SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCES AND STAND DYNAMICS IN INONOTUS TOMENTOSUS INFECTED AND UNINFECTED OLD-GROWTH AND PARTIAL CUT WET, SUB-BOREAL FORESTS IN BRITISH COLUMBIA by Jules (Ted) Newbery B.Sc. The University of Northern British Columbia, 1997 THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE in NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT ©Jules (Ted) Newbery, 2001 THE UNIVERSITY OF NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA May 2001 All rights reserved. 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Neither the thesis nor substantial extracts hom it may be printed or otherwise reproduced without 6e author’s permission. L’auteur conserve la propriété du droit d’auteur 0.05) loss in explanatory power. The variables were initially screened using bivariate regressions and correlation matrices, to examine linearity and multicollinearity. Needle presence, fine branch presence, and primary branch presence were eliminated from analysis due to very poor correlation (R^ < 0.05) with years since death and high collinearity between them. Interactions between the position of the tree and the remaining explanatory variables were tested. These analyses were performed by plotting each variable for each position and comparing the slopes using standard procedures (Fox 1991). Significant interactions were found and justified the splitting of each species into a positional model (standing and down). Ordinary least squares regression was then used to develop each model. The models were then externally validated by estimating time since death on an independent sample (dates of death unknown) of previously dominant or co-dominant dead trees (n = 48, 27 spruce, 21 fir). The decomposition variables were collected and increment cores were taken from one nearby understory tree for each dead tree. Estimated dates of death 36 from the TSD model were regressed on dates of understory tree release (for trees releasing at least 50%) determined from the increment cores using ordinary least squares regression. 37 2.3 RESULTS For both species, all variables had a significant linear relationship to years since death (Table 1) as determined by bivariate linear regression analysis. It appeared that proportion of decay had a non-linear relationship with years since death, however, no transformation improved the value. Therefore these data were considered to be best described by a linear model. For both species, years since death was most strongly related to decay class (Table 1). Since position is a binomial category, linearity cannot be evaluated, however, for both species the trend indicates that downed logs are older than standing logs. A correlation matrix (Table 2) shows relationships among the independent variables. For both species, decay class is highly correlated with proportion of decay and bark class is highly correlated with bark integrity. This is because each pair of variables is measuring similar attributes; the degree of decomposition on a tree’s main bole and the bark retention on the tree, respectively. To determine the degree of influence multicollinearity had on the models, variable inflation factor analysis was conducted. Variable inflation factors (VIF) are equal to 1/(1R^), where the R^ is equal to the coefficient of determination for one explanatory variable regressed against the other explanatory variables. The higher the regression coefficients between some set of explanatory variables, the higher the VIF (StatSoft 1997). Thus, a high VIF (>9) indicates that collinearity is strongly affecting the precision of estimation (Fox 1991). For both spruce and fir, no VIF exceeds 9 for all possible combinations, therefore the multicollinearity is not extreme (StatSoft 1997) which justified keeping highly correlated predictor variables in the model. 38 Interactions between position and all the remaining explanatory variables were assessed independently for each species by plotting each predictor variable against years since death at the two levels of position. For spruce (p = 0.009) and fir (p = 0.047) a significant interaction between position and decay class was found indicating that for both species, decomposition rates of the main bole are faster in down trees. These interactions were justified by separating each species model into two models based on position. Thus four models, ((2) species x (2) position) were generated, each using the following predictor variables: decay class, branch integrity, fine branch flexibility, bark class, bark integrity, and proportion of decay. The mixed model for each species (Table 3a and 3b; Figures 1 and 2) indicates that the explanatory variables explain a significant proportion of the variation in years since death, and range from a low of the down spruce model to a high of = 75.30% for = 87.30% for the standing spruce model. 2.31 Model Validation: Using an independent sample, the year of death for 48 dead trees (27 spruce and 21 fir) was estimated with one of the four TSD models and then death dates were compared to year of tree ring release measured on near by understory trees with ordinary least squares regression (Figure 3). The two estimates of tree mortality were very close (R^ = 92.4%). Note the regression line does not intersect the x and y axis in a perfect 1:1 relationship. For older mortality the regression line falls slightly above the x-y intersections and slightly below for recent mortality. This is likely because of continual increasing variance in the TSD model estimate with increasing values of the tree ring estimate as seen in the data (Figure 3). 39 2.4 DISCUSSION The TSD models developed from dead tree characteristics accurately predicted time since death for spruce and fir in the wet SBS forests of central interior British Columbia. The results suggest that the TSD models can be used to estimate the year of death for spruce and fir with a minimum diameter of 10 cm DBH up to about 70 years since death. These estimates can be applied towards describing disturbance history in the SBSwkl forests around Aleza Lake. The relative importance of the explanatory variables can be attributed to their “longevity of measurability”. For instance, fine branches fall off the tree quickly following mortality. Thus, they are irrelevant in predicting mortality beyond the time they disappear yet, to remove them from the model would eliminate the most sensitive variables in estimating recent mortality. This suggests that variables which are sensitive to recent mortality as well as older mortality are most useful in terms of their predictive capability. With respect to the variables examined here, decay class, bark integrity, bark class and proportion of decay would be the most widely useful predictors of years since death because they blend the ability to be sensitive to recent as well as past mortality. The heteroscedasticity present in these variables is caused by larger variance in the last category o f each variable relative to the preceding categories. For example, the condition o f no bark class had the widest variation relative to intact, variable and notintact bark class. This is because once the condition of no bark is reached the tree is always described as a tree with no bark and therefore, a large variation in time since death arises. The same arguments could also be made for the all the other variables. This is a limitation in the measurement of these variables that cannot be adequately addressed due to the finite nature o f the variables. 40 Due to the range in years since death encountered in this study, as well as the increasing variance in the error term (heteroscedasticity) in the explanatory variables, this model must be restricted to estimating death to about 70 years before present, which was the approximate range in years since death encountered at the Aleza Lake Research Forest. However even if the records at the ALRF did go back 100 years (or more), none of the current predictor variables would be reliable for estimation since they all will experience severe heteroscedasticity with increasing time since death. Radiocarbon dating, bulk density and nutrient flux functions like those used by Grier (1978), Graham and Cromack (1982), and Sollins (1982), could be used to extend the estimate. This study’s findings coincide with a few studies which have also examined morphological characteristics of decay and their relationship to years since death. It was found that about 97% of the trees sampled in the present study lose 99% of the fine branches and needles after 12 years. In the Sierra Nevada, Raphael and Morrison (1987) reported Abies (spp.) and Pinus (spp.) lose all needles and fine branches after 5 years. Graham and Cromack (1982) reported strong correlations between year o f death and decay rate using a similar classification as the decay class variable in the present study for Picea sitchensis (R^= 0.421) and Tsuga heterophylla (R^= 0.227) in Olympic National Park in Washington, USA. The present study showed a similar strong correlation for spruce (R^= 0.581) and fir (R^= 0.690) (Table 1) for the qualitative measure of decay class. This study’s classification of decay class also corresponds to the decay class system of Daniels et al. (1997). The present study’s results show both fir and spruce decay much quicker than Thuja plicata studied by Daniels et al. (1997) (Table 4). Both the larger tree size of coastal Thuja plicata, the cold, relatively dry climate of the sub41 boreal forest relative to coastal ecosystems and the acknowledged resistance of Thuja plicata to decay are likely responsible for these large discrepancies. For the present study it was noted that spruce seems to decay faster than fir (Table 4). The documented negative correlation for decay rate and tree size (Harmon et al. 1986) combined with the fact that larger snags usually stand longer than small snags (Raphael and Morrison 1987) suggests that fir should decay faster than spruce because spruce is generally a larger tree in this system and therefore should remain standing longer. Furthermore, published information about resistance to decay places both Picea spp. and Abies spp. as species with low resistance to decay. Therefore, it seems plausible that the faster decay rate of spruce could be attributed to different types of decay fungi rather than differences in the extractives found in the wood itself. 42 2.5 CONCLUSIONS By accurately estimating the year of death for trees, the TSD models can be used as tools to quantify the date of tree mortality in forest stands. These data can then be used in disturbance studies to quantify spatiotemporal patterns of disturbance in wet-cool, SBSwkl forests. Given the limitations of the range of estimation, disturbance studies in wet sub-boreal forests using this method alone should be restricted to 70 years before present. Although this period will not span the time since stand establishment in old forests, it can provide fine detail on disturbance dynamics over a short time and be used in forests where other methodologies are relatively ineffective. Combined with indirect techniques like those developed by Lorimer and Frelich (1989), Frelich and Lorimer (1991), Frelich and Graumlich (1994), Abrams et al. (1995), Frelich and Reich (1995), and Cherubini (1996), the TSD results can be used to quantify medium and fine-scaled disturbances and their interactions. 43 2.6 LITERATURE CITED Abrams, M.D., Orwid, D.A. and Demeo, T.E. 1995. Dendroecological analysis of successional dynamics for a presettlement origin white-pine-mixed-oak forest in the southern Appalachians, USA. Jour. Ecol. 83:123-133. Assman. 1970. The principles of forest yield study. Permagon Press. Oxford England. Carpenter, S.E., Harmon, M.E., Ingham, E.R., Kelsey, R.G., Lattin, J.D. and Schowalter, T.D. 1988. Early patterns of heterotroph activity in conifer logs. Proc. R. Soc. Edinb. Sect B. (Biol). 94:33-43. Cherubini, P., Piussi, P. and Schweingrubber, F.H. 1996. Spatiotemporal growth dynamics and disturbances in a sub-alpine spruce forest in the Alps: a dendroecological reconstruction. Can. J. For. Res. 26:991-1001. Daniels, L.D., Dobry, J., Klinka, K.K. and Fuller, M.C. 1997. Determining year of death of logs and snags of Thuja plicata in southwestern coastal British Columbia. Can. J. For. Res. 27:1132-1141. Fox, J. 1991. Regression Diagnostics. Sage University Paper series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, 07-050. Beverly Hills and London: Sage Publications. Frelich, L. E. and Graumlich, L.J. 1994. Age-class distribution and spatial patterns in an old-growth hemlock hardwood forest. Can. J. For. Res. 24:1939-1947. Frelich, L.E. and Lorimer, C.G. 1991. Natural disturbance regimes in hemlockhardwood forests of the Upper Great Lakes Region. Ecological Monographs 61 : 145-164. Frelich, L.E. and Reich, P.B. 1995. Spatial patterns and succession in a Minnesota southern-boreal forest. Ecological Monographs. 65:325-346. Graham, R.L. and Cromack, K., Jr. 1982. Mass, nutrient content and decay rate of dead boles in rain forests of Olympic National Park. Can. J. For. Res. 12:511-521. Grier, C.G. 1978. A Tsuga heterophylla - Picea sitchensis ecosystem of coastal Oregon: decomposition and nutrient balances of fallen logs. Can. J. For. Res. 8:198-206. Harmon, M.E., Sexton, J., Cladwell, B.A. and Carpenter, S.E. 1994. Fungal sporopcarp mediated losses of Ca, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, N, P and Zn from conifer logs in the early stages of decomposition. Can. J. For. Res. 24:1883-1893. Henry, J.D. and Swan, J.M.A. 1974. Reconstructing forest history from live and dead plant material - an approach to the study of forest succession in southwest New Hampshire. Ecology 55:722-783. 44 Holland, S.S. 1976. Landforms of British Columbia: a physiographic outline. Bulletin 48, British Columbia Department of Mines and Petroleum Resources. Victoria, British Columbia. Kelsey, R.G. and Harmon, M.E. 1989. Distribution and variation of extractable total phenols and tannins in the logs of four conifers after 1 year on the ground. Can. J. For. Res. 19:1030-1036. Kneeshaw, D.D. and Bergeron, Y. 1998. Canopy gap characteristics and tree replacement in the southeastern boreal forest. Ecology 4(3):783-794. Johnson, E.A., Miyanishi, K. and Kleb, H. 1994. The hazards of interpretation of static age structures as shown by stand reconstruction’s in a Pinus conforta - Picea engelmannii forest. J. Ecol. 89:923-931. Kubota, Y. 1995. Effects of disturbance and size structure on the regeneration process in a sub-boreal coniferous forest, northern Japan. Ecological Research 10:135-142. Lertzman, K.P. 1992. Patterns of gap-phase replacement in a sub-alpine, old-growth forest. Ecology 78(2):657-669. Lewis - Beck, M. 1980. Applied regression: an introduction. Sage University Paper series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, 07-022. Beverly Hills and London: Sage Publications. Lorimer, C.G., Frelich, L.E. and Nordheim, E.V. 1988. Estimating gap origin probabilities for canopy trees. Ecology 69(3):778-785. Meidinger, D. and Pojar, J. 1991. Ecosystems of British Columbia. Research Branch, Ministry of Forests. Crown Publications Inc. 330 pp. Raphael, M.G. and Morrison, M L. 1987. Decay and dynamics of snags in the Sierra Nevada, California. For. Sci. 33(3):774-783. Sollins, P. 1982. Input and decay of coarse woody debris in coniferous forests in western Oregon and Washington. Can. J. For. Res.12:18-28. StatSoft, Inc. (1997). STATISTICA for Windows [Computer program manual]. Tulsa, OK: StatSoft, Inc., 2300 East 14th Street, Tulsa, OK. Veblen, T.T. 1986. Treefalls and the coexistence of conifers in sub-alpine forests of the central Rockies. Ecology 67(3):644-649. Veblen, T.T., Hadley, K.S., Nel, E.M., Kitzberger, T., Reid, M. and Villalba, R. 1994. Disturbance regime and disturbance interactions in a Rocky Mountain sub-alpine forest. Journal of Ecology 82:125-135. 45 Yamamoto, S. 1995. Gap characteristics and gap regeneration in sub-alpine old-growth coniferous forests, central Japan. Ecological Research 10:31-39. Yong, B., Huacheng, X., Bergeron, Y. and Kneeshaw, D.D. 1998. Gap regeneration of shade-intolerant Larix gmelini in old-growth boreal forests of northeastern China. Journal of Vegetation Seience 9:529-536. 46 2.7 APPENDIX Data are presented here to provide the reader with the primary data collected from the dead trees in the permanent sample plots. See section 2.2 METHODS for description of categories. E.P. Plot # 106 Dead Tree Num ber Species Position Density Depth of Decay Primary Branch Integrity Primary Branch Presence Fine Branch Flexibility Fine Branch Presence Bark Presence Bark Integrity Year of Death 2 Spruce Down 4 Fir Down 106 261 Fir Down 106 14 Spruce Down 14 14 0 10 106 18 Fir Down 106 Spruce Down 106 22 25 Fir Down 106 26 Spruce Down 106 32 Spruce Down 106 268 Fir Down 106 70 Spruce Down 106 498 Fir Standing 106 72 Spruce Down 106 71 Spruce Down 497 Fir Down 76 Spruce Down 474 Fir Standing 106 84 Spruce Standing 106 48 Fir Down 106 Spruce Down 106 92 99 Spruce Down 106 422 Fir Standing 106 Fir Standing Spruce Standing Fir Standing 106 423 34 30 29 Spruce Standing 409 Fir Standing 106 246 Spruce Standing 106 278 Spruce Down 106 45 Fir Down 106 Spruce Down 106 88 288 Spruce Down 106 255 Fir Standing 106 65 Fir Down 3 1 1 3 3 3 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 1 3 1 4 4 2 4 4 4 4 4 2 1 4 1 4 4 1 4 1 1 4 4 4 1 1 1 2 2 106 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 1 2 3 3 3 1 1 2 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 3 3 1 106 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 1 4 3 1 3 1 1 3 3 3 1 1 1 2 4 1 2 2 2 2 4 4 3 3 1 4 2 2 4 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 106 3 3 1 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 2 2 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 106 5 5 1 2 4 5 4 4 2 2 3 1 3 3 1 2 1 1 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 3 3 1 3 1 1 2 3 1 1 1945 106 1 2 106 106 106 79 Fir Down 106 15 Spruce Standing 106 5 Spruce Down 106 1 Spruce Standing 106 12 Spruce Standing 106 20 Spruce Down 106 24 Spruce Down 106 23 Fir Down 106 46 Spruce Standing 15 11 12.05 10 1.5 5.5 0 13^ 16 0 1 0 0 15 12.5 9 0 0 0 1 24 0 0 1 1 1 5 1 2 12 0 25 0 0 2 2 0 0 1 1 3 3 1 3 2 1 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 3 3 2 1 1932 1977 1977 1932 1932 1932 1950 1960 1977 1977 1995 1955 1950 1995 1977 1995 1995 1945 1977 1955 1995 1995 1995 1977 1977 1 1995 3 3 3 3 4 2 4 4 1977 1 1995 4 1 3 4 2 2 1 1977 47 1990 1977 1990 1977 1977 1955 1950 1995 1990 1960 1977 1977 1995 106 420 Fir Standing 106 51 Fir Down 106 423 Fir Down 106 59 Spruce Down 106 63 Fir Down 106 60 Spruce Standing 106 306 Spruce Standing 106 61 Spruce Down 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 112 51 Spruce Down 112 56 Fir Standing 112 60 Fir Standing 2 2 2 3 1 2 4 3 1 2 5 3 4 5 2 3 3 2 2 106 73 Spruce Down 106 74 Fir Down 112 422 Fir Down 112 7 Fir Down 112 18 Spruce Standing 112 22 Spruce Standing 112 30 Fir Down 112 48 Spruce Down 112 430 Fir Down 112 131 Spruce Down 112 95 Spruce Down 112 46 Fir Down 112 45 Spruce Down 112 50 Spruce Down 112 55 Spruce Standing 112 44 Spruce Down 112 15 Spruce Standing 1 112 36 Fir Down 112 412 Fir Standing 112 92 Spruce Down 112 433 Spruce Down 112 59 Fir Standing 112 381 Fir Standing 112 55 Spruce Down 112 379 Spruce Standing 112 62 Fir Standing 2 2 2 2 3 1 2 1 3 Standing 1 Standing 112 384 Spruce 107 1 Fir Standing 107 27 Fir Standing 1 1 1 1 Standing 1 Standing 1 1 1 2 112 112 107 107 399 67 28 29 Spruce Spruce Spruce Spruce Down 107 10 Fir Standing 107 19 Spruce Standing 107 20 Fir Standing 107 21 Spruce Standing 107 22 Fir Down 107 2 Fir Down 107 8 Fir Down 3 2 107 10 Fir Standing 1 107 11 Fir Standing 107 13 Fir Standing 107 16 Spruce Standing 2 1 3 1 1 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 2 1 17 0 1 25.9 15 0 1 4.7 3.5 11 6 2.5 15 26 1.5 0 1 5 1 4 2 4 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 3.5 1.5 0 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 2 0 25 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 1 1 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 1 3 4 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 1 3 3 4 3 1 4 3 4 4 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 2 3 2 1 3 3 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 1 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 3 1 2 3 3 3 2 3 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 1 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 1 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 1 3 1 2 3 1 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 4 1 1 1995 1977 1995 1977 1960 1990 1 1977 2 2 2 4 4 3 4 4 4 2 2 4 4 4 4 2 4 4 2 2 3 4 4 2 2 4 2 2 1 2 1977 1 1977 1 1 1977 1 1995 1 1 1 1984 1977 1955 1977 1950 1977 1955 1935 1977 1977 1990 1935 1977 1950 1945 1977 1977 1977 1960 I960 1977 1977 1977 1990 1977 1977 1977 1977 1990 1977 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 3 2 1 1990 1 2 3 1990 1 1 1984 3 3 1 4 2 2 3 1940 1 1971 4 1930 1 1 3 48 1990 1990 1990 1971 1971 1955 1971 1960 107 1 4 0 1 1 1 0 2 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 6 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 Down 2 Fir Down 1 Spruce Standing 1 Fir Standing 1 549 Fir Standing 81 Fir Standing 15 107 273 107 107 107 288 107 107 Fir 23 3 107 18 Fir Standing 5 3 10 3 107 536 Spruce Standing 1 0 1 107 22 Fir Standing 2 1 1 107 23 Fir Down 2 1 1 107 326 323 286 Spruce Standing 1 0 1 Fir Down 1 0 3 2 4 3 2 3 4 2 3 Fir Standing ] 0 1 1 107 29 Fir Down 39 Fir Down 107 31 Fir Down 14 17 12 23 2 107 3 1 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 107 107 2 107 32 Fir Down 5 5 3 5 107 293 Spruce Standing 1 0 1 2 2 107 45 Fir Down 42 Fir Down 16 13 1 107 4 4 3 3 150 2 Fir Standing 5 5 1 0 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 150 340 Fir Standing 2 1 2 1 1 1 150 9 Fir Down 2 1 150 19 Fir Down 1 0 3 3 150 21 Fir Down 1 0 1 3 3 3 150 15 Fir Standing 1 0 2 150 22 Fir Standing 1 0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 150 27 Fir Down 11 1 150 28 Fir Down 3 4 10 1 150 45 Spruce Standing 1 0 1 150 46 Fir Standing 2 2 1 4 4 2 2 150 51 Fir Standing 1 0 1 2 150 68 Spruce Down 3 2 1 3 1 2 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 4 1930 1 1 1995 1 1 1995 1 1 1990 2 3 3 3 1 1995 4 2 1930 1 1995 1990 3 3 3 2 4 4 2 1 1 1990 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 1930 1 1 1971 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 2 1930 2 1977 1 1977 1 1 2 1 1 1 1995 3 3 4 4 1936 1 1 1984 1 2 1990 1 1 1990 3 1984 I 2 2 2 1 2 1984 1 1 1977 3 1 2 1990 1 1984 1 3 1971 1971 1971 1971 1930 1930 19.30 1935 1990 1984 1977 1977 19.36 150 70 Spruce Down 2 2 150 73 Fir Down 2 2 150 75 Fir Down 2 2 3 3 150 82 Fir Down 1 0 1 1 2 150 88 Fir Down 1 0 1 1 2 150 87 Spruce Standing 1 0 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 150 95 Fir Standing 1 0 1 1 2 1 1 1 1990 150 106 Spruce Standing 1 0 1 1 2 1 1990 345 Fir Standing ] 0 1 1 1 1 1995 150 312 Fir Down 1 0 1 1 1995 331 Fir Down 1 0 1 3 1 3 3 2 150 4 1977 150 116 Fir Standing 1 1 1 1 1 1995 150 119 Fir Down 1 1.5 0 3 2 3 3 3 1 150 1 2 1990 118 Fir Down 1 0 1 3 3 2 150 3 1 150 120 Fir Down 1 0 1 2 2 1990 1 0 2 1 17 1 2 2 2 3 1 0 1 1 2 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 150 122 Fir Down 150 125 Spruce Down 150 131 Fir Standing 150 134 Fir Standing 150 132 Fir Down 150 328 Fir Down 1 0 150 133 Fir Down 2 2.5 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 1 1960 1977 1995 1 1 1990 3 1950 1 4 1 1 1 1995 1 3 3 2 1990 49 1995 1977 1984 150 137 Fir Down 150 138 Fir Down 150 140 Fir Standing 150 145 Spruce Down 150 147 Fir Down 150 149 Fir Down 149 153 Fir Standing 149 195 Spruce Down 149 169 Fir Down 149 198 Fir Standing 149 285 Fir Standing 149 255 Fir Down 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 149 316 Fir Standing 1 0 149 318 Fir Down 8 149 409 Fir Standing 3 1 149 385 Spruce Standing 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 149 28 Fir Standing 149 210 Fir Standing 149 220 Fir Standing 149 217 Fir Standing 149 284 Fir Down 1 1 3 1 3 149 258 Fir Standing 1 149 279 Spruce Standing 149 274 Fir Standing 1 1 149 303 Spruce Standing 1 149 302 Fir Standing ] 149 372 Spruce Standing 149 241 Fir Standing 149 186 Fir Standing 149 189 Fir Down 1 1 2 2 0 0 1 1 0 1.5 0 0 1 0 1.5 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.5 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 2 3 2 1 3 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 1 3 1 1 1 3 3 3 1 1 3 3 3 4 1 4 2 2 2 2 1 4 2 2 1 1 2 1977 1 1971 4 3 1 2 1 1 1 3 3 3 50 1984 1977 1960 1955 1960 1995 1971 1960 1971 1984 1984 1990 1971 1984 1971 1995 1971 1971 1971 1984 1990 1984 1990 1995 1990 1984 1971 1971 Table 1. Bivariate regression statistics for each explanatory variable regressed (bivariate regression analysis) against years since death used in preliminary analysis to detect for linearity for each species. VARIABLE Fir (n = 114) Spruce (n = 69) R" P R^ P Decay Class 0.581 <0.001 0.690 <0.001 Proportion of Decay 0.495 <0.001 0.612 <0.001 Bark Integrity 0.516 <0.001 0.594 <0.001 Bark Class 0.469 <0.001 &582 <0.001 Branch Integrity 0.466 <0.001 0.639 <0.001 Fine Branch Flexibility 0.324 <0.001 0.424 <0.001 Position 0.179 <0.001 0.181 <&001 51 Table 2. Correlation matrix for spruce and fir models. The number of correlations amongst explanatory variables that exceed r = 0.8 indicates the degree of multicollinearity in the overall model. Bold values indicate a combination of variables with significant multicollinearity. Spruce POSITION DECAY BRANCH CLASS INTEGRITY FINE BARK BARK PROPORTION BRANCH CLASS INTEGRITY OF DECAY FLEXIBILITY P osition D ec a y C ia ss 0.650 Branch Integrity 0.072 0.264 Fine Branch Flexibility 0.450 0.536 0.138 Bark C la ss 0.605 0.684 0.179 0.671 Bark Integrity 0.612 0.679 0.227 0.641 0 .8 3 2 Proportion of D ec a y 0.562 0 .8 4 9 0.293 0.516 0.676 Fir POSITION Decay BRANCH Class INTEGRITY 0.689 FINE PROPORTION BARK BARK BRANCH CLASS INTEGRITY OF DECAY FLEXIBILITY P osition D e c a y C ia ss 0.324 Branch integrity 0.037 0.151 Fine Branch Flexibility 0.305 0.489 0.157 Bark C la ss 0.417 0.671 0.107 0.454 Bark Integrity 0.460 0.727 0.088 0.447 0 .8 4 0 Proportion of D ec a y 0.327 0 .8 3 5 0.127 0.422 0.609 0.664 52 Table 3a. Summary of regression statistics for the spruce models. For both standing and down trees, both models were significant (°c = 0.05), but many of the partial slope coefficients were not significant due to the heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity. ST A N D IN G DOWN R S q u are A djusted 0.873 0.800 0.753 0.588 R oot Mean S quare Error 6.147 10.414 Mean of R esp o n se 14.636 28.472 O bserv atio n s 33 36 SUMMARY OF MODEL FIT; S P R U C E R S quare ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE DEGREES OF FREEDOM Source Model Standing 12 Error C Total 20 32 SUM OF SQUARES MEAN SQUARE F - RATIO Down Standing Down Standing Down Standing Down 14 21 5188.027 755.607 5943.634 6945.666 2277.306 9222.972 432.336 37.780 496.119 108.443 11.443 <0.0001 4.575 0.0009 35 EFFECT TEST DEGREES OF FREEDOM SUM OF SQUARES Source Standing Down Standing Down Decay Class Branch Integrity 2 2 4 2 638.881 158.324 2359.423 63.657 Fine Branch Flexibility Bark Class Bark Integrity Proportion of Decay 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 305.934 10.943 298.367 117.380 358.263 194.782 54.536 114.371 F -RATIO PROBABILITY > F Down Standing Down Standing 8.455 2.095 4.049 0.145 3.949 5.439 0.294 1.652 0.898 0.252 0.002 0.004 0.149 0.033 0.866 0.036 0.749 3.107 1.331 0.093 0.216 0.422 0.780 0.262 53 Table 3b. Summary of regression statistics for the fir models. For both standing and down trees, both models were significant (<%= 0.05), but many of the partial slope coefficients were not significant due to the heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity. SUM MARY OF MODEL FIT; FIR S T A N D IN G DOWN 0.768 0.691 0.847 R S q u are R S q u are A djusted 0.800 R oot Mean S q u are E rror 7.202 9.661 Mean of R esp o n se 14.302 31.230 O b serv atio n s 53 61 ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE DEGREES OF FREEDOM SUM OF SQUARES MEAN SQUARE F - RATIO Standing Down Source Standing Down Standing Down Standing Down Model 13 39 14 46 6704.430 2022.734 23777.154 515.725 1693.370 9.444 18.196 Error 4293.633 51.865 93.340 <0.0001 <0.0001 C Total 52 60 8727.167 28070.787 EFFEC T TEST DEGREES OF FREEDOM SUM OF SQUARES F - RATIO PROBABILITY > F Source Standing Down Standing Down Standing Down Standing Down Decay Class Brancti Integrity 3 2 4 2 1349.623 9.642 798.058 263.915 8.674 0.093 2.138 1.414 0.091 0.254 Fine Branch Flexibility Bark Class Bark Integrity Proportion of Decay 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1393.927 345.451 1015.112 208.686 378.869 271.540 13.430 3.331 2.435 5.438 1.118 0.9697 0.0002 0.911 <0.0001 1 64.156 792.044 1.237 8.486 0.040 0.080 0.008 0.336 0.415 0.273 0.006 54 Table 4. Comparison of mean years since death and Decay Class for Thuja plicata (Cedar) reported by Daniels et al., (1997) and spruce and fir (this study). Decay Cedar Fir Spruce Class Standing Down Standing Down Standing Down 1 - 3.5 12 15 10 13 2 - 50 27 23 19 28 3 276 279 67 24 23 45 4 122 1200 - 47 67 63 5 150 - - 56 - 66 55 2020 S CD E ■S5 LU 20 0 0 - CD X3 O 1980 - CD CD Q O 1960 cô ■a CD ro E 1940 - % LU 1920 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 A ctual Y ear o f D eath (S a m p le Plot R eco rd s) • O standing Spruce Standing Spruce Regression = 0.873 Down Spruce Down Spruce Regression R =0.753 Figure 1. Regression fit for spruce model with aetual year of death taken from the Aleza Lake Research Forest permanent sample plot data and x-axis and predicted year of death from the TSDM. 56 2000 -| s 1990 E S 1980 - 0) ~oo s 1970 1960 - Q 0 CO 1950 0 1 1940 O I 1930 - 0 ijy 1920 - -------1920 o cP -y - 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 A ctual Y ear of D eath (S a m p le Plot R eco rd s) • O standing Fir Standing Fir Regression = 0.768 Down Fir Down Fir Regression R^ = 0.847 Figure 2. Regression fit for fir model with actual year of death taken from the Aleza Lake Research Forest permanent sample plot data and x-axis and predicted year of death from the TSDM. 57 2000 1990 1980 - 1970 I I 1960 1950 g 1940 8 m E p 1920 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Tree Ring Estimate (Year of Death) Figure 3. Plotted values of dates of tree mortality from the Times Since Death Model (yaxis) and from tree ring cores whose radial growth increased by 50% following tree mortality (x-axis). Linear regression line fitted to the data pairs indicates the two estimates are very close R^= 0.924. 58 CHAPTER 3. A METHODLOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING YEAR OF DEATH IN SUBBOREAL FORESTS USING TREE RING GROWTH RATES 3.0 ABSTRACT Tree ring growth rate criteria have been widely used to quantify disturbance regimes in forests of complex age structure but the methodology requires local calibration of growth rate parameters. This chapter summarizes the development of tree ring growth rate criteria for understory trees used to assign a canopy ascension date to canopy trees. Canopy ascension dates correspond to overhead mortality and this information can be used to quantify disturbance regimes. The criteria were developed in a wet, cool SubBoreal Spruce forest near Prince George, British Columbia. Two sampling methods were used. First in eight 10-meter radius plots, all dead and live trees (>30 cm tall) were stemmapped. Date o f death in dead trees (n = 101) was estimated using a time since death model (Chapter 2). Increment cores or basal sections were then taken from all living trees in the plot and tree attributes were collected (species, diameter, crown class, live crown ratio). Year of death from the time since death model was then compared to year o f death estimated from release patterns in nearby understory trees. When there was agreement between the two estimates of year of death (+/-10 yrs), the understory tree was classified as a released tree. Trees not showing release were eliminated. From the remaining trees it was determined that only trees > 20 cm dbh when they died caused release in understory trees. Furthermore, understory trees were typically <5 meters from the dead tree, they were at least 5cm dbh < than the dead tree and they were of vigorous growth. Next, the relationships described above were used as criteria for selecting an independent population of understory trees (n = 428) subtending dead trees located at random. From these data growth rate criteria were developed to determine canopy ascension dates. The 59 criteria are as follows: 1) Gap origin growth rates is 1.50mm/yr, 1.72mm/yr and 1.07mm/yr for Picea glauca X engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa, and Betula papyrifera. 2) Release criteria (for all species) is a 65% increase in growth sustained for 15 yrs following a 15 yr period of slow growth. 3) Other criteria used to assign canopy ascension dates were constant declining, parabolic or ambiguous tree ring patterns, which indicated gap origin trees that were growing slower than the gap-origin growth rate criterion. Criteria were also developed to assign release from suppression from the interpretation of irregular growth patterns. 60 3.1 INTRODUCTION Analyses of tree ring growth patterns have been used to reconstruct disturbance regimes in forests o f complex age structure (Frelich and Lorimer 1989). The method relies on the development of annual ring growth criteria that indicates the date a tree is released from suppression, or the date a seedling establishes in a gap, when a near-by canopy tree dies (i.e. canopy ascension dates). The location and timing of canopy ascension dates in a stand have to be analyzed to provide information on the spatial and temporal patterns of canopy level disturbance for eastern hardwood forests, eastern boreal forests, and western sub-alpine forests (Lorimer and Frelich 1989; Frelich and Lorimer 1991; Frelich and Graumlich 1994; Abrams et al. 1995; Frelich and Reich 1995; Cherubini 1996). However, the methodology has not been developed for sub-boreal systems in western North America, which are inherently challenging for this methodology due to the tall, narrow tree crowns which may not cause as substantial increases in understory light regimes after death as broad crowned hardwood forests. Furthermore, growth rate criteria need to be developed locally in order to avoid over or under estimating disturbance intensity. For example, climatic effects, ontogenetic patterns, and stand development factors (such as canopy thinning) could all potentially cause release in a tree and be misinterpreted as a canopy disturbance. Thus specific criteria need to be developed that take into account these effects as well as the inherent variation in tree response due to species, type of disturbance and stand (species composition, age, height, canopy structure), and site factors (nutrient availability, moisture status, soil temperature). 61 The development of tree ring growth rate criteria in this study is assisted by multiple linear regression models that estimate the date of death for Picea glauca x engelmannii (Parry ex Engelm.) (hybrid spruce, hereafter referred to as spruce) and Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt, (sub-alpine fir, hereafter referred to as fir) (Chapter 2). These models improved the process of developing tree ring growth rate criteria by providing an independent estimate of time since death for canopy trees. Therefore the objectives of this study are to determine the reliability of using tree ring release information to date tree mortality in SBS forests and develop criteria for estimating canopy ascension date using growth rate patterns contained within tree ring cores. 62 3.2 METHODS 3.21 Study Area and Site Selection The research was conducted in two old-growth forests at the Aleza Lake Research Forest which is located at 54° 07’ N, 122° 04’ W, about 60 kilometers east of Prince George, British Columbia, Canada. Stand 1 is located on the north side of the Bear Road approximately 1 km east of the Bear Road and Aleza Road junction. Stand Two is located on the west side of the Aleza Road approximately 2.5kms south of the Bear Road and Aleza Road Junction. The elevation of the research forest is between 600 and 750 meters above sea level on the Nechako Plain of the Fraser River Basin in the Interior Plateau physiographic region (Holland 1976). The Aleza Lake Research Forest is located in wet, cool, sub-boreal spruce-fir forest. The region is classified as the Sub-Boreal Spruce, wetcool 1 (SBSwkl) biogeoclimatic zone according to a biogeoclimatic classification system in common usage in British Columbia (See Meidinger and Pojar (1991) for details). The SBS wkl climate is characterized by cold, snowy winters and moist, cool summers. The climate is slightly less continental than typical for the SBS due to the orographic influence of the Northern Rocky Mountains to the east, resulting in higher precipitation than usual for the rest of the zone (Meidinger and Pojar 1991). The old-growth forests are mixtures of Picea glauca x engelmannii (spruce) and Abies lasiocarpa (fir) with scattered Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca (Douglas-fir), Pinus conforta var. latifolia (lodgepole pine) and Betula papyrifera (birch). Old-growth forests at the Aleza Lake Research Forest are uneven aged (Decie 1957). Sampling was conducted in three old-growth stands located on medium to good sites with minimal variation in soils and topography. 63 3.22 Sampling Design and Plot Measurements Two sampling approaches were used in this study. First (Comprehensive Analysis), in eight 10 meter radius plots all dead trees (n = 1 0 1 ) ^ 0 em dbh were located and decay characteristics used as predictor variables in the TSD model were collected (Chapter 2). Ten cm dbh was used as a minimum diameter since preliminary investigations revealed that trees smaller than this rarely caused release in nearby trees. Decay data were entered into the TSD model to estimate the date of death for each tree. All live trees >1.3 meters tall were cut down at 1.Cm and a basal section was collected or, in larger trees, an increment core was taken (also at 1.0m). Tree ring cores were stored in plastic straws, mounted on 1 inch thick grooved Styrofoam strips. The tree ring samples and the basal samples were dried, sanded and scanned using a flatbed scanner. The scanned images were analyzed using Windendro® (Regent Instruments, Blaine, Quebec) which measures and records annual ring width growth (mm). In the second sampling approach (Selective Analysis), dead trees were located unsystematically (n = 176).Variables required for the TSD model (Chapter 2) were collected from these trees and a minimum of one gap-filling tree was selected for an increment core sample (based on criteria developed in the Comprehensive Analysis, see results). 3.23 Analysis Comprehensive Analysis In order to determine if a release (i.e. sustained increase in growth) event occurred following overstory mortality, ring width data for live trees was visually inspected for growth patterns that suggested release. Trees that did not show release were eliminated 64 {i.e. trees with constant declining growth or extremely flat incremental growth patterns). On the remaining trees, tree ring cores were inspected for growth increases that occurred within +/-10 years of the TSD model estimate for year of death. Release events were eliminated which did not correspond to the date of death estimated from the TSD model (+/- 10 years) or were unlikely due to unrealistic distances from gap-maker to gap-filler, or due to the size relationship of the gap-maker to gap-filler. On the rest of the trees, a 15year mean growth rate before and after the release date was calculated. Percent release was then calculated for each event as: 15 year growth after release /15 year growth before release) x 100. The 15-year average was used to eliminate the influence of short­ term variations in growth rate on the chronology. Trees releasing after 1982 could not be averaged for a full 15 years. Releases after 1982 were only included if they were sustained until the year of sampling (1998). Trees releasing after 1990 were not included in the analysis because assumptions could not be made that the release would be sustained for 15 years. Understory trees whose ‘released’ growth rates were 25% > than pre-release growth rates and within +!- 10 yrs of the TSD model estimates were used to examine several relationships. Dead-tree - understory-tree size relationships were used to determine the relative size difference necessary to cause a release and the minimum size required to cause release in a subordinate tree of any size. The diameters of dead trees and estimated diameter of the live trees (estimated as: present diameter - (2 x total ring width increment since release)) at the time of death provide evidence for how large a dead tree must be before it causes a growth increase in a given size of understory tree. Dead-tree - understory distance relationships were also quantified. The distribution of 65 distance data provided an estimate for the range in influence mortality has on the understory trees as measured from the base of the dead tree to the base of the released tree. Selective Analysis Interpretation of Growth Patterns In the Selective Analysis, detailed annual growth criteria (early growth rate criteria, percent release criteria, and overall growth criteria) were developed to be used in future studies (Chapter 4 and 5). The objectives here were to; 1) Determine a gap-origin growth rate threshold (i.e. high rates of early growth indicate a tree was growing in a gap created by canopy mortality when it reached the coring height). 2) Determine a release threshold where slow growth followed by sustained high growth indicates a tree was initially suppressed by overstory competition then released following a gap-making event (Figure la). 3) Determine criteria to deal with trees that do not show either 1) or 2) but may have some pattern that may indicate a tree originated in a gap or was released, even though it did not meet the early growth rate or release criteria (Figure Ib-e). This approach generally followed the methods of Lorimer et al. (1988) and Lorimer and Frelich (1989) with modifications for this study’s forests where necessary. Early Growth Rate Criteria Trees germinating in gaps should have faster annual radial growth rates than understory tree growth rates (Oliver and Larson 1996). Therefore, trees meeting a minimum growth rate threshold can then be used to judge the decade of an overhead mortality based on their total age at the coring height. Over 400 gap-filling trees were 66 classified as either gap-origin or initially suppressed in the following manner. Open grown trees have sigmoidal increases in cumulative diameter growth that results in an incremental annual growth pattern that peaks early on, usually around 20-30 years, followed by a generally declining pattern. Thus, if a tree is in the canopy and the past growth rate is equal to or greater than current growth, it ean be assumed that the tree originated in a gap (Lorimer et al. 1988). A 10-year average growth rate was then determined for eaeh tree for the first 10 years of growth from the pith. In total, 319 fir, 104 spruce, and five birch were sampled. The growth rate data were then used to set the early growth rate criteria using Equation 1 (below) obtained from Lorimer et al. (1988). The formula was used in an iterative proeess until P^i = 95% was obtained. This assures that 95% of the time, the growth rate threshold selected, correctly distinguishes true gap-origin trees from fastgrowing suppressed trees. However, this strict (high) criteria will also prevent slow growing gap-origin trees from passing the criteria. Lorimer et al. (1988) suggest that it is preferable to maintain this high confidenee in gap origin because other growth rate pattern criteria (see below) can be developed to “recover” gap-origin trees that fail to meet the threshold. Probability of suppression (Lorimer et al. 1988): Equal,on I Px, = j Where: Pxi= probability of suppression for a sapling of size elass i with growth rate x, Sxi = proportion of suppressed (understory) trees of size elass i exeeeding growth rate x, Gxi ==proportion of gap saplings in size class i exceeding growth rate x, Qsi = proportion of all saplings of size class i that are suppressed 67 Qgi = proportion of all saplings of size class i that are growing in gaps, such that Qsi+Qgi 1.0 = Percent Release Criteria Abrupt and sustained increases in incremental diameter growth (Figure la) may indicate that a tree was released from suppression by canopy mortality. In order to determine the growth response of understory trees to overhead tree mortality and evaluate these responses for release criteria, mortality dates of trees were estimated using a time since death model (Chapter 2). These dates of mortality were then compared to dates of release preserved in increment cores from the gap-filling trees. If the dates of release coincided within 10 years of the time since death model estimate, the tree was classified as a gap-filler and a percent release value was calculated from radial increment ((15-yr growth after release /15-year growth rate before release)x 100). The release criteria were then developed as follows. To avoid classifying crown thinning responses and adjacent mortality as overhead canopy mortality a minimum release duration was implemented. Since trees already in the canopy fill in gaps through lateral expansion of the crown quickly, any growth increase in canopy trees will be short lived (Lorimer and Frelich 1991). Furthermore, since the gap will be quickly colonized, adjacent understory trees will also only receive short-term benefits. Therefore a 15-year sustained release criteria was selected. To avoid classifying an increase in growth due to a period of slow growth caused by drought from being classified as a release, a minimum period o f slow-growth before release was selected. Lorimer and Frelich (1989) found that the most severe drought of the 20'*’ century only moderately affected diameter growth on the most sensitive sites in 68 eastern mixed forests. Decreases in growth due to drought occurred over 2-12 years and averaged 5.0 years. Therefore, a “15 year slow growth before release criteria” was proposed. The minimum slow growth criterion was used in this study to screen climatic variations, which are normally short lived from interpretation as release. To avoid classifying crown thinning {i.e. trees in the canopy responding to the death of other trees in the canopy) and adjacent mortality as overhead mortality, two approaches were taken. First, threshold diameter limits, beyond which, trees would be too large to be candidates for understory release were established for each species. In this study < 5% of spruce were overtopped at greater than 40 cm dbh, while for fir and birch, < 5% were overtopped at greater than 30 cm dbh. Thus, trees greater than these diameters at the time of release were not counted as canopy ascensions even if they met the percent release criteria because a growth increase is likely due to canopy thinning and not a release from suppression. Secondly a relatively high percent release value was chosen (25%-quantile), since adjacent mortality usually cause weaker growth increases than overhead releases (Lorimer and Frelich 1989). 69 3.3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 3.31 Comprehensive Analysis Of lOI dead trees in the pilot study 51 release events occurred within 10 years of the time since death model estimate. However, 29 dead trees were less than 20 cm DBH when they died, and only two of these 29 trees had an associated release event. The total number of release events associated with mortality of the 72 trees greater than 20 cm was 49 (68%). The rest of the mortalities either did not have any understory trees (n = II) or the understory trees did not respond for reasons that could not be determined (n - 12). Since dead trees smaller than 20 cm DBH did not cause consistent or substantial increases in the growth of nearby understory trees, time since death model estimates of death provide the only reliable estimate available for smaller trees. Therefore when sampling potential gap-fillers for dead trees in the Selective Analysis, and in further studies only dead trees greater than 20 cm DBH should be expected to cause release in understory trees. The mean percent release for the 49 release events was 80% with 95% of the releases falling between 66% and 94%. The maximum release was 246% and the minimum was 13%. Only 6% of release events were less than 25%. The time since death model increased the certainty that each release event was associated with tree mortality therefore, a fairly liberal threshold of 50% for release was established as the release criterion for the Comprehensive Analysis. Trees showing <50% release were eliminated and were not analyzed in the remainder of the relationships. The mean distance from gap-maker to gap-filler was 2.84 meters, the minimum was 0.51 meters and the maximum was 6.67 meters. Ninety-five percent of the release 70 events occurred between 0.54 and 6.4 meters from the dead tree. There were no strong relationships, using linear or other functions between percent release (response) and distance from dead tree (p>0.05 in all cases). There was a weak trend for trees close to the dead tree (<1 meter) and far away (>5 meters) to exhibit less release than trees in the 2 - 4 meter range. There was also no difference in percent release when I. tomentosus caused mortality (gradual mortality) was compared to other - typically more punctuated gap-making events (p = 0.20). There was no clear relationship between the percent release and the dead tree live tree diameter ratio, or the diameter of the dead tree, although in all cases the dead tree was at least 5 cm (dbh) larger than the understory tree. This suggests that understory trees which are at least 5 cm dbh smaller than the dead tree and within 5 meters of its base, have the potential to release. Thus, distance appears to be more important than dead tree: live tree size relationships as a sampling guideline. Therefore, sampling criteria for gap-filling trees replacing dead canopy trees was based on the following guidelines: less than 5 meters from the dead canopy tree, at least 5 cm less than the diameter of the dead tree at time of release and if possible in the 5-15 cm DBH range, in intermediate or suppressed canopy positions. 3.32 Selective Analysis Gap-Origin Criteria For birch the minimum gap-origin growth rate was 1.072mm/yr (n = 3) and the maximum suppressed growth rate was 0.552 mm/yr (n = 2) (Figure 2). Since the growth rate distributions were non-overlapping, the selection of the minimum growth rate 71 indicating gap-origin status for birch was 1.072 mm/yr. Although this value is based on a very small sample, birch is typically associated with gaps in sub-boreal spruce-fir forests since it is a relatively shade intolerant species (Archibold 1980; Krajina et al. 1982) thus the gap-origin growth rate criteria can be relatively liberal. For fir, the distribution of ring widths overlapped considerably between suppressed and gap-origin trees (Figure 2) (n = 319). Since there were two other growth criteria (Figure 3) used to independently estimate disturbance date, an early growth rate threshold was selected which yielded a high confidence (95%) of gap-origin or alternatively, a low probability of mistakenly identifying a fast-growing suppressed sapling as a gap origin tree. Using a formula to determine gap-origin thresholds with 95% confidence level given in Lorimer et al. (1988), the threshold for fir was set at 1.72 mm/yr. The same guidelines were followed for spruce and the threshold was set at 1.5 mm/yr (n = 104). Percent Release Criteria Fifty percent o f the observations for percent release fell between 65% and 129% with the median being 92% and there was no significant difference in percent release between species (p = 0.194). The distribution of percent release was not normal, but a median test also did not detect significant differences in percent release between species (Chi Square = 1.34,p=0.50). Therefore, the same release criteria were used for all species. The percent release criterion was based on supporting evidence from other studies and on the percent release data distribution in the present study. In most studies it was been shown that the typical release from suppression for Picea spp. and Abies spp. is less than 72 100%. For example, seventy-one year old Picea glauca in eastern Canada released about 67% (in diameter growth ) following thinning (Fraser 1962). In a 16-year-old plantation Picea glauca diameter release was 37% following herbicide release (Balvinder et al. 2001). Sutton (1995) reported a 50-100% increase in diameter growth in a 30 year old Picea glauca stand following a weeding treatment and Biring et al. (1999) reported an 85% increase in growth in Picea glauca anà Abies balsamifera over twelve years following herbicide treatments. Based on the evidence provided from these studies, a 65% increase in growth (which corresponds to the 25%-quantile in the percent release data distribution) was chosen. In comparison, Veblen (1986) used 150% as a release criterion for Picea glauca x engelmannii and Abies lasiocarpa, but only imposed a fiveyear sustainability requirement. In hemlock hardwood forests Lorimer and Frelich (1989), and Frelich and Graumlich (1994) used a minimum 50% growth increase for Acer saccharum and Betula allagheniensis sustained for a minimum of 10 years. Thus the criteria selected here is reasonable. The trees that do not pass the release threshold or the early growth rate threshold are recovered with overall growth rate interpretations (below) (Figure 3). Overall Growth Rate Pattern Criteria The relatively high thresholds for gap-origin and percent release were established in order to have high confidence in attributing a growth response to mortality and this inevitably results in some trees not passing the criteria. For these trees, lifetime incremental patterns were assigned to several groups and assumptions about these group patterns were used to assign the tree a date of canopy ascension (Figures lb,c,d,e). The 73 first group was overall growth patterns that started out relatively high and remained consistent or had an increasing growth pattern followed by a flat or declining pattern (Figure lb) (Frelich and Graumlich 1994). These patterns of growth are characteristic of dominant trees in even-aged stands (Assman 1970; Oliver and Larson 1996; Frelich and Graumlich 1994) and accordingly it is reasonable to assume that a similar pattern would result in gap origin trees (Lorimer and Frelich 1989). Therefore, the date of canopy ascension for these trees is equal to the year that the tree reached the coring height of 1.0m. Another type of lifetime growth pattern used is a parabolic shape where tree growth increases gradually for a few decades, reaches a peak then gradually declines (Figure Ic). These patterns were considered indicative of gap-origin trees, growing at less than the gap-origin threshold if the peak growth rate was achieved within 25 years of the first ring in the chronology (Lorimer and Frelich 1989). Ambiguous patterns are those that have a period of increasing growth lasting > 25 years but do not pass the percent release criteria (Figure Id). An ambiguous zone was established beginning with the first ring of the increasing period to where 80% of the maximum growth rate was achieved (Lorimer and Frelich 1989). The decade of canopy ascension was determined to be the decade where the median growth rate was achieved during the ambiguous period. This interpretation is based on the assumption that ascension to the canopy in these trees would not coincide with a growth increase of less than 25% (Frelich and Lorimer 1989). Trees not meeting this criteria were treated as irregular patterns and the interpretations are described below. 74 Trees that have alternating high and low growth cycles or other random patterns, but do not meet the growth criteria described so far are considered to have irregular growth patterns (Figure le). Trees that have a declining arrangement of successive peaks with the first peak having the largest growth rate achieved within the first 25 years of growth are interpreted as gap-origin. Trees that have a peak growth later than 25 years tfom the earliest ring are treated as ambiguous patterns as described earlier (Lorimer and Frelich 1989). 75 3.4 CONCLUSIONS Tree ring growth rate criteria can be used to indicate the year of canopy ascension for trees in western sub-boreal forests. This method had been previously untested in these forests. The method developed here shows that the technique can be used in humid forests in northerly latitudes and in forests dominated by trees with tall narrow crowns. This study provides a guide for tree ring growth rate criteria in studies in similar environments and provides criteria locally developed and tested that can be applied to disturbance regime investigations. 76 3.5 LITERATURE CITED Abrams, M.D., Orwid, D.A. and Demeo, T.E. 1995. Dendroecological analysis of successional dynamics for a presettlement origin white-pine-mixed-oak forest in the southern Appalachians, USA. Jour. Ecol. 83:123-133. Archibold, W.O. 1980. Seed input into a postfire forest site in northern Saskatchewan. Can. J. For. Res. 10: 129-134. Assman. 1970. The principles of forest yield study. Permagon Press. Oxford England. Balvinder, S.B., Yearsley, H.K. and Hays-Byl, W.J. 2001. Ten-year responses of White spruce and associate vegetation after Glyphosate treatment at Tsilcoh River. British Columbia Ministry of Forests. Victoria, British Columbia. Biring, B.S., Hays-Byl, W.J. and Hoyles, H.E. 1999. Twelve-year conifer and vegetation responses to discing and glyphosate treatments on a BWBSmw backlog site. British Columbia Ministry of Forests, Research Branch. Victoria, British Columbia. Working Paper 43. Cherubini, P., Piussi, P. and Schweingrubber, F.H. 1996. Spatiotemporal growth dynamics and disturbances in a sub-alpine spruce forest in the Alps: a dendroecological reconstruction. Can. J. For. Res. 26:991-1001. Decie, T. 1957. Working plan for the forest experiment station Aleza Lake: for the period April U*, 1957 to March 3U‘, 1967. British Columbia Forest Service. Prince George, BC. Fraser, D. A. 1962. Apical and radial growth of white spruce {Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) at Chalk River, Ontario, Canada. Canadian Journal of Botany. 40:659-668 Frelich, L. E. and Graumlich, L.J. 1994. Age-class distribution and spatial patterns in an old-growth hemlock hardwood forest. Can. J. For. Res. 24:1939-1947. Frelich, L.E. and Lorimer, C.G. 1991. Natural disturbance regimes in hemlockhardwood forests of the Upper Great Lakes Region. Ecological Monographs 61 : 145-164. Frelich, L.E. and Reich, P.B. 1995. Spatial patterns and succession in a Minnesota southern-boreal forest. Ecological Monographs. 65:325-346. Holland, S.S. 1976. Landforms of British Columbia: a physiographic outline. Bulletin 48, British Columbia Department of Mines and Petroleum Resources. Victoria, British Columbia. 77 Krajina, V.J., Klinka, K. and Worrall, J. 1982. Distribution and ecological characteristics of trees and shrubs of British Columbia. University of British Columbia Faculty of Forestry, Vancouver, British Columbia. Lorimer, C.G. and Frelich, L.E. 1989. A methodology for estimating canopy disturbance frequency and intensity in dense temperate forests. Can. Jour. for. Res. 19:651663 . Lorimer, C.G., Frelich, L.E. and Nordheim, E.V. 1988. Estimating gap origin probabilities for canopy trees. Ecology 69(3):778-785. Meidinger, D. and Pojar, J. 1991. Ecosystems of British Columbia. Research Branch, Ministry of Forests. Crown Publications Inc. 330 pp. Oliver, C D. and Larson, C.B. 1996. Forest Stand Dynamics. John Wiley and Sons. Toronto. 527 pp. Sutton, R.F. 1995. White spruce establishment: initial fertilization, weed control, and irrigation evaluated after three decades. New Forests 9:123-133 Veblen, T.T. 1986. Treefalls and the coexistence of conifers in sub-alpine forests of the central Rockies. Ecology 67(3):644-649. 78 A b r u pt r e l e a s e T -H -H 4- + il I I! I I I! I! C o n s t a n t c H 444 H -H -H D e c l i n i n g P a r a b o i i c 5 4 -- 3 - - - =F=4- ■4 1 1 1 1- 4 A m 1- • i 1 4 2 1 0 b i g u o u s i r r e g u l a r Figure 1. Demonstration of various incremental growth patterns used to assess date of canopy ascension. Y-Axis = tree growth in mm/yr. X-axis = year the growth rate was recorded. ►Indicates the year o f canopy ascension. ► Indicates the year o f the ambiguous zone. 79 4 3 0 x: I CD 2 >s 1 0 0 Su pressed Gap Suppressed Gap Suppressed Gap Betula Betula Alyes Abies Picea Picea Figure 2. Box-plots showing the range (mean, standard deviation, minimum, maximum, and quartiles) in initial 10-year average growth rate for: gap-origin and suppressed Betula papyrifera (n = 3,2), Abies lasiocarpa (n = 104,215), and Picea glauca x engelmannii (n = 56,48). 80 1.) H igh Early Growth Rate A nalysis: Indication: Tree O riginated in a Gap Criteria: Abies lasiocarpa = 1.72m m /yr Picea glauca x engelmannii = 1.5m m /yr Betula papyrifera = 1.072m m /yr 2 .) Rapid, Sustained Increases in Radial G row th R ates (R elea se) A n a ly sis Indication: Tree w as suppressed for a period then, due to overhead m ortality w as released. Criteria: a) 160% R elease b) Sustained for 2 0 years c) < 4 0 em dbh for A bies lasiocarpa and < 3 0 em for Picea glauca X engelmannii 3.) O verall Growth Pattern A n alysis Indieation: 1) Tree O riginated in a Gap Criteria: a) C onsistently high or increasing grow th fo llo w e d b y a decline. b) Parabolic grow th pattern w ith peak grow th oecurring w ithin first 25-years. c) D eclin in g peaks w ith first peak indicating h igh est grow th w ithin first 2 5 years. II) Tree w as released from suppression Criteria: a) Inereasing grow th lasting > 2 5 -y ea rs but peak grow th ach ieved after 25 years. b) Peak grow th later than first 2 5 -years. Figure 3. Decision set for determining year of canopy ascension. Each tree was assessed using each of the criteria. More than one year of canopy ascension per tree is possible. 81 CHAPTER 4. SPATIOTEMPORAL PATTERNS OF SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES IN SUB-BOREAL SPRUCE FORESTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR PARTIAL CUT HARVESTING AND INONOTUS TOMENTOSUS ROOT DISEASE 4.0 ABSTRACT In a wet-cool sub-boreal forest east of Prince George, British Columbia, Canada, fine-scale, 70-year disturbance chronologies were compared for four forest types: oldgrowth and partially cut forests with and without Inonotus tomentosus Fr. (Teng) infection and mortality. In both old-growth and partially cut forests 46, 10 meter radius plots (92 total) were centered on dead or cut formerly dominant or codominant Picea glauca X engelmannii trees. Twenty-three plots for both old-growth and partial cut forests were centered on dead trees that showed evidence of past Inonotus tomentosus infection and 23 were centered on uninfected dead trees. Total P. glauca x engelmannii mortality was approximately 50% lower in the partial cut category since the decade of harvest (1950-1960), regardless of infection status. In all four forest types decadal mortality increased from the 1930’s to the 1970’s and then decreased since the 1980’s. The functional gap size, averaged 16.76 m^ and was independent of dead tree diameter, species, crown class or agent of mortality. Summed gap-size measures for all trees dying in a decade indicated that between 6.9 and 8.1% of stand area was made available to understory trees per decade but was also highly variable among decades. Mean deeadal mortality was similar to estimates for similar forest ecosystems influenced by small-scale disturbances. Due to high mortality rates of large individuals and low recruitment rates to the canopy for P. glauca x engelmannii, the population structure of the old-growth forests 82 appears to be shifting from a P. glauca x engelmannii dominated canopy to an A. lasiocarpa dominated canopy, but Inonotus tomentosus does not appear to be the cause. Rather, higher^, lasiocarpa densities in the understory and more frequent A. lasiocarpa recruitment to the canopy combined with high rates o f f . glauca x engelmannii mortality explain this shift. In partial cut plots, higher relative P. glauca x engelmannii recruitment and lower P. glauca x engelmannii mortality indicate that P. glauca x engelmannii populations may rise relative to its’ present density. 83 4.1 INTRODUCTION The Sub-Boreal Spruce (SBS) forest region of central interior British Columbia is a diverse forest region whose climax forests are mainly mixtures o f Picea glauca x engelmannii (Parry ex Engelm.) (hybrid spruce, hereafter referred to as spruce) m d Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt, (sub-alpine fir, hereafter referred to as fir) (Meidinger and Pojar 1991). Mean fire return interval estimates in dry and wet SBS forests range from 150-250 years, and 227-6250 years, respectively (Parminter 1992; Hawkes et al. 1997). Long fire return intervals in wet areas of the SBS enable small-scale (i.e. gap) disturbances to become a predominant stand dynamics mechanism in these forests. Furthermore, smallscale disturbances may become increasingly important since fire suppression has excluded or reduced fire’s influence on the ecosystem (Clark 1994; Frelich and Reich 1995; Andison 1996; Kneeshaw and Bergeron 1998). Quantification of the patterns of small-scale disturbances and the stand dynamics they cause is important in both managed and unmanaged landscapes. The increasing scarcity of old-growth forests has inspired the preservation of their remnants (Welles et al. 1998) yet the long-range implications of gap dynamics on stand structure and composition are unknown. Secondly, in managed SBS landscapes, landscape ecology principles that suggest biodiversity can be maintained by mimicking natural disturbance patterns with harvesting patterns (DeLong and Tanner 1996). If this goal is to be met, partial cut harvesting systems that approximate small-scale natural disturbance patterns need to be designed for forests where small-scale disturbances are predominant. Ecologists are just beginning to realize that small-scale disturbance regimes are important 84 ecological processes in wet SBS forests and quantitative information of these regimes and how forests respond to them are lacking. Agents of gap formation in SBS forests include root and stem rot fungi, phloem feeding insects (e.g. Dendroctonus rufipennis), tree life spans, and abiotic factors such as windthrow and snow loading (Kneeshaw and Burton 1997; Kneeshaw and Bergeron 1998; Lewis and Lindgren 1999). Among these is the root rot pathogen Inonotus tomentosus (Fr.) Teng, which is common in most Picea spp. dominated forests world­ wide (Whitney 1980; Merler et al. 1988; Lewis and Hansen 1991a; Lewis et al. 1992; Lewis 1997). In the SBS forests of central interior British Columbia, /. tomentosus primarily attacks spruce (Hunt and Unger 1994) and infected trees are subject to chronic declines in vigor. Eventually root dysfunction and structural weakening lead to standing mortality or windthrow of individual or small groups of trees (Lewis and Hansen 1991b; Lewis 1997). Following tree mortality, root colonization by the fungus increases due to the absence of active defense mechanisms in the sapwood and the fungal mycelium moves outward from the heartwood to the sapwood (Lewis et al. 1992). The mycelium in the dead sapwood enables I. tomentosus to spread through rootto-root contact (Lewis et al. 1992). In this way the disease may spread from tree-to-tree (Lewis et al. 1992) potentially reducing spruce density in disease pockets. Due to the host preference of I. tomentosus and the ability to remain infectious for up to 40 years, gaps in the canopy formed by this pathogen may result in higher rates of spruce mortality and lower spruce populations in the gaps. Thus relative to some other small-scale disturbance agents I. tomentosus could lead to compositional shifts, due both to decreased density of 85 spruce in the overstory surrounding gaps, and a decreased probability that spruce recruits will fill the gaps. It can be hypothesized that compared to the effects of /. tomentosus in old-growth forests, partial-cut silvicultural systems may exacerbate the effects of I. tomentosus on gap dynamics, and forest structure. Partial cutting may increase I. tomentosus virulence and this may increase spruce mortality as inoculum volumes are increased by harvesting relatively healthy infected spruce which, if left uncut, would be able to confine the fungus to the heartwood for a much longer period. This could mean increased contact frequency with new hosts and ultimately, increased mortality rates for spruce in partial cut silviculture applications. This research addresses four specific questions about small-scale disturbance regimes and associated stand dynamics in wet SBS forests. 1. What is the temporal pattern of small-scale disturbance in I. tomentosus infected and uninfected old-growth forests and how do these compare to infected and uninfected partially cut forests? 2. Does the rate of spruce mortality differ between /. tomentosus infected and uninfected old-growth forests and how does partial cutting affect these rates? 3. How has current stand composition been affected by harvesting and/or infeetion status? 4. Is the future stand composition likely to change due to infection and/or harvesting status? 86 4.2 METHODS 4.21 Study Area The research was conducted in two old-growth and two partially cut forests at the Aleza Lake Research Forest, located at 54° 07’ N, 122° 04’ W, about 60 kilometers east of Prince George, British Columbia, Canada. It lies between 600 and 750 meters above sea level on the Nechako Plain of the Fraser River Basin in the Interior Plateau physiographic region (Holland 1976). For the old growth forests, one stand was sampled on the north side of the Bear Road approximately 1 km east of the Bear Road and Aleza Road junction. A second stand was sampled on the west side of the Aleza Road approximately 2.5kms south of the Bear Road and Aleza Road Junction. For the partial cut forests one stand was sampled on the west side of the Aleza Road near the junction of the Aleza Road and the Upper Fraser Road. A second stand was sampled on the east side of the Aleza Road adjacent to the junction of the Aleza Road and the West Branch Road. The ALRF is located in the sub-boreal spruce, wet-cool 1 (SBSwkl) biogeoclimatic zone (See Meidinger and Pojar (1991) for details). The SBSwkl climate is characterized by cold, snowy winters and moist, cool summers. The climate is slightly wetter and more moderate than central SBS sub-zones due to the orographic influence of the Northern Rocky Mountains to the east, resulting in higher precipitation than usual for the rest of the zone (Meidinger and Pojar 1991). The old-growth forests are mixtures of spruce and fir with scattered Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca (Douglas-fir), Finns contorta var. latifolia (lodgepole pine) and Betula papyrifera (paper birch). Old-growth forests at the Aleza Lake Research Forest are thought to be uneven aged (Decie 1957). The dominant spruce, perhaps members of the initial fire origin cohort, are possibly 300 years old or 87 more. The oldest fir are about 200 - 250 years and are probably members of a post-fire establishment cohort. The scattered Douglas-fir component can be as many as 500 years old (Decie 1957) and may be survivors of the last fire. A well-developed understory layer is mainly comprised of fir (80%) and spruce (20%). Spot fires, spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis), various diseases including I. tomentosus and timber harvesting in some stands have been the main disturbance agents at the Aleza Lake Research Forest since the last wildfire (Decie 1957). The partial cut forests at the Aleza Lake Research Forest have the same site characteristics as those described for old-growth forests. Partial cutting was designed to improve spruce regeneration success and overall stand structure and quality through selective harvests conducted during the winters of 1952-1956 (TSX 42765, 774118). These systems implemented forest management concepts typical of uneven aged selection systems (e.g. management of species composition, stand structure, and residual growing-stock) (Jull and Famden unpublished data). The following guidelines were followed by trained crews prior to harvesting: defective trees were identified for felling; larger trees were removed where possible; vigorous trees were left; uniform spacing of residual spruce was attempted with removal of fir where possible; and sufficient volume was removed to insure an economic operation (DeGrace et al. 1952). The residual basal area was approximately 50% of initial basal area. 4.22 Site Selection Forest cover and contour maps were initially used to locate 30 candidate stands (15 old-growth and 15 partial cut) that were relatively uniform in composition on 88 medium to good sites with minimal variation in soils and topography. The old-growth stands were undisturbed by human activities and the partial eut sites were selectively logged between 1952 and 1954. Each of the 30 candidate stands were ground checked for appropriate characteristics and a number were eliminated because they didn’t meet the initial criteria. Each stand was also checked for the presence of I. tomentosus using standard field techniques (Finck et al. 1989). From the original 30 stands, four were selected (two old-growth and two partial cut) that were most similar amongst themselves, and best met the criteria above. The stands selected also had low to moderate (5-10%) incidence of I. tomentosus infection. 4.23 Sampling Design and Measurements Plots were established in the four selected stands systematically with a 5 0 x 5 0 meter spaced grid. Four forest types were sampled. Old-growth without tomentosus (OGNT), and partial cut without tomentosus (PCNT) plots were free of any evidence of I. tomentosus mortality or infection in living or dead trees. OGNT and old-growth with I. tomentosus (OGT) plots were centered on the nearest dead tree (dead for approximately 40 years) that was a canopy dominant or codominant tree at the time of its death. This was done to provide similar mortality rate estimates between the old-growth plots and the partial cut plots which were logged about 40 years before sampling. PCNT plots were centered on the nearest cut stump to the grid point with no evidence of I. tomentosus infection or mortality with in the plot boundary. OGT plots were centered on a canopy tree that died approximately 40 years ago and had I. tomentosus. PCT plots were established on a cut stump that had evidence of past infection by I. tomentosus in the roots or the stump surface. In the OGT and PCT forest types all living trees were 89 inspected for I. tomentosus infection and this information was used to determine the incidence of infection in these forest types. For each forest type, 23, 10 meter radius (0.314 ha), plots were established. To quantify the disturbance regime, the location of all dead trees in the plot (> 10 cm dbh), the tree decomposition characteristics required as input for the time since death model (TSD model) (Chapter 2) and, if possible, the cause of death were collected. For most disturbance agents, post-hoc classification of mortality is difficult beyond a few years. However, /. tomentosus causes diagnostic pitting in large roots and stem bases that can be identified with confidence for at least 40 years after mortality occurs (Lewis and Hansen 1991a). For several trees it was impossible to determine either the species or the cause of death. In these cases “unknown” was recorded and time since death was determined using canopy ascension date (Chapter 3). Two potential gap-fillers were selected from among the trees subtending each dead canopy tree and one increment core was taken from each at 1.0 m. These trees were stem-mapped, assessed for crown class, live crown ratio, diameter, and species. Tree ring cores were stored in plastic straws, and later mounted on 1 inch thick grooved Styrofoam strips, dried, sanded and scanned using a flatbed scanner. The scanned images were analyzed using Windendro® (Regent Instruments, Blaine, Quebec) which measures and records annual ring width growth (mm). Canopy ascension criteria and the TSD model were used in combination to estimate a date of death for each dead tree (below). 90 4.24 Data Analysis Disturbance Chronology Disturbance chronologies (mortality by decade) were prepared for each forest type. Chronologies are only presented since 1930, which is the limit of the TSD model capability and is approximately the limit for including smaller trees due to tree decomposition. The disturbance chronologies were developed by averaging year of death estimates from the TSD model (Chapter 2) and canopy ascension dates (Chapter 3), in potential gap-fillers. When there were no adequate gap-filling trees for the dead canopy tree only the TSD model was used. When the species of the dead tree could not be determined or was of a species that could not be modeled by the TSD model, only tree ring cores were used to date the mortality. Disturbance chronologies were divided into 10-year intervals from the beginning to end of each decade (Frelich and Graumlich 1994). For the partial cut plots, all cut stems were included in the disturbance chronology and mortality dates for these coincide with the 1950-1960 decade. Functional Gap Size Functional gap size is an estimate of the growing space (m^) that a canopy tree’s mortality {i.e. gap-maker) makes available to the understory trees most likely to attain canopy status after it dies {i.e. gap-filler). The mean of the distance from gap-maker to gap-filler data was used as a proxy for the radius of a circle to calculate the average area a dead tree makes available to understory trees when it dies. Gap size estimates for each tree dying in a given decade were summed to determine the area made available to understory trees per decade. This data was then transformed to a percentage of stand area converted to gaps per decade (sensu Frelich and Graumlich 1994; Yamamoto 1995). 91 Accumulated mortality (stems/ha and basal area) The total mortality since 1930 for all plots in each forest type was used to compare differences in accumulated mortality and spruce mortality. Plot level accumulated mortality was converted to aecumulated basal area mortality because basal area comparisons may show differences in stand mortality dynamics beyond the population level (i.e. growth effects). The proportion of spruce basal area mortality over total basal area mortality and the proportion of spruce mortality caused by I. tomentosus in infected forests were also determined and compared using the Tukey-Kramer, Honestly Significant Difference test (Toothaker 1993) (a = 0.05). Stand Composition The species tally by diameter class was used to compare compositional differences in regeneration (trees < 10 cm diameter at breast height), and canopy layers (trees > 10 cm diameter at breast height). Density by species were calculated as both a proportion of and as a total stems/ha and basal area (m^/ha). Mean treatment (i.e. OGT, OGNT, PCT, PCNT) values were compared using the Tukey-Kramer HSD test. Transition Probabilities Potential gap-fillers are defined as the two chosen trees subtending each dead canopy tree that showed the best potential of replacing the dead tree in the canopy relative to the total pool of regenerating trees (Lertzman 1992). Criteria for selection included a marked release in annual radial growth, vigorous with a good live crown, subordinate to the dead tree in the canopy at the time of death, and within close proximity to the dead tree (<5m) (Chapter 3). One most likely gap-filler was selected from the two 92 potential gap-fillers based on their ability to assert dominance over potential gap-fillers due to their vigor, growth response and proximity to the dead tree. In cases where no single tree showed clear dominance over other potential gap-fillers, both were taken. The sum of the gap-maker/gap-filler transitions was used to develop transition probabilities for each species in the four forest types. Dead trees without any gap-fillers (e.g. recent mortality or microsite limitations) were not included in the matrix (approximately 9% of all dead trees). Gap-fillers associated with more than one gapmaker were assigned a fractional probability of transition based on the number of gapmakers it was replacing (Lertzman 1992). Gap-makers that could not be identified to species were recorded as ‘other’. Transition probabilities were determined from 19301950, 1950-1970, and 1970-1997 to examine variation in transition probabilities with time and due to harvest operations. Simulation of Future Stand Composition Predicted future stand composition was modeled using the 1970-1997 transition matrix and the average annual rates of mortality for each species for the same period. A constant annual mortality rate, constant transition probability, constant stand density, and the absence of catastrophic or wide-spread canopy level disturbance were assumed for the model. The current species composition for each forest type for trees >10 cm DBH was taken, then the annual mortality from the current density for each species was subtracted. Each annual mortality was then multiplied by the transition probability for each gapfilling species. These results were added to a running total of density for each species to provide estimates o f population dynamics for a period of 200 years. 93 4.3 RESULTS 4.31 Stand Composition Eighty-five % of the I. tomentosus infected forest types had less than 6% infection incidence in living trees. The remaining 15% had between 6% and 15% infection incidence. Average understory density (trees >30 cm tall and <10em dbh) for the four forest types was 3305 stems per hectare (p>0.05) (Table 1). Spruce density was significantly lower in both old-growth forest types than the PCNT forest type and in the OGT forest type than the PCT forest (Tukey-Kramer HSD, p = 0.0006) (Table 1). In the canopy layer (trees >10cm dbh), average stand density was 765, 813, 641 and 760 stems/ha for the OGNT, OGT, PCNT, and PCT forest types, respectively (Table 1). The canopy density for the PCNT forest type was significantly lower than all other forest types (p = 0.011) but there were no other significant differences between any other forest type. This may indicate more intense partial cutting in this forest type relative to the other PCT forest type. Spruce density in the canopy layer was significantly lower in both the OGT, OGNT and PCT forest types relative to the PCNT forest type (p = 0.027) (Table 1), suggesting that spruce density may be increased in partial cut forest types, but only when /. tomentosus is not present. Average basal area was similar for the four forest types (p = 0.825) (Table 1). However, the percent spruce basal area of total basal area was highest in the OGNT forest type compared to the OGT and PCT forest types (p = 0.0132) (Table 1). The PCT forest type also had a significantly lower percent spruce basal area than in the OGT forest type. These results indicate that spruce basal area is higher in forest types not infected by I. 94 tomentosus and is higher in old-growth than partial cut forests. The latter result is likely due to the removal of large diameter-high basal area trees in partial cut stands. 4.32 Disturbance Disturbance Chronology Since 1930, mortality has occurred in all decades in all four forest types (Figure 1). Average decadal mortality by decade since 1930 for the OGT, OGNT, PCT and PCNT forests was 48.07, 44.40, 32.91, 35.25 stems>10cm dbh/ha/decade (not shown). Average decadal spruce mortality in the 1960’s was 30.12, 28.73, 11.22, and 11.42 stems/decade for the OGT, OGNT, PCT and PCNT forests, respectively. Thus spruce mortality was more than halved following the harvest in both uninfected and infected partial cut forests relative to the old-growth forests. In contrast, fir mortality increased since the harvest in the partial cut forest types but not in the old-growth forest types (Figure 1). For the partial cut sites and the old-growth sites, spruce mortality, not including cut trees, was highest in all forests during the 1970’s. Fir mortality was highest during the 1960’s for the old-growth forests and highest during the 1980’s for the partial cut forests. All forest types were characterized by increasing total mortality from 1930 to 1970. In the 1980’s and 1990’s the old-growth forests had declining total mortality rates and the same trend was evident during the 1990’s for the partial cut forests. 4.33 Accumulated Mortality Mean accumulated mortality (less cut trees) was significantly higher in the OGT forest type compared to both partial cut types (p = 0.0068) (Table 1). Mean accumulated spruce mortality was also significantly higher for both old-growth forest types compared 95 to both partial cut forest types (p<0.0001). Average accumulated basal area mortality was similarly significantly higher for both old-growth forest types compared to both partial cut forest types (p<0.0001), as was the proportion of spruce mortality of total basal area mortality (p<0.0001). The proportion of spruce basal area mortality killed by/. tomentosus was 0.312, and 0.150 in the OGT and PCT forest types, respectively (p = 0.025). Total mortality, total spruce mortality, total basal area mortality, and total and proportional spruce basal area mortality were all therefore generally reduced by partial cutting but there is no evidence to suggest that I. tomentosus caused significantly higher spruce mortality in this study. 4.34 Functional Gap Size Most likely gap fillers averaged 2.35 m from dead spruce (N = 380) and 2.29 m from dead fir (N = 490) and species differences were only marginally significant (p =0.052). Since gap fillers respond to the two gap making species similarly, analyses presented hereafter are for species pooled. The maximum distance from a gap-maker to a gap-filler was 5.6 meters and the minimum was 0.05 meters. Ninety-five % of the releases occurred between 0.55m and 4.44m. There was no significant relationship between the distance of gap-maker to gap-filler and the diameter of the gap-maker (p = 0 .068 ). The average gap size was 16.76m^. The 97.5*’’ quantile (r = 4.44m) gap area was 61.90m^ indicating that only 2.5% of the single tree gaps have a functional gap size larger than 62 m^. The product of mortality rate estimates and mean gap size, indicates that the 96 percentage of stand area made available to new recruits per decade is 8.1%, 7.4%, 7% and 6.9% for the OGT, OGNT, PCT, and PCNT forest types, respectively. 4.35 Transition Probabilities In general, transition probabilities indicate that fir gap-fillers outnumber all other gap-filler species by about 2:1 except in cases where the sample size of a particular gap maker is small. In old-growth forest types, spruce recruitment does not appear to be strongly affected by infection status since, in some cases spruce recruitment was greater in the OGT forest types than in the OGNT forest types (Figures 2,3,4). Furthermore there were no temporal changes in transition probability over the last 70 years in either oldgrowth or partial cut forest types. In general partial cut forest types had higher spruce recruitment than old-growth forest types in all cases but the fir to spruce transition in 1970-1997. Furthermore, the spruce recruitment was not predictably higher in the PCNT forest type relative to the PCT forest type. Therefore spruce recruitment was increased by partial cutting but was unaffected by I. tomentosus. No interaction o f partial cutting and 7. tomentosus was found. 4.36 Simulations of Future Stand Compositions Two hundred year stand composition projections indicate that fir density may increase from its current proportion of 65-70% to about 80% while spruce density may decline from 28-30% to about 15% (Table 2). These projections also suggest that birch, Douglas-fir and western hemlock will continue to be maintained in low densities in these forests. 97 Assuming no further harvests in the partial cut forest types in the next 200 years in the PCNT forest type (Table 2), spruce may increase from current relative density of approximately 33% to 38% and fir may decline from 63% to 57%. Other species should also be maintained as minor components. In the PCT treatment spruce density will not rise as it did in the PCNT forest types but will be 7-10% higher than in the old-growth forest types. 98 4.4 DISCUSSION Disturbance Chronology Disturbance chronologies indicate that old-growth, sub-boreal forests are influenced by continuous low intensity disturbances. It also appears that I. tomentosus infected and uninfected forests have similar disturbance dynamics. Therefore, at the low infection levels observed in these stands (typically <6%) (British Columbia Ministry of Forests 1995), I. tomentosus appears to contribute to the general pattern of low intensity disturbance by working in concert with other agents to cause single tree to small group tree mortality. However, it does not increase spruce mortality compared to uninfected forests. Partial cut forests generally have lower rates of disturbance than old-growth forests and spruce mortality has been reduced. The effect of higher disease incidence, and therefore more inoculum, was not tested in this study. However, spruce mortality due to /. tomentosus could increase with moderate to high infection incidence which may explain the apparent species shifts observed in stands with higher infection rates (Lewis and Trammer 2000). Estimates of disturbance intensity (-7-8% of stand area) by deeade in these oldgrowth sprace-fir forests are similar to several other forest types dominated by small disturbances. In an old-growth hemlock-hardwood forest in western upper Michigan, Frelich and Graumlich (1994) reported mean decadal disturbance rates of 5.4%. They noted many small gaps created in each decade contributed to the low disturbance rate, which is indicative of individual to small group tree mortality. Yamamoto (1995) reported that current stand area in gaps for an old-growth sub-alpine coniferous forest in 99 central Japan was 7.3%. Frelich and Lorimer (1991) reported 5.7 to 6.9% mortality in a hemlock-hardwood forest moderated by light intensity disturbances. Disturbance rates were highly variable over time ranging from virtually no disturbance to nearly 15% of stand area. For example, the 1970’s and 1980’s were the decades of peak disturbance for all forest types. During these decades disturbance was approximately 13.5%, 14.2%, 7.8% and 9.7% for the OGT, OGNT, PCT, and PCNT forests respectively. Even these upper estimates of disturbance intensity for the study area do not approach the levels of disturbance reported for medium to heavy intensity disturbances caused by wide-spread canopy level mortality caused by insects or catastrophic windthrow (Frelich and Graumlich 1994; Veblen et al. 1994; Kneeshaw and Bergeron 1998). Therefore the timing and intensity of gap formation at the Aleza Lake Research Forest corresponds to continuous, small-scale gap formation consisting of individual trees or small groups o f trees. Accumulated Mortality Total accumulated mortality, total spruce mortality and the proportion of spruce mortality were all significantly lower in partial cut forest types compared to old-growth forest types. Thus, the partial cut harvest probably captured potential mortality that would have occurred if the stands were not cut and also has subsequently improved resource availability for residual trees and improved survivorship. If spmce mortality was lower in OGT forest types compared to PCT or PCT and PCNT forest types, there may have been evidence for an interaction with partial cutting and I. tomentosus. The results here are opposite, with spruce mortality lower in PCT forest types relative to OGT forest types. 100 and no difference between PCT and PCNT forest types. Therefore it can be concluded that partial cutting in I. tomentosus infected areas does not increase the spread rate of the root disease. Further, the evidence shows that spruce mortality can actually he lowered (-15%) by partial cutting in infected forest types (Table 1). The results of thinning in a Picea glauca plantation affected by I. tomentosus by Whitney (1993) indicated lower mortality of Picea glauca in the thinned plantations relative to unthinned controls. Whitney suggested that thinning increased discontinuity of roots leading to fewer subsequent infections, and to increased vigor in residual trees that would prolong a trees’ life even if infected by I. tomentosus. In a detailed study on changes in inoculum volume following harvest, Lewis (unpublished data) did not find a significant increase in total inoculum volume with age of stump although the root disease did appear to move radially from the heartwood into the sapwood following harvest. Stand Composition Documented understory tree recruitment to the canopy began as early as 1930, but many gap-filling trees indicated releases occurring much earlier than this. The evidence of recruitment in this study supports DeGrace (1952), who using permanent sample plot data, reported that the forests at the Aleza Lake Research Forest were changing from even to uneven aged during the 1940’s and 1950’s. In a similar spruce-fir forest type near Smithers and Houston, British Columbia, Kneeshaw and Burton (1997) reported that older forests also appeared to be successfully maintaining themselves through understory recruitment in the absence of fire. 101 Stand composition analyses indicate that spruce populations in the understory are similar for the two old-growth forest types and for the two partial cut forest types (Table 1). These comparisons suggest that I. tomentosus does not affect understory spruce populations in either old-growth or partial cut stands. In general, partial cutting increased spruce populations by creating an understory environment more suitable for spruce colonization and survivorship. This more suitable environment appears to benefit spruce germination even in I. tomentosus infected forest types. In the canopy layer, it was evident that I. tomentosus had no effect on spruce populations for old-growth stands. However, when spruce basal area was considered it was noted that the OGT forest types had lower spruce basal area than the OGNT forest types. Similarly, spruce densities in OGT and PCT forest types were not significantly different but spruce basal area was higher in OGT forest types compared to PCT forest types (Table 1). Since mortality rates were not substantially different between these forests and populations were similar, the result may be due to decreased growth rates in residual P. glauca x engelmannii. Thus there does not appear to be an impact of applying partial cutting to infected stands on spruce populations but there may be an effect on spruce volumes. Other studies have reported decreased growth rates of Picea spp. due to I. tomentosus infections (e.g. Whitney 1980, Merler 1984, Lewis 1997). Transition Probability and Simulations of Future Stand Composition Based on the assumptions in the model used here, in the old-growth forests, spruce density may decline from its current abundance of about 28-30% to around 10% after 200 years (Table 2). This is due to lower current mortality rates for fir and its high 102 success as a transition species. This projection corresponds with Kneeshaw and Burton (1997) who noted mixed spruce-fir forests may beeome dominated by fir. In these forests as well as the forests of the present study, a period of low spruce regeneration, high spruce mortality and redueed spruce recruitment to the canopy contribute to the eventual dominance of fir. However since spruce is a longer lived species than fir, the long-term decline in spruce populations may not be as significant as modeled here. Furthermore other undefined terms in the model may effect the predictions presented. For example, higher than modeled sub-alpine fir mortality due to abiotic or biotic factors would open the canopy and potentially inerease spruee regeneration and reeruitment to the canopy. However the model does provide a base-line estimate of stand development based on a 70 year average of mortality/recruitment dynamics and is useful as a point-of-eomparison. In the old-growth forest types recent spruce mortality has been higher than fir mortality. Given this result and the high rate of fir recruitment over time (Figures 2,3,4) it is reasonable to assume that fir density has been on the rise over the last 70 years in the old-growth forests and spruce density has been decreasing. These stand dynamics may characterize the current serai stage of these old-growth forests where the fire-origin cohort of spruce has experieneed high mortality rates as they approach the end of their life-span and are replaced by prolific fir regeneration. In the partial cut forests the combination of lower spruce mortality, following the harvest, and generally higher spruce canopy recruitment rates relative to the old-growth forests should mean that current spruce density is markedly higher in the partial cut forests relative to the old-growth forests. This is clearly the case for the regeneration 103 layer (Table 1) but not for the canopy layer where spruce density was similar for both old-growth and partial cut forest types. However, since the stand improvement harvest specifications were to cut large diameter stems, spruce density in the canopy would have been dramatically reduced immediately following the harvest. Even moderate annual diameter growth rates of 2.0 to 3.0 mm/yr (Newbery, unpublished data), in advanced spruce regeneration would take between 20-25 yrs to reach 10 cm dbh if they were 5 cm dbh at the time of harvest. If the current old-growth stand composition is indicative of pre-harvest partial cut stand composition, relative regeneration layer spruce density would only have been around 813% (Table 3). Since current relative regeneration spruce density in the partial cut forests is 18-21% (Table 3) many of the existing spruce in these forests have germinated since the harvest. At the same moderate growth rate mentioned above they would take at least 50 years to reach 10 cm dbh and thus were still not counted in the canopy layer tally conducted in 1997 (about 42 years after harvest). Therefore, there is biological evidence that suggests spruce density in this layer will also rise because of the harvest over the long term as modeled by the simulations. 104 4.5 CONCLUSIONS Overall, the disturbance regime in old-growth forests is one of low intensity single tree to small group tree mortality which does not differ between /. tomentosus infected and uninfected gaps. The application of partial cutting to mixed spruce-fir forests has decreased mortality rates in general and of particular importance, spruce mortality rates have been decreased in partial cut forests regardless of infection status. However growth rates of spruce may be reduced in I. tomentosus infected forests. Transition matrices indicate increasing dominance of fir at the expense of spruce assuming disturbance regimes and transition success remain consistent in the old-growth forests. In partial cut forests, spruce populations will generally increase in density. 105 4.6 LITERATURE CITED Andison, D. 1996. Managing for landscape patterns in the sub-boreal spruce forests of British Columbia. Ph.D. dissertation. Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia. Vancouver, BC. 178 pp. British Columbia Ministry of Forests. 1995. Root Disease Management Guidebook. British Columbia Ministry of Forests and British Columbia Ministry of Environment. Victoria, British Columbia. Clark, D.F. 1994. Post-fire succession in the sub-boreal spruce forests if the Nechako Plateau, central British Columbia. M.Sc. thesis. Department of Biology, University of Victoria. 198 pp. Decie, T. 1957. Working plan for the forest experiment station Aleza Lake: for the period April U*, 1957 to March 3U‘, 1967. British Columbia Forest Service. Prince George, BC. DeGrace, L.A., Robinson, E.W. and Smith, J.H.G. 1952. Marking of spruce in the Fort George Forest District. British Columbia Forest Service, Dept, of Lands and Forests, Victoria, B.C. Research Note No. 20. 13 pp. DeLong, S.C. and Tanner, D. 1996. Managing the pattern of forest harvest: lesson from wildfire. Biodiversity and Conservation 51:191-1205. Finck, K.E., Humphreys, P. and Hawkins, G.V. 1989. Field guide to pests of managed forests in British Columbia. Forestry Canada, Pacific and Yukon Region. Victoria, BC. Frelich, L.E. and Lorimer, C.G. 1991. Natural disturbance regimes in hemlockhardwood forests of the Upper Great Lakes Region. Ecological Monographs 61 : 145-164. Frelich, L. E. and Graumlich, L.J. 1994. Age-class distribution and spatial patterns in an old-growth hemlock hardwood forest. Can. J. For. Res. 24:1939-1947. Frelich, L.E. and Reich, P.B. 1995. Spatial patterns and succession in a Minnesota southern-boreal forest. Ecological Monographs. 65:325-346. Hawkes, B., Vasbinder, W. and DeLong. 1997. Retrospective fire study: fire regimes in the SBSvk & ESSFwk2/wc3 biogeoclimatic units of northeastern British Columbia. McGregor Model Forest Association. Prince George, BC. 34 pp. Holland, S.S. 1976. Landforms of British Columbia: a physiographic outline. Bulletin 48, British Columbia Department of Mines and Petroleum Resources. Victoria, British Columbia. 106 Hunt, R.S. and Unger, L. 1994. Forest pest leaflet: Tomentosus root disease. Forestry Canada, Forest Insect and Disease Survey. Pacific forestry Center, Victoria, B.C. Kneeshaw, D.D. and Burton, P.J. 1997. Canopy and age structures of some old sub-boreal Picea forests in British Columbia. Journal of Vegetation Science 8:615-626. Kneeshaw, D.D. and Bergeron, Y. 1998. Canopy gap characteristics and tree replacement in the southeastern boreal forest. Ecology 4(3):783-794. Lertzman, K.P. 1992. Patterns of gap-phase replacement in a sub alpine, old-growth forest. Ecology 78(2):657-669. Lewis, K.J. and Hansen, E.M. 1991a. Survival of Inonotus tomentosus in stumps and subsequent infection of young forests in north central British Columbia. Can. Jour.For. Res. 21:1049-1057. Lewis, K.J. and Hansen, E.M. 1991b. Vegetative compatibility groups and protein electrophoresis indicate a role for basidiospores in spread on Inonotus tomentosus in spruce forests of British Columbia. Can. J. Bot. 69:1756-1763. Lewis, K.J., Morrison, D.J. and Hansen, E.M. 1992. Spread o f Inonotus tomentosus from infection centers in spruce forests in British Columbia. Can. J. For. Res. 22:68-72. Lewis, K.J. 1997. Growth reduction in spruce infected by Inonotus tomentosus in central British Columbia. Can. J. For. Res. 27:1669-1674. Lewis, K.J. and Lindgren, B.S. 1999. Influence of decay fungi on species composition and size class structure in mature Picea glauca x engelmannii and Abies lasiocarpa in mature sub-boreal forests of central British Columbia. Ecology and Management 123:135-143. Meidinger, D. and Pojar, J. 1991. Ecosystems of British Columbia. Research Branch, Ministry of Forests. Crown Publications Inc. 330 pp. Merler, H.A. 1984. Tomentosus root rot of white spruce in central B.C. Masters Thesis, University o f British Columbia, Vancouver. Inonotustomentosus Merler, H.A., Shulting, P.J, and VanderKamp, B. 1988. (Fr.) Teng in central British Columbia. In Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Root and But Rots, Vernon and V ictoria, B.C., August 9-16, 1988. lUFRO working party s2.G6.Gl. Edited hy D. Morrison. Forestry Canada, Pacific Forestry Center, Victoria, B.C. 985 pp. 107 Parminter, J.V. 1992. Typical historic patterns of wildfire disturbance by biogeoclimatic zone. Protection Branch, BC, Ministry of Forests. Toothaker, L.E. 1993. Multiple Comparison Procedures. Sage University Papers. London, England. Veblen, T.T., Hadley, K.S., Nel, E.M., Kitzberger, T., Reid, M., and Villalba, R. 1994. Disturbance regime and disturbance interactions in a Rocky Mountain sub-alpine forest. Journal of Ecology 82:125-135. Welles, R.W., Lertzman, K.P. and Saunders, S.C.. 1998. Old-growth definitions for the forests o f British Columbia, Canada. Natural Areas Journal 18:279-292. Whitney, R.D. 1980. Polyporous tomentosus root and butt rot of trees in Canada. Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Problems of Root and Butt Rot in Conifers, Aug. 1978, Kassel, Germany. Edited by L. Pimitri. Whitney, R.D. 1993. Inonotus tomentosus in Ontario, and the effects of thinning on the disease. For. Chron, 69(4):445-449. Yamamoto, S. 1995. Gap characteristics and gap regeneration in sub-alpine old-growth coniferous forests, central Japan. Ecological Research 10:31-39. 108 Table 1. Summary of stand composition and mortality data. For the partial cut forest types, the mortality data do not include cut stems. Layer OG T (n = 21 ) OGNT (n = 23) PCT (n = 22) PC N T (n = 23) 3704/ 7 8 2 .5 1 3236/ 9 4 3 .9 8 3317/ 8 5 9 .1 0 2997/ 1 1 4 1 .8 6 P ercen t S p ru ce Density: M ean/SD 12/ 5 .8 4 17/ 6 .9 3 21/ 1 1 .4 2 23/ 1 0 .0 4 P ercen t Fir Density: M ean/SD 92/ 6 .4 9 86/ 7 .9 3 78/ 1 2 .0 2 77/ 1 0 .7 8 A v era g e D en sity (stem s/h a ): M ean/SD 813/ 2 1 0 .4 9 765/ 1 4 7 .5 7 760/ 1 9 5 .4 7 641/ 1 3 1 .8 7 P ercen t S p ru ce D ensity: M ean/SD 26/ 1 1 .1 4 3 0/ 8 .2 6 23/ 1 1 .2 7 33/ 1 3 .8 5 A v er a g e B a sa l Area (m^/ha): M ean/SD 3 6 .2 3 / 2.21 3 6 .5 3 / 2 .1 0 3 8 .2 5 / 2 .1 0 3 8 .5 1 / 2 .0 6 P ercen t S p ru ce B asal Area: M ean/SD 47/ 0 .1 6 57/ 0 .0 6 41 /0 .1 6 50/ 0 .1 8 A v er a g e Total Mortality (stem s/h a ): M ean/SD 3 5 5 .9 / 1 1 4 .7 3 4 0 .7 0 / 9 6 .7 2 2 5 3 .4 1 / 1 0 0 .4 8 2 9 2 .4 4 / 1 1 7 .3 9 A v era g e S p ru ce Mortality (stem s/h a ): M ean/SD 1 4 8 .1 7 / 7 2 .8 9 1 4 2 .6 3 / 7 1 .8 7 5 9 .5 5 / 5 0 .1 8 5 5 .0 1 / 4 0 .7 4 A v era g e B a sa l Area Mortality (m 2/ha): M ean/SD 2 6 .5 2 / 9 .8 0 2 9 .3 3 / 9 .8 0 1 7 .1 6 / 8 .9 9 1 8 .2 8 / 9 .1 8 P ercen t S p ru ce Mortality of Total Mortality: M ean/SD 51/ 0 .1 9 56/ 0 .1 9 31/ 0 .2 6 27/ 0 .2 9 31/ 0 .2 8 N/A 15/ 0 .1 9 N/A Stand Attribute A vera g e D en sity (ste m s/h a ; M ean/SD ) R egen eration Layer C an op y Layer P ercen t S p ru ce Mortality C a u se d by Inonotus tomentosus: M ean/SD 109 Table 2. Species composition dynamic over the next 200 years for each forest type based on the average annual mortality rates for each species since 1930 and the transition probability for each gap-maker obtained from the transition matrices since 1970. The illustrations assume no catastrophic or high intensity disturbance occurs during the modeling horizon. OGNT = old-growth without 7. tomentosus caused mortality, OGT = old with 7. tomentosus caused mortality, PCNT = partial cut forests without 7. tomentosus caused mortality, PCT = partial cut forests with 7. tomentosus caused mortality. Treat­ m ent OGNT OGT PCNT PCT Current Composition Spruce 0.30 0.26 0J3 0.23 Fir 0.65 0.70 0.63 0.72 Other 0,05 0.04 0.04 0.05 + 100 years + 50 years Spruce 0.27 Fir 0.23 0.73 0.62 0.73 0.34 0.23 0.68 Other 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 Spruce 0.24 0.20 0.36 0.23 Fir 0.71 0.76 0.60 0.73 + 200 years Other 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 Spruce 0.17 0.14 0.38 0.24 Fir 0.77 0.81 0.57 0.74 Other 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.02 110 OGT OGNT 14 0 120 100 S' 80 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 D e c a d e o f M o r t a lit y D e c a d e o f M o r t a lit y Abies Picea PCT PCNT S- 80 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 D e c a d e o f M o r ta lity D e c a d e o f M o r ta lity Figure 1. Disturbance chronologies for the four forest types. Each bar represents the average mortality (stems/ha) occurring in each decade for spruce and fir species and total mortality which includes other species (never exceeds more than 22 stems/ha). Ill 1930-1950 Figure 2. Transition probability data from 1930-1950 for: OGNT = old-growth without /. tomentosus caused mortality, OGT = old with I. tomentosus caused mortality, PCNT = partial cut forests without I. tomentosus caused mortality, PCT = partial cut forests with /. tomentosus caused mortality. In all cases the transitions are in the form of gap-maker : gap-filler. For example the Spruce:Fir transition indicates a Spruce mortality being replaced by an Fir gap-filler. Data are presented in triads such that each gap-making species has three possible transition outcomes and there are three possible gap-making species. Thus, for each forest type, transition probabilities total one for each species of gap-maker. (N < 5 for Spruce gap makers in the PCNT forest type). 112 1950-1970 8 2 Q. (/) 8 2 Q. CO Ll 8 3 Q. CO 0) 5 O Vi hectare) and relatively homogeneous mixtures of spruce and fir on medium to good sites, undisturbed by human activities, with minimal variation in soils and topography. Each of the 12 stands was ground checked for appropriate characteristics and a number were dropped because they didn’t meet the initial criteria. Each stand was checked for the presence of I. tomentosus using standard field techniques (Finck et al. 1989). In living trees, the primary diagnostic of I. tomentosus are large, longitudinal pits formed in roots with advanced decay and the presence of dark reddishbrown stain in the roots with relatively recent infection (Finck et al. 1989). After a tree dies, the longitudinal pits can be used to confirm I. tomentosus for 30-40 years before decomposition makes diagnosis less reliable. Three stands were selected with relatively abundant I. tomentosus infection (510%) and mortality throughout and three stands were selected without any apparent I. tomentosus infection. Plot 1 was located in a stand on the west side of the Aleza Road approximately 2.5kms south of the junction of the Bear Road and the Aleza Road. Plot 2 was located in a stand on the north side of the Bear Road approximately 1km east of the junction of the Bear Road and the Aleza Road. Plot 3 was located on the south side of the 120 East Loop Road approximately 500m east of the junction of the Old Ranger Road and the East Loop Road. Plot 4 was located in a stand on the East side of the Aleza Road about l.Skms south of the switchback approaching Camp Creek. Plot 5 was located in a stand on the south east side of the Bear Road (near an secondary access road) about 3.5kms south-west of the Aleza Road and Bear Road junction. Plot 6 was located in a stand on the east side of the Aleza Road about 700m south of the Aleza Road and Upper Fraser Road junction. In all cases, the plots were established on flat areas, with well-drained loamy soils. Indicator plant species present on the plots suggested that the sites were broadly mesic in moisture status and medium to rich in nutrient status (DeLong 1996). Soil moisture and nutrient status were not determined quantitatively because qualitative assessments of edaphic characteristics provide acceptable means of characterizing relative soil moisture and nutrient status within the same biogeoclimatic sub-zone (Klinka et al. 1989). 5.23 Sampling design and plot measurements Within each of the six identified stands, one 70 x 70 meter plot (0.49 ha) was established. This plot size was selected because it was large enough to include many gaps. Each plot was sub-divided into a grid network with 7 x 7 meter spacing along each axis using a laser-surveying instrument (Criterion 400, Laser Technology Inc.). The seven meter spacing was chosen to sample at least 100 trees in each plot. There were 11 lines along each axis for a total of 121 grid points located at the intersection of each line. 121 At each grid point a wooden stake was labeled according to its location on the grid {i.e. x,y coordinates) and driven into the ground. The canopy tree (defined as any tree whose crown receives direct sunlight from above) whose stem was closest to each grid point was then mapped relative to the grid point and was coded according to species, diameter, and live crown ratio (Frelich and Graumlich 1994). This canopy criteria was used because trees whose crowns receive direct light from above may have been released due to a gap-making event. Trees whose crowns do not receive direct light from above are assumed to be suppressed by the crown of neighboring trees. Selection of the nearest stem, rather than using the nearest crown results in the best estimate of original gap area before lateral crown expansion of bordering trees into the gap (Frelich and Martin 1988; Lorimer and Frelich 1989). From each canopy tree, one increment core was taken at 1.0 m to avoid, as much as possible, losses in core information due to butt rot. Cores terminating within 2 cm of the estimated location of the pith were considered complete and the total age was extrapolated from the earliest five years growth to the pith (Frelich and Graumlich 1994; Frelich and Reich 1995). If a complete core could not be taken from a tree after several attempts, the next closest tree was selected. The cores were labeled according to the grid point location, stored in plastic straws, dried, mounted on grooved rigid foam strips, sanded, and scanned. Ring width increments were digitally scanned and analyzed with Windendro® (Regent Instruments, Blaine, Quebec). Increment data was graphed for visual inspection of radial growth patterns. 122 5.24 Interpretation o f Growth Patterns Three general criteria were used to relate growth rate patterns to canopy mortality (Chapter 3). The tree criteria were: 1) High rates of early growth (1.5mm/yr for spruce, 1.7mm/yr for fir, and 1.07mm/yr for birch) indicate a tree was growing in a gap (created by a disturbance) when it was very young. 2) Tree release (>65%, sustained for 15 years, preceded by 15yrs of slow growth, for spruce <40cm dbh and for fir and birch <3 0cm dbh) indicates a tree was suppressed in the understory and then released by an overhead mortality. 3) Interpretations of overall growth patterns (see Chapter 3) indicating either gap origin status or release were used to determine the decade of canopy ascension for canopy trees not meeting gap-origin or release criteria. 5.25 Analysis for Spatial Patterns of Disturbance The spatial patterns of canopy ascension dates were used to describe the spatial patterns of small-scale disturbance in the 70x70 meter grid plots. This approach does not require knowledge of locations of canopy trees when they died, but rather assumes that canopy ascension dates coincide with overhead mortalities in the vicinity. Spatial autocorrelation analysis using Moran’s 1 is used to test for spatial independence in canopy ascension date at one locality relative to adjacent localities. Adjacency is specified for the analysis depending on the inter-tree distance and the lag distance set for the analysis (Sokal and Oden 1978a; Sokal and Oden 1978b; Legendre and Fortin 1989; Frelich et al. 1993; Frelich and Reich 1995). Thus, trees within the set distance lag are considered adjacent and those outside the lag are ignored. For this analysis a cumulative distance lag is employed and the analysis determines the Moran’s 1 statistic for the decade of canopy 123 ascension for any tree within 7 meters of another. Each additional lag includes the previous lag distance plus 7 meters. Interpreting Moran’s I is similar to interpretations for the standard correlation coefficient (Sokal and Oden 1978a; Sokal and Rohlf 1995; Frelich et al. 1993; Frelich and Reich 1995). This statistic represents the strength of spatial association for canopy ascension dates for a defined distance lag (Frelich and Graumlich 1994). Moran’s I was determined for each distance lag (i.e. 0-7m 0-14m, 0-2Im, etc.) and a correlogram was construeted for each plot up to 70 meters. Each correlogram plots the Moran’s I statistic for each distance lag on the ordinate axis and the distance lag on the abscissa. High positive values of Moran’s I at short distances indicate that canopy ascension date is strongly correlated with canopy ascension dates in neighboring trees. Values of Moran’s I will gradually decrease as distance increases in uneven-aged forests because date of release will not be reliably predicted by a neighbor’s date of release. Significance testing of the correlograms was done first at the global level by determining if at least one pvalue for individual Moran’s I coefficients was significant at the global level. This was done by using the Bonferroni correction method for multiple tests (e.g. a = 0.05/number of distance lags (11)) (Sokal and Oden 1978a). If the global test is has at least one significant Moran’s I coefficient then the point at which Moran’s I becomes no longer significant (a = 0.05) can be interpreted as the average patch size diameter created by disturbance (Frelich et al. 1993; Frelich and Reich 1995). Globally insignificant correlograms are interpreted that average patch size diameter is less than the distance lag. 124 spatial autocorrelation analysis was also used to determine the tendency towards association or disassociation between pairs of unlike or like species. (Sokal and Oden 1978a; Frelich et al. 1993; Frelich and Reich 1995). With species data, a join-counts statistic was calculated for spruce-fir joins, spruce - spruce joins, and fir-fir joins. The join-counts calculation is done between one sampled canopy tree at a given location and each remaining canopy tree immediately surrounding it on the grid in all directions within 7 meters. This connection scheme is a queens connection matrix (Sokal and Oden 1978a). Significance testing (a = 0.05) is performed by calculating a standard normal deviate (S.N.D) for each join possibility. Significant positive spatial autocorrelation for a joinpair is indicated by S.N.D’s > 2.0. Significant negative spatial autocorrelation for ajoinpair is indicated by S.N.D’s < -2.0. No significant autocorrelation (p>0.05) of species is indicated by S.N.D’s between -2.0 and 2.0 (Moran 1948; Sokal and Oden 1978a; Reed and Burkhart 1985; Frelich and Reich 1995). 125 5.30 RESULTS 5.31 Canopy Composition Spruce canopy composition averaged 29.9% for the three I. tomentosus infected plots (n = 345), while fir canopy composition was 66.1%. I. tomentosus incidence was estimated at between 5-10%. For the three uninfected plots (n = 344), spruee density was 32.6%, while fir density was 58.7%. No significant difference (1,634) = 0.0957) (a = 0.05) was found for the proportion of spruce in the canopy between the two forest types. 5.32 Canopy Ascension Type by Species From the 334 canopy trees sampled in the I. tomentosus plots, there were 369 canopy ascensions and for the uninfected plots there were 401 canopy ascensions recorded from 336 increment cores (Table 1). No significant difference (%^ (1,243) = 0.1523) was found between infeeted and uninfected forest types in the proportion of gap origin verses release events for spruce or fir (Table 1). 5.33 Canopy Ascension by Decade In each forest type, canopy ascensions were recorded as early as 1675 (Figure 1 and 2). For plot one (Figure 1) the species ascending to the canopy between 1670 and 1680 was a spruce and for plot four (Figure 2) the species was a Douglas-fir. Very little mortality was recorded before 1795, which is likely because trees which would have responded to the mortality prior to that have died and because the criteria used for canopy ascension are vigorous enough to avoid detecting canopy thinning events in when the stand was younger. 126 With the exception of plot 2 and 6 (Figure 1), the highest rate of canopy ascension occurred between 1960 and 1970. For plots and 6 the highest rate of canopy ascension occurred between 1970 and 1980. The maximum canopy ascension in these decades ranged from a high of 52.50% of stand area in plot 3 to a low of 14.05% in plot one. Since the canopy ascensions recorded before 1800 were sporadic, average estimates of stand area converted to gaps in each decade (canopy turnover) were calculated from 1800 to 1998. Average canopy turnover rates were fairly consistent for all six plots, ranging from a maximum of 6.00% in plot 3 to a minimum of 5.09% in plots 2,5 and 6. 5.34 Spatial Patterns of Canopy Disturbance Figures 3 and 4 show some degree of clumping in ascension cohorts. The spatial pattern of canopy ascension since about 1750 is generally characterized by small gaps created in a given decade or couple of decades interspersed with canopy ascension dates separated by a few decades or more. A global significance test for the correlograms using the Bonferroni correction method indicted that at least one p-value for a Moran’s I coefficient in a correlogram must be <0.005. Only Plot 3 (Figure 6) had any significant Moran’s I coefficients at the global level. However, the significant Moran’s I coefficients were close to zero which indicate there was no similarity in disturbance date. Therefore, all six correlograms indicate that average gap size caused by disturbance is less than 7 meters in diameter. No differences in correlogram structure between I. tomentosus plots and uninfected plots were evident indicating that the pattern of disturbance in /. tomentosus stands is similar to uninfected stands. 127 5.35 Spatial Patterns of Species Patches Standard normal deviates (S.N.D’s) (Table 2) indicate that: 1) positive spatial autocorrelation {i.e. clumping) generally exists for spruce; 2) Fir-spruce spatial patterns are random and; 3) there is a weak trend for fir to be negatively associated with itself. There does not appear to be an effect of I. tomentosus on the species patch structure since fir has a random arrangement, as evidenced by the not statistically significant (a>0.05), low-order negative values of the indicated S.N.D’s (Table 2). 128 5.4 DISCUSSION 5.41 Spatial Patterns of Disturbance Fir was the most frequent species entering the canopy in all six plots since canopy replacement began at about 1750. However, fir was associated with canopy ascensions occurring in more recent decades than in earlier decades where spruce was more common. The same trend was reported in Chapter 4 where transition probability data suggested that fir has become the dominant species of understory tree currently replacing canopy trees (regardless of species) for the last 50 years. It is evident then that canopy composition of fir has been increasing in recent decades. It can be speculated that ultimately a shift from a spruce and fir mixed forest to a fir dominated forest is likely. Since the incidence of infection in these stands was low to moderate (5-10%), small patches of disturbance irregularly distributed were noted. Given a higher (>15%) incidence o f infection it is possible that gaps created would be larger due to coalescence of infection centers (Lewis et al. 1992). Gap size averages <7m in diameter but varies from small (<7m diameter) to fairly large (28m diameter) openings created in the canopy (Figures 3, 4, 5, and 6). The openings are irregularly distributed over the stands. This type of spatio-temporal pattern of disturbance suggests that windthrow or windsnap, ice and snow damage, root diseases, senescence and endemic populations of spruce bark beetle have been the predominant disturbances in these stands since the last catastrophic disturbance. The result is a patch­ work pattern of disturbance which has enabled understory recruitment to the canopy. Note that the locations of canopy ascension dates (Figures 3 and 4) clearly show larger gaps than the Moran’s I analysis indicates. Moran’s I analysis only interprets average gap 129 size. Thus, the larger patches of disturbance especially during the 1960-1980 (Figures 3 and 4) period represent variation in the disturbance regime, but the higher frequency of smaller gaps than larger gaps in these forests bring average gap-size diameter below 7m. The discrepancy between correlogram structures (Figures 5 and 6) and the physical representation of the data (Figures 3 and 4) suggests that larger scale disturbances, possibly caused by more wide spread bark beetle, snow, ice or windthrow occasionally influenced stands but overall the disturbance regime is one of single tree mortality dispersed irregularly throughout the forests. 5.42 Species Patch Structure Spruce was 28.4% and 32.6% of canopy density (stems/hectare) for the infeeted and uninfected stands respectively, was significantly positively correlated with itself. Therefore spruce is more likely to be associated with itself than other species. Fir:Fir joins were not statistically significant as were Spruce:Fir joins. Several ecological explanations are plausible for the statistical grouping of spruce as shown. Spruce grouping may be linked to a combination of the following: 1) the establishment of spruce regeneration on nurse logs, 2) exposed mineral soil caused by root tip-ups due to windthrow, or 3) the grouping of a residual old spruce cohort. 130 5.5 CONCLUSIONS Based on spatial-autocorrelation analysis of release dates in understory trees, canopy gaps are small and irregularly located in the wet Sub-Boreal Spruce forests at Aleza Lake. These forests are affected by a variety of disturbance agents. While I. tomentosus is a significant cause of tree mortality in some stands, its pattern of disturbance was not found to be unlike other disturbance patterns based on this analysis. The combined impacts of all the disturbances have enabled understory recruitment to the canopy as early as the late 1600’s. In recent decades significant mortality (as high as 52.5%) has occurred and although this rate happened in only one plot, disturbances over 10% of stand area occurred quite often. This rate of canopy mortality suggests that the forests may be changing from a multi-aged old-growth stand to an uneven-aged old-growth forest, defined here as a forest in which all of the original cohort has died and has since been replaced by understory species. Current fir canopy composition is 66% in /. tomentosus infected stands versus 59% in uninfected stands. However, much of the replacement that has been occurring over the last 50 years, consists of fir. Therefore spruce composition in the canopy has been declining and will likely continue to decline due to the small gap disturbance regime which suites fir shade tolerance and seed germination strategies better than spruce. However greater life-spans for spruce will help to maintain it in the canopy (Lewis and Lindgren 1999), particularly in these stands with low I. tomentosus incidence. Species patch analysis indicated that spruce was positively associated with itself which is probably due to clumping of spruce on nurse logs or exposed mineral soil cause by root tip-ups and the grouping of a residual old spruce cohort. The decline of spruce due to a 131 variety of disturbance mechanisms suggests that over time the old-growth forests will be dominated by fir in canopy composition and spruce may decline to about 10% of stand composition (Chapter 4). 132 5.6 LITERATURE CITED Alverson, K.K., Wallin, D.M. and Solheim, S.L. 1988. Forest too deer; edge effects in northern Wisconsin. Conservation Biology 2: 348-358. Bellehumeur, C., Legendre, P. and Marcotte, D. 1997. Variance and spatial scales in a tropical rain forest: changing the size of sampling units. Plant Ecology. 130: 89-98. Decie, T. 1957. Working plan for the forest experiment station Aleza Lake: for the period April U*, 1957 to March 3 L', 1967. British Columbia Forest Service. Prince George, BC. DeLong, S.C. 1996. A field guide for identification and interpretation of ecosystems: draft field guide insert for site identification and interpretation for the southeast portion of the Prince George Forest Region. British Columbia Ministry of Forests, Victoria, BC. DeLong, S.C. and Tanner, D. 1996. Managing the pattern of forest harvest: lessons from wildfire. Biodiversity and Conservation 51191-1205. Finck, K.E., Humphreys, P. and Hawkins, G.V. 1989. Field guide to pests of managed forests in British Columbia. Forestry Canada, Pacific and Yukon Region. Victoria, BC. Frelich, L.E. and Martin, G.L. 1988. Effects of crown expansion into gaps on evaluation of disturbance intensity in northern hardwood forests. Forest Science 34: 530-536. Frelich, L.E., Calcote, R.R., Davis, M.B. and Pastor, J. 1993. Patch formation and maintenance in an old-growth hemlock-hardwood forest. Ecology 74(2): 513527. Frelich, L. E. and Graumlich, L.J. 1994. Age-class distribution and spatial patterns in an old-growth hemlock hardwood forest. Can. J. For. Res. 24: 1939-1947. Frelich, L.E. and Reich, P.B. 1995. Spatial patterns and succession in a Minnesota southern-boreal forest. Ecological Monographs. 65: 325-346. Hawkes, B., Vasbinder, W. and DeLong, C.G. 1997. Retrospective fire study: fire regimes in the SBSvk & ESSFwk2/wc3 biogeoclimatic units of northeastern British Columbia. McGregor Model Forest Association. Prince George, BC. 34 pp. Holland, S.S. 1976. Landforms o f British Columbia: a physiographic outline. Bulletin 48, British Columbia Department of Mines and Petroleum Resources. Victoria, British Columbia. 133 Hunt, R.S. and Unger, L. 1994. Forest pest leaflet: Tomentosus root disease. Forestry Canada, Forest Insect and Disease Survey. Pacific forestry Center, Victoria, B.C. Johnson, E.A. 1992. Fire and vegetation dynamics. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, England. Klinka, K., Krajina, V.J., Ceska, A. and Scagel, A.M. 1989. Indicator plants of coastal British Columbia. University of British Columbia Press. Vancouver, British Columbia. Legendre, P. and Fortin, M.J. 1989. Spatial pattern and ecological analysis. Vegetatio 80: 107-138. Lewis, K.J. and Hansen, E.M. 1991. Vegetative compatibility groups and protein electrophoresis indicate a role for basidiospores in spread on Inonotus tomentosus in spruce forests of British Columbia. Can. J. Bot. 69:1756-1763. Lewis, K.J., Morrison, D.J. and Hansen, E.M. 1992. Spread o ï Inonotus tomentosus from infection centers in spruce forests in British Columbia. Can. J. For. Res. 22:68-72. Lewis, K.J. and Lindgren, B.S. 1999. Influence of decay fungi on species composition and size class structure in mature Picea glauca x engelmannii and Abies lasiocarpa in mature sub-boreal forests of central British Columbia. Ecology and Management 123:135-143. Lewis, K.J. 1997. Growth reduction in spruce infected hy Inonotus tomentosus in central British Columbia. Can. J. For. Res. 27: 1669-1674. Lorimer, C.G. and Frelich, L.E. 1989. A methodology for estimating canopy disturbance frequency and intensity in dense temperate forests. Can. Jour. for. Res. 19: 651663. Moran, P.A.P. 1948. The interpretation of statistical maps. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Serb. 10:243-251. Meidinger, D. and Pojar, J. 1991. Ecosystems of British Columbia. Research Branch, Ministry of Forests. Crown Publications Inc. 330 pp. Mlandenoff, D.J., White, M.A., Pastor, J. and Crow, T.R. 1993. Comparing spatial patterns in an unaltered old-growth and disturbed forest landscape. Ecological Applications 3: 294-306. Oliver, C D. and Larson, C.B. 1996. Forest Stand Dynamics. John Wiley and Sons. Toronto. 527 pp. 134 Parminter, J. and Daigle, P. 1997. Landscape Ecology and Natural Disturbances: Relationships to Biodiversity. Ministry of Forests, Victoria British Columbia. Research Extension Note #10 Qi, Y. and Wu, J. 1996. Effects of changing spatial resolution on the results of landscape pattern analysis using spatial autocorrelation indices. Landscape Ecology. 11(1): 39-49. Reed, D.D., and Burkhart, H.E. 1985. Spatial autocorrelation of individual tree characteristics in loblolly pine stands. Forest Science. 31(3):575-587. Sokal, R.R. and Oden, N.L. 1978a. Spatial autocorrelation in biology: 1 methodology. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society. 10: 199-228. Sokal, R.R. and Oden, N.L. 1978b. Spatial autocorrelation in biology: 2 some biological implications and four applications of evolutionary and ecological interest. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society. 10: 229-249. Sokal, R.R. and Rohlf, F.J. 1995. Biometry: the principles and practice of statistics in biological research. Third edition. W.H. Freeman and Company. New York. 135 Table 1. Proportion o f canopy ascension types by treatment type, and species. T yp e o f a s c e n s io n T reatm ent S p e c ie s R e le a s e G ap Total 0 .5 6 0.41 0 .6 2 113 242 0 .0 0 1.0 0 0 .4 7 0 1 Infected Infected Infected S p ru ce Fir 0 .4 4 0 .5 9 Birch 0 .3 8 Infected Infected U ninfected U ninfected H em lock D ouglas-fir 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 S p ru ce Fir 0 .5 3 0 .5 4 U ninfected Birch 0 .5 7 0 .4 3 U ninfected H em lock D ouglas-fir 0 .5 5 0 .4 5 0 .6 7 356 U ninfected Total 0 .3 3 414 0 .4 6 13 131 235 21 11 3 770 136 Table 2. Summary of spatial autocorrelation of species association using joins-count statistics. Standard Normal Deviates greater than 2.0 indicate a higher than expected number of like joins which is interpreted as significant spatial autocorrelation. T reatm ent Plot Fir-Spruce Joins S.N.D. Fir-Fir Joins S.N.D. SpruceSpruce Joins S.N.D. Infected 1 59 1 .0 5 2 0 59 -1 .2 3 1 0 12 1 .7 8 6 0 Infected 2 1 .1 1 3 7 13 6 0 .7 4 5 0 60 74 -1 .3 2 2 7 Infected 61 43 -1 .0 7 0 3 13 2 .0 2 5 6 2 .9 0 0 2 Not Infected 3 42 0 .5 9 4 9 46 -1 .0 8 7 9 21 3 .2 1 4 0 Not Infected 4 56 0 .8 4 3 3 36 -1 .3 0 8 1 24 2 .7 7 7 5 Not Infected 5 49 1 .0 0 0 9 78 -1 .2 2 4 8 10 2 .4 5 5 7 137 S p r u c e a Fir O O th e r Plot 1 20 (Q O 10 0 “T— 05 O I— I— I— I— r N CO O N Nl W O O O -> l O CO o o O CO* CO* CO* CO CO* CO* CO* 00 CO CO CO CO cn CO N CO CO CO* (0 * CO* CO* CO* 00 CO CO o CD CO CO C J1 CD o o o o CO* CO CO* CO* CO* CO CO CD CO o c;i o 00 N 00 CO o o CO* CO* CO* CO* o CO o o o o P lo t 2 20 (Q 0) 10 0 ,H ,H o> N O o CO -««j 'n J CO 00 o cn o N CO O co" 's i N o o CO CO* ■'>1 CO o cn o o CO* CO* CO* N CO 00 o w o cn o CO N o CO CO CO o CO CO o o CO* CO* CO* CO* CO* CO* CO* CO GO CO cn o CO o CO CO CO* CO* CO* CO N o o P lo ts 20 -I < o0 1 -1 10 0 — r........1........r.......,......... ,.......,........ ,........1........ ,........■......................................p (7 ) -s | O ) CO (A crT o o o c/f C O g o crT CO 's i o CO . ....... M CO CO o o CO CO - - I nn 1 CO CO CO o cn o N o CO CO CO CO CO CD O CO o o CO CO* CO* CO CO CO cn o CO o " S j o CO CO CO* CO* CO* CO* o Figure 2. Canopy ascension by decade and by species for Inonotus tomentosus uninfected plots (Plots 3,4, and 5). 139 Plot 2 Plot 1 0 7 14 21 56 63 28 35 42 70 77 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 Plot 6 >1800 1 8 0 0 -1 8 2 0 1 8 2 0 -1 8 4 0 1 8 4 0 -1 8 6 0 1 8 6 0 -1 8 8 0 1 8 8 0 -1 9 0 0 1 9 0 0 -1 9 2 0 1 9 2 0 -1 9 4 0 1 9 4 0 -1 9 6 0 1 9 6 0 -1 9 8 0 1980+ 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 Figure 3. Locations o f canopy ascension dates for trees in the three infected plots. Numbers on the axis are in meters. Blank squares indicate that no canopy tree was found within seven meters o f the sampling location on the 7 by 7 meter grid. 140 P lo ts 0 7 14 21 Plot 4 28 35 42 49 58 63 70 77 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 Plot 5 >1800 1800-1820 1820-1840 1840-1860 1860-1880 1880-1900 1900-1920 1920-1940 1940-1960 1960-1980 1980+ 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 Figure 4. Locations o f canopy ascension dates for trees in the three uninfected plots. Numbers on the axis are in meters. Blank squares indicate that no canopy tree was found within seven meters o f the sampling location on the 7 by 7 meter grid. 141 77 P2 P6 0.2 0.1 5 0 .0 5 -0 .0 5 - 0.1 -0.15 - 0.2 Distance (m) Figure 5. Correlogram showing Moran’s I statistic on the ordinate axis and distance lag on the abscissa for plots 1,2 and 6 (plots with Inonotus tomentosus). Open symbols represent statistically significant Moran’s I coefficients. 142 P3 P5 P4 0.2 0 .1 5 0 .0 5 -0.05 - 0.1 -0 .1 5 - 0.2 Distance (m) Figure 6. Correlogram showing Moran’s I statistic on the ordinate axis and distance lag on the abscissa for plots 3,4, and 5 (plots free of Inonotus tomentosus). Open symbols represent statistically significant Moran’s 1 coefficients. 143 CHAPTER 6. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS 6.0 STUDY RATIONALE Ecosystems cross a hierarchy of scales. A downed log on the forest floor is an ecosystem with its own biophysical attributes. This log is part of a larger ecosystem, perhaps an old spruce-fir stand. The spruce-fir stand is part of a watershed or a landscape ecosystem, and the landscape part of a regional ecosystem. The large regional ecosystem fits into an even larger biome such as the boreal forest in this example. At each successive level in the hierarchy, more species are involved; there is more variation in physical characteristics; and, the interactions, function, structure, and dynamics become more complex and variable. At each stage in the hierarchy forest ecosystems have unique structure, specialized functions, complex interactions and are continually changing. Individual ecosystems vary in their own complexity over time and the level of complexity between ecosystems also varies. However, the resiliency and stability of ecosystems are greatest when their complexity is maximized (Kimmins 1997). Human influence on ecosystems has generally caused a decrease in complexity and therefore a reduction in their resilience and stability. Forests have been cleared throughout the world and are replaced with agricultural ecosystems. The orehard, com or wheat field is managed for one species and increasingly genetically identical individuals. Wetlands have been drained to support agriculture or urban development. Natural forests are being cleared to make way for managed forests, converting a landscape with astonishing biological diversity to a landscape where only a few species are managed to optimize timber produetion on short economic rotations. 144 Knowledge about ecosystem structure, function, complexity, interactions and change is crucial in order to understand the impact of human influence on the environment. This knowledge may be critical for the survival of our species because accumulated effects of ecosystem degradation may affect the entire biosphere, the atmosphere and the hydrosphere. Together these define the biophysical characteristics of the ultimate ecosystem. Earth. Evidence of these global consequences of ecosystem mismanagement are already evident: global warming, desertification, extinctions, soil erosion, and stream siltation. As natural ecosystems are lost and the integrity of remaining ones compromised, the concept of ecosystem management has crept into the dialogue of land and resource management. Ecosystem management adopts principles that are entrenched in ‘landscape ecology’ and ‘natural disturbance ecology’ (Parminter and Daigle 1997). One of the concepts of landscape ecology in the forestry context is that if forest management mimics natural disturbances, inherent ecosystem attributes will be preserved and important ecological processes will be maintained (Parminter and Daigle 1997). It follows from this principle that if natural disturbances are large and catastrophic then large clearcuts of the same size, pattern and concentration would be the appropriate harvesting method to mimic this disturbance. Similarly if small-scale disturbances are predominant then, partial cut harvesting methods would be most appropriate. Most often landscapes are not dominated by one disturbance pattern or type. Landscapes are shaped due to a variety of disturbances operating at a variety of scales and intensities (White 1987; Engelmark et al. 1993). Forest management should therefore employ variation when planning land-use activities to reflect the variation in pattern caused by natural processes. 145 In boreal forests considerable effort has been directed towards studying landscape level disturbance patterns and stand dynamics. Much of the work has concentrated on characterizing the fire return interval, patch size of fire disturbances and the resultant landscape level age-class mosaic (Bergeron et al. 1993). For example, much of the subboreal, montane forests in central interior of British Columbia are composed of fireorigin forests whose climax species composition on upland sites are dominated by spruce (Picea glauca, Picea engelmannii or Picea glauca x engelmannii), Abies lasiocarpa, Pinus conforta, Populus tremuloides, Pseudotsuga menziesii, and Betula papyrifera. Although dryer parts of the region were burned by wildfire at intervals ranging from 150250 years (British Columbia Ministry of Forests and B.C. Ministry of Environment, Lands, and Parks 1995), wetter parts, particularly those in the foot-hills and sub-alpine elevations historically had fire return intervals ranging from 227-6250 years (Hawkes et. al. 1997). Within these wet, mountainous areas, information is lacking about the spatiotemporal pattern of small-scale disturbances and on subsequent stand dynamics (succession). Small-scale disturbances have been shown to be important processes in many forested ecosystems including boreal forest ecosystems. However, studying the patterns and processes of small-scale disturbances have typically been neglected in boreal forests simply because fire was conventionally thought to be the main disturbance agent in this forest type (Bergeron et. al. 1993). In wet boreal and sub-boreal forests, fire return intervals have been shown to be quite long, often approaching intervals that are characteristic of more humid environments such as west-coast temperate rainforests, and sub-alpine forests. Given the long fire return intervals that are possible in these wet, cool 146 boreal forests, small-scale disturbances have been identified as a factor in modifying the forest community (population structure and demographics) and the physical environment (light regimes, temperature, moisture regimes and nutrient availability and dynamics) (Bergeron et al. 1993). The extent of their influence is related to the length of time between catastrophic disturbances. Windthrow, insect attacks, and root diseases, are important types of small-scale disturbance agents in these forests (Hofgaard 1993; Kneeshaw and Burton; 1997; Kneeshaw and Bergeron 1998). One of the most important small-scale disturbances in boreal forests is Inonotus tomentosus. This root disease pathogen is ubiquitous in Picea spp. forests and is responsible for significant mortality especially in mature forest ecosystems dominated by Picea spp. (Lewis 1997). Therefore understanding the role of I. tomentosus in stand disturbances is necessary in order to understand its impact on Picea spp. forest communities which make up a significant component of boreal and sub-boreal forest landscapes. Secondly, the patterns of disturbance in general are useful in designing forest harvesting activities that mimic natural disturbance patterns. And, lastly in order to confidently prescribe partial cut harvesting systems, potentially adverse or undesirable impacts on stand composition and structure that occur because of potential interactions between partial cutting and I. tomentosus need to be understood or ruled out. In order to contribute to the knowledge and understanding of disturbance ecology and stand dynamics of wet, natural and unmanaged sub-boreal spruce forests in central British Columbia, this thesis raised three basic questions: 1. What are the spatial and temporal patterns of disturbance for old-growth forests with and without the influence of /. tomentosus! 147 2. How does stand composition and structure differ between I. tomentosus infected and non-infected old-growth forests? 3. How does partial cutting influence stand development in I. tomentosus infected and non-infected forests? The remainder of this chapter summarizes the findings of the thesis research, discusses potential applications of the methodology developed for this research and discusses future research needs. 148 6.1 SUMMARY OF RESEARCH 6.11 Canopy Disturbance 1) Disturbance History: Mortality of canopy trees was indicated by tree ring information sporadically as early as the 1670’s and was consistently evident since the late 1700’s. The oldest individuals in the stands were well over 300 years old and did not appear to have fire scars. Therefore, these indirect results show it has been at least 300 years since the last stand-replacing disturbance at Aleza Lake. If the last large scale fire occurred roughly 300 years ago, then mortality evident in the late 1700’s began approximately 100 after the fire. This would correspond to the timing of the understory re-initiation stage where mortality of canopy trees creates canopy gaps that allow understory species to regenerate and recruit to canopy positions. 2) Canopy Disturbance Rates: Two independent studies (Chapter 4 and Chapter 5) indicated similar levels o f canopy mortality in natural forests (un-harvested forests) as expressed by the percentage of canopy disturbance per decade. In a fine scale study (fixed radius plots. Chapter 4), average percent canopy disturbance was between 6.9% and 8.1% per decade. In a coarser-scale study (grid plots. Chapter 5), canopy disturbance averaged 5.09% and 6.0% per decade. Therefore based on widespread sampling in four different stands, using two independent approaches, canopy disturbance at Aleza Lake ranges on average from 5% to 8% per decade. 149 6.12 Gap Size Gap size was also determined using two independent and distinct methodologies developed in Chapter 4 and Chapter 5. In Chapter 4, the estimate of average singe-tree gap-size was 16.76m^. In Chapter 5, it was determined that patch diameter averaged <7m which corresponds to an gap area of about 38.5m^. Note that the 38.5m^ gap size estimate was limited to the lag distance specified in the spatial autocorrelation analysis (7m). Based on these two approaches, it is evident that average gap size is typically <38.5m^ indicating that the vast majority of gaps are due to single tree mortality. Larger gaps do form in these forests but with lower frequency than single tree gaps. 6.13 Canopy Mortality by Species In Chapter 3 it was determined that spruce accounted for 42% of total accumulated mortality and (because of its generally larger size) over 50% of accumulated basal area mortality. This high percentage of total mortality in old forests is likely due to the fact that a uniform cohort predominately composed of spruce, has been suffering high rates of mortality due to a variety of mechanisms. 6.14 Stand Composition, Canopy Replacement and Future Stand Composition Results from Chapter 4 and Chapter 5 indicate that canopy composition is dominated by fir at about 65-70% of canopy by stems per hectare for all size classes combined. Spruce represents about 25-30% of stand density and about 47-57% of basal area. Understory composition was also dominated by fir at 86%-92% of stand density. 150 Due to the high density of fir in the understory, canopy tree replacement by this species outnumbers all other understory species by at least 2:1. Due to high rates of spruce mortality over the last 50 years or more, and high proportion of fir replacing dead canopy trees of any species, the spruce component of the canopy has been on the decline for the past several decades. Fir composition has been increasing over the same period. Given the current combination of high canopy recruitment rates of fir, high spruce mortality and the overwhelming abundance of fir in the understory layer, fir populations will continue to increase over the next 200 years. 6.15 Impacts of Inonotus tomentosus and Partial Cutting on Disturbance and Stand Composition In old-growth forests with low to moderate infection incidence (