Same survey snow depth grids: a) Unaligned and b) Bayesian aligned. Misalignment disrupts continuity in (a). These images show vertically uncorrected values (section 3.2.6). After the flight line alignment, each dataset was exported into a Digital Elevation Model. For uniformity, all surveys were exported into a Universal Transverse Mercator projection (UTM 10N; ESPG:32610) with a spatial resolution of 5 m. 3.2.5. Ice dynamics Snow depths cannot be calculated on individual glacierized pixels due to glacier dynamics, which redistribute mass from high elevations to low elevations. However, the effect 21 of submergence or emergence is zero when integrated over a glacier surface (Mortezapour et al., 2020; Pelto et al., 2019). Thus, the average snow depth of an individual glacier can be calculated considering negligible ice loss. Based on the Randolph Glacier Inventory 6.0 (Appendix A; RGI Consortium, 2017), there are 104 unique glaciers for the Lajoie. These polygons delimit the average snow depth for each survey over the glacierized terrain. 3.2.6. Vertical uncertainty assessment Standard co-registration (Nuth & Kääb, 2011) uses bare-earth datasets and compares their aspect and slope to remove elevation biases. However, the slope of a snow-covered model differs from the underlying bare earth because of unevenly distributed snow (by gravity, wind, or ablation). Thus, snow-covered scenes cannot be co-registered with bare-earth scenes. Instead, a vertical bias can be estimated by finding snow-free pixels in all scenes and using these as pseudo-ground control points to correct the elevation bias. Once vertically corrected, one summer survey (bare-earth DEM) was subtracted from all the winter surveys to yield basinwide snow depth grids. Elevation models should reveal no vertical differences in stable, snow-free terrains such as ridges, mountain peaks or wind-swept locations. Multispectral scenes from Landsat-7 OLI and Sentinel2 were used to identify 24 (Figure 3.9) snow-free sites in the watershed. The supervised selection of points (pers. comm, B. Menounos) prioritized a distributed number of pseudo-GCP within the watershed (Appendix A and Figure 3.10). 22 Figure 3.9: Pseudo GCP and snow pillow locations in the study area. Sentinel-2 (ESA) image courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey. Figure 3.10: Site selection for the pseudo ground control points. For each of the 24 pseudo ground control points, the median elevation among all surveys was used as the reference elevation. The elevation bias of each survey was then 23 calculated as the median difference between the reference elevations and the measurements of the individual study. The standard error of the elevation biases is used here as a conservative estimate of the snow depth uncertainty. A negative bias indicates that the pseudo-GCP heights are below the reference median elevation. 3.3. Snow density: empirical modelling The densification of a snowpack is influenced by several energy and precipitation factors including, but not limited to, soil and landcover properties, precipitation mass, air temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, and incoming long and shortwave radiation (Hedrick et al., 2018). The main downside inherent to physically based models comes from the availability of the required inputs since most snow-covered areas often lack a densely enough network of sensors to retrieve them (McCreight & Small, 2014; Pistocchi, 2016). Practical observations show that the range of observed snow depths is greater than the bulk density counterpart (Steppuhn, 1976). Consequently, modelling the conservative parameter (snow density) and measuring the dynamic parameter (snow depth), is perhaps the most practical and potentially accurate way to calculate SWE without enough energy, vegetative or precipitation observations (Sturm et al., 2010). Three different approaches were used to empirically estimate snow densities, which are then used to calculate SWE for each non-glacierized grid point, average snow depths and SWE for each glacier, and a basin-wide SWE value. The first snow density approach consists of previously published empirical models (Hill et al., 2019; Jonas et al., 2009; Pistocchi, 2016). 24 The second approach estimates snow density on the date of each survey through a least square regression from synchronous provincial observations, as in Pelto et al. (2019) and Sturm et al. (2010). The third approach uses local data to fit five parameters in a non-linear equation created to represent physical processes of snow densification from the start of the season to the date of maximum snowmelt. All density estimation approaches were validated with provincial snow course and pillow data. The root mean squared error (RMSE) between the modelled and observed snow density was used to determine the error in snow density. 3.3.1. Observational data preprocessing The empirical snow density models require calibration with local data to maintain regional representability. The observational data relevant to this study comprises the snow pillow network and the historic snow course measurements available from the Province of British Columbia (Figure 3.11). 25 Figure 3.11: Snow pillow and course locations (BC, 2021b, 2021a). Yellow boxes contain coordinates in WGS 1984 (EPSG: 4326). Axis ticks represent UTM 10N zone limits (EPSG: 32610). Provincial snow course data are manual observations of SWE and snow depth (Province of British Columbia, 2021b) collected at specific locations since 1933. Snow course observations are sampled monthly or bi-monthly between late December to June (Figure 3.12) 26 Figure 3.12: Temporal distribution of provincial snow course samples (BC, 2021b). The x-axis shows 30-day intervals. For data consistency, the snow depth (cm) and the water equivalent (mm) were converted into meters to estimate snow density (Equation 3.1). ߩ‫= ݓ݋݊ݏ‬ (ߩ‫)ܧܹܵ ∗ ݎ݁ݐܽݓ‬ ‫ݐ݌݁݀ ݓ݋݊ݏ‬ℎ (3.1) Snow density values beyond three standard deviations from the snow course density mean (57.1 – 613.6 kg m-3; Figure 3.13) were considered outliers and removed from the dataset. This criterion was also applied to the snow pillow dataset. 27 Figure 3.13: Provincial snow course density data, colour-coded by 1, 2, and 3 sigma thresholds (BC, 2021a). A preliminary analysis of the snow density data (Figure 3.14) shows the expected seasonal increase in snow density from January to May. This analysis uses observations from across the province. The data show no noticeable changes in the rate of snow densification between decades, so simple empirical snow density models based on the day of the year may be helpful. 28 Figure 3.14: Provincial snow course data spanning seven decades (BC, 2021a). Continuous lines: decadal median snow density. Dashed lines: interquartile ranges. To have a suitable timeframe, the snow course dataset was reduced to match the earliest snow pillow observations available (October 10, 2003) up to a week after the last lidar survey (Appendix C) May 20, 2020; n= 11,230). Half of the samples were randomly chosen for model calibration (section 3.3.3 and 3.3.4; n= 5615), while the remaining values were used as a validation dataset (section 3.3.5; n= 5615). The provincial automated snow pillows (Automated Snow Weather stations, ASWS) were also used for model calibration (section 3.3.3; section 3.3.4). ASWS records hourly air temperature, snow depth, SWE, and other variables. ASWS snow density data were retrieved from the Aquarius Time-Series database (Province of British Columbia, 2021a), filtered for outliers, and pre-processed into a format compatible with the snow density models and snow course data. 29 For the snow density calculations and model development, ASWS sites with SWE and depth (Appendix D) entries were retained. Hourly snow depth (cm) and water equivalent (mm) entries were converted into meters. The snow pillow temporal resolution was then reduced by averaging the snow depth and water equivalent by date so the snow pillow timestamp (year-month-day hour: minute: second; UTC) matches the snow course observations format (year-month-day). After the stations were merged, the data frame was transposed, maintaining the date column for chronologic subsetting. The snow density was estimated from the average daily snow depth and SWE following Equation 3.2. With data from 51 stations, a daily-averaged dataset from October 10, 2003, to May 20, 2020 (n=142,451) was assembled. This timespan includes entries since the earliest snow pillow observations were available up to a week after the last lidar survey used in this study. 3.3.2. Existing empirical snow density models The first approach aimed to evaluate published empirical models to estimate snow density. Three models that use time and elevation are examined here (Jonas et al., 2009; Pistocchi, 2016; Hill et al., 2019) and tested with their calibrated parameters. Hill et al. (2019) The SWE model developed by Hill et al. (2019) was derived from telemetric and field data from British Columbia and the western United States. Most of the dataset was provided 30 by the Natural Resources Conservation Service in the United States and the Automated Snow Weather Stations operated by the Water Management Branch of British Columbia. The model proposed by Hill et al. (2019) uses a linear equation to estimate SWE from snow depth (h) and the number of days (DOY) since October 1st, which represents the beginning of the snow season. This model (Equation 3.2) uses two different densification parameters during accumulation (SWEacc) and the ablation (SWEabl) periods, which are identified by the day of peak SWE (DOYp): 1 1 ܹܵ‫( · ܿܿܽܧܹܵ = ܧ‬1 − tan ℎ [0.01{‫ ܻܱܦ‬− ‫ )]} ܻܱܲܦ‬+ ܹܵ‫( · ݈ܾܽܧ‬1 + tan ℎ [0.01{‫ ܻܱܦ‬− ‫)]} ܻܱܲܦ‬ 2 2 (3.2) The SWE values modelled through the Hill et al. (2019) equation were converted into snow densities to compare with other models used in this study. Pistocchi et al. (2016) The model proposed by Pistocchi et al. (2016) estimates the snow density based on the depth and the number of days since the start of the snow season (defined as November 1 in this study). The simple regression and its coefficients were derived from 16 telemetric stations operated by the Autonomous Province of Bolzano in the Italian Alps. The equation provided by Pistocchi et al. (2016) suggests an initial snow density (ρ0) of 200 kg m-3 and an initial densification rate (K) of 1 kg m-3 per day. The densification parameter multiplies the days since November 1st, which is assumed to be the start of the snow year (DOY). This equation describes the observed densification pattern shown by snow samples (Equation 3.3). 31 (3.3) ߩ‫ߩ = ݓ݋݊ݏ‬0 + ‫ ܻܱܦ(ܭ‬+ 61) Jonas et al. (2009) The equation provided by Jonas et al. (2009) estimates snow density from snow depth and two additional variables: altitude and time-dependent coefficients (Equation 3.4). The model was produced from 36 snow telemetry stations operated by the WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research in Switzerland: (3.4) ߩ‫ݐ݌݁݀ ݓ݋݊ݏ ∗ ܽ = ݓ݋݊ݏ‬ℎ + ܾ Coefficients a and b are fitted for three different elevation ranges and months during the accumulation season (Table 3.3). Table 3.3: Regression coefficients calibrated by Jonas et al. (2009; Equation 3.4) Elevation between 0 and 1400 m.a.s.l. a b Jan Feb Mar April May JuneOct. Nov Dec 235 31 279 9 333 3 347 25 413 19 0 0 149 37 201 26 Nov Dec 149 37 201 26 Nov Dec 149 37 201 26 Jan a b 235 31 Jan a b 235 31 Elevation between 1400 and 2000 m.a.s.l. JuneFeb Mar April May Oct. 279 9 333 3 347 25 413 19 0 0 Elevation between 2000 and 3000 m.a.s.l. JuneFeb Mar April May Oct. 279 9 333 3 347 25 32 413 19 0 0 3.3.3. Least squared regressions Provincial snow pillow and snow course observations of snow depth and SWE were used to create least squares regression models between density and snow depth, a relation explored by Pelto et al. (2019). Robust and ordinary least-square regressions were used to describe the snow behaviour at a regional scale on any given day (Figure 3.15). Figure 3.15: Snow depth and density subsets (March 05, 2019) from the snow pillow and snow course observations. Data outliers can drastically bias the estimators of a least square regression (Rousseeuw & Leroy, 1987). Thus, once the chronologic subsets were retrieved (Figure 3.16a), the density values beyond historically typical values (57.1 – 613.6 kg m-3; section 3.3.1; Figure 3.16b) and statistical outliers within the subset (values beyond a 3-sigma score; Figure 3.16c) were removed from the analysis. 33 Figure 3.16: Linear regression performance after data filters: a) unfiltered, positive data b) filtered by density range, c) values within three sigma score. This real-time data subset (2020-03-08) needed data filters to be trusted. Navy line: Ordinary least squares regression. Aquamarine line: Robust Huber loss least square regression. With each subset, both an ordinary least square regression and a robust Huber’s Mestimator least square regression (Huber, 1973) were used to retrieve a density slope from snow depth and SWE, following Pelto et al. (2019) and Jonas et al. (2009). Linear regressions (Equation 3.5) predict a certain amount (p) of unknown parameters (θ1, …, θp) from observations (x1, …, xn) with correlation (Equation 3.6). A regression equation requires coefficients (cij) and close-to-evenly distributed independent random errors (Ui) to make estimates. ‫݌‬ ‫ = ݅ݔ‬෍ ݆ =1 ݆ܿ݅ ∗ ߠ݅ + ܷ݅ (3.5) Regression estimators were retrieved from the snow depth and SWE datasets through ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions, i.e., by minimizing the sum of the squared distance between the prediction line and the observations. OLS regressions, however, assume the absence of data outliers, impacting the regression estimators and unevenly distributed residuals (Rasheed et al., 2014). 34 Instead, the robust least squares (RLS) regressions require weights on their estimators to enhance the predictions. The Huber loss function considers the mean squared error function and the absolute value, proposes a tuning constant (k = 1.345σ) for maximum estimator likelihood in ordinary cases, and offers protection against outliers. The ordinary and robust linear squares regressions were calculated from the calibration datasets through the openly available Python and shell scripts compiled by Seabold and Perktold (2010). This snow density estimation scales density as a function of snow depth and can be used directly with lidar-derived snow depth data. 3.3.4. Multi-parameter, non-linear equation The third approach to estimating snow density uses a non-linear relation that expects snow density to increase with depth and cumulative shortwave radiation. The proposed model (Equation 3.6) uses five tuning parameters, snow depth and the DOY, to model snow density. The parameters were fitted to provincial snow course data. The empirical function was built assuming that the most critical factors controlling snow density are the weight of the snow (snow depth) and energy transfers to the snowpack from sensible heat (air temperature) and shortwave radiation. 1 ߩ‫݌ = ݓ݋݊ݏ‬1 + ‫ݐ݌݁݀ ݓ݋݊ݏ‬ℎ ∗ ‫݌‬2 + ‫݌‬3 ∗ ݁ ቀ−2‫݌‬5 2 (‫ܻܱܦ‬−‫) ݌‬2 ቁ 4 (3.6) The relation between snow depth and density was assumed to be linear, whereas the connection between density and energy inputs depends on the day of year. The coefficients in Equation 3.6 were fitted using initial estimates for minimum density (p1 = 197 kg m-3), the direct snow depth and density relation (p2 = 9 kg m-3 per meter), the 35 amplitude and spread of the function (p3 = 20, p5 = 0.015) and the timing of maximum density due insolation (p4 = 180). I optimized the RMSE between the modelled and the observed snow densities by recording the function's minimum error and the p variables that minimized it. This scalar function minimization was achieved through the open-source SciPy Python and shell scripts compiled by Virtanen et al. (2020). 3.3.5. Model uncertainty assessment All density models were tested with the validation dataset using the modelled densities as response variables of observed snow depths. These modelled densities (Y’) were evaluated against observed (n= 5,615) densities (Y). The root-mean-square error (Equation 3.7) was calculated to estimate the errors’ average magnitude and assess the model performance. ܴ‫ = ܧܵܯ‬ඨ ∑݊݅=1(ܻ − ܻ′)2 ݊ (3.7) The absolute mean difference between the modelled values (Y) and the observations (MAE, Equation 3.8). MAE does not consider the errors’ direction, so it reflects the model’s symmetric distribution. ݊ 1 ‫ = ܧܣܯ‬෍|ܻ − ܻ′| ݊ ݅=1 36 (3.8) MBE, alternatively, measures the average difference between the predicted and actual values, considering the direction of the error (Equation 3.9). It identifies over- and underestimations, systematic biases, and a skewed distribution. ݊ 1 ‫ = ܧܤܯ‬෍(ܻ − ܻ ′ ) ݊ (3.9) ݅=1 Although the RMSE, MAE, and MBE are considered model performance metrics, the RMSE penalizes errors more heavily, making RMSE more sensitive to outliers (Montgomery et al., 2012; Neter et al., 1988). Thus, the RMSE was chosen as a conservative estimate of the density model uncertainty. 3.4. Basin-wide SWE estimations and uncertainty propagation The best-performing snow density models were used to estimate snow density for each survey date. With estimates of snow density for each pixel, SWE was calculated following Equation 3.2. The average SWE for (a) non-glacierized and (b) glacierized portions of the basin (taking each glacier individually) was then calculated, and the uncertainty in each mean was calculated by propagating the individual errors in quadrature. At a given point, SWE is a function of snow depth and density (Equation 3.10), with independent random errors for snow depth (δsnow depth) and snow density (δρsnow). The error for a single estimate of SWE was considered a product of independent and random uncertainties, as in Taylor (1997; Equation 3.11) 37 (3.10) ߩ‫ݓ݋݊ݏ‬ ൰ ∗ ܵ‫ܦ‬ ܹܵ‫ = ܧ‬൬ ߩ‫ݎ݁ݐܽݓ‬ ߜ‫ݖ‬ ߜ‫ ݔ‬2 ߜ‫ ݕ‬2 = ඨ൬ ൰ + ൬ ൰ ‫ݖ‬ ‫ݔ‬ ‫ݕ‬ (3.11) Therefore, the relative uncertainty (ߜௌௐா ⁄ܹܵ‫ ) ܧ‬in the SWE estimations was estimated as (Equations 3.12 and 3.13). 2 ߜ‫ݐ݌݁݀ ݓ݋݊ݏ‬ℎ ߜܹܵ‫ܧ‬ ߜߩ‫ ݓ݋݊ݏ‬2 ൰ +ቆ = ඨ൬ ቇ ܹܵ‫ܧ‬ ߩ‫ݓ݋݊ݏ‬ ‫ݐ݌݁݀ ݓ݋݊ݏ‬ℎ (3.12) ∴ 2 ߜ‫ݐ݌݁݀ ݓ݋݊ݏ‬ℎ ߜߩ‫ ݓ݋݊ݏ‬2 ඨ ൬ ൰ +ቆ ߜܹܵ‫= ݈݁݀݋݉ܧ‬ ቇ ∗ ܹܵ‫݈݁݀݋݉ܧ‬ ߩ‫ݓ݋݊ݏ‬ ‫ݐ݌݁݀ ݓ݋݊ݏ‬ℎ (3.13) The standard deviation found in the 24 pseudo ground control points (Appendix A) served as an estimate of the snow depth uncertainty. The RMSE for modelled snow density was used as the snow density uncertainty. തതതതതതത ; Equation 3.14) can be For non-glacierized portions of the basin, the average SWE (ܹܵ‫ܧ‬ calculated by summing all SWE observations (SWE i >= 0) from non-glacierized pixels and dividing by the number of pixels (N): തതതതതതത ܹܵ‫= ܧ‬ ∑ ܹܵ‫݅ܧ‬ ܰ 38 (3.14) Following the principles of error propagation, a conservative estimate of the uncertainty in mean SWE (ߪௌௐா തതതതതതത ; Equation 3.15) is then calculated as the square root of the sum of the squares of the individual error terms (ߪௌௐா_௜ ) divided by the sample size (N) ∑(ߪܹܵ‫) ݅_ܧ‬2 ߪܹܵ‫ܧ‬ തതതതതതത = ඨ ܰ (3.15) As described earlier, vertical changes due to glacier dynamics are zero when integrated തതതതതതത௜ ) was averaged by its area over a glacier. Therefore, each glacier’s overlying SWE (ܹܵ‫ܧ‬ തതതതതതത‫ ; ݁ݓ‬Equation (‫ܽ݁ݎܣ‬௜ ; RGI Consortium, 2017). Then, the basin-wide average is weighted (ܹܵ‫ܧ‬ 3.16). തതതതതതത ܹܵ‫ܧ‬௪௘ = തതതതതതത௜ ) ∑௡௜ୀଵ(‫ܽ݁ݎܣ‬௜ ∗ ܹܵ‫ܧ‬ ܶ‫ܽ݁ݎܽ ݈ܽݐ݋‬ (3.16) The uncertainty of the weighted average (ߪௌௐா തതതതതതതೢ೐ ; Equation 3.17) can be calculated by interpreting the watershed glaciers as repeat observations (n). To summarize, the methods used in this analysis include: - Snow depth retrievals from co-registered and bias-corrected lidar DEMs - Testing and development of empirical snow density models - Calculation of basin-wide SWE and its uncertainty from snow depths and modelled snow density Results are presented in the following chapter. 39 4. Results Lidar-derived, vertically corrected, and co-registered DEMs from the LaJoie basin, Gold Bridge, British Columbia, were subtracted from the bare earth DEM to produce georeferenced snow depth grids. These gridded snow depth values were analyzed and compared to observed snow observations from snow courses and snow pillows. The snow depth grids were combined with snow density models that yielded the lowest RMSE to produce basin-wide snow water equivalent (SWE) estimations. As described in Chapter 3, the SWE uncertainty was propagated from the independent errors in the lidarsurveying technique, identified through pseudo ground control points and RMSE from each density model. 4.1. Lidar data summaries On average, the distribution of lidar-derived snow depths is positively skewed and ranges from 0 to 5 m (Figures 4.1 and 4.2). 40 Figure 4.1: Lidar-derived snow depth over ice-free terrain, colour-coded by acquisition date. 41 Figure 4.2: Vertically corrected snow depth estimations. Colours over glaciers represent average snow depths. 42 Mean snow depths in glacier-free terrain ranged between 1.2 and 1.7 m. (Figure 4.3; table). Figure 4.3: Mean snow depth by survey, colour coded by survey (Figure 4.1). Hatched bars: mean snow depth weighted by glacier area (RGI Consortium, 2017). 4.1.1. Snow depth over glaciers As expected, snow depth over glaciers was deeper than ice-free terrain and ranged from 2.2 to 5.4 m (Figure 4.3). One hundred and four glacier polygons in the watershed (RGI 6.0; RGI Consortium, 2017) were computed to average snow depth weighted by glacier size (Table 4.1). Table 4.1: Minimum, maximum, median, and weighted average depth over glaciers. Survey date Min. depth Max. depth Mdn. depth Weighted mean depth 2017-05-07 1.799 6.462 4.952 5.356 2018-02-19 1.123 4.446 3.092 3.333 2018-04-22 1.066 5.895 4.065 4.325 2019-03-18 1.149 4.412 2.413 2.498 2019-05-04 1.053 4.827 2.503 2.666 2020-03-09 0.923 4.368 2.311 2.213 2020-05-10 0.708 4.393 2.301 2.198 43 During the study, the median snow depth over glaciers ranged from 5.0 to 2.3 m., while weighted averages ranged from 5.4 to 2.2 m. Snow depth distribution also changed from a negative to a positive skewness (Figure 4.4). The May 2017 survey reflects 1 to 3 m—deeper glacier snowpacks than any other sample, suggesting a high accumulation winter. Figure 4.4: Glacier polygons by their averaged snow depth; colour-coded by survey (Figure 4.1). 44 4.1.2. Vertical snow accumulation gradients Generally, snow depth increases with elevation for all surveys (Figure 4.5). On icefree terrain, median snow depth increases as elevation rises from the lowest elevations to approximately 1800-1900 m. After this, the median snow depth remains consistent for a few hundred meters and decreases beyond 2300 meters. Figure 4.5: Vertical gradients of the observed snow depths at the LaJoie basin. 100-m box plots colourcoded by survey (Figure 4.1). The whisker plots show the median (black line), the first and third quartiles (box limits), and the minimum and maximum values observed by elevation range. 45 The elevations above 2100 meters above sea level experienced the highest snow depth values, peaking at 8 m (‘2015-05-07’), 7 m (‘2018-04-22’) and close to 6 m (every other survey). 4.1.3. Orientation of snow depth Lidar-derived snow depth showed a preference for topographic orientation. The NEfacing slopes (NE, 0 to 90°) showed the deepest snowpacks, nearly half a meter deeper than SW (180° to 270°) facing slopes, i.e., the shallowest snowpacks (Figure 4.6). In contrast, The NW (270 to 0°) and SE (90° to 180°) facing slopes showed similar snow depth. Figure 4.6: Azimuthal distribution of snow depths in non-glacial portions of the LaJoie Basin. Radial axis: 0.5-meter increments. Dashed lines: mean snow depth by aspect, colour-coded by survey (Figure 4.1). 46 4.1.4. Uncertainty assessment The pseudo-ground control points (GCPs) were chosen in snow-free pixels, allowing any vertical bias in the lidar surveys to be identified and corrected. A total of 24 points were collected from stable terrain (i.e., snow-free terrain between subsequent surveys). The median elevation difference in snow-free pixels was isolated as the net elevation bias by survey (in meters; Table 4.2) accounting for the number of measurements (N) estimated, the standard deviation, and errors (Table 4.2). These standard errors served as a conservative estimate of the uncertainty in the lidar-derived measurements. Table 4.2: Bias, standard deviation, and standard error identified through 24 pseudo-GCP. Survey date Elevation bias (m.) Median Std. Std. Error * 2017-09-22 -1.63 0.56 0.11 2017-05-07 0.77 0.47 0.10 2018-02-19 0.12 0.18 0.04 2018-04-22 -0.10 0.35 0.07 2019-03-18 -0.02 0.16 0.03 2019-05-04 -0.05 0.18 0.04 2020-03-09 -0.03 0.20 0.04 2020-05-10 0.04 0.22 0.05 47 4.2. Snow density modelling Basin-wide lidar-derived snow depths require a snow density estimate to yield SWE. Three approaches were used to model the snow density from the snow depth empirically. In total, three snow density models from existing studies, six models calibrated with a snow course dataset (n=5,615), and four models calibrated with snow pillow observations (n=142,451) were tested against independent snow course data (n=5,615) to determine the best empirical approach. The RMSE between the modelled and the observed values served as an indicator of the model’s uncertainty. The mean absolute (MAE) and the mean bias (MBE) errors were also used to describe each model’s performance. Furthermore, the data and subsequent analysis were limited to the Coast Mountains, the Lajoie Basin physiographic region. 4.2.1. Previous empirical snow density models Empirical models found in the literature were tested with the validation dataset (n=5,615) to evaluate the model performance (Figure 4.7). The model coefficients come from each source; therefore, the modelled densities reflect their local calibrations. Model residuals were examined to analyze model behaviour (Figure 4.8) further. 48 Figure 4.7: Observed snow densities compared to existing empirical snow density models. The line represents a line of equality (1:1 line). 49 Figure 4.8: Observed snow densities compared to model residuals from existing empirical snow density models. The Hill et al. (2019) approach ranged snow densities between 250 and 400 kg m-3. This model has the lowest RMSE (68.18 kg m-3) for any of the published models, but it also produced underestimations below 300 kg m-3 and overestimations above 350 kg m-3. Jonas et al. (2009) produced snow densities between 200 and 500 kg m-3 with an RMSE of 84.58 kg m-3. This model showed the group's lowest MAE (52.52 kg m-3) and MBE (2.08 kg m-3). However, this model exhibited data clustering from monthly and elevation-based parameters. The Pistocchi et al. (2016) modelled densities ranged between 300 and 500 kg m-3, the narrowest range in these existing snow models. This model also achieved the group’s highest RMSE (97.77 kg m-3), mean absolute (81.29 kg m-3), and bias (-70.91 kg m-3) errors. Since the 50 model depends on the year’s day, it produces quasi-uniform predictions for a given day or month (Figure 4.7). 4.2.2. Linear regression models from snow pillow data The second set of models fits linear regression models to daily pillow data (Figures 4.9 and 4.10). Figure 4.9: Observed snow densities compared to the snow pillow-derived linear regression model. The line represents a line of equality (1:1 line). 51 Figure 4.10: Observed snow densities compared to model residuals from the snow pillow derived linear regressions. The pillow-derived linear regressions yielded densities that ranged between 200 and 650 kg m-3. The robust regressions outperformed the ordinary regressions, with a smaller RMSE of 75.2 kg m-3 compared to 77.74 kg m-3. The robust regressions also achieved a lower MAE of 56.96 kg m-3, whereas the ordinary model scored 59.49 kg m-3. Both models displayed negatively skewed estimates with MBE values of -35.72 kg m-3 (robust) and -38.07 kg m-3 (ordinary). Once the pillow-derived linear regressions were restricted to the Coast Mountains, the estimated densities ranged from 250 to 550 kg m-3. The robust model exhibited a lower RMSE of 61.24 kg m-3 than the ordinary model at 63.25 kg m-3. However, both models demonstrated similar MAE values of 44.90 kg m-3 (robust) and 47.21 kg m-3 (ordinary), and both models displayed similar mean bias errors of -11.54 kg m-3 (robust) and -11.29 kg m-3 (ordinary). 52 4.2.3. Snow course-derived linear regressions The modelled densities calibrated with snow course observations (Figure 4.11) produce lower degrees of heteroscedasticity and RMSE values than those calibrated with snow pillow data (Figure 4.12). The regression models using snow course observations achieved the smallest evaluation metrics in all density models (Figure 4.15). Figure 4.11: Observed snow densities compared to the snow course derived linear regression model. The line represents a line of equality (1:1 line). 53 Figure 4.12: Observed snow densities compared to the model residuals from the snow course derived linear regression model. The snow course-derived linear regression modelled densities ranged between 180 and 600 kg m-3, the largest spread observed in this study. The robust regressions yielded marginally higher RMSE (47.61 kg m-3) than the ordinary model (47.23 kg m-3). The robust regressions also scored higher MBE (2.48 kg m-3) than the ordinary regressions (0.98 kg m-3), but both showed comparable MAE (34.93 and 35.06 kg m-3; ordinary and robust, respectively). Restricting the snow course data to the Coast Mountains returned a range of 200 to 550 kg m3 . The coastal snow course robust regressions model scored higher RMSE (36.79 and 36.31 kg m-3; ordinary and robust, respectively) than province-wide analysis but lower MAE and MBE (Table 4.3). The Coast Mountains’ snow course derived linear regressions scored this study's lowest degree of heteroscedasticity. 54 4.2.4. Multi-parameter, non-linear equation Five parameters in a non-linear equation were fitted to the validation dataset to minimize the modelling error (Figures 4.13 and 4.14). This group achieved the second-lowest evaluation metrics in this study and showed the second-fastest computing times and simplicity. Figure 4.13: Observed snow densities compared to the multi-parameter, non-linear equation model. The line represents a line of equality (1:1 line). Figure 4.14: Observed snow densities compared to the model residuals from the multi-parameter, non-linear equation. 55 After the error minimization, the minimum density (p1) achieved was 211.25 kg m-3, the relation between snow depth and density (p2) was 48.48 kg m-3 per change in depth, and the amplitude and spread of the function (p3, p5) were 325.27 and -0.02. The timing of maximum density (p4) became the 203rd ordinary day (July 21st or 22nd). The non-linear equation model achieved ranges between 211 and 650 kg m-3 and an RMSE of 51.93 kg m-3. The MBE (2.43 kg m-3) reflects positively skewed estimations. Subsetting the data to the Coast Mountains replaced the minimum density (p1) with 299.41 kg m-3. The direct snow depth and density relation (p2) changed to 20.3, the amplitude and spread of the function (p3, p5) became 255.5 and -0.02, and the timing of maximum density (p4) became the 188th ordinary day (July 6th or 7th) When restricted to data from the Coast Mountains, the modelled density values obtained through the multi-parameter, non-linear equation ranged between 299 to 600 kg m-3. The model achieved an RMSE of 52.79 kg m-3, more prominent than the province-wide analysis. 4.2.5. Model evaluation and selection The density model performance was used to select those models to estimate SWE (Figure 4.15; Table 4.3). The selection of the best snow density models hinged on evaluating the model performance against snow course data through achieved RMSE, MAE, and MBE. 56 Table 4.3: Snow density model performance (RMSE, MAE and MBE are expressed in kg m-3). Group Literature Equations Snow pillow linear regressions Snow course linear regressions Multi-parameter, non-linear equation Model RMSE MAE MBE Hill et al. (2019). 68.18 53.05 7.7 Jonas et al. (2009) 84.58 52.52 2.08 Pistocchi et al. (2016) 97.77 81.29 -70.91 Robust - All samples 75.2 56.96 -35.72 Ordinary - All samples 77.74 59.49 -38.07 Robust - Coastal samples 61.24 44.9 -11.54 Ordinary - Coastal samples 63.25 47.21 -11.29 Robust - All samples 47.61 34.93 2.48 Ordinary - All samples 47.23 35.06 0.94 Robust - Coastal samples 36.79 27.73 1.18 Ordinary - Coastal samples 36.31 28.26 0.49 All samples 51.93 39.43 2.43 Coastal samples 52.79 40.82 -11.54 Figure 4.15: RMSE between the observed and the modelled snow densities. Samples restricted to the Coast Mountains are denoted with an asterisk. 57 The snow course-derived linear regressions achieved the lowest performance metrics but required at least eight field observations per regression. In contrast, existing empirical snow density models required no field data. However, they produced overestimations (Hill et al., 2019) or data clustering (Jonas et al., 2009), scoring the highest bias in this study. Therefore, a) the multi-parameter, non-linear equation and b) the robust least square regressions were chosen as the best density estimations. These models are calibrated with different data sources, ensuring the generalization of this study. The multi-parameter, non-linear equation achieved this study's second-to-lowest RMSE, mean absolute and bias errors. The equation is based on stable snow densification patterns in the province (Chapter 3.3.1), so no further field data are required. The snow pillow-derived linear regressions require only automated data, which reduces exposure to winter conditions and enhances temporal resolution and scalability. This model achieved lower performance metrics than the existing empirical snow density models. None of the calibrated density models showed significant metric improvement when the datasets were reduced to Coast Mountains (Table 4.4). Any observed differences are likely due to random variability rather than a real improvement in the modelled values. Table 4.4: Comparison of RMSE values for different sample sets, expressed in kg m-3 Province-wide analysis Only coastal samples All but coastal samples Pillow-derived robust regressions 75.2 61.24 58.79 Pillow-derived ordinary regressions 77.74 63.25 60.29 Course-derived robust regressions 47.61 44.9 30.91 Course-derived ordinary regressions 47.23 36.79 31.11 Course-derived multi-parameter, non-linear eq. 51.93 52.79 37.66 Model 58 4.3. Snow water equivalent estimations The lidar-derived snow depth grids were paired with the best-performing snow density models to produce basin-wide snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates. Each snow depth cell served as the input value for each density model. The calculated SWE was stored in a georeferenced grid with the same spatial extent and resolution as the snow depth grids. The best density models were chosen based on their applicability and performance metrics against snow course data. 4.3.1. Basin-wide summary Basin-wide SWE estimations use the lidar-derived snow depths and density estimates from the pillow-derived robust linear regressions (Figure 4.16) and the multi-parameter, nonlinear snow density models (Figure 4.17). These SWE estimates also include glacierized terrain and the rest of the basin. Unsurprisingly, SWE is highest (Figures 4.16 and 4.17) during acquisitions when snow is most profound, and estimated snow density is high (e.g., acquisition dates ‘2018-04-22’, ‘2019-05-04’, and ‘20-05-10’). 59 Figure 4.16: Basin-wide SWE obtained with the multi-parameter, non-linear equation density model. Colours over glaciers represent the propagated SWE produced with average snow depths. 60 Figure 4.17: Basin-wide SWE from with the pillow-derived robust linear regression density model. Colours over glaciers represent the propagated SWE produced with average snow depths. 61 The total SWE estimates were partitioned into glacierized and non-glacierized terrain (Tables 4.5 and 4.6; Figures 4.18 and 4.19) and integrated into a basin-wide estimate (Table 4.7). Table 4.5: Non-glaciated terrain average snow depth (m.) and SWE (m.w.e) estimates, *Root mean squared propagated uncertainties (± m.w.e.) Snow water equivalence (m.w.e.) Survey date Snow depth (m) Non-linear equation* Robust linear regressions* 2017-05-07 2.123 1.061 ± 0.143 0.924 ± 0.197 2018-02-19 1.553 0.555 ± 0.1 0.489 ± 0.142 2018-04-22 1.887 0.858 ± 0.125 0.773 ± 0.175 2019-03-18 1.516 0.572 ± 0.096 0.546 ± 0.137 2019-05-04 1.465 0.697 ± 0.098 0.709 ± 0.139 2020-03-09 1.579 0.587 ± 0.102 0.552 ± 0.145 2020-05-10 1.402 0.697 ± 0.099 0.509 ± 0.135 Table 4.6: Average snow depth and SWE estimates weighted by glacier size. **Standard deviation with Bessel’s correction (± m.w.e.). Survey date Snow depth (m) Snow water equivalence (m.w.e.) Non-linear equation** Robust linear regressions** 2017-05-07 5.356 2.928 ± 0.517 1.920 ± 0.175 2018-02-19 3.333 1.266 ± 0.313 1.130 ± 0.287 2018-04-22 4.325 2.103 ± 0.488 1.813 ± 0.384 2019-03-18 2.498 0.962 ± 0.332 0.944 ± 0.376 2019-05-04 2.666 1.293 ± 0.457 1.280 ± 0.385 2020-03-09 2.213 0.818 ± 0.333 0.772 ± 0.289 2020-05-10 2.198 1.086 ± 0.462 0.794 ± 0.449 Table 4.7: Integrated basin-wide SWE averages, i.e., glacierized and non-glacierized SWE estimates aggregated by area. Survey date 2017-05-07 2018-02-19 Snow water equivalence (m.w.e.) Non-linear equation Robust linear regressions 1.416 1.113 0.690 0.611 62 2018-04-22 1.095 0.971 2019-03-18 0.646 0.622 2019-05-04 0.810 0.818 2020-03-09 0.631 0.594 2020-05-10 0.771 0.563 Figure 4.18: Mean snow water equivalent (multi-parameter, non-linear equation). Hatched bars: mean water equivalent weighted by glacier size. Colour-coded by survey (Figure 4.1). Figure 4.19: Mean snow water equivalent (snow pillow derived robust linear regressions). Hatched bars: mean water equivalent over glaciers. Colour-coded by survey (Figure 4.1). While comparable, the multi-parameter non-linear model yielded higher SWE estimates during the 2017-05-07 and 2018-02-19 surveys than the linear regression model. 63 This can be attributed to the snow course dataset, wherein 18 of 11,230 snow course entries represent snowpacks deeper than 5 m, with a timespan between 58 and 124 days of the year (two months; Table 4.8). This class imbalance impacts the modelled SWE in the deepest snowpacks. Table 4.8: Temporal distribution of the snow course observations by depth Snow depth (m.) Obs. Count min DOY mdn DOY max DOY 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 5589 3769 1344 407 102 18 1 1 1 1 1 29 58 97 63 86 86 89 91 95 97 366 366 366 364 152 124 97 In the non-glacierized terrain, the estimations’ interquartile range from 0 to 1.5 m.w.e. and show a vertical gradient comparable to the snow depth values (Figure 4.20). 64 Figure 4.20: Vertical gradient observed in the SWE estimates (ice-free terrain) achieved with the pillow-derived robust linear regressions (navy blue) and the optimized multi-parameter, non-linear equation (gold bars). The non-linear equation model achieved smaller values in the early season than the pillow robust regressions. Inversely, the late-season pillow-derived regressions showed lower values than the non-linear model. The April 2018 survey (‘2018-04-22’) shows the best agreement between both models. 65 4.3.2. Point-based validation I used two snow pillows in the LaJoie basin (Figure 4.21) to validate the SWE estimates independently. Hourly SWE observations were excluded from the snow pillow calibration dataset as they lacked snow depth measurements. Figure 4.21: Snow pillows at the LaJoie Basin. The glacier polygons display the Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI Consortium, 2017), also used in this study. The validation consisted of extracting snow depth from a 15-m radius at the exact coordinates of the snow pillow sites (Figures 4.22 and 4.23) and applying the snow density models to obtain estimates of SWE for each station. These SWE estimates were validated against 14 pillow observations (seven dates observed in two snow pillows). 66 In half of the comparisons against the multi-parameter non-linear model, the pillow observations are within the interquartile range, and five overlap the modelled SWE median counterpart (Figure 4.22). Pillow measurements beyond the interquartile range indicate disagreements smaller than 0.14 m.w.e. (Table 4.9). Table 4.9: Snow pillow observations against SWE estimates (m.w.e.) achieved with the snow course derived multi-parameter, non-linear snow density model. Survey date 1C12P obs. (m.w.e.) SWE estimate (m.w.e.) Mdn. Std. Min. Mdn. Max. 2017-05-07 0.713 0.002 0.442 0.670 0.998 13.230 2018-02-19 0.690 0.000 0.369 0.509 0.681 15.616 2018-04-22 0.812 0.003 0.661 0.865 1.165 12.508 2019-03-18 0.682 0.001 0.384 0.545 0.764 14.591 2019-05-04 0.704 0.004 0.412 0.633 0.942 11.842 2020-03-09 0.537 0.000 0.400 0.555 0.719 14.972 2020-05-10 0.506 0.006 0.356 0.495 0.767 12.134 Survey date 1C38P obs. (m.w.e.) SWE estimate (m.w.e.) Mdn. Std. Min. Mdn. Max. 2017-05-07 0.858 0.004 0.861 0.999 1.266 11.948 2018-02-19 0.604 0.001 0.182 0.572 0.700 15.421 2018-04-22 0.699 0.001 0.674 0.843 0.982 12.558 2019-03-18 0.686 0.001 0.517 0.677 0.812 14.285 2019-05-04 0.714 0.002 0.433 0.730 0.941 11.660 2020-03-09 0.598 0.000 0.535 0.681 0.824 14.642 2020-05-10 0.557 0.004 0.399 0.580 0.769 11.811 67 Relative unc. Mdn. (%) Relative unc. Mdn. (%) Figure 4.22: SWE observations compared to estimates from the multi-parameter, non-linear model colour-coded by survey (Figure 4.1). The line represents a line of equality (1:1 line). Alternatively, all pillow observations fell within the SWE modelled with the snow pillow-derived robust linear regressions, and five fell inside the interquartile ranges. The rest showed discrepancies smaller than 0.15 m.w.e from the interquartile range (Table 4.10). Table 4.10: Snow pillow observations compared with SWE estimates (m.w.e) achieved with the snow pillow-derived robust linear regressions model. Survey date SWE estimate 1C1P2 obs. (m.w.e.) Mdn. Std. Min. Mdn. Max. 2017-05-07 0.713 0.002 0.488 0.703 0.975 16.924 2018-02-19 0.690 0.000 0.419 0.554 0.704 20.505 2018-04-22 0.812 0.003 0.657 0.833 1.074 18.279 2019-03-18 0.682 0.001 0.337 0.494 0.722 22.993 2019-05-04 0.704 0.004 0.468 0.689 0.968 15.466 2020-03-09 0.537 0.000 0.390 0.535 0.684 22.184 2020-05-10 0.506 0.006 0.408 0.563 0.856 14.916 68 Relative unc. Mdn. (%) Survey date 1C38P obs. (m.w.e.) SWE estimate Mdn. Std. Min. Mdn. Max. Relative unc. Mdn. (%) 2017-05-07 0.858 0.004 0.866 0.975 1.167 16.831 2018-02-19 0.604 0.001 0.220 0.611 0.720 20.655 2018-04-22 0.699 0.001 0.668 0.814 0.929 18.275 2019-03-18 0.686 0.001 0.467 0.630 0.773 21.997 2019-05-04 0.714 0.002 0.490 0.780 0.967 15.536 2020-03-09 0.598 0.000 0.516 0.649 0.778 21.957 2020-05-10 0.557 0.004 0.456 0.656 0.858 14.698 Figure 4.23: SWE observations compared to the snow pillow-derived robust linear regressions SWE estimates, colour-coded by survey (Figure 4.1). The line represents a line of equality (1:1 line). 4.4. Uncertainty propagation The modelled SWE uncertainty was calculated for every raster, considering the independent errors in a) snow depth (from the lidar pseudo ground control points’ standard deviation) and b) modelled snow density (from the RMSE between the achieved modelled densities and the 69 snow course observations; Figures 4.24 and 4.26). Relative SWE estimates consider the uncertainty magnitude against the estimated SWE values (Figures 4.25 and 4.27). 70 Figure 4.24: Snow course derived multi-parameter, non-linear model – SWE uncertainty. Colours over glaciers represent the propagated uncertainty produced with average snow depths. 71 Figure 4.25: Snow course derived multi-parameter, non-linear model – relative SWE uncertainty. Colours over glaciers represent the propagated uncertainty produced with average snow depths. 72 Figure 4.26: Snow pillow derived robust linear regression model – SWE uncertainty. Colours over glaciers represent the propagated uncertainty produced with average snow depths. 73 Figure 4.27: Snow pillow derived robust linear regression model – relative SWE uncertainty. Colours over glaciers represent the propagated uncertainty produced with average snow depths. 74 Uncertainties in gridded SWE values ranged from ±0.010 to ±0.424 m.w.e. for the nonlinear snow density model, while the SWE uncertainties from snow pillow-derived regressions ranged from ±0.011 to ±0.599 m.w.e. respectively (Tables 4.11 and 4.12; Figures 4.28 and 4.29). SWE uncertainties display positive skewness (Figure 4.28). Table 4.11: Modelled SWE uncertainty ranges achieved with the snow course derived multi-parameter, non-linear equation. Survey Date 2017-05-07 2018-02-19 2018-04-22 2019-03-18 2019-05-04 2020-03-09 2020-05-10 Min. SWE Mdn. SWE Max. SWE uncertainty (m.w.e.) uncertainty (m.w.e.) uncertainty (m.w.e.) 0.054 0.011 0.027 0.008 0.020 0.013 0.012 0.151 0.103 0.126 0.101 0.096 0.104 0.085 0.599 0.599 0.599 0.596 0.599 0.598 0.514 Median relative uncertainty (%) 12.782 16.003 13.335 14.859 12.401 15.333 13.008 Figure 4.28: Histogram of SWE uncertainty in non-glacierized terrain calculated with the snow coursederived multi-parameter non-linear equation, colour-coded by survey (Figure 4.1). 75 Table 4.12: Modelled SWE uncertainty ranges achieved with the snow pillow derived linear regression. Survey Date Min. SWE uncertainty (m.w.e.) Mdn. SWE uncertainty (m.w.e.) Max. SWE uncertainty (m.w.e.) Median relative uncertainty (%) 2017-05-07 0.044 0.111 0.424 17.725 2018-02-19 0.012 0.073 0.420 20.776 2018-04-22 0.028 0.092 0.422 18.696 2019-03-18 0.010 0.071 0.420 23.840 2019-05-04 0.017 0.068 0.420 15.910 2020-03-09 0.013 0.074 0.420 22.431 2020-05-10 0.022 0.064 0.421 15.319 Figure 4.29: Histogram of SWE uncertainty in non-glacierized terrain calculated with the snow pillowderived linear regressions, colour-coded by survey (Figure 4.1). 76 5. Discussion 5.1. Lidar-derived snow depth 5.1.1. General observations The lidar observations demonstrated a strong relation between topography and snow depth. Deeper snowpacks were consistently found at higher elevations of 1800-1900 m, where snow depth remains constant for a few hundred meters. Higher elevations are more prone to erosion (Déry et al., 2010), thus above 2300 m., the snow depth decreases, possibly due to redistribution due to wind and snow avalanches (Grünewald et al., 2014; Vionnet et al., 2021). The measured snow depth also reflects the underlying terrain orientation. The NE-facing slopes (NE, 0 to 90°) host the deepest snowpacks, nearly half a meter deeper than the SW (180° to 270°) counterpart, i.e., the shallowest snowpacks (Figure 4.6). While this can denote the leeward and windward slopes, this contrast can also be attributed to incoming radiation patterns, wherein the NE-facing sides receive less solar exposure, which helps preserve the snowpacks. Wind circulation patterns also influence variation in snow depth in the Coast Mountains. The Pacific High and the Aleutian Low systems peak during winter, resulting in a dominant southwesterly circulation (Klock et al., 2001) evidenced in low-slope areas with wind-swept snow. The glacierized terrain contains deeper snowpacks than the rest of the basin (Tables 4.5 and 4.6). The topographic shelter, negligible ground heat flux from glacier ice, and skin temperatures of the ice at the melting point all contribute to deep snowpacks. Despite the increased snow retention on glaciers, glacier shrinkage will limit the areas of deep snowpacks 77 in the Lajoie basin for the foreseeable future (Bevington & Menounos, 2022; Rounce et al., 2023). 5.1.2. Comparative analysis of snow depth uncertainties This study uses multiple lidar surveys for a given year (Table 3.2), unlike studies relying on a single (Moreno et al., 2009) or yearly observations (Deems et al., 2013; Pflug & Lundquist, 2020). These data allow for a more detailed understanding of the temporal dynamics of snowpacks over topographically complex terrain. Given the lack of ground observations, I estimated the vertical uncertainty in the lidarderived snow depths by calculating the variance of elevation over stable terrain, a methodology distinct from relying on field data (López-Moreno & Nogués-Bravo, 2006; Painter et al., 2016). A significant limitation of this approach is that the area of stable terrain required to complete this analysis is much smaller than conventional methods used in error propagation for glacier change (e.g., Pelto et al., 2017; Menounos et al., 2019). The lidar-derived snow depth uncertainties ranged from ±0.03 to ±0.11 m. (Table 4.2), with a sampling resolution of approximately one laser return per m-2. Increasing the density of laser returns, up to 364 per m-2, significantly reduced uncertainties as low as ±0.0122 m, particularly in open ground (Jacobs et al., 2021). However, the largest source of uncertainty in SWE estimates lies in the applied snow density models (Mital et al., 2022; Painter et al., 2016). Consequently, potential improvements in lidar precision need to be weighed against the associated costs and practical implications. Alternative methods can be used to estimate mountainous snow depth. Using photogrammetric reconstructions, the high-resolution stereo pair imagery from the Pléiades 78 satellites can achieve 4 m ground sampling resolutions, with uncertainties from ±0.36 m (Shaw et al., 2019) to ± 0.2 m. (Deschamps-Berger et al., 2020; Shaw et al., 2020) Meanwhile, uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV) have centimetre-scale uncertainties (±0.05 to ±0.11 m; Deschamps-Berger et al., 2020). While these alternatives offer different acquisition flexibility, the precision achieved by lidar should be duly acknowledged. Further research should weigh precision over project requirements and terrain. 5.2. Empirical snow density modelling 5.2.1. Major findings The linear regressions calibrated with snow course data produced the lowest RMSE (47.61 and 47.23 kg m-3) of this study, outperforming the regressions calibrated with snow pillows (75.2 and 77.74 kg m-3, robust and ordinary, respectively). The multi-parameter, nonlinear density parameterization (also calibrated with snow course data) achieved the secondto-lowest RMSE of this study (51.93 kg m-3; Table 4.3), A provincial subset of the calibration data was used to evaluate physiographic sensitivity. Reducing the models to the Coast Mountains did not significantly improve the statistical performance, supporting the model’s transferability. However, there were notable differences in the parameter fitting of the multi-parameter, non-linear models. When considering the Coast Mountains samples exclusively, the timing of maximum density shifted from the 203rd ordinal day (July 21st to 22nd) to the 188th day (July 6th or 7th). The earlier 79 end of the snow season highlights different snowmelt patterns in the southern Coast Mountains than elsewhere. 5.2.2. Comparative analysis of density modelling errors The empirical density models developed here can be compared to physically-based models. The snowmelt Snobal model used in California, US, achieved RMSE values ranging from 52 to 79 kg m-3 (Smyth et al., 2019), and the SNOWPACK model achieved a bias between 22 to 31 kg m-3 over Antarctic snow and firn (Keenan et al., 2021). The models in this study achieved RMSE values between 36 and 77 kg m-3, affirming their comparability to state-ofthe-art physically-based approaches. Unlike the empirical models used in this study, a physically-based model requires the start of the snow season, among other variables. Contrarily, Hill et al. (2019) considered the beginning of the snow season (DOY) by October 1st, while Pistocchi (2016) chose November 1st instead. Generalizations regarding uniform start or end dates may serve practical purposes, but the elevation, topography, and atmospheric patterns influence the initial snowfall conditions. Analyzing snowpack timespans with an empiric perspective may further allow us to explain densification patterns. 5.3. Propagated basin-wide SWE and error 5.3.1. Major findings Lidar-derived SWE estimates showed interannual variability but significant differences between glacierized and non-glacierized terrain. Glaciers have significantly higher snow 80 retention than non-glacierized terrain (Tables 4.5 and 4.6) and need to be considered separately in any calculation of basin-wide SWE. Notably, the uncertainty in my modelled snow densities tends to be more pronounced in thin, early-season snowpacks. Since the lidar samples were strategically planned to capture near-maximum SWE in the watershed, extrapolating my findings to thinner, less dense snowpacks may significantly induce errors. Similar studies (Helfricht et al., 2014; Painter et al., 2016) reinforce the need to explore thinner, less dense snow cover scenarios. 5.3.2. Comparative analysis This study’s non-linear model combined with lidar-derived snow depth resulted in a median relative uncertainty of 12.9% of the SWE estimates (Table 4.10). Comparatively, Guyennon et al. (2019) achieved a relative uncertainty of 15.6% using manual snow depth and a non-linear empirical snow density model. Since the SWE variations primarily come from depth fluctuations (Painter et al., 2016), the reduced relative uncertainty in this study is more influenced by greater snow depth sample size and enhanced control on snow mass than the modelled densities. This study’s 5 m ground sampling resolution was sufficiently detailed, considering the 0.03 to 0.1 m uncertainty achieved and the 962.5 km2 sampled. At finer, 1 m resolutions, snow depth uncertainties were achieved around 0.18 m (Pyrenees Mountains, Spain; Moreno et al., 2009) and 0.15 m. (Tyrolean Alps, Austria; Schöber et al., 2014), However, time and operational expenses constrained their studies to relatively small watersheds (38 and 36 km2). 81 Larger watersheds are attainable but demand an extraordinary level of effort. The Tuolomne Watershed, USA, hosts the “most [airborne laser surveyed] region in the world” (Pflug & Lundquist, 2020). With a surveyed area of 1625 km2 and seven years of observations, 3-meter snow depth rasters achieved uncertainties smaller than 0.8 m. These cases demonstrate that larger areas and finer resolutions may impact the produced uncertainties, but not significantly. However, these comparisons should be taken carefully as these studies compare their surveys to in-situ observations. This study's design balances resolution, area coverage, and associated uncertainties over the basin-wide estimates. Further contributions to minimizing the uncertainty of snow density are encouraged. 5.4. Study limitations Several notable limitations of this study exist. The lack of ground snow depth and density observations prevents independent error analysis through time and space. Significant uncertainties arise from 1) the temporal resolution achieved with lidar, 2) the complexity of the glacierized terrain, and 3) the independent data used to calibrate the density models. The temporal coverage in my lidar-derived snow depths captured conditions near maximum snow depths, restricting the generalization of findings to other winter periods. Increasing the sampling resolution would also help to characterize snowpack dynamics, identify hiatus, and minimize errors in snow depth estimates. Meanwhile, transferring the regression models primarily during the melt period, assuming consistent metamorphism rates (e.g., compaction, hydraulic conductivity), is advisable. 82 Secondly, averaging glacial snow depths (or SWE) oversimplifies the complexity of glacier accumulation patterns. Ice dynamics widely impact the winter mass balance gradients observed in glaciers of western Canada (e.g., Mukherjee et al., 2023; World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS), 2023), particularly in glaciers with high rates of mass flux and wind erosion. Acknowledging these complexities through an ice dynamics model is necessary to describe snow depth over glacierized terrain. Additionally, the snow depth and accumulation rates beneath vegetation are often subject to significant uncertainties (Zaremehrjardy et al., 2021). Recent research emphasized the influence of canopy height and soil type on snow distribution, revealing distinct clusters or zone groupings that impact measurement and modelling accuracy (Geissler et al., 2023). Stratifying lidar and modelling data by representative land cover classes could enhance model accuracy (Deems et al., 2013) and enable snow density and error maps by region. Lastly, the data used to calibrate these empirical models are imperfect datasets. The snow course data (Province of British Columbia, 2021a) has a coarse temporal resolution and scarcely reflects the deepest snowpacks (i.e., more profound than 3 m). Snow pillow data, instead, are readily available (Province of British Columbia, 2021b) but susceptible to data outliers, as evidenced by the higher RMSE achieved with robust regressions against ordinary regressions. These data outliers can be identified on a pillow-scale basis. A snow column naturally densifies over time, increasing daily. Some snow pillows, however, do not record a progressively increasing snow density (Figure 5.2). 83 Figure 5.1: Densification pattern recorded by two snow pillows in one snow season. The snow pillow entries denote densification inconsistencies in the bottom panel (Station 1F06P). While noise or equipment malfunction should be considered, these densification artifacts may be caused by pillows prone to developing ice lenses or being exposed to runoff, compromising the column resistivity and the inferred snow depth 84 5.5. Transferability of results The uncertainty in lidar measurements depends upon operational factors, such as flight conditions and sensor specifications. Nonetheless, the major findings of this study may assist in creating representative study designs. In large basins, the elevation and aspect dependence of snow depth can be addressed by designing surveys that sample slope, aspect, and elevations. A survey that also samples the most representative land cover classes (e.g., clear-cut versus canopy), different hierarchy discharge pathways, and glacial and non-glacial terrain (if applicable); may help us to further understand the hydraulic distribution within the catchment area and isolate independent densification patterns. In contrast, the snow density models exhibit should be transferrable across the province and may be applied to other regions with representative calibration datasets. The laser altimetry and empirical modelling approaches are interchangeable with other snow depth and density measurement techniques. 85 6. Conclusions This thesis achieved three objectives: (1) acquire and process lidar snow depth data, (2) calibrate and model empirical snow density, and (3) estimate basin-wide snow water equivalent propagating independent uncertainties. In the first part of this study, lidar-derived snow depths showed positively skewed distributions, with most measurements falling within zero and five meters. Snow depths in glacier-free terrain averaged between 1.4 and 2.1 m. In comparison, the glacierized landscape weighted average snow depth between 2.2 and 5.4 m, emphasizing the importance of snow retention on glaciers in basin-wide SWE calculations. Snow depth increases with elevation up to 1900 m. Above 1900 m.a.s.l. snow depths decrease, reflecting the importance of elevation (favourable lapse rates of precipitation and adiabatic cooling), followed by snow redistribution by wind and gravity. Deeper snowpacks were found on NE-facing slopes, nearly half a meter deeper than the shallowest SW-facing snowpacks. Snow-free pixels were isolated to identify and correct vertical biases in the lidar-derived snow depths. The median elevation difference in 24 stable terrain pixels served as the net elevation bias, while the standard error denoted an uncertainty in the estimates from ±0.03 to ±0.11 m. In the second part of this study, I evaluated three previously published snow density models (Hill et al., 2019; Pistocchi, 2016; Sturm et al., 2010) and calibrated ten linear and nonlinear empirical models with provincial snow course and pillow data. The modelled density values were tested against a snow course validation dataset (n=5,616) to evaluate the model performance. 86 Provincial snow pillow (n=142,451) and snow course (n=5,616) observations were used to calibrate ordinary and robust linear regressions of snow density versus depth. The robust regressions with snow pillows achieved lower RMSE (74.12 and 76.97 kg m-3), MAE (55.76 and 58.64 kg m-3), and MBE (-34.97 and -36.97 kg m-3) compared to ordinary linear regressions. Conversely, the snow course-derived robust and ordinal regressions demonstrated marginal differences in RMSE (47.65 and 47.21 kg m-3), MAE (34.93 and 34.87 kg m-3) and MBE (3.05 and 1.55 kg m-3), achieving the best performance metrics in this study. I also calibrated a multi-parameter, non-linear snow density model to the validation dataset, achieving RMSE (51.6 kg m-3), MAE (39.17 kg m-3), and MBE (3.29 kg m-3) values. Observations from the Coast Mountains region were used as a subset to test the influence of physiography on snow densification. Marginal differences between coastal and non-coastal groups were more likely due to random variability than real estimate improvements. The snow course-derived multi-parameter, non-linear model, and the snow pillow-derived robust regressions provided the lowest errors in estimated snow density and were carried forward for subsequent comparison. These models are also the most transferrable across the province and beyond to other regions In the third part of this study, basin-wide SWE estimates were produced from the lidarderived snow depth and the two best snow density models. Late winter surveys showed higher SWE estimates than their respective early winter counterparts. The first survey produced the highest average SWE (1.061 and 0.924 m.w.e.), and the last survey had the lowest (0.697 and 0.509 m.w.e.; non-linear and linear regression model respectively). 87 Independent data from two snow pillow observations were compared against lidar and snow density model-derived SWE estimates from a 15-meter radius around each site, totalling 28 comparison points. The modelled SWE values fell within the SWE observations, from which 12 also fell within the daily interquartile ranges. Any differences between the pillow observations and the SWE estimates’ interquartile range were smaller than 0.15 m.w.e. In 24 out of the 28 comparisons, the combined value of the median SWE estimates and their uncertainties exceeded the pillow observations, fulfilling a conservative approach and demonstrating this study’s comparability to remotely sensed data. Finally, the SWE uncertainty was propagated from the independent errors in snow depth (determined from repeat observations of elevation on snow-free pixels) and the RMSE of the best snow density models. Both density models showed a higher contribution to basinwide uncertainty than the lidar-derived snow depth. The complexities of glacier dynamics present challenges in calculating snow depth and water equivalent on individual glacierized pixels. Without an underlying ice dynamics model, averaging snow depth by glacier lets us approximate glacial snowpack inventories by weighing averages (5.356 to 2.198 m.). Nonetheless, these averages, based on bare earth models collected during a time of rapid glacier change, may misrepresent true glacial snow depths and underscore the necessity for considering glacier dynamics when assessing mountainous glacial snowpacks. In non-glacierized terrain, median uncertainties in SWE from ±0.096 to ±0.143 m.w.e. using the non-linear density model. Alternatively, the snow pillow derived regressions 88 achieved median SWE uncertainties between ±0.135 and ±0.197 m.w.e. Estimated uncertainties showed positively skewed distributions. Snow density models that linearly correlate station-based observations of SWE and snow depth, and fitted non-linear empirical models that consider depth, density and day of the year should be developed and tested in other regions. Further explorations of snow pillow datasets may help to isolate a snowpack’s granular texture, effective permeability, residence time and ablation rates. 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Water Resources Research, 43(7). https://doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005653 World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). (2023). FLUCTUATIONS OF GLACIERS DATABASE. World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). https://doi.org/10.5904/WGMS-FOG-2023-09 Zaremehrjardy, M., Razavi, S., & Faramarzi, M. (2021). Assessment of the cascade of uncertainty in future snow depth projections across watersheds of mountainous, foothill, and plain areas in northern latitudes. Journal of https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125735 97 Hydrology, 598, 125735. 8. Appendices Appendix A: Selected snow-free pixels (i.e., pseudo-GCPs). Latitude (N) Longitude (W) Elevation (m.a.s.l.) 1 50.82 -123.58 1719.64 2 50.84 -123.03 807.05 3 50.78 -123.33 2328.44 4 50.84 -122.86 669.17 5 50.84 -122.85 663.60 6 50.84 -122.86 740.07 7 50.86 -123.20 2417.32 8 50.87 -123.27 2396.77 9 50.90 -123.28 2552.33 10 50.92 -123.59 2611.52 11 50.85 -123.65 2427.56 12 50.81 -123.61 1916.61 13 50.79 -123.59 2000.85 14 50.78 -122.94 2181.57 15 50.83 -122.88 859.40 16 50.83 -122.85 770.61 17 50.88 -122.98 2221.86 18 50.86 -123.10 2472.16 19 50.84 -123.03 723.66 20 50.82 -122.85 891.78 21 50.83 -122.96 728.84 22 50.83 -123.06 753.17 23 50.82 -123.12 719.20 24 50.83 -123.19 835.97 ID Appendix B: Glacier extents used in this study, extracted from the Randolph Glacier Inventory 6.0 (RGI Consortium, 2017). RGIId *Latitude (N) *Longitude (W) Min. Max. Mdn. RGI60-02.02636 RGI60-02.02631 RGI60-02.02037 RGI60-02.02107 RGI60-02.02041 RGI60-02.02490 50.822 50.872 50.745 50.792 50.764 50.903 -123.639 -123.621 -123.306 -123.414 -123.343 -123.588 1388 1577 1691 1945 1763 1909 2885 2841 2668 2510 2701 2648 2289 2251 2202 2248 2317 2255 Elevation (m.a.s.l.) 98 Area (km2) Name 79.336 24.644 13.161 6.048 5.687 5.426 Bridge Sykora Zavisha RGI60-02.01826 RGI60-02.02784 RGI60-02.01922 RGI60-02.02526 RGI60-02.02752 RGI60-02.01923 RGI60-02.02745 RGI60-02.02613 RGI60-02.02049 RGI60-02.02751 RGI60-02.02671 RGI60-02.02274 RGI60-02.01919 RGI60-02.02042 RGI60-02.02145 RGI60-02.01921 RGI60-02.01938 RGI60-02.01920 RGI60-02.02111 RGI60-02.02132 RGI60-02.02064 RGI60-02.01910 RGI60-02.02059 RGI60-02.01874 RGI60-02.02038 RGI60-02.01835 RGI60-02.02785 RGI60-02.02093 RGI60-02.02514 RGI60-02.02747 RGI60-02.02786 RGI60-02.02444 RGI60-02.01937 RGI60-02.02670 RGI60-02.02324 RGI60-02.02216 RGI60-02.02615 RGI60-02.02590 RGI60-02.01988 RGI60-02.02094 RGI60-02.02202 RGI60-02.02606 RGI60-02.02220 RGI60-02.01964 RGI60-02.02289 RGI60-02.02036 RGI60-02.02252 RGI60-02.02110 50.695 50.991 50.738 50.919 50.956 50.733 50.974 50.792 50.776 50.953 50.964 50.875 50.730 50.776 50.814 50.727 50.748 50.732 50.802 50.810 50.783 50.736 50.780 50.722 50.733 50.710 50.974 50.797 50.935 50.976 50.978 50.898 50.746 50.960 50.889 50.854 50.785 50.953 50.764 50.798 50.849 50.855 50.857 50.757 50.883 50.762 50.870 50.806 -123.198 -123.421 -123.158 -123.574 -123.490 -123.112 -123.446 -123.513 -123.304 -123.465 -123.408 -123.248 -123.180 -123.130 -123.335 -123.084 -123.139 -123.148 -123.358 -123.295 -123.141 -123.213 -123.323 -123.193 -123.279 -123.182 -123.421 -123.384 -123.341 -123.474 -123.403 -123.289 -123.080 -123.402 -123.611 -123.147 -123.504 -123.403 -122.970 -123.370 -123.569 -123.813 -123.536 -123.272 -123.201 -123.315 -123.235 -123.372 1866 1979 1979 1989 2093 1938 1986 1898 1934 2101 2069 2122 2052 2142 2082 2010 2086 2121 2058 2016 2120 1954 2000 2078 2048 2288 2216 2139 2241 1908 2175 2259 2043 2085 2232 2119 2016 2217 2204 2284 2094 1201 2103 2035 2277 2261 2175 2189 99 2506 2465 2498 2538 2478 2555 2446 2375 2689 2470 2455 2450 2518 2540 2515 2412 2534 2487 2488 2516 2631 2433 2639 2633 2493 2673 2394 2387 2539 2509 2389 2522 2464 2435 2467 2470 2371 2388 2457 2474 2288 2954 2216 2322 2525 2622 2445 2355 2225 2197 2209 2218 2311 2257 2169 2162 2270 2298 2235 2285 2331 2325 2254 2254 2216 2261 2265 2269 2344 2197 2350 2347 2220 2498 2296 2232 2409 2209 2292 2404 2266 2260 2374 2338 2218 2335 2359 2355 2196 2436 2166 2164 2410 2518 2346 2263 3.898 3.114 3.109 2.967 2.823 2.502 2.463 2.101 2.035 1.830 1.335 1.325 1.234 1.234 1.065 0.978 0.856 0.836 0.811 0.785 0.743 0.717 0.691 0.687 0.592 0.591 0.568 0.504 0.480 0.448 0.448 0.416 0.397 0.392 0.378 0.350 0.345 0.323 0.308 0.301 0.296 0.246 0.244 0.232 0.227 0.212 0.206 0.203 McParlon Surfusion RGI60-02.02011 RGI60-02.02621 RGI60-02.02068 RGI60-02.01972 RGI60-02.01980 RGI60-02.02520 RGI60-02.02211 RGI60-02.02262 RGI60-02.02231 RGI60-02.02104 RGI60-02.02627 RGI60-02.01989 RGI60-02.02044 RGI60-02.02672 RGI60-02.01900 RGI60-02.02103 RGI60-02.01982 RGI60-02.02622 RGI60-02.01932 RGI60-02.02214 RGI60-02.02746 RGI60-02.02448 RGI60-02.02633 RGI60-02.01864 RGI60-02.02750 RGI60-02.02144 RGI60-02.02624 RGI60-02.02039 RGI60-02.01825 RGI60-02.02040 RGI60-02.02106 RGI60-02.02443 RGI60-02.02749 RGI60-02.02626 RGI60-02.02491 RGI60-02.02492 RGI60-02.02105 RGI60-02.01873 RGI60-02.01824 RGI60-02.02632 RGI60-02.02792 RGI60-02.02533 RGI60-02.02617 RGI60-02.02518 RGI60-02.01914 RGI60-02.02493 RGI60-02.02614 RGI60-02.01945 50.768 50.781 50.788 50.759 50.761 50.939 50.853 50.875 50.861 50.780 50.776 50.764 50.780 50.959 50.738 50.798 50.764 50.905 50.748 50.855 50.943 50.905 50.787 50.727 50.948 50.809 50.800 50.752 50.691 50.723 50.786 50.901 50.960 50.817 50.909 50.917 50.777 50.718 50.684 50.781 51.002 50.935 50.791 50.936 50.742 50.911 50.782 50.743 -123.303 -123.507 -123.151 -123.130 -123.136 -123.335 -123.166 -123.263 -123.544 -123.414 -123.711 -122.976 -123.501 -123.419 -123.037 -123.453 -123.308 -123.713 -123.071 -123.157 -123.465 -123.282 -123.674 -123.069 -123.476 -123.329 -123.723 -123.353 -123.212 -123.301 -123.392 -123.276 -123.509 -123.770 -123.626 -123.606 -123.402 -123.173 -123.206 -123.619 -123.367 -123.566 -123.529 -123.304 -122.989 -123.649 -123.516 -123.359 2217 2167 2064 2191 2265 2170 2216 2314 2019 2283 1725 2273 2028 2282 2163 2131 2273 1685 2143 2255 2213 2309 1564 2172 2352 2336 2664 2520 2155 2160 2277 2259 2094 1373 1900 2044 2401 2026 2238 2149 2159 2007 2113 2151 2141 2136 2198 1871 100 2489 2387 2351 2530 2568 2454 2356 2494 2155 2481 2827 2442 2218 2419 2279 2398 2518 2888 2348 2407 2330 2438 2864 2244 2433 2441 2829 2670 2434 2532 2376 2538 2448 2884 2650 2607 2487 2686 2461 2353 2494 2561 2272 2552 2348 2626 2392 2636 2320 2313 2148 2388 2400 2297 2284 2399 2085 2373 2183 2377 2140 2317 2221 2233 2386 2500 2283 2310 2289 2390 2220 2214 2421 2382 2718 2566 2349 2405 2311 2361 2207 2346 2295 2376 2437 2364 2340 2317 2300 2271 2181 2387 2257 2406 2306 2331 0.201 0.200 0.182 0.180 0.163 0.152 0.151 0.145 0.143 0.136 0.106 0.105 0.101 0.085 0.080 0.080 0.072 0.065 0.064 0.062 0.062 0.054 0.054 0.053 0.053 0.052 0.052 0.051 0.046 0.043 0.041 0.040 0.040 0.034 0.028 0.021 0.018 0.011 0.008 0.007 0.007 0.006 0.006 0.005 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 RGI60-02.02527 RGI60-02.02616 50.932 50.765 -123.600 -123.559 2015 1704 2627 2336 2303 2036 0.001 0.001 Appendix C: Manual snow samples; n= number of days considered in this study—data from the province of British Columbia (2021b). ID Name Latitude (N) Longitude (W) Elevation (m.a.s.l.) n 1A01 Yellowhead 52.91 -118.55 1860 7 1A02 McBride Upper 53.31 -120.32 1610 42 1A05 Longworth (Upper) 53.95 -121.44 1693 80 1A06A Hansard 54.08 -121.87 608 22 1A10 Prince George arpt. 53.88 -122.68 689 57 1A11 Pacific Lake 54.38 -121.58 755 90 1A12 Kaza Lake 56.02 -126.29 1250 77 1A14 Hedrick Lake 54.11 -121.01 1110 50 1A15 Knudsen Lake 54.30 -120.78 1580 86 1A16 Burns Lake 54.23 -54.23 800 79 1A18 Holmes River 53.28 -119.46 1900 10 1A19 Dome Mountain 53.62 -121.02 1766 42 1A21 Narrow Lake 53.58 -121.9 1650 10 1A23 Bird Creek 53.67 -124.34 1180 62 1A24 Forfar Creek (Upper) 54.98 -125.58 1410 6 1B01 Mount Wells 53.73 -126.42 1490 78 1B02 Tahtsa Lake 53.59 -127.66 1300 82 1B05 Skins Lake 53.78 -125.99 890 65 1B06 Mount Swannell 53.34 -125.27 1620 71 1B07 Nutli Lake 53.46 -126.29 1490 75 1C01 Brookmere 49.81 -120.87 980 48 1C05 McGillivray Pass 50.89 -122.62 1725 75 1C06 Pavilion 50.91 -121.82 1230 21 1C07 Lac Le Jeune Lower 50.68 -120.59 1370 18 1C08 Nazko 53.02 -123.65 1070 59 1C09A Highland Valley 50.49 -120.98 1510 35 1C13A Horsefly Mountain 52.34 -121.06 1550 51 1C14 Bralorne 50.77 -122.79 1389 71 1C17 Mount Timothy 51.89 -121.26 1660 90 1C19 Gnawed Mountain 50.43 -120.97 1580 41 1C21 Big Creek 51.71 -123.04 1140 54 1C22 Puntzi Mountain 52.13 -124.09 940 56 Penfold Creek 52.75 -120.56 1685 60 1C23 101 Lac Le Jeune Upper 50.45 -120.49 1509 80 1C28 Duffey Lake 50.38 -122.48 1200 35 1C29 Shovelnose Mountain 49.86 -120.86 1450 57 1C32 Deadman River 51.10 -120.61 1430 37 1C33 Granite Mountain 52.53 -122.27 1175 13 1C33A Granite Mountain 52.53 -122.27 1150 71 1C37 Bralorne (Upper) 50.79 -122.75 1981 64 1C38 Downton Lake Upper 50.86 -123.18 1887 65 1C39 Bridge Glacier Lower 50.85 -123.46 1390 80 1C40 Tyaughton Creek (N) 51.15 -122.79 1947 76 1C42 Caverhill Lake New 51.33 -120.38 1400 26 1D01 Coquitlam Lake 49.36 -122.79 300 1 1D06 Tenquille Lake 50.54 -122.93 1680 16 1D08 Stave Lake 49.58 -122.32 1250 75 1D09 Wahleach Lake 49.23 -121.58 1480 72 1D10 Nahatlatch River 49.83 -122.06 1550 63 1D13 Wolverine Creek 50.51 -122.98 250 16 1D16 Dickson Lake 49.32 -122.07 1160 67 1D18 Disappointment Lake 49.55 -122.76 1050 101 1E01B Blue River 52.17 -119.24 690 1 Blue River 52.13 -119.29 670 79 1E02A Mount Cook 52.18 -119.32 1570 7 1E03A Trophy Mountain 51.81 -119.94 1860 64 1E05 Knouff Lake 50.98 -120.13 1200 40 1E06 Cook Forks 52.17 -119.32 1390 6 1E07 Adams River 51.58 -119.43 1720 100 1E08 Azure River 52.60 -119.72 1640 3 1E13 North Clemina Creek 52.56 -118.95 1860 11 1F01A Aberdeen Lake 50.15 -119.05 1310 56 1F02 Anglemont 50.99 -119.19 1190 63 1F04 Enderby 50.65 -118.93 1900 78 2A01A Canoe River 52.78 -119.27 870 37 2A02 51.25 -117.49 1250 85 2A03A Field 51.39 -116.51 1285 56 2A07 Kicking Horse 51.44 -116.36 1650 86 2A11 Beaverfoot 51.28 -116.88 1890 80 2A14 Mount Abbot 51.24 -117.51 2010 84 2A16 Goldstream 51.70 -118.45 1920 81 2A17 Fidelity Mountain 51.24 -117.69 1870 85 2A18 Keystone Creek 51.41 -118.36 1890 80 2A19 Vermont Creek 50.96 -116.94 1520 80 2A20 Watam Lake 51.33 -118.51 1810 1 Sunbeam Lake 51.59 -117.65 2010 78 1C25 1E01B 2A22 Glacier 102 Bush River 51.72 -117.42 1920 71 2A25 Kirbyville Lake 51.57 -118.77 1750 82 2A27 Downie Slide Lower 51.51 -118.53 980 71 2A29 Downie Slide Upper 51.50 -118.55 1630 77 2B02A Farron 49.27 -118.13 1220 94 2B04 Whatshan Lower 50.13 -117.98 1250 1 2B05 Whatshan Upper 50.19 -118.04 1525 69 2B06 Barnes Creek 50.07 -118.36 1620 55 2B07 Koch Creek 49.72 -117.98 1860 64 2B08 St. Leon Creek 50.44 -117.7 1860 48 2B09 Record Mountain 49.09 -117.87 1890 112 2C01 Sinclair Pass 50.66 -115.96 1370 43 2C04 Sullivan Mine 49.73 -116.02 1550 90 2C07 Fernie East 49.51 -115.02 1250 73 2C09A Morrissey Ridge 49.45 -114.97 1800 5 2C11 Kimberley (Upper) 49.56 -116.08 2140 26 2C12 Kimberley Middle 49.56 -116.05 1680 23 2C14 Floe Lake 51.06 -116.14 2090 56 2C15 Mount Assiniboine 50.92 -115.61 2230 68 2C16 Mount Joffre 50.53 -115.13 1750 79 2C17 Thunder Creek 50.05 -115.23 2010 75 2C20 Vermilion riv. No. 3 51.20 -116.07 1570 27 2D02 Ferguson 50.68 -117.46 880 80 2D03 Sandon 49.98 -117.23 1070 29 2D04 Nelson 49.42 -117.23 930 80 2D05 Gray Creek Lower 49.61 -116.68 1650 75 2D06 Char Creek 49.10 -116.95 1310 104 2D07A Duncan Lake No. 2 50.26 -116.96 630 41 2D09 Mount Templeman 50.72 -117.2 1860 44 2D10 Gray Creek Upper 49.62 -116.66 1930 77 2E01 Monashee Pass 50.08 -118.51 1370 77 2E02 Carmi 49.50 -119.09 1250 37 2E03 Big White Mountain 49.72 -118.97 1680 90 2E06 Bluejoint Mountain 49.54 -118.53 2040 22 2F01 Trout Creek 49.74 -120.18 1430 47 2F01A Trout Creek West 49.74 -120.19 1430 53 2F02 Summerland Res. 49.81 -120.02 1280 78 2F03 McCulloch 49.79 -119.19 1280 55 2F04 Graystoke Lake 49.99 -118.87 1840 69 2F05 Mission Creek 49.94 -118.95 1780 1 2F07 Postill Lake 49.99 -119.21 1370 66 2F08 Greyback Reservoir 49.62 -119.42 1550 74 Whiterocks Mountain 50.02 -119.75 1780 89 2A23 2F09 103 Silver Star Mountain 50.37 -119.06 1840 77 2F11 Isintok Lake 49.55 -119.97 1680 86 2F12 Mount Kobau 49.12 -119.68 1810 107 2F13 Esperon Creek upp. 50.08 -119.74 1620 56 2F14 Esperon Creek mid. 50.07 -119.7 1420 29 2F18 Brenda Mine 49.86 -119.98 1460 32 2F19 Oyama Lake 50.12 -119.28 1340 63 2F20 Vaseux Creek 49.28 -119.33 1400 49 2F21 Bouleau Lake 50.28 -119.65 1400 50 2F23 MacDonald Lake 49.88 -120.03 1740 51 2F24 Islaht Lake 49.99 -119.81 1480 73 2F25 Postill Lake Upper 49.96 -119.21 1540 33 2G04 Lost Horse Mountain 49.28 -120.13 1940 75 2G05 Missezula Mountain 49.74 -120.54 1550 76 2G06 Hamilton Hill 49.49 -120.79 1490 68 3A01 Grouse Mountain 49.38 -123.08 1100 81 3A02 Powell River (Upper) 50.27 -124.33 1040 15 3A05 Powell River Lower 50.26 -124.34 910 15 3A09 Palisade Lake 49.45 -123.03 880 44 3A10 Dog Mountain 49.37 -122.96 1080 119 3A19 Orchid Lake 49.54 -123.05 1190 112 3A20 Callaghan Creek 50.14 -123.1 1040 75 3A26 Chapman Creek 49.58 -123.59 1022 15 3A27 Edwards Lake 49.59 -123.63 1070 13 Forbidden Plateau 49.65 -125.21 1100 83 3B02A Mount Cokely 49.25 -124.59 1190 29 3B04 Elk upp. riv. 49.86 -125.82 270 36 3B10 Thelwood Lake 49.52 -125.7 990 46 3B13 Heather Mountain 48.94 -124.45 1170 5 3B18 Wolf River Middle 49.71 -125.7 990 77 3B19 Wolf River Lower 49.72 -125.7 640 65 3B22 Tennent Lake 49.58 -125.64 1134 4 3B24 Heather mt. upp. 48.94 -124.45 1190 4 3C07 Wedeene River South 54.23 -128.73 220 36 3D01C Sumallo River West 49.25 -121.25 790 55 3D02 49.05 -120.85 1220 51 3D03A Klesilkwa 49.13 -121.31 1175 65 4A01 Mcleod Lake 54.55 -122.53 980 1 4A02 Pine Pass 55.35 -122.64 1450 59 4A03 Ware (Upper) 57.39 -125.71 1575 85 4A04 Ware Lower 57.41 -125.67 970 78 4A05 Germansen Upper 55.82 -124.69 1480 84 Tutizzi Lake 56.31 -12559 1045 84 2F10 3B01 4A06 Lightning Lake 104 Lady Laurier Lake 56.70 -123.75 1440 84 4A09 Pulpit Lake 57.55 -126.75 1335 83 4A10 Fredrickson Lake 56.95 -126.52 1325 84 4A11 Trygve Lake 56.99 -127.46 1410 78 4A12 Tsaydaychi Lake 55.42 -124.76 1190 84 4A13 Philip Lake 55.11 -123.89 1035 82 4A14 Pink Mountain 57.03 -122.51 1170 6 4A16 Morfee Mountain 55.42 -123.04 1430 82 4A18 Mount Sheba 54.53 -121.8 1490 82 Mackenzie Airport 55.30 -123.14 700 3 4A19A Mackenzie Airport 55.18 -123.08 700 3 4A20 Monkman Creek 54.73 -121.23 1570 72 4A21 Mount Stearns 57.07 -123.40 1505 85 4A25 Fort St. John Airport 56.24 -120.73 690 57 4A28 Bullhead Mountain 56.03 -122.10 798 10 4B01 Kidprice Lake 53.86 -127.44 1370 79 Johanson Lake 56.60 -126.18 1420 83 4B03A Hudson Bay Mt. 54.77 -127.28 1480 116 4B04 Chapman Lake 54.88 -126.73 1460 55 4B06 Tachek Creek 54.64 -126.29 1140 60 4B07 McKendrick Creek 54.80 -126.8 1050 57 4B08 Mount Cronin 54.93 -126.81 1480 55 4B10 Ningunsaw Pass 56.78 -129.95 690 52 4B11A Bear Pass 56.10 -129.63 460 46 4B13A Terrace Airport 54.47 -128.58 180 50 4B14 Equity Mine 54.19 -126.25 1420 50 4B15 Lu Lake 54.20 -126.3 1300 50 4C01 Sikanni Lake 57.26 -124.13 1385 83 4C02 Summit Lake 58.65 -124.72 1280 46 4C03 Dease Lake 58.43 -130.01 820 60 4C05 Fort Nelson Airport 58.84 -122.57 380 59 4C09 Deadwood River 59.26 -128.33 1300 3 4C15 Jade City 59.24 -129.66 940 51 4D01 Telegraph Creek 57.95 -131.14 580 29 4D02 Iskut 57.85 -129.99 1000 40 4D10 Tumeka Creek 57.24 -129.71 1220 3 4D11 Kinaskan Lake 57.58 -130.27 1020 3 4D14 Wade Lake 58.19 -128.91 1370 3 Log Cabin 59.76 -134.97 900 57 4E02A Atlin Lake 59.59 -133.73 710 22 4E02B 59.59 -133.71 730 39 4A07 4A19 4B02 4E01 Atlin Lake 105 Appendix D: Automated snow pillows and the number of days (n) with valid SWE and depth measurements (BC, 2021a). Pillow Name 1A01P 1A02P 1A03P 1A05P 1A12P 1A14P 1A15P 1A17P 1A19P 1C14P 1C29P 1C41P 1D06P 1D17P 1D18P 1D19P 1E02P 1E08P 1E10P 1E14P 1F03P 1F04P 1F06P Yellowhead Lake McBride Upper Barkerville Longworth Upper Kaza Lake Hedrick Lake Knudsen Lake Revolution Creek Dome Mountain Bralorne Shovelnose Mountain Yanks Peak Tenquille Lake Chilliwack River Disappointment Lake Spuzzum Mount Cook Azure River Kostal Lake Cook Creek Park Mountain Enderby Celista 2C10P 2D14P 2E07P 2F01AP 2F05P 2F08P 2F10P 2G03P 3A09P 3A20P 3A22P 3A24P 3A25P 3A28P 3B23P 3B24P 3B26P Moyie Mountain Redfish Creek Grano Creek Trout Creek West Mission Creek Greyback Reservoir Silver Star Mountain Blackwall Peak Palisade Lake Callaghan Nostetuko River Mosley Creek Upper Squamish River Upper Tetrahedron Jump Creek Heather Mountain Upper Mount Arrowsmith Latitude (N) Longitude (W) Elevation (m.a.s.l.) n 52.915 53.308 53.051 53.951 56.021 54.102 54.303 53.796 53.627 50.775 49.856 52.830 50.542 49.017 49.555 49.661 52.169 52.596 52.203 52.168 50.441 50.653 51.407 49.254 49.695 49.559 49.740 49.949 49.616 50.371 49.085 49.454 50.137 51.237 51.779 50.153 49.598 48.970 48.944 49.207 -118.542 -120.317 -121.491 -121.443 -126.298 -121.003 -120.783 -120.373 -121.017 -122.789 -120.863 -121.356 -122.932 -121.712 -122.758 -121.661 -119.322 -119.723 -120.017 -119.304 -118.627 -118.927 -118.999 1860 1611 1520 1740 1257 1100 1601 1690 1774 1382 1460 1670 1680 1600 1050 1180 1550 1652 1770 1280 1890 1950 1500 1930 2104 1860 1420 1780 1550 1839 1940 900 1017 1500 1650 1340 1420 1160 1190 1465 4472 3589 4129 1093 1305 4964 1312 3883 4036 641 497 4769 4070 4328 770 4288 4253 4007 2994 2121 2893 1331 4099 106 -115.779 -117.085 -118.678 -120.189 -118.949 -119.423 -119.062 -120.779 -123.032 -123.103 -124.458 -124.627 -123.441 -123.605 -124.276 -124.452 -124.568 4790 4965 4151 746 4502 922 1410 4962 663 230 2846 3241 4189 689 4006 1111 737 3C08P 4A02P 4A09P 4A27P 4A30P 4A36P 4B15P 4B16P 4B17P 4B18P 4D11P Burnt Bridge Creek Pine Pass Pulpit Lake Kwadacha North Aiken Lake Parsnip Upper Lu Lake Shedin Creek Tsai Creek Cedar-Kiteen Kinaskan Lake 52.474 55.353 57.549 57.623 56.437 54.606 54.197 55.862 54.646 55.153 57.579 107 -126.237 -122.637 -126.748 -125.073 -125.742 -122.138 -126.304 -127.698 -127.674 -128.712 -130.263 1330 1400 1311 1554 1050 790 1300 1480 1360 885 1020 3750 1551 1762 944 1472 580 4109 4493 4825 3671 1290