MARKETING PLANS, NOT JUST FOR PROFITS ANYMORE: HOW A YOUTH NOT -FOR-PROFIT ORGANIZATION CAN BENEFIT FROM A MARKETING PLAN by Linda Herman PROJECT SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION UNIVERSITY OF NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA March 2011 © Linda Herman, 20 11 UNIVERSITY of NORTHER BRITISH COLUMBIA UBRARY Prince George, B.C. ABSTRACT Prince George Youth Soccer Association ("PGYSA") is a not-for-profit association lacking a marketing plan. The motivation for this project was to develop a marketing plan for PGYSA, thus increasing membership, volunteers and sponsorship by 10% within two years. The significance of increasing membership and sponsorship is to maintain the affordability of the programming. Volunteers will be required to coach the additional teams created from the increased membership. Effective communication between PGYSA, its members and sponsors will allow for the maximum flow of information leading to long term partnerships. A Literature Review was performed to gain knowledge of existing marketing plans. Methodology included surveying PGYSA sponsors and membership, and collecting secondary data from School District 57 and PGYSA. Analysis of the research revealed that organizations need a marketing plan, whether for profit or not. The information from the surveys identifi ed new media as the vehicle to increase membership, sponsorship and volunteers. (ii) -----·--·--------·-·-- Table of Contents ABSTRACT ..... .. .... ... .. ... .. ... .. .. .. .... ... ...... ... .. .. ... .. ........ .... ...... ....... ......... ........... ........... .... ..... ... .... .... .. ........ .. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ......... ..... .... ............ ...... .... ........ .. ... ....... ............ ............. ... ... .. .... ......... .. ... ...... ..... .... ... ... iii/iv LIST OF TABLES ... .. .. ..... ... ..... ....... ...... .... ....... .............. .. ............ ........... .... ... ......... ... .. ................ ........ .... .. ... ...... .... v ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ........ ..... ...... ........ ........ ..... .......... .... ... .. ....... ... ......... .................... .... ..... .... ..... ............. .. .. ..vi INTRODUCTION .... ... .. ... .... ...... ..... ..... .. ..... .. ....... ......... .. .. .... ..... .... .. .... ............. .. ................ ......... .. ........ .. .. 1 Rationale for PGYSA Requiring a Marketing Plan .... ...... .. .. ...... ........ .... .. ...... ......... .. .. .. .............. ............. 1 PGYSA Programs ... ..... ... .. .......... .. .... ... ... .. ... ............ .... ... .... ....... ... .... .. .. ...... ..... .. ....... ....... .. .. ... ..... .. ....... .... 2 Description of PGYSA ... ... .. ...... .. ... ... .... ...... .... ........ ... .... ...... .... .... ........ ..... .... ..... ........... ...... .. .... .. .. ....... ... . 3 Situational Analysis ........ .. .... ... .. ..... ......... .. ..... ..... ..... ..... ... ... ... .... .. ..... .. .. ...... ....... ... .... ....... ..... .. ... .... .... .... 5 Value Provided to the Community .. .. .. .. .. .... .. ..... .. ....... .... ...... .... ... .. .............. .. ... ......... ..... .. ..... .. .... .... .. .... 9 LITERATURE REVIEW ... ... ..... .. ... ... .. .... ... .... ...... ... ... .. .. .. ... .. .. .... ..... .... ...... .... ... ....... .. ...... ..... ..... .. ... ... ..... ... 12 Importance of Marketing Plan for Not-For-Profit Organizations .. .. .. .... .. .... .... .... .. ........ .. ........ .. ........ .. . 12 Stakeholder Relationship M anagement.. ...... .. ....... .. .. ... .. ..... .. .. ............. .... ... .. ... .. .... ... ... .. .. ..... .. .......... .. 12 Stakeholder Th eory ........... ..... ....... .. ......... .... ..... .. ..... .... ......... .. .... ... ..... ........ .. ... ..... ... .. ...... .... ...... ..... ..... 14 Relation shi p M arketi ng ... ....... ............. ........... .. ..... ... .... ....... ... ... .... ...... ..... ....... ....... .......... .. .... ..... .... ..... 15 Cause Relat ed and Social Re spon si bility M arketing ... .. ... .. ...... .. .... ......... .. ...... .... .... .. ........ .. .. .. ...... ...... . 16 Th e 4 P's of M ark et ing .. ...... .. .. ........ .......... .... .. .... ...... .... .. .... .... .. .. .. .. .. .... .. ...... .. .. .. .. .... .. ........ ... ... .. ......... 17 Pu bli c Relat io ns ...... ..... .. ....... .... .. .... .... .. ....... .... .. ... ........ ..... .. ..... .. ... ... .. ........... .... .. .. .... .. .. .... ... .... .. .. ... ..... 19 Sponso rshi p .. ... ....... ... .. ..... ........... ..... ... ... .. .... .... ....... .... ...... .. ... ... ..... .... .. ... .. ..... ... ..... ....... ........ ...... .... ..... 19 Commun icat ions Channe l- New Med ia .... .. .. .. ... .. ....... .. .. .. .. .... ...... ..... ... ...... ... ......... ...... .. .. ....... .. .. .. .. .. . 20 Summ ary of Literature Revi ew .. ......... .......... .......... ...... ......... .... ..... ..... ......... ...... .... ... ..... ..... .. ..... ..... ..... 22 STRATEGIC A NALYSIS ... ..... ... ... .... ......... ..... .......... ... ...... ............... .... ......... ... ...... .. .. ... ... ........ ..... ... .... .... .. 23 TOWS (Th rea t s, Oppo rtu ni t ies, W ea kn esses and Strength s) ANALYSIS .. .. .. ........ .. .. .............. .. .. ........ .. 23 METHODOLOGY OF DATA COLLECTION ... ........ .. .. .. .. .... ... ... .. ... ... ............ .. .... .. ...... ... .... ..... .. ......... .. .. ... .. 24 Particip ants .. ... .. ... .... ....... .. ...... ... .... ... .. ....... ...... ................ .... .. .. ........ .. ...... ... .. ... ...... ..... ... ... ... .. ... ..... .. ... . 25 M ate ri als .. ... .. .... .. .. .... ... .. ........ .... .. ... .... ....... ........ ... .. .... ... ... ... .. ... .. ... .. ...... .. .... ... ..... .. ... .. .... .... .... .. .... .. ..... 25 ProceduresN alidi ty .. .. ... .. .... ....... .. .. ..... ... .. ... ..... ....... ... ..... ........ ..... ...... .... ... ...... ....... ...... ... ... ...... .... ..... ... 26 Sco pe and Lim it at ions ......... .. .... ..... .... ..... .. .... ...................... .. ..... .. ... .... .... .... ...... ... .. ... ........ .... ... .. ... .. ..... 27 RESU LTS ..... ... ... ..... .... .... .. .. .... ....... ...... ....... .... .. .......... ....... ..... ...... ...... ....... ..... .... ....... .. .... .. ... ...... .. ........ .. 28 Qua ntita ti ve A nalysi s of Survey Data .... .. .... .... ... .. ... ....... .. .. ....... ... .. .. ... .... ........ .. ... .... ...... .. ... ... .. .. ..... .. .. . 28 (iii ) Qualitative Analysis of Surveys .... ................... .......... .. ....... .................................................................. 31 Membership ......................................................................................................................................... 31 Sponsors ............................................................................................................................................... 31 Quantitative Analysis of Enrolment Data ............................................ .... .... .. .................................. ..... 32 ANALYSIS and DISCUSSION .............. ...... ...................... ............... ........... ................................. .......... ... 32 RECOMMENDATIONS .......................... ................................................................................................. 35 Product .... .. ....... ........ .. .. ... ...... ............................................................. ......... ........ ............ ..................... 35 Price ... ...... ..... ..... ...... ....... .... ... .... ........ ....................................................... .... .. .......... ..... .. ..................... 36 Financial Analysis ..... .. ... .... ........ .. .. ... .... ....... ............. .... .. ...... ..... .. .... .... .. .... ....... ... ...... ..... ................ ... .. . 36 Place ....... ... ......... .............. .... ...................................... ....... ........ ..... ....... ........ ......... ..... .... ..................... 39 Promotion ............... ............ ...... ..... ... ............... .... .. .... .... ........ ................ .. .............. .... .... .. ..... .... ....... ... . 39 CONCLUSION ....... .. ....... ..... ....... .... ...... ..... ........ .... .. .... ........ .. .... ... .... ... .. ...... ... ... ................... .. ....... ... .. .. .. 45 Bibliography .. .. ... ..... ... ..... ... .. ............................... ........ ... ....... ........... ..... ............. ......... ... .............. .... .... 46 Appendix 1 Survey-Membership of PGYSA ....................................................................................... ... 50 Appendix 2 Survey-Sponsors of PGYSA ............................................................................................... 51 Appendix 3 Relationship between Que stions 7 and 8 of Membership Survey ................................... 52 Appendix 4 Relationship between Questions 3 and 5 of Sponsor Survey .... .. ........ .. .. .. ....................... 53 Appendix 5 School District 57 Enrolment as compared to PGYSA Enrolment.. .................................. 54 Appendix 6 Pro Forma Income Statement.. .. ...... .......... ....................................................................... 55 Appendix 7 Time lines and Proposed Budget Portion of Marketing Plan ........................... ...... .......... 56 Appendix 7 Continued .... ... ..................................................... ................................ ....... ............. ....... ... 57 Appendix 7 Continued ............... ........................................ .. ... .. .. ... .... .. ........ .. ......... ....... ........ ... ....... ..... 58 Appendix 7 Continued .. ...................................... ...... .... .... ........... .... ... .. .... ...... ................................ ...... 59 Appendix 8 Balanced Scorecard ............................................... .... ....... ... .... ............................ ..... ... ... 60 Appendix 8 Continued ...... .................................................................. ...... ..... .............. ......................... 61 Appendix 9 PGYSA Logo ................................................................... ..... ................................ ... .. .. ..... .. 62 (iv) --------- LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Comparison of Large Not-for-profit Organizations with Small Not For Profit Organizations and PGYSA 7 Table 2 Top 10 organized sports of 5- to 14-year-olds in 2005 9 Table 3 Percentage of Revenue Sources- Core Not-for-profit Organizations 13 Table 4 Summary of Membership Survey Responses 29 Table 5 Summary of Sponsorship Survey Responses 30 Table 6 Break Even Analysis 37 Table 7 Promotion Activities 41-42 Table 8 Action Plan 43 (v) ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I dedicate my thesis to my husband, Mike, who not only tolerated but fully supported me throughout this process, his patience and understanding helped me through some long days. I absolutely couldn't have done it with him. My love and thanks also to my daughters, Lorilee and Olivia, whose Starbucks runs made studying easier and to my sister Diane who is the best cheerleader ever! Thank you to my advisor Xin Ge and committee member Rick Tallman for your guidance and helping me keep the project focused. I am grateful to PGYSA, particularly Paula, James, Richard, April and Anita for allowing me the time to pursue this dream and for offering encouragement. Last, I would like to thank my MBA colleagues for your support throughout this program . In particular I appreciate Aureliusz for our synergistic working relationship and for keeping me laughing. (vi) INTRODUCTION Rationale for PGYSA Requiring a Marketing Plan A marketing plan incorporating the elements of sponsorship, social responsibility, communication and fiscal responsibility is required for PGYSA. The primary focus of this paper is on the outdoor program, which provides almost 60% of the revenue for the organization. The goal of designing a marketing plan is to increase membership by 10% and to increase sponsorship by 10% . Volunteers are primarily parents of the players; therefore increasing membership by 10% should lead to a corresponding increase of volunteers. Increasing membership, sponso rship and volunteers will allow for the sustainability of program fees at current rates, keeping soccer affordable for families, while maintaining quality programming. The research question I endeavoured to answer is "Why does Prince George Youth Soccer Association need a marketing plan?" Sub-problems exp lored and addressed by the research performed include: • How can spo nsors hip be increased by I 0% ? • How can membership be increased by 10% ? • How can volunteers be increased by 10% It is my intenti on to achi eve the goal of increasing membership, volunteers and sponso rship by LO% within two years by increas ing the public awareness of PGYSA within the community. 1 PGYSA Programs PGYSA currently structures programs to provide appropriate levels for both the age and ability of the athletes. The outdoor program has three levels. The "House League" is open to all players aged 3 - 18 years who want to play at a recreational level. "Selects" is for athletes aged 13- 18 years and is designed for players who want to train and play games at a competitive level. "Future Stars" (formerly called Development) is for players aged 9 - 12 years who desire additional and more rigorous training than they would receive in the House League. Selects and Future Stars run April through September, while the outdoor house program runs May, June and September. In July and August PGYSA offers Summer Camps for developing players who want to continue to participate in soccer activities. The regular outdoor house program does not run in the summer in response to a membership survey in 2009 where the majority of respondents indicated they did not want structured league play in the summer months. There have been between 2,700 and 3,200 players registered in outdoor soccer over each of the past three years. November through March is the indoor season. This is a training program, not a game league and there are three levels offered for indoor training. "Indoor Development Academy" is for players who want to continue playing throughout the winter and receive training to help develop their technical abilities. Coaches at the Development Academy have a minimum of Community Child Coaching certification or have committed to obtaining it within the current year. The training is held at the PGYSA downtown indoor facility. "Showcase Academy" is for competitive players in Grades 10-12 who want intense training and for those who hope to earn athletic scholarships to college or university for their soccer ability. The training for this program takes place at the Northern Sport Centre and the 2 coaches are the most experienced and have the highest certification. The fees for this program are more expensive than any other programs, due to the cost of the coaches, the training facility, additional assistance from administrative staff with resumes, arrangements for travel to tournaments and other events. It is at the various events that players may be identified by college or university coaches for scholarship opportunities. "Junior Academy" is for players in Grades 7-9. These players aspire to the Showcase Academy and train at a more intense level than the players at the Development Academy. The fees for this program are higher than the Development Academy because of the higher coaching certifications required for coaches in this program and because the training is held at the Northern Sport Centre. The fees are lower than Showcase because the players do not travel to be identified by colleges or universities at this age and the administrative component is also less. There are approximately 500 players registered for indoor programming, with approximately 100 of those players participating in the Showcase and Junior Academies. Description of PGYSA PGYSA is governed by a volunteer Board of Directors elected for two year terms at the Annual General Meeting, made up of an Executive Committee including the President, Vice-President, Treasurer and Volunteer Director, as well as Directors holding portfolios corresponding to programs. 3 The purpose of PGYSA as stated in the Constitution and By-Laws is: l. To organize and promote soccer in Prince George for boys and girls 2. To establish teams and leagues at a cost which is universally affordable 3. To endeavour to deliver a program of comparable quality to anywhere else in British Columbia 4. To strive for the highest standards in skill, fair play, and sportsmanship 5. To act as the focal point for Youth Soccer in Northern British Columbia and promote its development in the region 6. To develop and train referees and coaches to assist in the delivery of a quality soccer program 7. To foster the development and expansion of the North Cariboo Senior Soccer League (NCSSL) and the Prince George Women's Soccer Association (PGWSA) and to further the relationship of the PGYSA with the post secondary institutions to provide a continuing soccer opportunity for graduating youth soccer players. The mission statement guiding the organization and on which the marketing plan is based is " ... to support soccer players, coaches, and referees by providing appropriate programs, a safe environment, and excellent facilities. We embrace the principles of "fair play" in everything we do". The purpose and mission of PGYSA will guide the development of the marketing plan and form the basis for building brand awareness to contribute to the increase in volunteers, sponsors and members. 4 Situational Analysis The situational analysis covers the following key areas: COMPANY ANALYSIS Goals • The current goals as stated in the purpose and mission statement above • To increase participation in PGYSA programming, sponsors and volunteers by 10% Culture • PGYSA is undergoing a shift from being a hi erarchical structure to a flatter, more inclusive configuration. 83 % of the Board of Directors, including the President, has served a term of less than 2 years. The Executive Director was hired 2 years ago and the Technical Director was hired 3 months ago. The res ult is a new perspective with a focus on delivering profess ional services and accountability to the members hip. Historical knowledge is provided by the Past President, who sits o n the Board in an adv isory capacity. There has been a steady decline in enro lment in School District 57 over the past two decades. Between 1996 and 20 10 approximately 6,000 students or a 3 1% decrease in enro lment has occurred. PGYSA has approximately 20% of School District 57's enrolment numbers and will need to monitor whether the anticipated co ntinued dec line in School District 57 enrolment will also affect the PGYSA enrolme nt. Strengths • Adm ini strative/Operational Staff - Executive Director, Program Administrator, Bookkeeper/Administrative Assi stant provide professional services for budgeting, 5 scheduling, volunteer recruitment and retention , financial records, registration, building and field maintenance and conflict resolutions • Professional Technical Staff - Technical Director and Technical Coaching Team. Professional services provided for technical and tactical planning, training sessions, coaching and player development. Program pl anning with Technical Director and Executive Director provides the full scope of knowledge and experience from both operational and technical perspectives • Exce llent facilities- An indoor facility with two small "futsal" sized pitches (fields), storage area, boardroom and office space in a convenient downtown location , plus immaculate outdoor fields all in one location with access to ab undant parking. The small indoor fields mean PGYSA must still rent field space from Northern Sport Centre in the winter months for the Showcase and Juni or Academies. The weather plays an important role in how much field time is avail ab le any given year, since the fields are all grass • Board of Directors ts committed to providing the maximum value possible to the membership PRODUCT & CONSUMER ANALYSIS Outdoor Soccer Programs: • House league- Mini Program 12 & under and Divisional 13 & over. Everyone who registers is welcome • Future Stars - 9- 12 yr. Everyone who registers is welcome • Selects 13 & over. There is a try out process. Only those athletes who have developed the necessary ski ll s and are committed to the team fo r the length of the outdoor season will be se lected 6 Indoor Soccer Programs: • Development 3 - 18 years. Everyone who registers is welcome • Showcase Academy 15 - 18 yr. There is an application process and only those who meet the criteria will be selected • Junior Academy 12- 14 yr. There is an application process and those who display the required attributes will be selected Each program is designed to provide the benefit desired by the target market, see Table 1 below. There is the physical benefit of being active and there is the psychological benefit of being part of a group with the same goals. The customer profile is healthy males and females from the ages of 3-18 years, regardless of social or economic backgrounds. For youth between 3 and 12 years the parents or guardians make the decision for enrolment in soccer. From 13-18 years the teenager is the decision making person, but it is still generally the parent or guardian who pays for the registration. Table 1 CURRENT TARGET MARKET PROGRAM HOUSE-OUTDOOR RECREATION ALICOMPETITIVE RECREATIONAL TARGET MARKET PARENTS AND ALL YOUTH 3-1 8 YR SELECTSOUTDOOR COMPETITIVE PARENTS AND YOUTH 13- 18 YR FUTURE STARSOUTDOOR DEVELOPMENTAL-TOWARDS COMPETITIVE PARENTS AND YOUTH 9-12 YR DEVELOPMENT ACADEMYINDOOR SHOWCASE ACADEMYINDOOR JUNIOR ACADEMYINDOOR COMBINATION OF RECREATIONAL/DEVELOPMENTAL TOWARDS COMPETITIVE COMPETITIVE PARENTS AND ALL YOUTH 3-18 YR COMPETITIVE PARENTS AND YOUTH 16- 18 YR PARENTS AND YOUTH 13-15 YR 7 SUPPLY CHAIN • PGYSA provides operational and technical services directly to membership • Yoursportsplace.com provides PGYSA membership with online regi stration services directly • Soccer Express has a 3 year contract (currently in its second year) to supply equipment and kits Uerseys, socks, shorts, track suits etc.) to PGYSA, which is delivered by PGYSA to its membership • There are numerou s suppliers who can provide online registration or soccer equipment, providing PGYSA with alternatives if the current suppliers cannot meet expectations CURRENT COMPETITORS • Minor Hockey: Youth Hockey is not available year-round in Prince George. There is one full-time staff member September through M ay and they do have an office. Hockey is a popular sport, particularly for males. However, there are frequent sched ule chan ges and it is expensive to participate • School Sports: There are numerous sports offered through schoo ls which compete direct ly with soccer programm ing. Schoo ls can facilitate easy enrolment and ad mini stration is avail able through the office. Facilities are accessible and scheduling is straightforward for schools. The marketing plan was written specifically for PGYSA using the information provided by the Situational Analys is and TOWS to identify areas of constraint and areas of opportunity. 8 Value Provided to the Community The not-for-profit organization exi sts to provide a service with social value (Pinho and Macedo, 2006). PGYSA provides year-round programming for soccer players aged 3- 18 years, which is a valuable service, given that soccer is now the number one sport in Canada for children between the ages of 5 and 14 years. Participation in soccer has increased by 8% over the past 13 years, while participation in almost all other sports has remained static or declined, see Table 1 below (Stati stics Canada, 2009). The benefits derived from physical activity include lower rates of chronic illness, higher body function and lower obesity rates (Thompson, Rehman and Humbert, 2005). Table 2- Top 10 organized sports of 5- tol4-year-olds in 2005 I - I IAll sports 1992 - -- I 2005 % of 5- to 14-year-olds regularly participating in organized sports 57 1 51 * 12 20* 17 12* 12 11 Basketball 6 8 Baseball 13 5* 5 3* 4 2 Karate 2E 2 Skiing, downhill 6 2* Track and Field Athletics 2E 2E Soccer Swimming Hockey ---- Volleyball Gymnastics IEUse with caution ·~ I I * Statistically significant difference from 1992 (p<0.05). Source: Statistics Canada, General Social Survey, 1992 and 2005. 9 In addition to sports and recreation nonprofit organizations, there are many different institutions vying for sponsorship, grants and membership. In 2008, core nonprofit groups which include social service providers, arts groups, sports organizations, religious groups and professional associations made up $35.4 billion of Canada's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The other segment of nonprofit organizations which include universities, colleges and hospitals are not included in the GDP figure because they receive almost three-quarters of their funding from government sources. Table 2 below illustrates the main revenue sources for most core nonprofits (Statistics Canada, 201 0) as compared to PGYSA' s revenue sources. Table 2 Percentage of Revenue Sources- Core Not-for-profit Organizations Revenue Sources Sponsors/Donations From Businesses Membership Fees/Sales-goods, services, programs* Government Investment Income/Miscellaneous/Other Donations From Household Statistics PGYSA Canada-Core Not-for-profit Organizations PGYSA ~ ~ total o/c of tota I % of total /"(:'1 '(:'/11/(:' /"(:'1'(:'/l/1(:' /"(:'1 '(:'/Ill(:' 200R 2008-2009 .flsm I 5.1 78.7 14.5 1.6 0 2009-2010 fisc a I 5.6 79.3 13.4 1.8 0 2.1 62.1 21.0 3.6 11.2 100% Total 100% Source: Statistics Canada, The Daily, December 17, 2010 Satellite account of non-profit institutions and volunteering and PGYSA Income Statement as at September 30, 2010 (fiscal year end for 2009-2010) *PGYSA program registration includes membership in the organization; there is not a separate membership fee. According to Stats Canada, 17.1 % of core non-profits receive revenue from membership fees, while 45% receive revenue from the sale of goods and services 10 PGYSA relies on sponsorship more than twice as much as other nonprofits, as shown in Table 2, which highlights the need for creating a good public image to attract sponsors. The main sponsorship focus has been on the outdoor program, where individual companies sponsor teams at $350.00 each. In exchange for the monetary contribution, the firms get the company name and logo on all the team shirts. This sponsorship opportunity is very successful and most years there is a waiting list of companies who would like to sponsor a team. It is anticipated that sponsorship will increase by 10% once the new marketing plan is implemented. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows: (i) Literature Review which describes the information gained from the books, peerreviewed journals and articles, websites and government reports researched for this project (ii) Methodology section defining the methods of data collection (iii) Results reporting the information provided from the data collection (iv) Analysis and Discussion section analyzing the information provided from the results (v) Recommendations resulting from the analysis and discussion (vi) Conclusion section which provides the researcher's summary. 11 LITERATURE REVIEW Importance of Marlieting Plan for Not-For-Profit Organizations The biggest lack PGYSA faces is a promotion plan for effective communications and increasing the profile of the organization. Currently marketing at PGYSA is done in a reactive manner as events arise. The marketing plan must reflect the strategic plan of the organization as set by the Board of Directors to ensure that the programs being promoted reflect the vision and direction the organization is seeking to reach (Luther, 1992). Messinger (1995) provides some of the analysis that should be performed when considering implementing a marketing plan, such as the break-even analysis to ensure the product is priced correctly for the current year and the pro-forma analysis to project profitability of changes in several variables. Sta.l