Market Analysis:
Inland Port Facility- Northern British Columbia

V. Warren Hall
B.Comm., University of Calgary, 1990
CGA BC I CGA CANADA, 1995

Project Submitted In Partial Fulfillment Of
The Requirements For The Degree Of
Master Of Business Administration

The University Of Northern British Columbia
April2006

© V. Warren Hall, 2006
UNIVERSITY of NORTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA
LIBRARY
Prince George, B.C.

Table of Contents
Executive Summary ......................................................................... 4
1.

2.

1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4

2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4

Introduction ............................................................................. 8

Economic and Trade Context ............. .............. ................................. 8
Importance ofAnalysis ...................................................................... 9
Purpose ofPaper ............................................................................... 9
Scope ofAnalysis .................................................... ......................... 10

Methodology ......................................................................... 12

Identification of Most Valuable Customers .................................... 13
Assessment of Current Market Potential ............................ ............ 16
Freight Forecasts; Future Market Potential ...... ... ..... ... ............. .. .. 16
Data Analysis ............................. .......... ........................................... 17

3.

Literature Review .................................................................. 19

4.

Analysis ................................................................................. 23

4.1

Assessment of Current Market Potential ............... ............ .... ...... ... 23

4.1.1
4.1.2
4.1.3
4.1.4
4.1.5
4.1.6

4.2
4.3

5.

5.1
5.2
5.3
5. 4

Chemicals from Northern British Columbia Region ................................. 23
Fertilizer from Region ................................................................................ 25
Grain from Region ..................................................................................... 27
Forest Products from Region ................. ...... .................. ... ... .... .......... ........ 28
Meat Products from Region ............ ................................... ........................ 29
Summary of Current Market Potential.. ............. ..................... ... ... ........ .... .32

Freight Volume Forecasts ......................................... ...................... 33
Analysis Results I Implications ..... ......................... .......................... 42

Conclusions ........................................................................... 44

Review of Observations ................. .... ................... ..... ...................... 44
Summary ................... ....................................................................... 45
Limitations of the Study ................................................................... 46
Areas for Further Research ............................................................ 48

2

List of Appendices .......................................................................... 50
Appendix A Port I Shipping Background Information ........................... .. 50
Appendix B Contacts ................................................................................ 53
Appendix C Literary Research ............... ........ .... ... ................... .... ............. 56
Appendix D Industry Contacts .................................................................. 58

List of Tables .................................................................................. 60
Table 2-1

Vancouver Port Cargo Statistics ....... ....... ............................ 60

Table 2-2

Western Canadian Chemical Exports ..................... .............. 62

Table 2-3

Western Canadian Grain Exports .................... .............. ... ... 63

Table 2-4

Western Canadian Fertilizer Exports ..... .. ............................ 64

Table 2-5

Western Canadian Forest Products Exports ........................ 65

Table 2-7

Western Canadian Container Exports .................................. 66

Table 2-8

Total Western Canadian Exports by Product ........... .... ........ 67

Table 2-9

Statistics Canada- British Columbia Exports ..................... 68

Table 2-10 Total British Columbia Beef Production .............................. 70
Table 2-11 Total Vancouver Containerized Export Volumes ................. 71
Table 2-12 Total Vancouver Containerized Export Volumes .......... .... ... 74
Table 2-13 Grain Commodity Forecasts ..................... ............................ 75
Table 2-14 Bank of Canada- Commodity Price Index ........... ........ ....... 78

3

Executive Summary
Substantial pressures exist to develop new container ports in British Columbia. Estimating
the potential demand for a new port facility is critical for assessing its potential financial
and economic success. However, it is extremely difficult to assess due to the many issues
that must be considered. The idea of an Inland Port Facility in the Northern British
Columbia Region has become extremely popular. However, development of container port
facilities requires major investments and poses substantial risks to investors.
The key literature used in this study included numerous papers as shown in the
bibliography that explain the requirements of Inland Port Facilities and demand estimation
techniques. In addition, the Western Transportation Advisory Council (WESTAC) is
working on a similar study that is being used by various groups in determining the potential
feasibility of a regional port facility. Much of their information has been reviewed in terms
of current export volumes and projected future export volumes. However, the WESTAC
study includes export volumes from all of Western Canada. This is arguably not feasible in
justifying a Northern British Columbia regional port facility, as Alberta and Saskatchewan
volumes will likely be shipped through a different facility such as Edmonton or Vancouver.
Other primary sources of information included Statistics Canada and BC Statistics, as well
as a number of commodity associations and marketing boards.
The methodology included gathering as much information as possible to provide a
reasonable estimate of potential export volumes. This included making use of all available
National and Provincial statistics, including contacting numerous commodity agencies,
marketing boards, and industry representatives and managers (see Appendix D).

4

The greatest difficulty in completing the project was in accurately estimating the
" regional" volumes of Asian exports as this information is not readily available and does
not exist in any clearly stated formats or reports. The first phase of the methodology
involved the investigation and correlation of information to determine the volumes of the
identified major potential commodities. The second phase of the analysis was to determine
the forecasted future volumes of these regional commodities to be exported to Asian
markets.
The result of the research shows that approximately 160,000 Twenty Foot Equivalent Units
(containerized volumes) are currently being exported to Asian markets from the Northern
British Columbia region. The breakdown between the volumes of the commodities is
shown in Chart 1 below.
Chart 1 - Current Asian Export Volumes

Grain
Forest Products
Pork
Poultry
Beef

Asian
Exports
(TEU's)
15,000
145,000

49
125
9.0
160 ,183

Interestingly, two of the primary commodities identified in the Western Transportation
Advisory Council study are not exported from the Northern BC region. This is extremely
important, as local supporters of the Inland Port Facility have been making use of the
Westac information provided in their analysis. A second very important observation is that
the forest products currently accounts for more than 90% of the total exports from the

5

region. Therefore, the challenge would be to ensure that the facility was economic for
wood industry exporters and in ensuring that the forest industry remams sustainable, at
least until other manufacturing sectors are able to replace the wood export volumes.
Two methodologies are used to forecast the potential Asian exports of major regional
commodities. The first methodology was qualitative in that it involved gathering forecast
data estimates from industry experts . A number of industry experts were contacted and the
data was retrieved through published documents and less formal communications .
The second forecasting methodology was more quantitative in nature and is based on a
trend analysis of historical commodity export statistics related to the region's products
being exported to the Asian markets. The results of the forecast methods are shown in the
following charts. As can be seen from the two charts, the two forecast methods resulted in
total

estimated

Chart 2

volumes with only an
approximately

5%

difference over a 10
year

forecast

Grain
Forest Products
Pork
Poultry
Beef

Forecasts Using Industry Expertise Estimates
Current
Production
Volume
15,000
145,000
992
125
9
161,126

2007
15,759
146,162
1,079
132
9.1
163,142

2010
16,971
147,923
1,224
143
9.2
166,271

2015
19,201
150,906
1,511
164
9.4
171,792

Growth
Estimate
2.50%
0.40%
4.30%
2.77%
0.05%

estimate.
The phase 1 expansion of the Prince Rupert container port will accommodate 500,000
TED's

If an inland

port

facility

successful

Chart 3

is

m

capturing the entire

Grain
Forest Products
Pork
Poultry
Beef

Forecasts Using Trend Analy:sis
Current
Production
Volume
15,000
145,000
992
125
9
161,126

2007
15,821
147,915
1,038
131
9.4
164,914

2010
17,137
152,396
1 '111
140
10.1
170,795

2015
19,579
160,170
1,245
157
11 .3
181,163

Growth
Estimate
2.70%
1.00%
2.30%
2.30%
2.30%

6

local export volumes available, they will be able to fill approximately one third of the total
containers moving westbound through the region. This is very important in determining the
feasibility of the facility and the estimated size requirements of the facility. However, given
that approximately 90% of the volumes are wood related, the long-term risk is quite
substantial unless long term forest company commitments are obtained. There also exists
the very important opportunity for regional entrepreneurs and non-local investing in the
region to take advantage of the increased access to the massive Asian markets.
The results of this paper can be used to assist in determining the potential feasibility and
scope of a North Central British Columbia Inland Port Facility. Obviously such a facility

·

would be very important economically to the region.

:

..

7

1.
1.1

Introduction
Economic and Trade Context

Canada's prosperity depends upon its success in world trade. British Columbia's ports
handle half of Canada' s maritime exports and 85% of the western province's marine
exports. The B.C. port system currently handles approximately $35 billion per year in
trade and contributes approximately $4 billion annually to the Canadian economy, and $3
billion to the economy of British Columbia.
The British Columbia ports will continue to be critical to the economic future of Canada
and British Columbia. China, the province's largest offshore trading partner, accounts for
60% of the growth in world trade. Asian markets offer major growth opportunities for
resource exporters and manufacturers across Western Canada.
B.C. port container traffic demand is expected to quadruple by 2020 and has already lead
to plans for more than $1 .5 billion in terminal developments. Included in these
developments is the expansion of the Prince Rupert Port. The proposed terminal at the Port
of Prince Rupert will add 500,000 TEU's (twenty-foot equivalent units) by mid-2007. CN
is investing $15 million for improving the rail lines from Prince Rupert to accommodate
the increased movements of goods (Ministry of Small Business et. al. ,2005). 1
Based on the increased importance of the Asian markets in terms of global trading of
commodities, there will likely be substantial opportunities for Western Canadian businesses
and entrepreneurs. The ability to take advantage of the increased trade activities and the
increased access to both the Asian markets, and the Asian goods will largely influence the
prosperity of the Western Canadian provinces in the coming years.
1

British Columbia Ports Strategy : Final "March 2005"

8

1.2

Importance of Analysis

Estimating the potential demand for a new or expanded port is critical for assessing its
potential financial and economic success. Development of container port facilities requires
a major investment and poses substantial risks to investors. Given the enormous scale of
investment required and the risk involved, important questions invariably arise about the
financial feasibility of the planned project to the developer and the net economic benefits of
the project to the regions affected (Meifeng Luo et al., 2002) .2 Assessing the potential
demand for container port services is a key element in weighing both private financial
feasibility and net social benefits.
1.3

Purpose of Paper

The purpose of this paper will be to use the information gathered from key related
individuals, organizations and secondary sources of information to estimate the need that
could exist for an Inland Port facility located in the North Central British Columbia region.
The facility would relate directly to the Prince Rupert Port expansion and would act as a
source for regional exports to the Asian markets and potentially lead to further
entrepreneurial activities in the region.
The demand analysis will be based on existing export commodities and will not include
potential growth in regional manufacturing. The likelihood of major private capital
investment to develop a facility based on the possibility of future exports is not defensible.
The facility must be economically viable based on existing export sources. If the data

2

Estimating the Demand for Container Port Services: The Importance of Including Substitute Ports, Meifeng Luo and
Thomas A. Grigalunas, July 31 , 2002

9

supports the need for a facility, the size of the operation can then be based upon existing
and anticipated regional export volumes.
The purpose of this study is not , however , the feasibility of the North Central British
Columbia Inland Port facility . Instead, it is restricted to the potential export volumes from
the region to the Asian needs.

1.4

Scope of Analysis

The scope of the project is restricted to the potential exports associated with a regional
facility. The volume of commodities imported are not likely to economically justify an
inland port facility, which includes a distribution centre, or a multimodal import facility for
inbound goods (Harold C. Western1an, 2005) .3 The market for imported Asian goods is not
significant in Northern British Columbia. Asian imports to the larger Southern British
Columbian markets would logically be routed through the Vancouver Port for obvious cost
and time reasons. Further, it is anticipated that the vast majority of goods received through
the Prince Rupert Port will be bound for the large Eastern Canadian and North Central I
North Eastern United States markets . Therefore, it is not likely to be economically feasible
to delay the transportation of imported goods in Northern British Columbia to offload a
very small portion or to perform distribution functions such as repackaging or reloading
onto other transport.
The needs analysis undertaken in this project is limited to the more likely possibility of
having an Export Facility in the North Central British Columbia region, which would
receive goods from regional manufacturing facilities to be containerized, then loaded onto

3

Harold C. Westerman, P.Eng. , Branch Manager, Moffatt & Nichol, Sept. 27, 2005

10

the rail transport bound for Asian markets. Further, the movement of containers from truck
onto the rail to the Prince Rupert facility could be accommodated.
The completion of this Project has a number of potential benefits including:
•

The demand estimation could, depending on the outcome, assist Initiatives Prince
George in their planned feasibility study of an inland port facility to be located in
Prince George and their pursuit of support for the facility.

•

Depending on the statistical tools chosen, this project could lead to a new demand
analysis model for Inland Port Facilities that are not located in Major Population
Centres.

•

There are a number of potential opportunities for local businesses including:

• The development and operation of the facility could provide a great deal of work
opportunities and assist the regional economy.

• The facility could also lead to new jobs for the community in the areas of Rail
and road transport sector.
•

Increased access to the massive Asian markets could lead businesses in the
region to increase and gain in prosperity driving a new manufacturing sector in
the regional economy.

The scope of this study does not include analysis of the feasibility of the regional inland port
facility. The estimated volume of exports from the region may be used as a tool, or source of
information, in such an analysis but it is beyond the scope of this paper.

11

2.

Methodology

The

export

volume

assessment for

the Inland

Port

Facility involved different

methodological approaches, which partly complemented each other and partly overlapped
in order to validate the quality and consistency of fmdings. The methodology was
developed with the intent of verifying the volume of export commodities from the Northern
British Columbia region, which would be serviced by a North Central British Columbia
Port Facility . The area included in the study as potential commodity export volumes
encompasses North of Prince George to, and including those territory locations exporting
through the Vancouver Port. Also included is the area West to the Ocean but realizing that
those regions closer to Prince Rupert would take advantage of their proximity to truck
goods directly to Prince Rupert for export rather than back to the Prince George region.
The area also encompasses those commodities produced East to the Alberta - British
Columbia border, and South to include 100 Mile House. Further east than the BC- Alberta
border would likely be more efficiently serviced by the Edmonton loading facility, and the
area South of 100 Mile House would be more economically serviced through shipments via
the Vancouver Port facilities. The areas closer to Edmonton and Vancouver are not
included as they have existent modal loading facilities that would make it economically
prohibitive for them to use the proposed inland port facility. In addition, the City of
Edmonton has expressed an interest in expanding their facilities to ensure that they are
capable of distributing product and export loading to accommodate existing and prospective
increases in demand.

12

2.1

Identification of Most Valuable Customers

Five main groups and three sub-groups of commodity exporters have been defined, based
on commodity type , as potentially the main market participants in determining the transport
demand with regards to commodity structure and volumes A very small number of lesser
0

exporters from British Columbia exist but will not materially impact the market analysis
and are unlikely to support the infrastructure requirements of the facility

0

The criteria applied for selecting commodities for determining potential regional export
volumes include:

10 Known , existing manufacturing industries with current and stable business in the
regional market
2

0

0

Identified by Statistics Canada as current container Asian exporters from the
Vancouver Port with export values great than $2 ,000 ,000 per year. These are the
top 25 export commodities

3

0

0

Identified by the Western Transportation Advisory Council as maJor Western
Canadian commodity export volumes

0

Brief descriptions of identified industry types that currently export goods to the Asian
markets include :

10 Chemicals from Region
This includes Chlorine , Diethylene Glycol, Ethylene Dichloride, Ethylene Glycol,
Sodium Hydroxide , Sodium Chlorate, and Styrene Monomer. These products are
produced throughout Western Canada The Canadian Chemical Industry is the third
0

largest of all manufacturing sectors in sales and third in value-added in Canada The
0

13

industry is located mainly in Ontario (51%), Quebec (21 %), Alberta (22%), and British
Columbia (3 %) (Canadian Chemical Producers' Association, 2005). The chemical
industry is Canada's fourth largest exporter of manufactured goods. For the purposes
of this demand analysis, only the regional volumes of chemicals, which are exported to
Asian markets, are to be included.
2. Fertilizers from Region
This includes potash, anhydrous ammonia, phosphate and sulphur solutions, mixed
fertilizer materials and elemental sulphur and sulphate fertilizers & other fertilizers.
There are total Canadian Annual exports of 20 million metric tonnes of fertilizers with
an export value of$ 3.7 billion (Canadian Fertilizer Institute, 2002) .4
3 . Grains from Region
Chart 4 Canadian Grn:in~ons

This includes wheat and durum, barley
and malt, canola, oats, flax, dried peas,
lentils, soybeans. Wheat exports in
2004 were estimated to rebound from

u
20

12
II

9.4 million tons (a 30-year low) to 16.0
million with expanding sales to many

4
0

9 910 0

0 110 1

• Wh oot

0 J 10 ~

D llo rler

traditional markets in Latin
America and Asia and indications that China will return as a major importer of
Canadian wheat (Foreign Agricultural Service, 2004). 5 85 to 90% of the grain crops
4

5

Canadian Fertilizer Institute letter to the Canadian Transportation Agency, September 30, 2002
Grain: World Markets and Trade, Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series, FG 01-04, January 2004

14

grown in BC are grown in the Peace River region. Special varieties have been adapted
for the soil and temperature conditions in the Peace district. There is also some
production in the North Okanogan, around Vanderhoof, around Creston, and in the
Lower Mainland (BC Ministry of Agriculture and Lands, 2005). 6
4. Forest Products from the Region
This includes lumber, plywood and panels, newsprint, pulp, paper and paperboard.
Forestry is the number-one industry in the Northern Interior region, producing more
than one fifth of Canada's softwood lumber each year.
5. Meat Products from the Region
This includes primarily beef, poultry and pork products.

Beef
The total economic contribution of Canada's beef industry is approximately $23 .7
billion. British Columbia represents 5.9% of Canada's beef industry and the total
economic contribution by the beef industry to British Columbia is approximately $1.4
billion (British Columbia Cattlemen's Association, 2005).

Pork
Most pigs in BC are produced near Vancouver. This is to minimize transport costs to
population centres when the hogs are sent to market. 80% of market hogs are produced
in the Fraser Valley. The remainder are produced in the North Okanogan (15%), on
Vancouver Island (5 %) and the rest in the Peace River. About 300,000 market hogs are

6

BC Ministry of Agriculture and Lands- Agri-food Statistical Information, 2005

15

slaughtered a year. 90 % of this pork is bought in BC and the other 10 % is exported.
BC produces about 25 to 30 % of the pork eaten in BC (BC Hog Marketing
Commission, 2005) .

Poultry
British Columbia's poultry industry is comprised of four major sectors: chicken (meat)
growers, the layer (egg) industry, broiler breeders and turkey producers. Other smaller
sectors include breeder pullet growers, layer pullet growers, layer breeders and turkey
breeders. B.C .' s chicken, turkey and eggs are produced primarily in the Fraser
Valley. Production also occurs on Vancouver Island and in the Interior.

2.2

Assessment of Current Market Potential

This section describes the assessment of transport flows originating m the regwn and
destined to the Asian marketplace. The use of trade statistics and communications with
major suppliers limited the data material to a manageable number of sources containing
reliable and consistent indicators of current demand for freight movement.
In order to secure the validity for the market assessment, only major exports commodities

(described in 4 .1 above) were selected ensuring a degree of reliability and stability .
Important variables in the trade statistics, in addition to origin and destination countries,
include the volumes and value of goods traded by commodity categories.

2.3

Freight Forecasts; Future Market Potential

Expectations of growth in external trade in freight volumes are crucial for assessing the
economic viability of the Inland Port Facility. While the analysis of current flows explores
the types of goods, modes of transport, and origins and destinations for freight movement,

16

the flow forecast takes a somewhat broader view. The following four approximations have
been used for projecting the future developments in flow volumes and the scope of
transport markets:
• A summary of existing forecasts of national (aggregate) key indicators which are
regarded as important determinants of growth in external trade, such as projected growth
levels in exports. These indicators are believed to have the largest causal impacts on
growth in international goods trade. These data do not, however, estimate the growth
rates in particular types of goods, on particular origin/destination lanes, nor for
movement by different transport modes. To compensate for the above deficiencies, the
following are also used;
o

Elaboration of political and economic outlooks;

o

The Western Transportation Advisory Council (WESTAC) data gathered regarding
commodity forecasts

o

Statistics Canada, Client Services Division, Government of Canada

o

Ministry

of

Small

Business

and

Economic

Development,

Ministry

of

Transportation, British Columbia Ports Strategy
2.4

Data Analysis

The final stage of the methodology involves the amalgamation and examination of the
results obtained from the above steps. This will involve an analysis of the anticipated
export volumes from the Northern region and will assist in the determination of feasibility
of a port facility. Although the primary goal of this project is the estimate of an export
volume, not the feasibility of an inland port facility, a primary benefit of the projected

17

export volumes will be the use of this estimate in further analysis to determine the
feasibility of the facility in the North Central British Columbia region. Chart 5 shows the
importance of having access to the global economy through ocean transportation.
Chart 5 shows the increasing amount of trade (in Million metric tones) . Accessing the
enormous

Asian

market

could prove very beneficial

Chart 5

Wor:lcl Seaborne Tra(le

Tanker
1..'?.?1. 0C

Dry Sulik

'198.0

Year

79f

Other

'1.037.00

Total
3,704.0t

to the region economically

1990

1.755.00

968

1.285.00

4,008.00

2000

2,"1'15.0(.

1,288.00

2,487.00

5,890.00

as there will be a large

80-90

-0.6%

~

~

0.8%

90-00

i~

~~

6.8%

~~

O.G<\1.
80-00
2.4%
~ ~
So urce: BST Ass•JC i<J tes using clota from UN CTAD. USCOE ~

2. .Jn)
~ o..·

amount of job creation and
increased

manufacturing

C.ompound Annua.l Growth Rates

MARAD

opportunities .

18

3.

Literature Review

The market analysis was conducted using a combination of existing data sources, market
interviews and industry forecasts. These data and a number of industry consultations were
then used to target an extensive campaign of interviews with exporters, producers, carriers,
terminal operators and others regarding existing and potential markets for the Inland Port
Facility .
There are a number of studies that have been reviewed that are moderately related to this
paper. There are studies that tend to deal with specific topics within the paper and these are
utilized to varying degrees as sources of information in the completion of this project.
Likely, the most useful study is that in process by the Western Transportation Advisory
Council (WESTAC). This group is performing a similar study as this paper for the
purposes of identifying the potential export volumes. However, there is a large difference
in scope between the two studies in that WESTAC is working with export volumes of all of
Western Canada. These volumes are much more readily accessible and when used by local
community groups such as Initiatives Prince George, are misleading in the extreme . The
WESTAC numbers include enormous volumes of production and export that would likely
never be economically feasible in being moved through a facility in Northern British
Columbia. Therefore, the information from WESTAC is utilized to some extent in this
paper, but the numbers are refined to just that portion of Asian Exports that realistically
could be included in a regional facility.
This paper is not a continuation of other works but instead the exploration of the potential
economic viability of a regional infrastructure development. The research utilized was

19

dependent on the stage of the development of this paper and included numerous sources
and was extremely comprehensive in order to lead to a demand estimate that was as
accurate as possible , utilizing proven tools and methods. Through the literature review,
written, and telephone surveys, the research was used to assist in determining the market
potential for a Inland Port Facility in the North Central British Columbia region. Both
traditional sources and on-line sources were used to obtain information .
Many associations were contacted and provided information related to production and
export volumes. In addition, in some cases individual companies were contacted to verify
certain information.
The starting point of the study was to identify potential major commodities that would
influence a total export volume from a Northern British Columbia regional facility. The
sources for this information included local politicians, business members in the community,
special groups including Initiatives Prince George and the Northwest Development
Corridor, and the Western Transportation Advisory Council, which is carrying out a
similar project.
The first stage of this project involved gaining a familiarization with various aspects of
ports and shipping terminologies. There is a great deal of information available and this
area of transportation is rather complex. Appendix A shows the most important collection
of information that is required to gain an understanding of the Port Industry. The primary
sources for this information included studies by Luo and Grigalunas (2002), and Dooms
and Macharis (2003). In addition, much information was acquired through reports and

20

discussion with the Vancouver Port , the Prince Rupert Port and the Ministry of
Transportation .
The second major task was to understand the proposed inland port facility and the
perceptions of those individuals and organizations that would be most impacted locally by
the development. Numerous contacts were made through meetings, telephone conversations
and e-mails. Appendix B shows the list of contacts and summarized notes that were taken.
The primary purposes of making these contacts was to:
(i)

identify any opportunities for clarification of scope of the project,

(ii)

make contact with individuals that will be able to provide support throughout the
project and;

(iii) identify other areas of resources that might be available to assist in the project
research ensuring that new information related to the proposed Inland Port
Facility would be accessed.
There has been a great deal of work done in the area of Inland Port facilities and the
studies that were reviewed for applicability to this study are shown in Appendix C.
Locating Inland Port Demand Estimation studies was more difficult and those that do exist
appear to use variables that are largely different from the variables applicable to this
project. However, there are attributes of the studies that are employed in this paper and the
studies assisted in providing detailed background information on requirements and other
aspects of port facilities.
In addition to the studies, statistical tools were employed as part of the analysis in
achieving and ensuring a reasonable degree of accuracy in the potential commodity exports.
Finally, discussions with some potential suppliers to the Asian Market that could take
advantage of a regional facility were done as part of the data collection process.

21

·.

The statistical sources, shown in the List of Tables, used to determine the "potential " for
the inland port facility export volumes included:
~

Canadian Chemical Producers ' Association

~

Canadian Fertilizer Institute

~

Grain : World Markets and Trade, Foreign Agricultural Service

~

Statistics Canada, Client Services Division, Government of Canada

~

Ministry

of

Small

Business

and

Economic

Development,

Ministry

of

Transportation, British Columbia Ports Strategy
~

Canadian Poultry Association

~

Client Manager for Poultry Canada

~

BC Grain Producer's Association

~

Data Services

~

Council of Forest Industries

~

Western Transportation Advisory Council (WESTAC)

~

Environmental and Natural Resource Economics

~

Information Services Department, Vancouver Port Authority

~

Sr. Marketing and Trade Officer, International Team, Agriculture and Agri-Food

BC ST ATS

Canada
~

Controller, Pulp and Paper Operations, Canadian Forest Products Ltd

~

Chicken Farmers of Canada I Les Producteurs de poulet du Canada, 350 Sparks St.,
Suite 1007, Ottawa ON KlR 7S8

The analysis is primarily related to the determination of demand using the past regional
export volumes and potential future volumes .

22

4.

Analysis

4.1

Assessment of Current Market Potential

This section describes the assessment of transport flows originating m the region and
destined to the Asian marketplace The use of trade statistics and communications with
0

major suppliers limited the data material to a manageable number of sources containing
reliable and consistent indicators of current demand for freight movement.
Estimation Tools
The conversion of metric tonnes to TEU' s is necessary to convert the export volumes of
the commodities All export data is provided in weights and or value and therefore the
0

conversion to TEU' s

is necessary to determine the potential export volumes

0

The

Vancouver Port Authority (Ministry of Small Business, 2005) 7 , states that one TEU is
approximately 9.4 tonnes on average including all imports and exports For the purpose of
0

this paper and an anticipated demand analysis, this figure is sufficiently accurate to provide
a reasonable estimation of the regions export volumes in TEU's

0

The process to provide

the export volume estimation is on the basis of an analysis of all collected data to determine
the most accurate estimate amount possible to determine There is currently no statistical
0

source available that provides the exact volumes from the Northern BC region of Asian
exports for the commodities included in the study

4.1.1

0

Chemicals from Northern British Columbia Region

The chemicals under consideration include chlorine, diethylene glycol, ethylene dichloride,
ethylene glycol, sodium hydroxide, sodium chlorate, and styrene monomer There are a
0

7

British Columbia Ports Strategy: Final "March 2005", Co-published by the Ministry of Small Business and Economic
Development and the Ministry of Transportation.

23

number of facts regarding British Columbia Chemicals that can be used to determine the
estimated exports from the region to the Asian Markets. First, the Canadian Chemical
Producer's published production numbers indicate that three percent of the total Canadian
chemical industry is located in British Columbia (Canadian Chemical Producer's
Association, 2005). This provides a level of assurance that there are provincial chemical
production volumes.
In addition, the information from the Vancouver Port Authority indicates that the total
containerized chemicals exported from the Vancouver Port to Asian markets were 1.376
million metric tonnes from December 2004 to November 2005 (Vancouver Port Authority,
2005) 8 • This verifies that there are Canadian chemical exports to the Asian markets.
The next step involved identifying regional chemical producers that may export to the
Asian markets. In fact, there are only two major regional chemical producers- ChernTrade and FMC, both located in the Prince George region. In discussion with the Financial
Controller of Chern-Trade (Kal Rai, 2006) 9 , they do not export any volumes of their
chemicals produced. All of the chemicals are used regionally. The second chemical
company that has regional operations is FMC Chemicals Ltd. In discussions with the
Manager of Sales in their Prince George office, the indication is that they too, strictly
supply regional volumes of chemicals and are not planning to export volumes to the Asian
markets.
Based on the information that neither company exports to the Asian markets or will in the
future, the estimated regional exports of chemicals is nil.
8

Sonya Muller, Reporting Coordinator, Decision Support, Information Services Department, Vancouver Port Authority,
2005
9
Kal Rai, Controller, Chern-Trade, E-mail discussion, March 7th, 2006

24

Interestingly , despite there being no chemicals from the region being exported to the Asian
markets , in the study estimate of the Western Transportation Advisory Council
(WESTAC) , there is a substantial volume of chemical exports included . The WESTAC
data is being used by a number of Prince George groups with an apparent interest in having
an Inland Port Facility . The scope of the WESTAC study includes all of Western Canada,
which truly is impractical in its application to the Northern BC region.

4.1.2

Fertilizer from Region

As discussed, this includes potash, anhydrous ammonia, phosphate and sulphur solutions,
mixed fertilizer materials and elemental sulphur and sulphate fertilizers & other fertilizers.
There are a number of specifics regarding British Columbia Fertilizers that are used to
determine the estimated exports from the region to the Asian Markets.
First, according to the statistics provided from the Vancouver Port Authority, the total
containerized fertilizers exported from the Vancouver Port to the Asian markets was 8 .005
million tonnes from December 2004 to November 2005 (Vancouver Port Authority,
2005) 10 •
As with the chemicals from the region, there are little or no volumes of fertilizers from the
Northern BC region being exported to the Asian markets. As shown in Chart 6, there is a
small amount of Ammonia being produced in Kitimat (Canadian Fertilizer Institute, 2002) 11 •
However, this production would not be included in potential export from a North Central

10

Sonya Muller, Reporting Coordinator, Decision Support, Information Services Department, Vancouver Port Authority,
2005
11
Fertilizer Production Capacity Data, Canada, Canadian Fertilizer Institute, Suite 802, 350 Sparks Street, Ottawa ON KlR
7S 8, 2002

25

...

·

regional facility as the production location is very near to the existing port facility of Prince
Rupert. The movement of the ammonia to an inland port facility would be impractical and
not economically feasible.
r r

r r~

non :i

:n o~

Chart 6- Canadian Ammonia Production

C.1mcJanFtfilltmr lm111Uia

Ammonia
Cc•mpany

Locatir)n

.4grium

C arseland, Alberta

535

.4grium

Forl Saskatchewan. Alberta

465

Agrium

Joffre. .l\loorta

450

Th ous:Jnd Metric Tonno?s Mat.;;rial
Annum

.l\grium

Red;;ater..Alberta

Canadian Fertilizers Limited

l•.·ledicine Hat. Alberta

1.000

2GO

Pacific Ammonia

Kitim at. British Columbia

Saskferco Prcducis Inc.

B.-;.lle Plaine. Saskatchewan

Sherritt lnt;;;mational

Fart Sa.skatch.-.·.-,•an, .Alberta

155

Sim pbt Canada Limited

Brandon, r•la nito ba

425

Terra N ~roo n

C ourtri9ht. Ontario

~r

TOTAL CANADA

In addition, in discussions with the office of the BC Ministry of Agriculture and Land, in
Northern BC, there are no fertilizer manufacturers in the Peace region that would export to
the Asian markets. All fertilizers would be for regional use only .
Again, fertilizers were included in my list of potential major export commodities as they
were identified and included in the study estimate of the Western Transportation Advisory
Council (WESTAC). In fact the WESTAC study identified 6.2 million metric tones of
potential fertilizer export volume. Again, fertilizers are included within the scope of the
WEST AC study as their information includes all of Western Canada export volumes but it
is obviously not practical in its applicability to the potential volumes of an inland port
facility in the Northern BC region .

26

4.1.3

Grain from Region

This includes wheat and durum, barley and malt, canola, oats, flax , dried peas, lentils, and
forage seeds.
As 85 to 90% of these grain crops grown in BC are grown in the Peace River region, the
office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Land in Northern BC was contacted to identify
the production and export volumes. Chart 7 indicates the results of the discussions and the
volumes related to the Peace district (BC Ministry of Agriculture and Lands, 2005).' 2

Chart 7- Peace River Grain -Asian Exports
Wheat
Barley
Canola
Oats
Forage Seeds

Acres
90.000
80,000
80 ,000
60,000
50 ,000

Bushels I
lbs I Acre
Acre
45
50
30
66
400

Bushels
4,050,000
4,000 ,000
2,400 ,000
3,960,000

lbs

20 ,000,000

tonnes
36.7
45.9
44.1
64.8

Production
110,354
87 ,146
54,422
61 ,111
9,091

Export
75%
5%
90%
10%
5%

Ministry of Agriculture and Land in Northern BC., Dawson Creek, 1201 103rd Avenue, Dawson Creek BC

Total Asian
Exports
82 ,766
4,357
48,980
6,111
455
142,668

As per the Vancouver Port Authority reports, the total containerized fertilizers exported
from the Vancouver Port to Asian markets was 5. 6 million metric tonnes from December
2004 to November 2005 (Vancouver Port Authority, 2005) 13 • There is very little regional
agricultural production outside of the Peace area and therefore, from the Peace District
analysis chart above, the total estimated regional Asian exports in tonnes is 142,668. The
conversion to TEU' sis 142,668 I 9.4 ~ 15,000. Note that the remaining volume of
exports, confirmed by the office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Land in Northern BC ,
is related to large Alberta and Saskatchewan export volumes.
12
13

BC Ministry of Agriculture and Lands- Agri-food Statistical Information, 2005
Sonya Muller, Reporting Coordinator, Decision Support, Information Services Department, Vancouver Port Authority,
2005

27

4.1.4

Forest Products from Region

This includes lumber, plywood and panels, newsprint, pulp, paper and paperboard.
Forestry is the number-one industry in the Northern Interior region, producing more than
one fifth of Canada's softwood lumber each year.
As per the Vancouver Port, the total containerized Forest Products exported from the
Vancouver Port to Asian markets was 5.7 million tonnes from December 2004 to
November 2005 (Vancouver Port Authority, 2005) 14 •
According to BC Statistics, Ministry of Labour and Citizen's Services, the total BC
originating exports of forest products to the Asian markets is 3 .424 million tones annually
(BC Statistics, 2005) .15
In discussions with Senior Accounting and Shipping Management in Canfor, they indicated
that they currently ship approximately 42,000 tonnes of Pulp to Asian markets. They also
ship plywood and 2x4's of widely varying amounts based on demand and prices. In
addition, Cariboo Pulp of Quesnel sells half of their production volume to the Asian
markets, which equates to approximately 200,000 tonnes annually.
The Council of Forest Industries have indicated that the Northern Region of British
Columbia outputs over 40% of BC 's annual softwood lumber production (COFI, 2004) .16
Based on all of this information, the estimated total regional Asian exports in tonnes is 40%
of3.424 million tonnes, which is 1.37 million tonnes. The conversion to TED's is 1.37
million I 9.4 -145,000 TEU 's. This is a fairly optimistic but fairly realistic Asian export
volume. The amount of forest products exported to the Asian markets is largely influenced
14

ibid
BC Statistics, Ministry of Labour and Citizen's Services, 2005
16
Council afForest Industries, 2004
15

28

by demand and prices. It is also somewhat influenced by the current agreements and tariffs
facing Canadian companies from the US Government.

4.1.5

Meat Products from Region

This includes primarily beef, poultry and pork products. The total containerized Meat
Products exported from the Vancouver Port to Asian markets was 366,000 tonnes from
December 2004 to November 2005 (Vancouver Port Authority, 2005). 17 BC Statistics,
Ministry of Labour and Citizen' s Services, indicates the total BC originating exports of
meat products to the Asian markets are 24,009 tonnes annually (BC Statistics, 2005). 18
Beef
British Columbia represents 5.9% of Canada's beef industry. From Chart 8 shown below,
it can be seen that 42% of beef in British Columbia is from the Northern Region.

!

i Cariboo
!Central
!Peace
' Tota l for BC

!

57,498
43,747
61 ,087
279,927*

i 20.54

! 15 .63

!21 .82

! 100

72 ,917,000
55,486,500
77,461 ,000
f'S 355 million**

i 287 ,210,820
!218 ,554,290
! 305, 109,060
i $ 1.4 billion***

.. Source: BC Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Fisheries & Statistics Canada

17

Sonya Muller, Reporting Coordinator, Decision Support, Information Services Department, Vancouver Port Authority,
2005
18
BC Statistics, Ministry of Labour and Citizen's Services, 2005

29

Chart 9 - BC Meat Exports to Asia

BC Origin Exports of Meat Products to Asia, 2005
Commodity

Value- Cdn ~

Quantitll {kg}

Tonnes

Beef, pork and poultry meat, unprocessed - kilograms
Beef - kilograms
Poultry - kilograms
Pork - kilograms

31 ,709 ,426
242 ,603
11,915,643
19,551 ,180

22 ,560,222
189,433
13,046,089
9,324 ,700

22,560
189
13,046
9,325

TEU's
2,400
20
1,388
992

Produced by: BC STATS- Ministry of Labour & Citizens' Services
For Inquiries phone: 387-0376 Dan Schrier
Source: Statistics Canada

Chart 10

Bt:t•f mtd CtttUt £xpur1 - 2004

Given that the total Asian exports of Beef is 20

'1 UIIOU ~

:

~ 111111:lO 1:9)

r.l £>xico
19%

TEU ' sand 42% of beef in BC is produced in the
Northern region, a reasonable estimate of exports
that could occur through a regional inland port
facility is 9 TEU' s.

Pork
Most pigs in BC are produced near Vancouver to minimize transport costs to population
centres when the hogs are sent to market. Eighty percent of BC market hogs are produced
in the Fraser Valley. Only five percent of pigs in BC are produced in the North Central
Region, all in the Peace River region.

Chart 11

BC Origin Exports of Meat Products to Asia, 2005
Commodity

Value- Cdn ~

Quanti!ll {kg}

Tonnes

Beef, pork and poultry meat, unprocessed - kilograms
Beef - kilograms
Poultry- kilograms
Pork- kilograms

31 ,709,426
242,603
11,915,643
19,551,180

22,560,222
189,433
13,046,089
9,324,700

22,560
189
13,046
9,325

TEU's
2,400
20
1,388
992

Produced by: BC STATS- Ministry of Labour & Citizens' Services
For Inquiries phone:
~
Dan Schrier ,
Source: Statistics Canada

30

Chart 11 shows the total BC originating exports of Pork products to the Asian markets are
9,325 tonnes annually ((BC Statistics, 2005). 19 Of this volume, only 5% are from the
proposed region. Therefore, the conversion to TEU' sis 9,325 x 5% I 9.4 ~ 49 TEU 's.

Poultry

BC has over 302 commercial chicken producers who produce over 72 million chickens
weighing a total of 100 million kilograms (after evisceration). A very small portion of
B.C.' s chicken, turkey and eggs are produced outside Fraser Valley and Vancouver
Island. Over 80% of the production of chickens is located in the Fraser Valley while 10%
is produced on Vancouver Island and 9% in the Interior.
Chart 12

•.

BC Origin Exports of Meat Products to Asia, 2005
Commodity

Value - Cdn ~ ·

ri i~ {kg}

Tonnes

Beef, pork and poultry meat, unprocessed - kilograms
Beef - kilograms
Poultry- kilograms
Pork- kilograms

31 ,709,426
242,603
11,915,643
19,551 ,180

22,560,222
189,433
13,046,089
9,324,700

22,560
189
13,046
9,325

TEU's
2,400
20
1,388
992

Produced by: BC STATS- Ministry of Labour & Citizens' Services
For Inquiries phone: 387-0376 Dan Schrier
Source: Statistics Canada

19

.•

.

BC Stats, Ministry of Labour and Citizen ' s Services

31

Assuming that the interior chicken production is included in the region defined within the
realm of the regional port facility,
Chart 13

the Poultry export calculations are
as shown in Chart 13 .

4.1.6

BC Exports to Asian Markets
Ann ua l Poultry Exports (TEU 's)

1, 388

Interior Production Percentage

9.0%

Interior Poultry Exports (TEU 's)

125

Summary of Current Market Potential

As can be seen from the analysis , the volume of current exports to the Asian markets from
the region is estimated using the available resources . The estimated volumes are expected
to provide a reasonable degree of accuracy, which is
not available through any other sources . Based on the
analysis of the major identified potential industries
that could support a northern region inland port

facility, the following Asian export results were
obtained.

Chart 14 - Summary
of Export
Commodities
Asian
Chemicals
Fertilizers
Grain
Forest Products
Meat Products
Pork
Poultry
Beef

Exports
(TEU 's)

15,000
145,000

992
125
9

160,183

As can be seen, the volume of Chemicals and Fertilizers are non-existent. The forest
products, as expected is the largest volume. The grain exports are fairly substantial and
meat products are substantially less.

32

4.2

Freight Volume Forecasts

There are a number of methods of estimating future freight volume exports from the
northern region of British Columbia to the Asian market. In addition , there are a number of
factors that will materially impact the forecasts . The major influencers of regional exports
include :
•

Asian demand for BC 's forestry products will enormously influence the future export
volumes . Forestry represents over 90 % of the current exports to the Asian market
from the region.

•

The continue supply of forestry products will be a major influencer of future exports.
With the questionable future supply of wood in the region due to the beetle
infestation , there is some question of what volume of fibre will be available in the
region in the future.

•

The ability of entrepreneurs to take advantage of the facility to access the massive
Asian markets will be a major influencer of the future export volumes.

4.2.1

Forecast Volumes Methodology 1- Industry Estimates

The Western Transportation Advisory Council made contact with a sample of major
western Canadian corporations in the production of commodities identified . The purpose
was to identify current levels of production and exports to Asian markets. In addition, the
organizations provided estimated growths in the export of their commodities . For each of
the commodities identified above that are applicable to the northern region, the following
estimates of growth are provided.

33

Grain Products Forecast
The following chart was provided to the Western Transportation Advisory Council by Lach
Coburn: Regional Manager, Commodity Marketing Division, Cargill Ltd. 20 As can be seen
by Chart 15 , the westbound volumes , which includes the Asian exports from the Western
markets are anticipated to grow at approximately 2.5% per year.

Chart 15- WESTAC Grain Forecasts

_

~

n

:i

\Vcsthound

r~n s

Total
:1>;::. Annual <iron-tit
Rut<: · .'.!".,

26.37

20 10
2015

According to Mr. Coburn, the major influencers of this forecast include:
•

The continued growth of the world ' s population.

•

There are still 1.2 billion people who are not able to access sufficient food volumes.

•

People desire more food , more variety, and generally are able to pay more.

•

Production, historically in Western Canada has never exceeded consumption by
more that 4%.

20

Lach Coburn, Cargill Limited, Westac Conference, Vancouver, BC, December 7'h, 2005

34

Based on the expertise of the industry representative, an estimated growth in demand for
grain products from the Northern BC region can be applied. This estimated increase of
2.5 % is readonable for comparative purposes to be applied to the needs analysis of a North
Central Inland Port Facility.

Forest Products Forecast
Csaba Hajdu, principle of Paprika Consulting Inc. indicates that the forecast drivers of
forestry products are:
•

Monetary -especially important is the exchange rates between trading countries

•

Political, Legal, Negotiated- includes tariffs , freeness of trade , allowable cuts,
stumpage rates, land claims and forest Practices Codes .

•

Environmental- includes Old Growth Set-Asides, Certification and Mountain Pine
Beetle Infestation.

•

Economic - includes production related costs such as transportation, labour, wood
retrieval costs, etc .

Chart 16- WESTAC Forest Products Forecasts
<<

... ~

~

Total For"S't Pro ducts Shipme nts (million me/fie ronncs)

The following forecasts of forest
shipments are provided by the
Western Regional Advisory
Council, taken from industry
experts, including Mr. Csaba
Hajdu.

v......

WL'ithoun tl

Sout hbound

EMtbound

Total

2000

11.01

13.55

9.48

34{14

1004

!0.93

13.50

16.45

-10.89

1005

10.51

15AJ

17.89

43.84

2006

10.74

16.43

19. 18

46.48

1007

I<UIO

173.<:

1927

47.42

2(1()[1

11.06

i 7.79

1'l.97

-1891

200'1

11.27

18.53

20.65

:i0.48

2010

ll.H

lfl.i6

21.03

51.13

1!.42

19.42

21.94

52 .78

~ ~

J .4%

1.7%

Lc3%

C.:Ct"='lh Ra-tP

20l.il 20U-:

35

Meat Products Forecast

The following information was provided for long term meat forecasting. There were a
number of sources for the estimated growth of each meat commodity.

A number of associations and representatives of the Beef industry were contacted to
determine a reasonable forecast estimate of regional beef exports to the Asian market.
Included in these associations were the National Farm Products Council and the British
Columbia Cattlemen's Association. Based on communications with these groups, a forecast
estimate was discussed and totaled only 0.47% growth.

A number of associations and representatives of the Pork industry were also contacted to
detem1ine a reasonable forecast estimate of regional pork exports to the Asian market.
Included in these associations were the National Farm Products Council and the British
Columbia Hog Commission. The BC Hog Commission provided a forecast for BC Pork,
which was supported by the National Farm Products Council. The estimated increase in
Pork estimates on average is 4.03%.
Poultry

A number of associations and representatives of the BC Poultry industry were also contacted
to determine a reasonable forecast estimate of regional poultry exports to the Asian market.
Included in the associations contacted were the British Columbia Chicken Marketing Board,
BC Egg Producers, The National Farm Products Council, the Chicken Farmers of Canada
and the Canadian Poultry Association. The estimated increase in regional Poultry estimates
to Asian markets based on these contacts is 2.77%.

36

A summary of the meat products forecast based on communications with experts in the
various meat commodity groups is shown in Chart 17:
Chart 17 -Meat Products Forecast Summary
Beef

6450
6420
30
0.47%

Pork

5675
5455
220
4.03%

Poult!Y

8685
8451
234
2.77%

Forecast Volumes Methodology 2 - Trend Analysis
The second method of forecasting that will be used to estimate potential future demand for
an Inland Port Facility in the Northern BC Region , will be based on the trends of the past
several years . The number of past years to be used will be based on available data.
Grain Products Forecast
The following information is taken from Statistics Canada and represents the British
Columbia Grain exports to all Asian markets. The information is shown in thousands of
Canadian Dollars. From Table 2-14, the values have been adjusted by the annual
Commodity Price Indices .

ASEAN (Total)
Source of data: Statistics Canada
Report Date: 10-Mar-2006

37

The following chart displays the past 10 years of BC Exports to Asian markets and the
Chart 19- BC Grain Exports- 10 Years

kgs

6,000 - - . - - - . , . . . - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - , - - - - - .
5,000 - - j - - -4,000

- - - - - - - - -- -- - - - - - -----1

~

::::::::~~

3.ooo
2,000

:~~~::: ::::: ~ :: ~ ~
~

~

1,000 + - - - - - - - - - - - - - ----->.rf--- - - - - - - - 1

0 +-- -- , - - - - , - - - - , - - - - ,- - - -, -- -- , - - - -, -- - - , - -- --.----1
1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

trend line indicates an average increase per year of 2 .7% per year compounded over the
period. This is the trend forecast increase for Grain for the purposes of this report. For
comparison purposes, the industry experts from 5 .2 .1 estimate an increase of 2 .5% . This
implies some consistency and possibly a result of the more regionality of the data in this
trend forecast. In addition, despite the significant variance over the past ten years in the
value of the exports, the most recent years have begun to show a degree of consistency
which implies a higher level of credibility in the data than would otherwise be reasonable to
assume.

Forest Products Forecast
Chart 20 - Statistics Canada Historical Forest Products Exports to Asia
1996

ASEAN
(Total)

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

210,983 177,843 174,469 232l797l 386,581

Source of data: Statistics Canada
Report Date: 10-Mar-2006

38

The following chart displays the past 10 years of BC Exports to Asian markets and the

Chart 21 -BC Forest Products Exports- 10 Years

kgs

400,000 - , - - - - - - - · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - .
350,000 - 1 - - - - - - - - - - + - + - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1
300,000 - 1 - - - - - - - - - 1 - - - - \ - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1

250.000
200,000
150,000

~~~~~~~~~ ~~ sr : : r o:i ~

~

:::

r

~

r

r

r

r

r

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

trend line indicates an average increase per year of 1.0% per year over the period. This is
the trend forecast increase for Forest Products for the purposes of this report. For
comparison purposes, the industry experts from 5.2.1 estimate an increase of0.4%. Again,
this implies some degree of consistency. The likely reason for the more conservative longterm forecast by industry experts is likely related to the Pine Beetle issue and possibly the
desire to move more aggressively into U.S. markets with the anticipated settlement of the
Softwood Lumber Agreement.

Meat Products Forecast
Chart 22- Statistics Canada Historical Meat Exports to Asia
1996
ASEAN
(Total)

571

1997

J 1998

1 319

1,377

J 2004

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

3233

1,910

3 762

5,338

3306
'

Source of data: Statistics Canada
Report Date: 10-Mar-2006

6,804

2005

J

4,25-n

39

The follo wing chart displays the past 10 years of BC Exports to Asian markets and the
Chart 23- BC Meat Product Exports- 10 Years

kgs
7000 ~

~
~

5000

~~

4000

r
~~

2000
1000

~~

~

~~

~

~

~

~

~~

~

~

~r

~

~~

~

0 +-----,-----,------,-----,-----,-----,-----,------.-----,-----4

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

trend line indicates an average increase per year of 22.4% per year over the period. This is
the trend forecast increase for Meat Products for the purposes of this report . The meat
products historically have been grouped for statistical export purposes. For comparison
purposes, the industry experts from 5.2 .1 estimate increases for each of the subcategories
of Pork, Beef and Poultry in the range of 0.4% to 4.0%. Unfortunately, there exists a
significant variance that appears related to the large increases in current years . The large
difference in the results obtained from the Statistics Canada data could also be related to the
defining of the three commodity types and their numerous classifications and subclassifications. For this reason, a further trend analysis will be done using information
provided by BC STATISTICS - Ministry of Labour & Citizens' Services using more
current statistics and volumes instead of monetary values.

40

Chart 24 - BC Canada Historical Grain Exports to Asia
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

35,571 ,182

33,984,904

47846684

19,360,036

48018226

The following chart displays the past 5 years of BC Exports in Kilograms , according to BC

Kgs

Chart 25- BC Meat Product Exports - 5 Years

50,000,000

)\

46,000,000
42,000,000
38,000,000
34,000,000

..

./

/

/

/\

I

\Y = ~

\

30,000,000
26,000,000

\

n: - u.Uiffr

\

\ I

v

22,000,000
18,000,000

2001

2002

2003

'

3E-tp_7 _

2004

I

I

2005

Statistics, to Asian markets and the trend line indicates an average increase per year of
2.3% per year over the period. This is the trend forecast increase for Meat Products for the
purposes of this report. For comparison purposes, the industry experts from 5 .2.1 estimate
increases for each of the subcategories of Pork, Beef and Poultry in the range of 0.4% to
4.0%. This appears to be much more reliable than the ten year data provided by the values
reported in Statistics Canada.

41

Analysis Results I Implications

4.3

There are two series of results for analysis including the current North Central Regional
production of the defined commodities and the forecasted volumes of each of the
commodities.
The current production volumes in Twenty Foot Equivalent Units are shown in the
following Summary charts.
Chart 26 - Current Regional Production Volumes
Chemicals

0

Fertilizers

0

Grain
15,000

Forest
Products
145,000

Pork

49

Meat Products
Poultry
125

Beef
9

Chart 27 - Current Commoditv Exnorts to Asian Markets
o

As mentioned in the

Meat
Products

o Grain

analysis section, the
actual volumes of
fertilizers and

•

Forest
Products

Chemicals that are
exported from British Columbia to Asian markets as reported by the Western
Transportation Advisory Council, are not produced in the North Central region of British
Columbia. Further, obviously and not unexpectedly forest products make up over 90% of
the volumes currently produced that are potential containerized volumes for an inland port
facility. Grain products from the Peace River and North central regions of the province are

42

also fairly important and meat products are currently fairly insignificant in contribution to
the potential supply of export commodities.
The following charts show the results of adding the forecasted volumes provided from the
analysis to the existing regional commodity production.

Chart 28 - Forecasts Using Industry Expertise Estimates

Grain
Forest Products
Pork
Poultry
Beef

Current
Production
Volume
15,000
145,000
49
125
9.0
160,183

2007
15,759
146,162
53
132
9.1
162,115

2010
16,971
147,923
60
143
9.2
165,107

2015
19,201
150,906
75
164
9.4
170,355

Growth
Estimate
2.50%
0.40%
4.30%
2.77%
0.05%

As can be seen, there is some degree of difference between the two forecast methods in
terms of total forecast volumes. The variance is only 5.5% over the 10 year forecast, and is
entirely attributable to the difference in forestry export products, as other commodities are
approximately offsetting . This difference associated with the forestry commodities and the
growth estimate difference is only 0 .5 %.

Chart 29 - Forecasts Using Trend Analysis

Grain
Forest Products
Pork
Poultry
Beef

Current
Production
Volume
15,000
145,000
49
125
9.0
160,183

2007
15,821
147,915
51
131
9.4
163,928

2010
17,137
152,396
55
140
10.1
169,738

2015
19,579
160,170
62
157
11 .3
179,979

Growth
Estimate
2.70%
1.00%
2.30%
2.30%
2.30%

43

5.

Conclusions

5.1

Review of Observations

.

',

The purpose of this study was to determine the regional commodity volumes that could
potentially be transported to the Asian market through a North Central British Columbia
Inland Port Facility. The purpose did not include a determination of the viability or
feasibility of a North Central British Columbia Inland Port Facility.
The results of this data analysis indicate that approximately 160,000 Twenty Foot
Equivalent Unit (TEU) container loads of commodities are currently available in the North
Central British Columbia region for Asian export. Further, a forecasted increase of 10,000
to 20,000 TEU' s will be available for Asian export by 2015. The initial capacity of the
Prince Rupert Container Facility is estimated at 500,000 TEU' s , to be expanded to
approximately 2,000,000 TEU's during the second phase of development .
The implication of this study indicates that there is the potential for approximately one third
of the phase 1 containers to be filled in the out-bound direction. Again, as suggested, this is
not to imply a feasibility of the Inland Port Facility, only an estimated potential export
volume.
In addition, lesser export volumes have not been included from regionally produced, Asian
export commodities. In looking at the commodities that are containerized and are moved
through the BC Ports to the Asian markets however, there are no other regionally produced
commodities that in 2005 exceeded $2 million in export value per year (Statistics Canada,
2005).

44

..·
"'
,;

5.2

Summary

Based on the observations, analysis and data, there are a number of very interesting and
important results. As the preliminary commodity choices were made based on prior
research and export volume statistics, it was important to understand that the regional
export volumes, those that could be attributed to a North Central British Columbia Inland
Port Facility, are dissimilar to the broader western Canadian export volumes provided
through the Westac studies. This is especially important as a number of those groups
promoting the feasibility of the inland port facility are using the broader scope of data as
justification. Major examples of this in my research include both chemicals and fertilizers.
Interestingly, there are no chemicals, and no fertilizers from the region being exported to
the Asian markets that would be feasibly routed through a regional facility. This is of
particular interest as these commodities are included in the study estimate of the Western
Transportation Advisory Council (WESTAC), which is the data that appears to be being
used by a number of Prince George groups with an interest in the development an Inland
Port Facility. The scope of the WESTAC study includes all of Western Canada, which
truly is impractical in its application to the Northern BC region. Westac makes no
representations regarding this application, it is only noted that the Western Canadian data
could be misapplied locally.

45

5.3

Limitations of the Study

There are two main limitations to the information provided through the study of the potential
commodity containerized export volumes from the Northern BC region to Asian markets.
First, the data availability is very sparse in that there is no single source to determine regional
export commodity productions and export volumes. The information is tracked by total
export volumes from British Columbia, however this information includes such items as
Grains and Livestock from Alberta, Saskatchewan and even Manitoba. This information was
available through both Statistics Canada and the Vancouver Port Authority. The details of
regional commodities being exported to Asian markets was available provincially through
BC statistics with some limitations. Again, the volumes and or values were not available
regionally to estimate regional volumes, communication was required between experts in the
various commodity industries including marketing boards and associations. The net result is
that there is only a reasonable degree of accuracy in the estimated volumes. Attempts were
made to verify the accuracy of the estimates by correlating information between different
expert groups and published statistics. In addition, estimates were verified by determining
which areas in British Columbia are producing the different commodities. This lack of clear
data availability dramatically increased the difficulty of the study. The end result however, is
an estimated supportable potential export volumes that could be directed through an inland
port facility. The limitation involves the fact that the accuracy is not one hundred percent.
However, with annual production variations and changes in Asian demand, any data would
be subject to inaccuracies over any period of time.
The second significant limitation of the study is related to which industries would be induced
to make use of the inland port facility. It was the purpose of this study to estimate potential

46

export volumes. There is no attempt to claim that the volumes would exist for the facility.
The decision for organizations to direct their commodities through the inland port facility
would likely be nearly entirely economic. Therefore, for the actual volumes to be directed
through the facility, it would be based on the total transportation cost and would have to be a
maximum of what currently exists and likely the costs would have to be a reduction to induce
the movement of the volumes to counter the risk that the organizations would face in dealing
with a new transportation system. Related to this limitation is the fairly low volumes of
potential exports, both that currently exist and those that may be enticed to start operations
based on the construction of the port facility. The facility size is not likely to ever be driven
by the import volumes and the import volumes are anticipated to grow extremely large with
continued demand.

47

5.4

Areas for Further Research

There are a number of areas for relevant further research regarding the proposed inland port
facility in Northern British Columbia. First, there would likely be a number of new export
opportunities once the port facility was operational. By reviewing other Inland Port facilities
in the world, it may be determined what types of business opportunities might exist. Further,
if this study was completed by a regional government, they could better plan for and assist in
the success of the facility. The government could provide incentives to motivate companies
to invest and they could also form partnerships to encourage opportunities for development
of the region. These new developments will become increasingly important as the forest
industry struggles with it's major issues including the lost harvestable fibre related to the
Pine Beetle.
A second area for further research is in the defining of the most effective and efficient facility
type and size. As mentioned in the introduction of the scope ofthis study, there are very
limited, if non-existent import opportunities and therefore the facility would have to be
constructed based entirely on export opportunities. The facility would have to have input and
cooperation from large forestry companies such as Canfor to ensure that the immediate
volumes of forest products are captured through the inland port facility. In addition, this
paper can be a valuable resource to build upon in that the potential existing and future
regionally developed commodities are known with some degree of certainty.
A final area that would be important research is in defining available funding sources for the
inland port facility development and the addition of new manufacturing facilities that could
be very important to the future economic success of the regions, as well as the success of the
Port Facility. For example, there are a number potential funding sources including Northern

48

Development Initiatives, Community Futures, etc. The research could involve working with
these groups to focus marketing efforts towards the entrepreneurs and the existing businesses
that have an interest in the areas of manufacturing where the region may have success in
exporting to the Asian markets.

49

List of Appendices
Appendix A

Port I Shipping Background Information

•

Inland ports are sites away from traditional borders where international trade is processed
and value-added services are provided.

•

Growth in the global economy over the last decade, incorporating new manufacturing and
agricultural production techniques and markets, has increased the demand for efficient
transportation service. This demand is a result of locating manufacturing worldwide in an
effort to reduce labor cost and efficiently place distribution centers. In an effort to
become globally competitive, shippers have begun to focus attention on streamlining
production and distribution. The management of the streamlining process has been
termed supply chain management.

•

A key facet of the supply chain concept important for transportation planners and policy
makers to recognize is that transportation capabilities can be "a source of competitive
advantage" (Morash 1999, p. 395) for companies. The two most important emphases in
supply chain management are the minimization of transportation cost and the reduction of
inventory.

•

It is apparent that global supply chains are increasingly important for successful business
operations and the reduction of"transportation-related waste that can add cost but no
value" (Morash 1999, p. 396).

•

As the private sector becomes more focused on globalization and efficient supply chains,
inland ports may become more important.

•

Inland ports may also promote more efficient multi-modal corridors.

•

Inland ports appear to offer a number of attractive attributes to shippers and may
complement the transportation corridors they serve by raising service levels and lowering
total costs.

•

Inland ports provide an opportunity to enhance corridor investments because of the
capability to balance truckloads on highway, air, rail, or water modes.

•

Inland ports have the capability to create local employment, enhance corridor
efficiencies, and reduce costs-both private and social- at border points of entry.

•

Inland ports can provide the means to eliminate some "transportation-related wastes"
associated with inefficient supply chains. Provision of combinations of modes at inland
ports can potentially provide opportunities to eliminate these inefficiencies.

•

Additional opportunities can occur when value-added services are all commonly located
at an inland port.

•

An inland port can also provide "a shared location for partners" (Robinson 1999) that
want to improve the efficiency of their supply chains.
50

•

An inland port can remove some link inefficiencies by focusing on secondary activities
not directly related to production. At inland ports, transportation capabilities in the form
of direct interstate highway connections, intermodal rail facilities, or air cargo operations
can be building blocks for businesses looking for a competitive advantage (Morash
1999). The provision of all modes allows businesses to choose the best alternative for
their needs.

•

Standard shipping containers are specified by the International Standards Organization as
20 feet long by 8.5 feet square. These are the standard unit for measuring container
throughput-one such standard container is one twenty-foot equivalent unit or one TEU.

•

Prince Rupert Phase 1, already under construction, will cost $170 million and provide a
capacity for 500,000 TEU's (20-foot containers, or equivalents).

•

Phase 2 will cost roughly twice that, and will quadruple the capacity. That means as
many as 500 short-term jobs, and perhaps that many long-term ones - plus spin-offs -down the line.

•

The revival, however, is based on national, not regional, needs. It's to stock the shelves of
Wal-Marts and Home Depots and other retailers in communities across the continent, and
to ship out all kinds of products made in those places to Asia and beyond.

•

"We don't have a local market," Kruse! said. "And that's actually an advantage." It takes
30 hours less for a ship from Asia to get here than to Vancouver, he said. Because all
containers on board are destined for inland cities, there's no sorting to be done. All can be
quickly loaded and moved out, and can be in Edmonton, or close to it, by the time a
competing ship is tying up in Vancouver.

•

The Port of Prince Rupert is the gateway between Asia-Pacific and key North American
markets. As the closest port to Asia by 30 hours of sailing time compared to any other
West Coast port in North America, it gives shippers approximately one extra round-trip
voyage per year. Other advantages:

•

Distance from Prince Rupert to key ports in Asia:
• Hong Kong- 5,286 nautical miles
• Shanghai - 4,642 nautical miles
• Tokyo - 3,830 nautical miles

•

Deepest harbour in North America

•

Year-round service- ice-free harbour

•

Safest West Coast port in terms of navigational risk factors

•

Closest port to open ocean - minimizes pilotage time in Canadian waters and reduces
costs
51

•

Six modern tern1inals - dedicated facilities to handle grain, coal, forest products and
specialty grain

•

Ready for tomorrow's 12,000 TEU superships

•

Fast access to every major market in
North America. Transit times from
Prince Rupert are:
107 hours - to Chicago
136 hours - to Memphis
108 hours - to Toronto
115 hours - to 1'-1ontreal

i

/
\

'1

•

The CN mainline begins directly at the
Port ofPrince Rupert's door, where 7
daily trains will depart every week.

•

New container ships cost an average of
$80 million

•

Five ships are needed for a service
string, such as between the Pacific Northwest and Asia.

•

Container equipment to support a single new-generation vessel costs in the $1 0-to-15
million range.

•

An average dry container costs about $3,000, and with refrigerated units ranging from
$25,000 for an insulated container with a standard generation unit, up to $50,000 for a
container that uses microprocessors to continuously monitor and control temperature and
humidity.

''

• A typical trans-Pacific round trip voyage takes 42 days and incurs a daily operating cost
in excess of $40,000

•

A typicallinehaul container vessel carries 4,000 to 5,000 TEU, including capital,
administrative and operating costs.

•

Linehaul ships are designed for loading and service flexibility, making fewer port calls
and spending less time in each port. In the Pacific, for example, they deliver huge
container volumes at high capacity "load center" or trans-shipment ports, for regional
distribution via smaller "feeder" vessels, truck or rail.

52

Appendix B

Contacts

Pat Bell, MLA- August sth Meeting
What Types of Business Opportunities will Exist?
Direct Potential Opportunities include:
• Transportation
• Backhauling to Asian Market
• Asians are looking for products that they can add value to as they have extremely low
labor costs.
• Product examples: Specialty Grains, Lawn Seed, Tree-tops
• Trucking
• House Package Business
Indirect opportunities may include: Tires, Fuel, Etc.
Cathy Scouten, Manager, Corporate Affairs, lnitatives Prince George - August
24th Meeting
• Task Force may be created regarding the feasibility of a Inland Port in Prince George.
Myself, and Keith Hampe are potential candidates for the task force.
• Will share information.
• Look forward to the results of our analysis and papers.
Stieg Hoeg, Manager, Prince George Airport & Board Member of NWDC - Sept.
5th Meeting
•
•

Discussed implications of the Port for the Airport
Primary opportunity is fuel supply should the airport become successful in becoming
a Refueling Centre

Professor Thomas A. Grigalunas, Environmental and Natural Resource
Economics, Coastal Institute, Kingston, Rl - Correspondence
• Discussed use of the forecast model developed by Grigalunas and Luo
• Recommended looking at models developed in UBC.
Meifeng Luo (Ph.D), Environmental and Natural Resource Economics,
University of Rhode Island, Kingston,RI
• Discussed use of the forecast model developed by Grigalunas and Luo
• Recommended looking at model: Determinants of the demand for maritime imports
and exports by Pablo Coto-Milla'n, Jose' Ban-os-Pino, and Jose' Villaverde Castro

53

Graham Kedgley, Board Member of NWDC Sept. 7th, Meeting
• Very little discussion - recommended sources for additional information.
Don Kruse I, President and CEO of the Prince Rupert
8th Meeting
Port Expansion is Containers only
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Port Authority, Sept.

Genetically Modified Grains
High Value Trade
Main Target is Asian Goods Imports
Asia to Mid-North America
Pork I Beef, etc going back.
Opportunities for back-haul - inexpensive
Transformational Infrastructure - This infrastructure increases opportunities.
Asian Markets taken from other Pacific Coastline
Vancouver and Fraser River are Container Port
Market is growing faster than facilities
2 million TEU' s

··'

Harold C. Westerman , P.Eng., Branch Manager, MOFFATT & NICHOL- Sept.
27th Meeting
• Look at Port of Savannah- Distribution Centres
• Export Facilities - ie: Specialty Grains (Hopper Cars)
• CN is going to be the key!
• 7,000 foot long train headed to Eastern Markets is not going to stop in Prince George
• Truck from PG to Prince Rupert may be more feasible than stopping train
• Prince Rupert is discretionary port - no local market
• One day less travel time - 2 Million TEU' s to Rupert
David Farrell , Sessional Lecturer, Transportation and Logistics, University of
British Columbia, Vancouver - Oct. 12 Correspondence
• Awaiting response to questions e-mailed.
• Recommended talking to Don Krusel and Chamber of Commerce.
Graham Dallas - Regional Manager Communications, CN Rail
• $3 to $4 million for container moving equipment
• On rolled concrete
• Up to mkt. Forces re Prince George Region
• CN is not interested in the investment as much as letting local entrepreneurs
• Economic Volumes - would not define
• Prince Rupert Model unique in that there is no local market
• Edmonton Intermodal - $25 Million - but has some market

54

·.
.•.

Faye Wu, MBA, Sr. Marketing and Trade Officer/Agente principale de
commerce & demarche, International Team/Equipe lnternationale
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada/Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada, 420
- 4321 Still Creek Drive, Burnaby, BC, VSC 6S7
• Volume of grains and fertilizers are exported to Asian markets from Northern British
Columbia
Mr. Dennis Pervis, BC Ministry of Agriculture and Land in Northern BC,
Dawson Creek, 1201 103rd Avenue, Dawson Creek BC V1 G 4J2
• Volume of grains and fertilizers are exported to Asian markets from Northern British
Columbia
Sonya Muller, Reporting Coordinator, Decision Support, Information Services
Department, Vancouver Port Authority
• Statistics for Inbound and Outbound to Asia - The top level categories included are:
o Forest Products
o Grain Products
o Meat and Fish
o Chemical Products
o Fertilizers
Lisa Baratta, BCom, LLB, Manager, Corporate Services, Western
Transportation Advisory Council (WEST AC)
Container imports forecasts

55

Appendix C

Literary Research

The literary research, in order of perceived value to this paper, includes the following:

•

Estimating the Demand for Container Port Services: The Importance of Including
Substitute Ports, July 31, 2002, Meifeng Luo and Thomas A. Grigalunas,
Department of Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, University of
Rhode Island

•

Port of Sacramento Maritime Demand Analysis, Draft Report, September 2004,
Parsons Brinckerhoff, PB Ports & Marine, Inc. In Association With BST
Associates

•

A MULTIMODAL TRANSPORTATION SIMULATION MODEL FOR US
COASTALCONTAINER PORTS, July 31, 2002, Meifeng Luo and Thomas A.
Grigalunas, Department of Environmental and Natural Resource Economics,
University of Rhode Island

•

A TRANSPORTATION DEMAND SPLIT MODEL FOR, INTERNATIONAL
PORTS IN TAIWAN AREA, Chien-Chang CHOU, Department of International
Trade, Ta Hwa Institute of Technology, Ching-Wu CHU, Associate Professor
Dept. Shipping & Transportation Management, National Taiwan Ocean
University, Gin-Shuh LIANG, Professor, Dept. Shipping & Transportation
Management, National Taiwan Ocean University Journal of the Eastern Asia
Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.S, October, 2003

•

Determinants of the demand for maritime imports and exports, 29 May
2004,Pablo Coto-Milla'n a,*, Jose' Ban-os-Pino b, Jose ' Villaverde Castro a
Department of Economics, University ofCantabria, Avenida Los Castros,
Department of Economics, Campus del Cristo, University of Oviedo,
Oviedo,
Spain

•

British Columbia Ports Strategy : Final "March 2005", Co-published by the
Ministry of Small Business and Economic Development and the Ministry of
Transportation.

•

A framework for sustainable port planning in inland ports: a multistakeholder
approach., Michael Dooms and Cathy Macharis, (2003) Vrije Universiteit
Brussel, Department of Business Economics and Strategic Management

•

INLAND PORTS: PLANNING SUCCESSFUL DEVELOPMENTS, Jolanda
Prozzi, Russell Henk, John McCray, Rob Harrison, Center for Transportation
Research, The University of Texas at Austin, International Journal of Maritime
Economics, 2002

56

•

Challenging the Derived Transport Demand: Geographical Issues in Freight
Distribution, Jean-Paul Rodrigue! , Department of Economics & Geography,
Hofstra University, Hempstead, New York 11549, USA, (April2005)

•

Balancing Port Planning: Demand, Capacity, Land, Cost, Environment, and
Uncertainty, Ports Conference 2004, Stephan A. Curtis- Editor, May 23-26, 2004,
Houston, Texas, USA

•

COMPETITION, EXCESS CAPACITY, AND THE PRICING OF PORT
INFRASTRUCTURE, H.E. HARALAMBIDES, Center for Maritime Economics
and Logistics (MEL), Erasmus University Rotterdam, Burg.

•

Port Pricing Structures and Ship Efficiency, SIRI PETTERSEN STRANDENES,
Centre for International Economics and Shipping, Norwegian School of
Economics and Business Administration

•

Demand Planning and Sales Forecasting: A Supply Chain Essential, Edward J.
Marien, Supply Chain Management Review, Winter 1999.

•

DEMAND FORECAST BASED MODELLING AND CONTROL OF SUPPLY
CHAIN, Heli Laurikkala*, Mikko Ek**, Juuso Rantala****) Machine Design,
Tampere University of Technology, 33101 Tampere, Finland **)Department of
Accounting and Finance, University ofVaasa, 65101 Vaasa, Finland***)
Automation and Control, Tampere University of Technology, 33101 Tampere,
Finland

•

Grain: World Markets and Trade, Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series,
FG 01-04, January 2004

•

PORT OF VANCOUVER FOREST, GRAINS, FERTILIZER, MEAT & FISH,
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS (in metric tonnes) ASIA IMPORT & EXPORT, YTD
NOVEMBER 2005 VS YTD NOVEMBER 2004, Sonya Muller, Reporting
Coordinator, Decision Support, Information Services Department, Vancouver
Port Authority

•

Fertilizer Production Capacity Data, Canada, Canadian Fertilizer Institute, Suite
802, 350 Sparks Street, Ottawa ON KlR 7S8

57

Appendix D

Industry Contacts

The following industry contacts provided information regarding commodity production and
forecast volumes.
Kristy Nudds, Editor, Canadian Poultry
P.O. Box 530 , 150 Donly Dr.S.
Simcoe, ON N3Y 4N5
Tanya Dykstra
Client Manager for Poultry anada
Tel: 1-866-467-6920 Fax: 1-866-467-1371
lrmi Critcher
Director
BC Grain Producer's Association
Paul Gosh, Manager, Data Services BC STATS
Mail Address Box 9410, Stn Prov Govt, Victoria, BC
Location 1st Floor, 553 Superior Street, Victoria

V8W 9V1

Dan Schrier, Manager, Data Services BC STATS
Mail Address Box 9410, Stn Prov Govt, Victoria, BC
Location 1st Floor, 553 Superior Street, Victoria

V8W 9V1

Kai Huei Lin
Data Dissemination Officer 1Agente de diffusion des donnees
Statistics Canada I Statistique Canada
Client Services Division I Division des services a Ia clientele
R.H. Coats Building 1 W 1Statistics Canada 1120 Parkdale Avenue Ottawa ON
K1A OT6
Steven F. Kozuki, RPF
General Manager, Forestry
Council of Forest Industries
400-1488 4th Ave
Prince George, BC
Gilles Laurin
Administrative & Systems Support Specialist
Specialiste administratif et en systemes informatiques
CCPA- ACFPC, 805-350 Sparks, Ottawa, ON, K1 R 7S8

58

Lisa Baratta, BCom , LLB
Manager, Corporate Services
Western Transportation Advisory Council (WESTAC)
Meifeng Luo (Ph .D)
Environmental and Natural Resource Economics
University of Rhode Island, 1 Greenhouse Rd, Suite 209
Kingston, Rl 02881 , USA
Sonya Muller
Reporting Coordinator, Decision Support
Information Services Department
Vancouver Port Authority
Faye Wu, MBA
Sr. Marketing and Trade Officer/Agente principale de commerce & demarche
International Team/Equipe lnternationale
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada/Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada
420 - 4321 Still Creek Drive
Burnaby, BC
Rick Remesch , C.A.
Controller
Pulp and Paper Operations
Canadian Forest Products Ltd
Stephanie Turple
Communications Coordinator/
Coordonnatrice des communications
Chicken Farmers of Canada I Les Producteurs de poulet du Canada
350 Sparks St., Suite 1007, Ottawa ON K1R 7S8

59

List of Tables
Table 2-1

Vancouver Port Cargo Statistics
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t!''U"f1 :.t.(1
.i\.v..

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·ro, ,v;F ru·m urcnn'

it i89.(Ll9

INBOi ll'O
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2. Jll.l6$
II ,141 2Sh6

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oTiN t,\l l"liU/11)
!)RY Ill LK

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;B.i l >.21l•

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Hl ,:5\Cf' I\Y ! \ \B GO 1'YI' f'

Hli.l

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(4 1!:!1 ~ ~

42 ,ti69.;.'\9S

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t:.ii7.vll6
6 1 fiff,i f.f< l

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l.lQJJI)) Ulli.K
l'O IU'IP !Jl O\Jr"l'I C' TO'S ' V l}'
:

Ol'llf:R I'Oltr ~
:
covr
n
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JlY 'f!T+
HHAI.( >N I:\11-ft: RTH J
TOT AI. IN HI) Xll Thl'
TO t'.\ I. I rti!Otll'JI) 11'.11

U\ll' IY l tiiJOllNI.l lh!J
EMJ"'Y 0 1rl IJOUND I U J
TU l ,\1 I.AI 1':.\ l TU I

LA I)J :N INilOUNI) TLP

L \ 1 EN 0111 IJf)IJNJ) I I:JJ

rm ~ ~

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REVENUE
VOYtl. i ~

:~ :

l Afo l .l.U
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6\iZ.OOS
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~ .•;;9
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'Otk,.-l-.:alt:.-., adal. ... :l:tuj.JS•\'Lt'*" ~ ~ :
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o in ~

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61

Table 2-2

Western Canadian Chemical Exports
CHEMICAlS from Western Canada
2015 (2004)
~ion llltoif.ic /01!/ICJ-

Preliminary Foreca t

li>S(Lll)

·ll%

1----

Thund•rU..r

CbemicalsShipnnnt<> (mNiOIJ nKNriclt:mllcs)

~

g

!2

:r::

Yrar

Westbound

Southbound

Eastbound

Tob l

2000

2.02

1.97

.92

4 .92

2004

1.57

2.U

1.21

5.f.oG

2005

1. 76

2.76

1.o2

5.54

2006

'1.78

2.99

1.02

5 .80

2007

1.75

3.39

1.0.5

6.

1008

1.56

3.•11

1.05

6.02

2009

lAO

3.37

1.05

5 .82

2010

1.22

3.39

).()5

S.GG

1.12

3. 39

1.05

S.GG

·1.3"

~

~

o,;

Gft:tmi1R.ew
2()/5J2QfH

Western Transportation Advisory Council, Vancouver, BC

62

Table 2-3

Western Canadian Grain Exports
TOTAl GRAINS• from Western Canada
2015 (2004)
~i n 11 >/ric to nnes

Preliminary forecast
Chlll'dlill

•1ralns =whe:ot :111d
durum, b:arley ~n :~
t:lllOI:i, DOltS, flliX, drii!d
peas, Ientil s, r.oybellns

17.14 {13/18

llnlnd.,_. 1'1.1}'

Total Grains" Sh-ipments imllion J1K'tr.ictormes)
Yt>ar

Westbound

Southbound

Eastbound

Tollll

>a::

2000

17.40

3.58

11 .05

32.01

:i

'200•1

BAS

2.99

9.85

26.32

2005

14 .26

V IS

9.67

26.37

2006

15.1-4

3. 19

10.12.

21lA•I

1007

15.5')

3.44

10 .:!8

29.3()

15 .99

3.55

10.15

29.98

16.54

3.76

10.G1

30.90

17.0•1

3.9 1

10.74

3 1.G8

17.74

4, II

11.1 2

32 .96

~

~

l .l'f..

2. 1"'

...Cll
0

Crowrh Rat c
2()/ 5/]004

Western Transnortation Advisorv Council. Vancouver. BC

63

Table 2-4

Western Canadian Fertilizer Exports
TOTAl FERTiliZERS from Western Ca nada
201 5 (2004)
millioll metric tQOOCJ

l"reliminary Forecast
Owrchill

7J0(621}

>
«
~
(IJ

3:

~ r

Westbound

Soulhbound

Eastbound

Tolal

2000

·1.18

1 L72

L89

17.79

200o1

G.2 1

12.09

Ui6

19.96

2005

6.:\5

12.38

1.55

20.27

2006

6.30

B :ll

'1.63

2 1.04

2007

6.60

14 .00

1.64

22.2'1

2003

6.60

1•1J7

1.65

:.!3.0 2

.2009

7.10

1•1.93

1.67

23.70

20'10

~

15.09

1.68

24.07

20 15

7.l0

15.29

1.68

2'1.27

1.5'1.

2.1'!'

0.#,;

~

; 1Jl1Wl /

c;ru.w.fl R•w
JOIS/l(XM

Western Transoortation Advisorv Council. Vancouver. BC

64

Table 2-5

Western Canadian Forest Products Exports
TOTAl fOREST PRODUCTS from We tern Canada
2015 (2004)

at[h;"l)n f1't:1ric ronnt..$

lu,t\bcr, plp oOO f.

_1}1\l\\'IS,, """'ttrint,

pulp, p.tptt &
p4pc1b<Mr<l

e
~

f/'J

:%:

Vl'ar

\W-stbountl

[;)$(b01i11d

Total

.!000

11.01

9.48

34.04

()j()

16.4)

40.M

!5,4'

H' il<t

10()4

46.91

.>2.78

Western Transnortation Advisorv CounciL Vancouver. BC

65

Table 2-7

Western Canadian Container Exports
CONTAINERS from Western Canada
2015 (2004J
'OOOTEU's

Preliminary Forecast
Chun:hill

~

~

~

loaded Import o~r
Ye;ar

~

...0

CJ)

:;,:

In through

Wt!5lCoa'5it

in

1hWid<rB.ly

('000 11!.11'::>)

Southbound

fAl$thound 1

2000

488

344

2004

930

655

2005

!))58

7-16

10n6

1, 195

9·12

1007

1.3 19

2ooa

?

'JO

?

1,015

2009

1,598

1, 126

2010

1,776

1,2.52

2;'06

1,907

ro~n

Ril«•

:ZOI S/200,1

~

0

10.1,;

Western Transportation Advisory Council, Vancouver, BC

66

Table 2-8

Total Western Canadian Exports by Product

2004 Western Canada Exports
coal

grains
forest products
fertilizers & potash
sulphur
other ("Ood products
~ i

s

other chen icals
sand & gravel
&tone & limestone

cemt!nl
othN forest products (IOQs, bolts, chips)
primary iron & steel
non-fer rous products & alloys
residual (textiles, etc)

fabr icated steel products
machinery & related eqmt.
non-me ta llic products
fresh & frozcfl frulls & vegetables
five anitnals
flon-fcr rous metals
f urniture, rnaJor appliance!'. and household eQuiplllent
passenger & other motor ~ i s
electr ical machinery & elect. Eqmt.
plastics & ru bber

total foreign exports
forecasts as % or total

TOTAL TONNE$
31,000,000
26,320,000

40,890,000
19,960,000
8,200,000
7,009,748
~

3,35!,809
2,846,268
2,494, 62:7
1,836,154
1,550,000
1,113,'746
922,620
920,604
590,532
519,999
458,742
289,454
225,530
203,6.53
162, ()32
72, 1}10
63,001
15,882
156,280, 1.:29
82 .06%

Western Transoortation Advisorv Council. Vancouver. BC

67

Table 2-9

Statistics Canada - British Columbia Exports

•••

/ '' .gc.ca
strategts

Industry
Canada

Can

lndustrio
Canada

~

• Trade and Investment • Trade Data Online

Title Canadian Total Exports
Industries Listing of Top 25 Industries (5-digit NAICS codes)
- B.C. AND TERRITORIES---- British Columbia
- B.C. AND TERRITORIES---- Nunavut
Origin
- B.C. AND TERRITORIES---- North-West Territories
-B.C. AND TERRITORIES---- Yu kon
ASIA (Total) Afghanistan
ASIA (Total) Bangladesh
ASIA (Total) Bhutan
ASIA (Total) Brunei Darussalam
ASIA (Total) Burma (Myanmar)
ASIA {Total) Cambodia (Kampuchea)
ASIA {Total) China
ASIA (Total) East Timor
ASIA (Total) Hong Kong
ASIA (Total) India
ASIA (Total) Indonesia (includes East Timor)
ASIA (Total) Japan
ASIA (Total) Korea , North
Destination ASIA (Total) Korea , South
ASIA {Total) Laos
ASIA {Total) Macau (Macao)
ASIA {Total) Malaysia
ASIA (Total) Maldives
ASIA (Total) Mongolia
ASIA (Total) Nepal
ASIA {Total) Pakistan
ASIA (Total) Philippines
ASIA (Total) Singapore
ASIA (Total) Sri Lanka
ASIA (Total) Taiwan (Taipei)
ASIA (Total) Thailand
ASIA (Total) Vietnam
Period Latest 5 years
Units Value in Thousands of Canadian Dollars

2ooo

1 2001]

2002

~

2oo3

1 2oo4

32211 -Pulp Mills

1,935,272 l 1,263,095) 1,247,371 [1 ,336,4851 1,525,046

32111-SawmillsandWoodPreservation

1,847,647 11572,736] 1,436,739 ~

32212- Paper Mills

412,485

362,6731

279 ,584 I 260,299']

275,767

,11331 -Logging

161 ,o63 1 180 799]

289,207 ~ 275,547l

244,812

32199- All Other Wood Product
Manufacturing

40,989 1

57,305 l

5302J

55,750

32121- Veneer, Plywood and Engineered
Wood Product Manufacturing

160,957

~~

97,532

50,274

t 142 998

100,450

68

2000

2002

2004

32519- Organic Chemical Manufacturing

188,154

222,653

156,878

32518 -Other Basic Inorganic Chemical
Manufacturing

11,722

11 2,58 1

47,082

31161 -Animal Slaughtering and
Processing

120,335

117,565

135,735

69

Table 2-10 Total British Columbia Beef Production

.

; REGION in BC

1986,

1996

'

2001

jcoast

12,875

20,480

15,960

·Okanagan

23,562

23,702

24,124

J

Kootenays

19,485

22,240

21 ,220

J

Central

25,939

37,762

43,747

279,927

70

Table 2-11 Total Vancouver Containerized Export Volumes
PORT OF VANCOUVER
FOREST, GRAINS, FERTILIZER . MEAT & FI SH. CHEMICA L PR ODU CTS \in meuic tonn,;s)
ASIA IMP ORT & EXPORT
YTD NOVEMBER 2005 VS YTD NOVEMBER 2004

2005 . YTO No\'

Forest Products
Logs. bolts. and other wood
Articles ofwo:d or s:tlitinJ

P :fllo:xl ,

s~in

rr~ s

~

lntour>J

OutOOun:J

305,610

5,682,021 5.987,631 262,729
316.357 ,,

4.076

bdli and cthi'J v.o:d

o:~s

Lumb e r ~n sawn tirnbor

TOTAL

14.9.973
12.509

or

2004. YTD Nov

2tu.34•)

Zi5.804

52."'14 !

291.082

344,07o

1.572.404

1,57 6.4SO

3.236

1,866.7 62

1.&63.999

21

14

21

35

0;

18

18

00 i

24 .700

24.803

26

o.

136

136

1.548.431

1,461 ;

1.833. 151

1.834,612

~

~

G

2€.546

FINISHED Lllf.IBER
2.594

1,545.837

~

o

463

~

579

11<'

WI<LL STRIPPING

0
6>)

s rin

~

r

53 '

527

~

2 .200

2.263

12
~~

i

~

44

WHITE SPRUCE Lllr.18ER

414.153
546.1 92
--12-3-.0-7-t ·---20-2-.1-1-GI

: ------...,.-----,"'·e"'o-1

G

44

~

6.089 ,112 6,351.842

132,039

CEDAR LUMBER

PROCESSED WOOD

TOTAL

465.330

CEC<•.R BOARD

LUMBER
PLANK ..- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Gulbound

Inbound

60

~

202.619 .

2Q2.619

177 ~

177

12

0'
~~~

~

0

_____2_1-4.-9-43-.1

4.

213 .985

213,989

o;

~

816

··········································..................................... ···················--···--L·----···--·--------····-·-·-····.

NEWSPRINT P.•PER
NEWSPRII·IT ROLL

Othor pap<>r .md p.1per board

152,24& :

123,992

276.240

127,044 !

~

139

140,095

297.140

4.810

17.50?

TU·»day, J,' """' Yo1. 2006 2006-01-11 YTO NO'/ 05 \'S 04 ASIA tr.IPORT EXPORT.ppr of port<iow carg·>(Roportor) Pago I

PORT OF VANCOUVER
FOREST. GRAifo!S . FERTILIZER . MEAT & FISH . CHEMICAL PRODUCT S (In m9tric tonn.-o;)
ASIA IMPORT &. EXPORT
YTD NOVEMBER 200 5 VS YTD NOVEMBER 2004
CJnons, o

~ bags ilnd ~i i r r ~

rs oorn

Other n

: :~r oor ord r i

r

s of paper, paperbo:Jrd

~ and perb:JiCJis

s

o (ind rups . plat.?s. lrnl

~r

Dthor pro:Juds of tho priniing irdu•lrf
Poper stock. used fer t>ousehdd orsonilJrf purpo..,.,ol a 1\idih"'

113,501

~i

2:1,983

12.e;.& '

478

1,374

1.852

471

24,84 1

11 ,2S2

30. 123

18,824

12 .8 15 ·

2 1.639

6.854

2.CD4 ,

8.858

6,191

2.003 ,

8.1%

139

0

139

1M :

27 '

473

2 11

4.149
n ~r

~r oor

o ~r

r oor

~

oo

Printed OO:lk.s . r

r~

SanitJr)' on.ides. Jnd o

~~s ~~nn

1--·

Trade

ir

~ fil:AC>. o~~

of

IE!nflets 3rd sinibr rrin~ maltH
r~

~n~ ~ o~ : o r

~o r isin

~

d r.<Jp:;ror cellulooe fibri!!!S

~rno ro
~

moti!!riol. ccmm.erciol CJittloguee. (ind nyers)

Uno::mted kmft p;Jpo:-r/p..1pe.rboord ,in r

s~

:ir

s r ~ ro n: o

Unooot•d papsrfpap?rboord in r ~ s
s (ind linerboard) .,..
~~~noo o ~ o r
ro
~
oo r
~ ~or rin ~in r ~n~ ~in
:~

·41 ,107

similar wall cx:r,'t3orinp: ~ n

42.6?7

32.528 ,

1\3 .118

1Xl i

120

4~

S11 ~

814

15,33 1

1.616 .

18.947

16.712

.583 i

16.296

2.602

2.322

~~ ~

~ ~~ ~

2,887 ,

2,756

632

1,e.;:6

2 ,328

66S

323

n s :

n: i~s of p3pe

~ ~ ~ s~

~~ o:-.· - - - - -8-1-.0-72-

PULPWOOD

-

WOOOCHIP

~

~ : ::: ::

~

~:

~

~

~

.S,G43

~

~

989

: o~ ::

~ o :: : : :

13,378
~

15,352
~

296 .898 !

2S6.B9S

520 '

520

01

10

10

520

0'

'10

10

~

295.036

29b.J7S :

29 6.378

21 !

21

33,?D7

33,301

~

21>"3.050

HEMLOCK CHIP
PULPWOOD CHIP

~~

234 ________2_9_9+-______3_7____________2_B__________il-15

65

0'

Pulpwood ch ip•

Woodpulp
Tu·>sday. Janumy 3 1. 2006

.5,935

...... ....·--·--·----...-. - .........__,,_._,_..,.,__
0. 7G8
15,070
1.974
~
~~ ~
n~~

5.302
~.•"'
·3-3

0

Pulpwood

51.646

1. 570 ;

..erP.p.;.:tJ:.srkr.Jt"'d. not f«· hous.ihJ

r o

3. 169,as s
313
3,169,573 :
\'TO NOV 05 VS 04 A.SIA IMPORT EltPORT.ppr of p·>rtvre,, carlJ» (Rep<•rli>r) Page 2

295,04 6 '

o.
0

295,046

0
295,036

2&5.036

3,164.342

3.164.522.

71

PORT OF VANCOUVER
FOREST , GRAINS. FERTILIZER . MEAT & FISH. CHEM ICAL PRODUCTS (in rnotric
ASIA IMPORT&. EXPORT
YTD NOVEMBER 2005 VS YTD NOVEMBER 2004

wood pulp.s.xt:l a suiJ:trJte(.:xc dissol·.i r :~

~ i

r

~s

J 13

1.169.573

J.1®.88S

1!0

313

2 ,611.13'?.2

2.511.046

1/lO

17

17

0

0

0

103,677

103.677

0

215,423

454,247

454.247

o'

215,423 '

328.565 .

328,565

5,601.725 ' 5,692 .417

92,766

M!:!chaniC!II 'IJco:l pulp

l)ther chemiC;;JI 'IJocd pulp: other fibroos o31ulc.o:;ic pulps
s ~ Jrd sa..1p of p3pHlPJp'l?rboord

Grain Products

90,691

o

f--::-B-ar..,.ro_}_'

~:: : ::

40

3: 164,S22

2.820.535

G~

5,949,0S3 ' 6,041,849
35S.341 ·

35S.3SO

17,:;.)4

17.904

23

t.t.AL T BARLEY

153.044

153,044

17

999

1.002

CORN SEED

103

103

0

18 '

18

POPCORN

-1.95

898

0

47 ,

47

17.5Sl

11U33

253 ,

1M53

·16.705

s~

752

FLAXSEED
I----:L-::IN-::s=E:=
Ec:-0- -

752
~

Q'

358 .341

~

66 :

23
358.357

66

16 .453 :
16.705
,- - - --:TI::- - - - - -7::-:3- 1-----..,..
0 ,- - - - - - , 0·,- - -- - 0,-l
17..~

~

253

25 '

25,926

2.5,950

42

121.102 •

OAT

25

16.€-23 '

16.650

42

15 ,4.69

l5,5 11

RYE SEED

0

O,?D:i

9,300

0

105,633

105,633

Oats and ryo

~

or o i

r : r

r

170.948

3. 1o4.:l42

8."-RLEY SEED

Co rn

r ~

onn~s

~: ~

:

~

ir

s: isr i ~ 3rd

r oroo~ oo s

~

~s : ~ r

o ~~

l:akery products

:~

Pa&ta,whethe-ror nct O'XIk:edf5tuff€Cbrcth€-Mi&e

~

~

~

2.0:t

26,182

25,390

1,533 '

26.023

3,SS5 .

1,218

4,882

4,CJ20

1.1 92

5.212

16.492

£6

16,587

23

20.287

i

r

~

2.!, 111

o :s~

:~~

----------+----------------

Tuo;&d•y. JanuMy ~

r~

______

~

....... ......-..

12.1.144

i~

~~

____

~

~ ~

~~

2006 2006-01-ll YTD NOV 05 VS 04 ASIA ll.lP ORT EXPORT.ppr of p<>rtm·w <•rgv (Reporl<r ) Pago1

PORT OF VANCOUVER
FOREST, GRAINS. FERTILIZER . MEAT & FISH . CH EMICA L PR ODUCTS \in lll9tric tonnesl
A SIA IMPORT & EXPORT
.
YTD NOVEMBER 2005 VS YTD NOVEMBER 2004

Olh;:r milling io:Justrj pro::lucts ; i

- - ---- - -- ·-·

r~

inulin. ·\\fl.:otguwn

1'/heot four

--· - --

~~ and oth?r Cw?r2<1:1ls

ns

145]05

150,334

149,044

11 8.835

118,969

4,650

18.154 ;

22.810

317

21.215 '

21 .532

r :

: :s: : :s: :~

'35,661

62,366

5.803 .

SS,170

2.074.271

0.

I,S$!7.240

1.397,24(}

2.068.=

2.(6&,329

0.

1,891.84 1

1,891.841

5,942 '

5,942

0

l.111l.616 l

3.11 6.694

4; '

--------::-2. ~~~

G ~

GRAIN SEED

45 .

WHEAT

20

:~~ in o : r ~ r

~ ~s

201.494 ,
70.576

r

n ri

solt.:-1 or cooked in 'lhlte

~ a

Fish, ri~ i

n ~

fiJhme<.JI fit for h.Jman !:onsumption

Fish, fresh cr chilled. exc fish i

Fish, ro ~n

~ s and other fish meal

E-I."C fi\h fillet s ard ctht?r fish me:.t

Moat and odiblo rnoat offal
~

and

i ~:

meatcrfl'al (exc paullr,.), rresh dilled or fro*n

M•at and edibl• dfol of JX!Uiiry. !roo h. chillod cr fiaz•n
~r

~s

~

and edible me3t Offill

::::o:: s

18,33•)

4..962

68 '

Fish fillets Jnd olhar fish meot. hsh. chilled cr frozen

17 ,92 1

2,074.27'1'

Wheat

Fish and c rust.lc o.1n •

40;l

0
RAPESEED

Meat and fish

4.628

60. /iW

CANOLA.

r

11'13,386

~

188.4t2 .

4.973
Molt

~

11 .968

~ :: ~
i

:: ~

45

:<D j

3.114,482

~

436,677 ;
s o~ : : :

638,171 181 ,927 :

~

~

3.402.941

3.402.SB7

~~

~

:::: :: ~

144 :

l o4

.3.401.213 '

3.401.217

425,139

607,066

~~o~s ~ 0::-1+---6-6::. ~ ______4_0_.4_6_2-;,----10_7_:_19__
4

2.¥1!. ·

45.859

35.575

::

o ~

?r"J9

12.66T

12.823

655

13,.:178

~

191

9

200

92

3,701

2.823

IS.OiO

20

258

7.135 .

7,458

4.i.902

46.053

17.763

1.293

366.031 .

367,324

1.&67

350,122 .

351.7S9

524 '

337.?£.13

2.?.7,917

1.103

328.536 .

320,63.9

i69

28.614 .

29.383

21.481 '

22.045

24

25

o:

105

January o 1. 2006 2QQ,;.Q1-J1 YTD NOVo; VS 04 ASIA IMPORT EXPORT.ppr of portviow cargo (RopmP-ri Pago 4

72

PORT OF VANCOUVER
FOREST. GRAINS , FERTILIZER . MEAT & FISH, CHEMICAL PRODU CTS (in metric
ASIA IMPORT & EXP ORT
YTD NOVEMBER 2005 VS YTD NOVEMBER 2004

onn~ s

or a<

12';;.6 24

32,&2-1 ·

162.2451

'113,537 i

34.55 6

f4S.093

prepar.:d lll:?.lls. l'll&JlW:tracts

74,112

14,9&3

m.osa 1

61.5213

13.584

75.11 0

Pr!opilrnlioos cf fish •:.r oquJtic inverte-bra les (ind prepared me:::.ls:

SS,512

Prop'tions of o

is

r s

Pf€-p d meal (ind SJUS:J;li:,

~

~ ns

o

s

io

-

CH EMICAL PRODUCTS

216,856

'

~~

72.')82
20.971
i_
1,376.512 1.593,368 1 195.406 : 1,370,639 1,566,045

74.342

1,257. 767

1,?.32,108

70,4M .

Other ioJrganic dlemicals; a:mprds of j:f"ae metllls:T3dk'-'li:lit•e Ele.:

54 .836

97.717

152.553

45,597 '

1ol6.4B3

l52,08oJ

Other proj!J of cheom indus trio:& ~ :

77.194

21.014

~

76.?41

26.722

103,363

2.&%

(• ;

2,694

1,040

7,578 ,899 7,579,939

Orgi1nic

~ i

i

So:Jium h;Umlade ~

i

r n

prods. (:lOinls. so:tp)

scd3)

- -10.484
- -·- -1,556

FERTILIZERS

u ·

10.498 1

8,005.136 8,006,692

PohJssium chbrdl?

0

4.237,500 '

4.237,566

o'

Sulphur

0

3.765.&:7

3.765.807

0

: sr

01her

~

rc..::ks

87

0.

r i is~rs

1.469

1, 703

- ,,

0>

87

1,040

>.232 1

1,307,908

1.237 ~

4. 114,363

4,114.363

3.4B2.9 11

3.462.011

0

0

1,625

2,665

-

-. carg.;. (R<·pc rtoq Paqo >
Tu·,sday. January .' 1. 2006 2006-01-JI YTD NOV Oo \:> 04 A.SIA IMPORT EXPORT.ppr of p<>rt11c·»

73

Table 2-12 Total Vancouver Containerized Export Volumes
BC Origin Exports of Selected Goods to Asia, 2005
Commodity
Beef, pork and poultry meat, unprocessed - kilograms
Processed meat products- kilograms

Value-Cdn $
31,709,426
6,179,261

Wheat, rye and barley- Metric tonnes
Oats , corn , rice , etc. - kilograms
Flours, starches, powders etc., of grains- kilograms

Logs - cubic metres
Lumber- cubic metres
Veneer, siding, flooring- square metres
Plywood, OSB, fibreboard, panelling, etc. -cubic metres
Wood chips- metric tonnes
Sawdust and wood shavings - kilograms
Various wood products - metres
Various wood products - number
Various wood products -cubic metres
Various wood products - square metres
Va rious wood products with no available quantity measure
Pulp - metric tonne air dry
Paper, newsprint, etc. - metric tonnes
Paper, paper products, etc. - kilograms

18,011 ,288
1,206 ,406
13,430,207

253,054,061
1'159, 196,560
6,668 ,531
51 ,777 ,974
20,232,165
1,137,929
255,092
140,611
450,901
1,403,675
44,428 ,464
1,208,490,502
281 ,610,996
2,420,164

Quantity (kg)
22,560 ,222
1,448,891

2,983 ,405
28 ,573 ,791

1,990,868
4,001 ,292
1,910 ,258
137,600
7,022 ,365
10,661

N/A

Beef, pork and poultry meat, unprocessed - kilograms
Beef - kilograms
Poultry - kilograms
Pork - kilograms
Processed meat products- kilog rams

Value· Cdn i
31,709,426
242,603
11 ,915,643
19,551,180
6,179,261

47, 116
631
122,673

Tonnes
22,560
1,449

TEU's
2,400
154

24,009

2,554

93,719
2,983
28,574

9,970
317
3,040

82,953
166,721
79 ,594
5,733
190,691
7,022
1,963
11
26
5,111

20,286
747

3,423,769

238,023
68 ,638
141
327,837

Tonnes
n i~ (kg}
22,560,222
22,560
189,433
189
13,046,089
13,046
9,325
9,324,700
1,448,891
1,449

TEU's
2,400
20
1,388
992
154

1,323,701

Produced by: BC STATS- Ministry of Labour & Citizens' Services
For Inquiries phone: 387-0376 Dan Schrier
Source: Statistics Canada

BC Origin Exports of Meat Products to Asia, 2005
Commodity

Ml

2,237,420
645,200
1,324

Produced by: BC STATS- Ministry of Labour & Citizens' Services
For Inquiries phone: 387-0376 Dan Schrier
Source: Statistics Canada

74

Table 2-13 Grain Commodity Forecasts

Total Grains- Western Canada
(m!Uion metric torme:s)
Yenr

~s

o n

Total

At g. A111111al c· ·owtil
RMt'""

~

14.26

26.37

1-.59

29 .30

17.04

31.68

17.74

32.96

Wheat & Durum -Western Canada
(rniltiOf? metric

Year

\Vest bound

o~s

Total

.·hg. Awwal (j,·qHrll
Rn_t,: "" 1_. 2 lib

At·g. Anuual Gr()wl11
Rate"' 1.2%

2005

7.60

~

2007

8.20

16.65

2010

8.70

17.75

2015

9.10

4

75

Barley & l\i1alt - Western Canada
(million metric tonnes)

Total

\\estbouud

YNU'

Atg. Amuwl Growth
Rnti? t .?3'&

.·hg. itllrhtll (;,·o •nh

Rnt•

~

2005

1.82

2.95

2007

1.90

3.08

2010

2015

1

L_

2.20

3.60

2.30

3.73

··- l
!

I

i

j

Canofa- Western Canada
_

(million.:.ou""'·"'"'
metric tonnes)
-•· r
.... ....

""'1"__ ....

\Vestbound

Year

.·hg. Almmd Gromh
i

~
1

... ,e..

~

~

I

'"'_,..

""''"'

-

-

Total

I A1-g••Rat.·=
-imwal Growth
3.6'6

2005

3.20

4.16

2007

3.80

4.80
~

2010

4.40

2015

4.50

I

5.30
5.40

76

Dried Peas- Western Canada
(million metric tonnes)

'V ~s

Yeal'

'i ~

o n
-..l'il<ii'i! G•·a•1 :,,

Total

lfilto' "" 3.1 ''o

r.'

1005

1.20

2007

1.25

'

2010

1.30

1.96

1.40

1.08

l

r
7

1015

. !

77

Table 2-14 Bank of Canada- Commodity Price Index

Commodity Price Index 1982-90=10Q (U.S. dollars)

bulice de .. - prix des· produil.\' de base (dollars E.-U.); 1982-1990#100
Tot:\1
Tot,rl

llJ93

l lJ94

1095

j\)96

J91J7

j(){}i')
jt){)l}

2000
2001

2002
20()3

2fl()..j.

2005

94.C)5
9!S.05

106. 17
110.25
l 06.22
}i9,97

<J6.02
11 3.7 1
~

(!I( .45

12Ui2
146.82
180.63

E.\cl uuint!
n nn~

l"nere:t<'
cxcille

104.X:1
11 2.71
125.2!
123.74
II 8.44
103. 57
105. 17
IO:S.RO
101.34
94. 69
103.0(1
125.02
129.78

Encn.!Y
l"11e; ~ ~ e

7f1.49
70.68

70.62
:->5.05

83 .31)
64.58

94
122.s?
~

~

11 2.50
153.38
I R3 .32
266.53

Food

lntlustrial
Materials

loU on

tlldi!SIJ'ie//c.1

105.%
104.03
108.08
11 9.36

104.37
116.23
132. 17
125.52
123 .20

Alimen-

l 06.71

92.68
88.28

03.1)5
96.3 1
94.55
101. 76
114.76
11 6.25

:1/a!h;re.\

108.00

11 2.0.\
114.84
103.86
95.13
103.94
129.93
136.11

78