US INGBURNP3TO MODEL W ILDF IREPROBAB IL ITYANDA IDIN MANAGEMENTOFNORTHERNBOREALFORESTSINTHETESL IN TL ING ITTRAD IT IONALTERR ITORY by D e r ekHa l l B .S c . ,Un iv e r s i tyo fNo r th e rnB r i t i shCo lumb i a ,2015 THES ISSUBM ITTEDINPART IALFULF ILLMENTOF THEREQU IREMENTSFORTHEDEGREEOF MASTEROFSC IENCE IN NATURALRESOURCESANDENV IRONMENTALSTUD IES UN IVERS ITYOFNORTHERNBR IT ISHCOLUMB IA Ap r i l20 ,2018 ©D e r ekH a l l ,2018 Ab s t ra c t Th rou ghcommun i tyco l l abo r a t ionanden g a g em en t , w i ld f i r er i skw a s id en t i f i eda sap r io r i tyfo r e s tvu ln e r ab i l i ty inT e s l in ,Yukon ,aT l in g i tcommun i tyo f app ro x im a t e ly450p eop l e .Gu id edbycommun i tyd i r e c t edr e s e a r ch ,id en t i fy i n g a r e a so fh i gh e rw i ld f i r eh a z a rdinth eT e s l inT l in g i tT r ad i t ion a lT e r r i to ry(TTTT ) w a so f in t e r e s ttoh e lpsu ppo r te co sy s t emb a s edp l annin g .U s in gBu rn P3 ,a l and s c ap e l ev e lw i ld f i r e mod e l l in gso f tw a r e , r e l a t iv ew i ld f i r eh a z a rdw a s id en t i f i ed inth eTTTT . Fu tu r ep ro j e c t edc l im a t ech an g es c en a r io sw e r erunu s in gth ep ro g r am , p rov id in gar an g eo ffu tu r epo s s ib i l i t ie sfo rcon s id e r a t ion .Bu rnP3comp l em en t sth e e xp e r i en c eandknow l ed g eo fcommun i ty m emb e r swho l iv e inth eTTTTandth i s in fo rm a t ionh a sa l r e adyb e en u s edtosuppo r tth ed ev e lopm en tofe co sy s t em b a s ed p l ann in g .I t i sc l e a rth a tcommun i tyfo r e s tm an a g em en tw i l ln e edto in co rpo r a t e w i ld f i r er i sk mov in gfo rw a rd .A l l l and m an a g em en t inth ecommun i ty i snowb e in g v i ew edth rou ghth e l en so fw i ld f i r er i sk ,wh i ch i sth eg r e a t e s tb en e f i to fth i sp ro j e c t . i i Tab leo fCon ten t s Ab s t ra c t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i i Tab leo fCon ten t s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i i i L i s to fTab le s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v L i s to fF igu re s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v i A cknow ledgemen t s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x Chap te r1 :In t rodu c t ion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1 .1P ro j e c tBa ckg roundandPu rpo s e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1 .2R e s ea r chOb j e c t i v e sandP ra c t i ca lApp l i ca t ion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1 .3Th e s i sOu t l in e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Chap te r2 :L i te ra tu reRev iew. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2 .1Th ePa s t :H i s to r yo fAbo r ig ina lBu rn ingandth econ c ep to fana tu ra lf i r er eg im e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2 .2Th eP r e s en t :Eu roAm e r i can W i ld f i r eE x c lu s ion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 2 .3Th eFu tu r e :C l ima t eChang eImp l i ca t ion son W i ld f i r e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2 .4 W i ld f i r eMod e l l ing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2 .4 .1E a r l i e ra t t emp t sto mod e lw i ld f i r e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2 .4 .2F i r eBeh av iou rP r ed i c t ionSy s t em. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 2 .4 .3 W i ld f i r eS imu l a t ion Mod e l s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 2 .4 .4P rome th eu s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2 .4 .5Bu rnP3B a ckg roundandInpu t s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Chap te r3 :Commun i tyD i re c tedRe sea r chinTe s l in. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 3 .1In t rodu c t ion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 3 .2M e thod s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 3 .2 .1S tudyA r e a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 3 .2 .2Id en t i fy ingp r io r i tyfo r e s tr i sk s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 3 .2 .3F e a s ib i l i tya s s e s smen to fBu rnP3to mod e lw i ld f i r eh a z a rd. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 3 .3R e su l t s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 3 .3 .1Commun i tyIn t e rv i ew s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 3 .3 .2F e a s ib i l i tyS tudy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 3 .4D i s cu s s ion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 3 .5Con c lu s ion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Chap te r4U s ingBu rnP3toiden t i fy w i ld f i reha za rdunde rachang ingc l ima tein Te s l inYukon. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 4 .1In t rodu c t ion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 4 .2M e thod s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 4 .2 .1S tudyA r e a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 4 .2 .2 Mapp edInpu t s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 4 .2 .3Ign i t ion s Modu l e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 4 .2 .4Bu rn ingCond i t ion s Modu l e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 4 .2 .5F i r eG row th Modu l e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 4 .2 .6S en s i t iv i tyAn a ly s i so fFu e lC l a s s i f i c a t ion s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 4 .3R e su l t s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 4 .3 .1Ob s e rv ed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 4 .3 .2Ba s e l in e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 i i i 4 .3 .32050 sCGCM. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 4 .3 .42050Had l ey. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 4 .3 .52050 sIPSL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 4 .3 .62080 sCGCM. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 4 .3 .72080 sHad l ey. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 4 .3 .82080 sIPSL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 4 .3 .9S en s i t iv i tyAn a ly s i so fFu e lC l a s s i f i c a t ion s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 4 .4D i s cu s s ion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 4 .4 .1Impo r tan c eo fFBPSy s t emFu e lC l a s s i f i c a t ion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 4 .4 .2Imp l i c a t ion so fC l ima t eCh ang eonBP. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 4 .4 .3Na tu r a lD i s tu rb an c eReg imeCon s id e r a t ion s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 4 .4 .4Bu rnP3l im i t a t ion s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 4 .5Con c lu s ion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 Chap te r5Summa ryandRe commenda t ion s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 5 .1Th en e edfo ra la rg e rp lann ingf ram ewo rk. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 5 .1 .1E co sy s t emBa s edCon s e rv a t ionP l ann ing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 5 .2Po t en t ia lfo rMod e l l ingFu e lR edu c t ionT r ea tm en t s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 5 .3R e comm enda t ion s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 5 .4Con c lu s ion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 L i te ra tu reC i ted. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 Append ixA :FBPfue lc la s s i f i ca t ionf romfo re s tinven to ry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 Append ixB :Ign i t ionG r idC rea t ionfo rTe s l inYukon. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 Append ixC :Ca l ib ra t ion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 iv L i s to fTab le s Chap te r2 T ab l e2 .1 .C an ad i anF i r eB eh av iou rP r ed i c t ion(FBP )Sy s t emFu e lTyp e s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Chap te r4 T ab l e4 .1 . ‘D i s t r ibu t iono f i gn i t ion sbyc au s e ,s e a son ,andf i r ezon e ’fo rth eTTTT b a s edonh i s to r i c i gn i t ion s(1946–2015 )g r e a t e rth an10h a ,anda s sum in ga M ay s td 31st/ Jun e1 iv i s ionb e tw e ensp r in gandsumm e rs e a son s .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 T ab l e4 .2 .S c en a r iosumm a rys t a t i s t i c scomp a r in g mod e l l edf i r es i z e stoh i s to r i cf i r e s i z e s(h a ) .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Append ixA T ab l eA .1 .A s s e s sm en to fpo ly gonv e g e t a t iona c cu r a cyb a s edons t r a tumf i e ld. . . . . . . 105 v L i s to fF igu re s Chap te r3 F i gu r e3 .1 :P ro j e c ts tudya r e ai sth eT e s l inT l in g i tT r ad i t ion a lT e r r i to ry(TTTT ) .Th e T e s l inS t r a t e g i cFo r e s tM an a g em en tP l an( SFMP )fo cu s e sonth epo r t iono fth eTTTT th a t i scon t a in ed inYukonanddo e sno tsh a r eov e r l apw i thn e i ghbo r in gF i r s t N a t ion s ,and id en t i f i e s15 l and s c ap eun i ts ,wh i cha r ec a t e go r i z edbyth e l ev e lo f commun i tya c c ep t an c etofo r e s ta c t iv i ty : low ,m ed ium ,o rh i gh .No t eth eB i gS a lmon l and s c ap eun i tw a s id en t i f i eda sh av in gno m e r ch an t ab l et imb e rbyth eSFMP ,and w a sthu se x c lud edf romth ec a t e go r i z a t iono fcommun itya c c ep t an c etofo r e s t a c t iv i ty .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 F i gu r e3 .2 :S tudya r e af i r eh i s to ry(CNFDBpo ly gon s>10h afo r1946–2015 ) c l a s s i f i edbyd e c ad eandsup e r impo s edov e rth eH omo g enou sF i r eR e g im e(HFR ) zon e sd ev e lop edbyBou l an g e re ta l .(2012 ) .Th eTTTT ,wh i chf a l l sp r im a r i lyw i th in th eP a c i f i cHFR ,show sar e l a t iv e l a cko fr e c en tw i ld f i r ea c t iv i tycomp a r edtoth e mo r ef r equ en tf i r e sr e co rd ed inth eSou thw e s tYukonHFR .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Chap te r4 F i gu r e4 .1 :R ep r e s en t a t iono fth eBu rnP3 mod e l l in gp ro c e s s e sfo ras in g l e i t e r a t ion , wh i chcon s i s t so fm app ed inpu t sand modu l e sth a ta t t emp ttoa c cu r a t e lyr e f l e c tth e n a tu r a lf i r er e g im e .Bpii sth ebu rnp rob ab i l i tyo fap i x e l ,b i s t h e n um b e r o f t im e s a i p i x e lbu rn s ,andN i sth eto t a lnumb e ro f i t e r a t ion s .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 F i gu r e4 .2 :P rom in en tfu e ltyp e s inth eTTTTb a s edonsumm e r2015f i e ldwo rk . R e f e rtoS e c t ion2 .4 .2fo radd i t ion a lb a ck g roundonth eFBPSy s t em .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 F i gu r e4 .3 :Compo s i t eFBPSy s t emfu e lg r idu s ed inBu rnP3 mod e l l in g .B a s edon f i e ld s amp l in g in t e rp r e t a t ion ,v e g e t a t ion inv en to ryd a t aav a i l ab l efo rSFMPLU sw a s u s edtocon s t ru c tapo r t iono fth eg r id ,th ee x t en to fwh i ch i sd i sp l ay edbyd a sh ed r ed l in e .Th er em a ind e ro fth eg r idcon s i s t so fth eCF SN a t ion a lFBPSy s t emfu e l typ e in t e rp r e t a t ion .Th ed i f f e r en c e sb e tw e enth etwoFBPSy s t emfu e l typ ed a t a s e t s compo s in gth i sg r id i sc l e a r lyob s e rv ab l e ,andth er e s e a r cht e amno t edth a tth eCF S N a t ion a lFBPSy s t emfu e lg r idund e r e s t im a t e sth eamoun to fC2(bo r e a lsp ru c e ) in s amp l eda r e a s ,m ak in gth ev e g e t a t ion inv en to ryd e r iv edd a t a s e ta mo r ea c cu r a t e in t e rp r e t a t ion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 F i gu r e4 .4 :E l ev a t iong r idu s ed inBu rnP3 mod e l l in g .Th eTTTT i s mod e r a t e ly moun t a inou s ,p romp t in gth en e c e s s i tyfo rane l ev a t iong r idtoa c cu r a t e ly mod e lf i r e sp r e adund e rth eFBPSy s t em .Th e im a g eonth er i gh tw a st ak endu r in gf i e ld s amp l in gf r omar ad iotow e rv i ewpo in ta c c e s s ib l ebyv eh i c l es l i gh t lyno r tho fth e V i l l a g eo fT e s l in .D i r e c t ion i s look in gsou th e a s t ,w i thT l e ’n a xT ’Aw e i(Lon eSh e ep Moun t a in ;M t .K e i sh ,BC ;e l ev a t ion :1969 m )s e rv in ga sap rom in en te l ev a t ion a lfo c a l po in t ,common lyr e f e r r edto inth ecommun i tya sD aw sonP e ak so rTh eTh r e eA c e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 v i F i gu r e4 .5:I gn i t iong r id sfo r a )hum anc au s edandb )l i gh tn in g c au s edf i r e su s ed in Bu rnP3 mod e l l in g .Th e s eg r id sr ep r e s en tth er e l a t iv ep rob ab i l i tyo f i gn i t iono ff i r e s >3h a .Th eg r e a t e rth ep i x e lv a lu eonth e0–1s c a l e ,th eg r e a t e rth ep rob ab i l i tyth a t th ep i x e lw i l lsuppo r taf i r e i gn i t ion .Th e s eg r id sw e r ec r e a t edu s in ga lo g i s t i c r e g r e s s i onan a ly s i s l ink in gh i s to r i c i gn i t ion s>3h a(1946–2015 ;shownbyb l a ck do t s )w i thendu r in genv i ronm en t a lv a r i ab l e s( e l ev a t ion ,topo g r aph i cpo s i t ion ind e x , r ad i a t ion ,d i s t an c etoro ad s ,andro add en s i ty ) .Th e s eg r id sa r e ind ep end en to fe a ch o th e r ,w i thth e ‘d i s t r ibu t iono f i gn i t ion sbyc au s e ,s e a son ,andf i r ezon e ’d i r e c t in g Bu rnP3howo f t ene a chg r id i su s edtod e t e rm in ea mod e l l ed i gn i t ion lo c a t ion .. . . . . 44 F i gu r e4 .6 : ‘Numb e ro f i gn i t ion sp e r i t e r a t ion ’p r ed i c t ionfo rTTTT(b a s edonf i r e d a t af rom19462015 ) .B a rG r aph i so r i g in a ld a t afo rw i ld f i r e sg r e a t e rth an10h a and l in er ep r e s en t s lo g i s t i csmoo th in gfo r in co rpo r a t ion in toBu rn P3 .Th ev a lu e s f rom lo g i s t i csm oo th in ga r ed i sp l ay ed inth e in s e tt ab l e .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 F i gu r e4 .7 :Comp a r i sono ff i r ew e a th e r l i s tp a r am e t e r sfo rth e8s c en a r io s r ep r e s en t in gth ed i s t r ibu t ion so f inpu tw e a th e rd a t au s edfo r mod e l l in g inBu rn P3 . No t eth a tth ew ind ro s ep lo t ind i c a t e sd i r e c t ionth ew indb low sf romdu r in gf i r econdu c iv ew e a th e rp e r iod s .A l sono t eth a tp r e c ip i t a t ion i sp lo t t edb a s edonth e95% con f id en c e in t e rv a lfo rth em e anr a th e rth anabo x p lo t ,wh i chd idno tshow m e an in g fu ld a t ab e in gth a t mo s tf i r econdu c iv ed ay sh av em in im a lp r e c ip i t a t ion .. 51 F i gu r e4 .8: ‘ Sp r e ad ev en td ay s ’ inpu tc r e a t edf rom MOD I Sf i r ep ro g r e s s iond a t a .B a r g r aph i sth eo r i g in a lp ro g r e s s iond a t afo rf i r e sw i thaRO S≥3 .0 ,wh i chw a s lo g i s t i c a l lysmoo th ed( g r ey l in e )andsub s equ en t lyr e f in edth rou ghc a l ib r a t ion (b l a ckd a sh ed l in e ) .Th enumb e ro fd ay so ff i r esp r e adfo re a ch mod e l l edf i r e i s d r awnf romth ec a l ib r a t edd i s t r ibu t ion ,th ev a lu e so fwh i cha r ed i sp l ay ed inth e in s e tt ab l e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 F i gu r e4 .9 :Bu rnp rob ab i l i tys c en a r io sfo rth eT e s l inT l in g i tT r ad i t ion a lT e r r i to ry . Th eob s e rv eds c en a r io i sa c tu a lw e a th e rd a t a(19862015 ) ,and in c lud edh e r efo r comp a r i son .B a s e l in e i ss imu l a t edcu r r en tw e a th e r(1980 2010 ) ,onwh i chfu tu r e p r ed i c t ion sa r eb a s ed .Th e r ea r es i xfu tu r es c en a r io s(3GCM sx2t im ep e r iod s ) .. . . . 57 F i gu r e4 .10 :Ob s e rv edw e a th e rp e r iod(19862015 )bu rnp rob ab i l i tye s t im a t e ,a lon g w i thbo xplo t( low e r l e f t )andd en s i typ lo t( low e rr i gh t )comp a r in gh i s to r i cand mod e l l edf i r es i z ed i s t r ibu t ion s .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 F i gu r e4 .11:B a s e l in ew e a th e r( s imu l a t ed1980 –2010 )bu rnp rob ab i l i tye s t im a t e , a lon gw i thbo xp lo t( low e r l e f t )andd en s i typ lo t( low e rr i gh t )comp a r in gh i s to r i c and mod e l l edf i r es i z e .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 F i gu r e4 .12: 2050 sCGCMbu rnp rob ab i l i tye s t im a t e ,a lon gw i thbo xp lo t( low e r l e f t ) andd en s i typ lo t( low e rr i gh t )comp a r in gh i s to r i cand mod e l l edf i r es i z e s .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 F i gu r e4 .13:2050 sH ad l ey bu rnp rob ab i l i tye s t im a t e ,a lon gw i thbo xp lo t( low e r l e f t ) andd en s i typ lo t( low e rr i gh t )comp a r in gh i s to r i cand mod e l l edf i r es i z e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 v i i F i gu r e4 .14:2050 sIP SLbu r np rob ab i l i tye s t im a t e ,w i thbo xp lo t( low e r l e f t )and d en s i typ lo t( low e rr i gh t )comp a r in gh i s to r i cand mod e l l edf i r es i z e .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 F i gu r e4 .15:2080 sCGCMbu rnp rob ab i l i tye s t im a t e ,a lon gw i thbo xp lo t( low e r l e f t ) andd en s i typ lo t( low e rr i gh t )comp a r in gh i s to r i cand mod e l l edf i r es i z e s .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 F i gu r e4 .16 :2080 sH ad l eybu rnp rob abi l i tye s t im a t e ,a lon gw i thb o xp lo t( low e r l e f t ) andd en s i typ lo t( low e rr i gh t )comp a r in gh i s to r i cand mod e l l edf i r es i z e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 F i gu r e4 .17:2080 sIP SLbu rnp rob ab i l i tye s t im a t e ,a lon gw i thbo xp lo t( low e r l e f t ) andd en s i typ lo t( low e rr i gh t )comp a r in gh i s to r i cand mod e l l edf i r es i z e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 F i gu r e4 .18 :S en s i t iv i tyAn a ly s i s :A )B a s e l in e i sr ep rodu c edh e r eand i s id en t i c a lto b a s e l in ebu rnp rob ab i l i tyd ep i c t ed inF i gu r e4 .9andF i gu r e4 .11 ,B )C an fu e l s i san o ld e rC an ad aw id ed a t a s e t ,C )N a t ion a l i sanupd a t eda t t emp ta taC an ad aw id e d a t a s e t .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Append ixA F i gu r eA .1:A r e as amp l edw i thGP St r a ck sshown inpu rp l eand l ab e l l edbyd a t e . . . 104 Append ixC F i gu r eC .1:C a l ib r a t iona t t emp t1 ,u s in gth eob s e rv edw e a th e rp e r iod(1986 2015 ) ,a m in imumf i r es i z eo f200h a ,aRO Sth r e sho ldo f5 m /m in ,and5000 i t e r a t ion s .. . . . 116 F i gu r eC .2:C a l ib r a t iona t t emp t2 ,u s in gth eob s e rv edw e a th e rp e r iod(1986 2015 ) ,a m in imumf i r es i z eo f200h a ,aRO Sth r e sho ldo f3 m /m in ,and5000 i t e r a t ion s .. . . . 117 F i gu r eC .3:C a l ib r a t iona t t emp t3 ,u s in gb a s e l in ew e a th e rp e r iod( s imu l a t ed ;1981 2010 ) ,a m in imumf i r es i z eo f200h a ,aRO Sth r e sho ldo f3 m /m in ,and5000 i t e r a t ion s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 F i gu r eC .4:C a l ib r a t iona t t emp t4 ,u s in gsm a l l e rm in imumf i r es i z eo f100h a ,and m a in t a in in gb a s e l in ew e a th e rp e r iod( s imu l a t ed ;19812010 ) ,aRO Sth r e sho ldo f3 m /m in ,and5000 i t e r a t ion s .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 F i gu r eC .5:C a l ib r a t iona t t emp t5 ,u s in gsm a l l e rm in imumf i r es i z eo f50h a ,and m a in t a in in gb a s e l in ew e a th e rp e r iod( s imu l a t ed ;19812010 ) ,aROSth r e sho ldo f3 m /m in ,and5000 i t e r a t ion s .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 F i gu r eC .6:C a l ib r a t iona t t emp t6 ,u s in gsm a l l e rm in imumf i r es i z eo f10h a ,and m a in t a in in gb a s e l in ew e a th e rp e r iod( s imu l a t ed ;19812010 ) ,aRO Sth r e sho ldo f3 m /m in ,and5000 i t e r a t ion s .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 F i gu r eC .7:C a l ib r a t iona t t emp t7 ,u s in gsm a l l e rm in imumf i r es i z eo f3h a ,and m a in t a in in gb a s e l in ew e a th e rp e r iod( s imu l a t ed ;19812010 ) ,aRO Sth r e sho ldo f3 m /m in ,and5000 i t e r a t ion s .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 v i i i F i gu r eC .8:C a l ib r a t iona t t emp t8 ,u s in ga10 h am in imumf i r es i z e .Th esp r e adev en t d ay sd i s t r ibu t ionw a s mod i f i ed ,soa l thou gha m a x imumo f17d ay s i sm a in t a in ed , th ed i s t r ibu t ionw a ss l i gh t lyw e i gh t edto in c r e a s eth ep rob ab i l i tyo f l a r g e rf i r e s ,and d e c r e a s eth ep rob ab i l i tyo fsm a l lf i r e s .R em a in in gun ch an g eda r eth eu s eo fth e b a s e l in ew e a th e rp e r iod( s imu l a t ed ;19812010 ) ,and5000 i t e r a t ion s .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 F i gu r eC .9:C a l ib r a t iona t t emp t9 ,wh i chu s e sth es am e inpu t s a sc a l ib r a t iona t t emp t 8 ,bu tu t i l i z e s10 ,000 i t e r a t ion sr a th e rth an5000 i t e r a t ion s .In c lud e sana s s e s sm en t o f ind i r e c tab so lu t ed i f f e r en c eand m e anbu rnp rob ab i l i ty .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 F i gu r eC .10:C a l ib r a t iona t t emp t10 ,wh i chu s e sth es am e inpu t sa sc a l ib r a t ion a t t emp t9 ,bu t i t e r a t ion sw e r e in c r e a s edto15000 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 F i gu r eC .11:C a l i b r a t iona t t emp t11 ,wh i ch in c r e a s ed i t e r a t ion sto20000 .Ind i r e c t ab so lu t ed i f f e r en c eand m e anbu rnp rob ab i l i tyconv e r g eons t ab i l i ty .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 i x A cknow ledgemen t s Th i sp ro j e c twou ldno th av eb e enpo s s ib l ew i thou tp l en t i fu la s s i s t an c e .I wou ld l ik etof i r s ta cknow l ed g eth eT e s l inT l in g i tF i r s tN a t ion ,who s et r ad i t ion a l l and sd e f in eth es tudya r e ao fth i sp ro j e c t . Mysup e rv i so rS co t tG r e enp rov id ed ov e r a l lp ro j e c tguid an c eandv i s ion . Ro g e r Wh e a t ep rov id edc a r to g r aph i candG I S know l ed g e .M a r cAnd r éP a r i s i en ,andh i sco l l e a gu e sw i thC an ad i anFo r e s tS e rv i c e ( in c lud in g X i an l iW an g,P e t e rEn g l e f i e ld , B r i anS imp son ,andR i ch a rdC a r r )p rov id ed e xp e r t i s eonBu rnP3mod e l l in gp ro c e s s e s ,n a t ion a lFBPd a t a s e t s , id en t i f i c a t iono f t e chn i c a l l im i t a t ion s ,inpu tc r e a t ion ,and mod e lc a l ib r a t ion .Th eT e s l inT l in g i t Coun c i landT e s l inR en ew ab l eR e sou r c e sCoun c i lw e r ein s t rum en t a l ingu id in g p ro j e c td i r e c t ion .Iame sp e c ia l lyth ank fu ltoth eTTC l and st e am( TomCov e ,K a i t l in W i l son ,G i l l i anRou rk e ,Do ro thyCoo l ey ,R andyK e l eh e r ,W i lbu rSm a r ch ,andL ind a Sydn ey )fo rth e i re xp e r t i s eth rou ghou tth ep ro j e c tandfo ra l low in gm etowo rkf rom th eTTCl and s o f f i c edu r in gth esumm e rso f2015and2016 .Th ankyoutoth eYukon Fo r e s tM an a g em en tb r an ch, in c lud in gRob inSh a rp l e sandK i rkP r i c e , and sp e c i f i c a l lyR eb ec c aI r i sh ,whoa s s i s t ed m ew i thFBPSy s t emfu e lty p e g round t ru th in gf i e ldwo rka roundT e s l in insumm e r2015 .App r e c i a t ion i sa l so e x t end edtoth eYukon W i ld l andF i r eM an a g em en tB r an ch(D av eM i ln e ,K r i sJohn son , M ik eSm i th ,andJ enn i f e rYoun g ) fo rp rov id in gc l im a t i cd a t aande xp e r t i s eonYukon fu e ltyp e s .P ro j e c tfund in gw a sp rov id edbyAbo r i g in a lA f f a i r sandNo r th e rn D ev e lopm en tC an ad a–C l im a t eCh an g eP ro g r am ,adm in i s t e r edbyth eC l im a t e S e c r e t a r i a tO f f i c e in Wh i t eho r s e . Sp e c i a lth ank youto M a rkR aymond, mysup e rv i so r fo rawo rk t e rmw i thBC M in i s t ryo fA g r i cu l tu r e, whop rov id edbo thf e edb a ckandsuppo r twh i l eIju g g l edth e d em and so fwo rkandth e s i s .I ’da l sol ik eto t ak eth eoppo r tun i tytoth anka l lth e coun t l e s sp eop l eth a t in f lu en c edo rch a l l en g ed mywo r ldv i ewov e rth ey e a r s, in c lud in g wo rkco l l e a gu e sf rom myv a r iou sfo r e s t ryandsumm e rjob s ,th e m any t e a ch e r sandp ro f e s so r sin myd e c ad eo fpo s t s e cond a ryedu c a t ion ,andanybody e l s ewh oI ’v en e g l e c t edto m en t ion ,bu twhonon e th e l e s sh a scon t r ibu t edtoth e s e p a g e s ,ev en i f ind i r e c t ly .Inc lo s in g , I ’ d l ik etoa cknow l ed g emyp a r en t s,who in sp i r ed in m ea lov eandcu r io s i tyfo r th en a tu r a lwo r ldf romayoun ga g e ,andwho w e l com ed m eb a ckhom einth e l a t e rs t a g e so fth i sp ro j e c t tos e tupano f f i c e in my ch i ldhoodroom , inE squ im a l t ,BC , en ab l in gap e a c e fu lenv i ronm en tcondu c iv etoth e f in a l i z a t iono fth i sth e s i s . x Chap te r1 :In t rodu c t ion 1 .1P ro je c tBa ckg roundandPu rpo se Th es tudya r e afo rth i sp ro j e c tw a sth eT e s l inT l in g i tt r ad i t ion a lt e r r i to ry (TTTT ) ,wh i ch in c lud e s2 ,718 ,370h ao fth eYukonT e r r i to ryand1 ,050 ,731h ao f B r i t i shCo lumb i a .Th ep r im a rypopu l a t ionc en t r eo fth er e g ioni sth ev i l l a g eo fT e sl in , aT l in g i tcommun i tyo fabou t450p eop l e ,emb edd ed inth ebo r e a lfo r e s to fsou th e rn Yukon, a th i s to r i cM i l e804onth eA l a sk aH i ghw ay.Th ep eop l eo fT e s l ina r ea c t iv e onth e i r l andb a s e ,andt r ad i t ion a lhun t in g ,t r app in g ,andf i sh in ga r eaw ayo f l i f e .Th e commun i tyandth eT e s l inT l in g i tCoun c i la r ep a r t i c ip an t s in l and m an a g em en t w i th inth eTTTT .Ane x i s t in gp l ann in gf r am ewo rk ,th eT e sl inS t r a t e g i cFo r e s t M an a g em en tP l an( SFMP ;T e s l inFo r e s tM an a g em en tP l ann in gT e am2007 )o f f e r s on epo t en t i a ls t a r t in gpo in tfo rl and m an a g em en tp l ann in g . How ev e r ,th i sp l ando e s no t in co rpo r a t ec l im a t ech an g ea sapo t en t i a ld r iv e ro ffo r e s tch an g e(O gd enand Inn e s2008 ) . Ap a r tn e r sh ipb e tw e enth ecommun i tyo fT e s l in ,r e s e a r ch e r sf romth eYukon gov e rnm en t , andth eUn iv e r s i tyo fN o r th e rnB r i t i shCo lumb i aw a s in i t i a t ed in2009 (G r e en2016 ) .Th ep ro j e c tund e r t ak enw a sanov e lin i t i a t iv e ,w i thth ecommun i ty d i re c t in gth ep r io r i t i e sfo rr e s e a r chr a th e rth anth er e s e a r chd i r e c t in gcommun i ty m an a g em en t . Th rou ghcon su l t a t ionanden g a g em en tw i thth ecommun i tyo fT e s l in , w i ld fi r er i sk w a s id en t i f i eda sap r io r i ty. M anye ld e r sand lon g t im e r e s id en t s r em emb e rl a r g ef i r e so c cu r r in g inth i sr e g ion ,e sp e c i a l lydu r in gth e1950 s , wh i ch w i tn e s s edtwo l a r g ef i r e sov e r100 ,000h ains i z e e a chw i th inth eTTTT .Youn g e r 1 p eop l ew i th inth ecommun i tyo fT e s l inh av eno m emo ryo f l a r g ew i ld f i r e so c cu r r in g. Th i sab s en c eofl a r g ef i r e ev en t s inr e c en td e c ad e sh a scon t r ibu t edtoan und e r e s t im a t iono ff i r er i skan dal a cko fp r ev en t a t iv em e a su r e s . In2012 ,an oppo r tun i tyem e r g edth rou ghAbo r i g in a lA f f a i r sandNo r th e rnD ev e lopm en tC an ad a fo rc l im a t ech an g ead ap t a t ionp ro j e c t s .I tw a sund e rth i scon t e x tth a tfu r th e r inv e s t i g a t iono fw i ld f i r er i sk inth eTTTT w a s in i t i a t ed . W i thw i ld f i r eb e in g id en t i f i eda s ap r im a rycon c e rninth i sr e g ion ,ar e l i ab l e w aytoa s s e s sr e l a t iv ew i ld f i r eh a z a rdw a sn e ed ed .Su chatoo le x i s t ed–a l and s c ap e w i ld f i res imu l a to rc a l l edBu rn P3(wh e r e inP3s t and sfo r :p rob ab i l i ty ,p r ed i c t ion , andp l ann in g ) , d ev e lop edbyC an ad i anFo r e s tS e rv i c er e s e a r ch e r s .In t e r e s tinBu rnP3 i sg row in gandi t i san t i c ip a t edth a tth i ss tudy w i l lcon t r ibu t etoth eg row in g commun i tyo fBu rn P3r e s e a r ch e r s ,andh e lpr e in fo r c eth en e edfo rp ro a c t iv er a th e r th anpu r e lyr e a c t iv ew i ld f i r em an a g em en t . 1 .2Re sea r chOb je c t ive sandP ra c t i ca lApp l i ca t ion Th epu rpo s eo fth i sth e s i si stodo cum en tp ro j e c tsu c c e s s e s , andwh a th a s b e en l e a rn ed inmod e l l in gw i ld f i r ep rob ab i l i tyfo rth eTTTT. Th ech a l l en g eh a sb e en tor edu c ecomp l e x mod e lp ro c e s s e sandr e su l t s in tosom e th in gcoh e r en tandu s e fu l fo rcommun i typ l ann in g . 2 Th efo l low in gqu e s t ion sw e r eo f in t e r e s ttoth ecommun i tyo fT e s l in : 1 ) Howc anw i ld f i r er i sktoth ecommun i tyo fT e s l inando th e re co lo g i c a land cu l tu r a lv a lu e sb ea s s e s s ed inth eTTTT ? a t imp a c tw i l lc l im a t ech an g eh av eonfu tu r ew i ld f i r er i sk inth eTTTTand in 2 ) Wh th ecommun i tyo fT e s l in ? 3 ) Howc anth ecommun i ty m a x im i z eth ee co lo g i c a lb en e f i t so fw i ld f i r ewh i l ea l so m in im i z in gth ee conom i candso c i a l imp a c t s ? Twoov e r a r ch in gob j e c t iv e swe r e id en t i f i edbyth er e s e a r cht e am .Th ef i r s t ob j e c t iv ew a sth a tth er e s e a r chb er e l evan ttoth ecomm un i tyo fT e s l in. Th es e cond ob j e c t iv ew a stoe xp lo r ec l im a t ech an g e imp l i c a t ion sonw i ld f i r ebu rnp rob ab i l i ty in th eTTTT .W i ld f i r eb u rnp rob ab i l i ty mod e l s l ik eBu rnP3a l lowfo r mod e l l in go f c l im a t e ch an g ep ro j e c t ion s(W an ge ta l .2016 ) ,andsu i t ab i l i tycomp a r i son so f v a r iou st r e a tm en t ssu cha sfu e lb r e ak s(M i l l e re ta l .2008 ) .Pro j e c t edfu tu r ew e a th e r s c en a r io sd e r iv edf romG en e r a lC i r cu l a t ion Mod e l s(GCM s )w e r eu s edtomod e l c l im a t ech an g ee f f e c t sonbu rnp rob ab i l i ty ,p rov id in gar an g eo fpo s s ib i l i t i e sfo r con s id e r a t ion incommun i ty m an a g em e n t . 1 .3The s i sOu t l ine Th i sth e s i sp rov id e sal i t e r a tu r er ev i ew( Ch ap t e r2) ,wh i ch in c lud e sa b r i e f h is to ryo fw i ld f i r em an a g em en t ,c l im a t ech an g e imp l i c a t ion sonw i ld f i r eandan ov e rv i ewo fw i ld f i r e mod e l l in g .Ch ap t e r3ou t l in e sth enov e lapp ro a cht ak enby in s t i tu t ion a lr e s e a r ch e r s inp a r tn e r sh ipw i thth ecommun i tyo fT e s l into id en t i fy 3 p r io r i tyfo r e s tr i sk s ,anda s s e s sth ef e a s ib i l i tyo fu s in gBu rnP3inth es tudya r e a . Ch ap t e r4p rov id e sa mo r ed e t a i l edan a ly s i so f imp rov em en t sand r e f in em en to fth e wo rk in gBu rnP3mod e l tob e t t e ra s s e s sf i r eh a z a rd inth eTTTTin th econ t e x to f c l im a t ech an g e ;o u tpu tbu rnp rob ab i l i ty m ap s ,s tudyf ind in g s ,a lon gw i th mod e l l im i t a t ion sa r ed i s cu s s ed .Ch ap t e r5 summ a r i z e showth er e s e a r ch i su s e f u lfo rth e commun i tyo fT e s l inandp rov id e sr e comm end a t ion sonn e x ts t ep s . 4 Chap te r2 :L i te ra tu reRev iew 2 .1ThePa s t :H i s to ryo fAbo r ig ina lBu rn ingandthecon cep to fana tu ra lf i re reg ime I t i sw e l l e s t ab l i sh edth a ta bo r i g in a lu s eo ff i r eh ad imp l i c a t ion son l and m an a g em en ta tag lob a ls c a l e(Pyn e1997 ) .InNo r thAm e r i c anfo r e s t s ,th eop in ion th a tl and s c ap e sw e r e unmod i f i edandun spo i l edp r io rtoEu rope ancon t a c t i sa my th (Pyn e1997 ) .Th e r e i sev id en c efo rabo r i g in a lbu rn in g inth ebo r e a lfo r e s t so f no r th e rnA lb e r t a(L ew i sandF e r gu son1988 ) ,andA l a sk a(Lu t z1959 ). Th e r e i sa l so ev id en c efo rabo r i g in a lbu rn in g inB r i t i shCo lumb i a(P a rm in t e r1978 ;1991 ;1995 ) . R e tu rn in gtoan a tu r a lf i r er e g im ei sno ton lyd i f f i cu l ttor e con s t ru c t ,bu t n e g l e c t stoa cknow l ed g eth a thum an so f t en in f lu en c ef i r er e g im e s(Pyn e1997) . Hum an sh av eb e end e s c r ib eda sk ey s ton esp e c i e sby M ann(2005 ) inth econ t e x to f abo r i g in a lbu rn in gfo r l and m an a g em en tpu rpo s e sinNo r thAm e r i c ap r e c ed in g con t a c tbyEu rop e an s .V an W a gn e r(1983 )a r gu e sth a tany in f lu en c eth a th a sa c t ed lon genou ghfo rth ev e g e t a t iontocom e in toequ i l ib r iumw i th i tcou ldb econ s id e r ed n a tu r a l .Mo r e impo r t an t i scon s id e r in gwh a tv e g e t a t ionn a tu r a lf i r er e g im e swou ld h av ec r e a t edand in co rpo r a t in gth i sknow l ed g e in tocu r r en tm an a g em en tp l an s (V an W a gn e r1983 ) . 5 2 .2TheP re sen t :Eu roAme r i canW i ld f i reEx c lu s ion Th e r es t i l le x i s t sa tag lob a ls c a l e ,acu l tu r e inwh i chw i ld f i r e i scon s id e r eda d e s t ru c t iv e ,w a s t e fu lfo r c e, th a tn e ed stob er emov edf romth e l and s c ap e(Pyn e 1997) .I t i s l ik e lyth a tth i sm en t a l i ty i saho ldov e ro fEu rop e anco lon i a l i smwh e r e s e t t l e r sa t t emp t edto m ak es en s eo fw i ld f i r ep ron e l and s c ap e sbyr e c r e a t in gth e f am i l i a rcon t ro l l ed ,f i r ee x c lud ed l and s c ap e so fth eo ldcoun t ry ,an dwh e r eg row in g cond i t ion ssu i t edi t ,e s t ab l i sh in gth eEu rop e anfo r e s t ryp r a c t i c eo fs i lv i cu l tu r e(Pyn e , 2008 ) .D e sp i t ee f fo r t sto mod e rn i z esupp r e s s iono r g a n i z a t ion s ,fo r e s tp r a c t i c e sa r e s t i l lv e ry mu chs ep a r a t ef romw i ld f i r em an a g em en ta c ro s sC an ad a ,whi ch i sa lo s t oppo r tun i ty,andp e rp e tu a t e sg row in gr i sk (Pyn e2008 ) . Th e r e i s in c r e a s in gaw a r en e s so fth er i sk so f l iv in gw i th inw i ld f i r ed r iv en e co sy s t em s .B r i t i shCo lumb i ae xp e r i en c edth emo s td e s t ru c t iv ew i ld f i r es e a son in i t sh i s to ry ov e rth esumm e ro f2017int e rm so fa r e abu rn t (1 ,215 ,503h a ) ,w i th abou t$700 m i l l ionsp en t insupp r e s s ionandev a cu e ea id(D an i e l se ta l .2017 ). I nth e sp r in go f2016 ,th eHo r s eR iv e rW i ld f i r e , bu rn t589 ,000h a , in c lud in gal a r g epo r t ion o fFo r tM cMu r r ay, r e su l t in ginwh a t i scu r r en t lyth emo s te xp en s iv ed i s a s t e r in C an ad i anh i s to ry , int e rm so f in su r edd am a g e s,wh i cha r e e s t im a t eda t$ 3 .7b i l l ion (MNP2017 ) .A l soo fno t ea r eth eNo r thw e s tT e r r i to r i e sf i r e so f2014, wh i chbu rn ta to t a la r e ao f3 .4 m i l l ionh e c t a r e sand co s t$56 .1 m i l l ion( D ep a r tm en to f Env ironm en tandN a tu r a lR e sou r c e s2015 ) . Th eR i ch a rd sonF i r eo f2011bu rn t 700 ,000h aandd e sp i t eb e in gth e l a r g e s tA lb e r t aw i ld f i r es in c e1950 ,r e c e iv ed l e s s pub l i c i tyth anth econ cu r r en t lybu rn in gS l av eL ak ew i ld f i r e , wh i cha l thou gh cov e r in gon ly4 ,700h a, co s t$750 m i l l ion in in su r edd am a g e sdu etop ro x im i tyto 6 th etowno fS l av eL ak e(KPMG2012 ) . In2003 , BCe xp e r i en c edwh a tw a sa tth et im e anunp r e c ed en t edf i r es e a son,unu su a l du etoth eh i ghnumb e ro fu rb an in t e r f a c e f i r e s ,bu rn in gato t a lo f260 ,000h a ,co s t in gane s t im a t ed$700 m i l l ion,and fo r c in g th eev a cu a t iono f45 ,000p eop l e(F i lmon2004 ) . A sd e s t ru c t iv ea sr e c en tev en t sh av eb e en , i tm ayno tb eh e lp fu ltor e f e rto th e s eev en t sa sc a t a s t roph i cw i ld f i r e s ,b e c au s ew i ld f i r e i san a tu r a ld i s tu rb an c e , impo r t an tfo r e co lo g i c a lr en ew a l(Pyn e2008 ) .Ap r e f e r ab l et e rmadop t edf rom M eyne ta l .(2007 ) , andu s edh e r e indu eto i t sapp l i c ab i l i tytoth ebo r e a lfo r e s t s compo s in gth es tudya r e ao fth i sp ro j e c t ,i s l a r g e in f r equ e n tf i r e s(L IF s ) .A l thou gh L IF sa r eno ta l lth a tunp r e c ed en t ed, asho r tf i r er e co rd in gh i s to ry ,comb in edw i th in c r e a s in ghum anh ab i t a t io n inpy ro g en i cfo r e s t ed l and s c ap e s ,andqu i ck e r n ew s /m ed i acov e r a g eh av er e su l t edin cu r r en tw i ld f i r ea c t iv i tyh av in gg r e a t e r imp a c tandr e c e iv in gg r e a t e rpub l i c i ty (Tym s t r a2015 ) . Inadd i t iontoth er e c en t f i r e s inw e s t e rnC an ad a , i t i swo r thcon s id e r in gth eCh in ch a g af i r e s to rmo f1950 , wh i ch i ss t i l lth e l a r g e s ts in g l ere co rd edf i r e inNo r thAm e r i c anh i s to ry (bu rn in gan e s t im a t ed1 ,700 ,000h ao fno r th e rnBCandA lb e r t a ),d e sp i t e r e c e iv in gv e ry l i t t l e pub l i c i tydu eto i t sr emo t en e s sandth er edu c edcommun i c a t ionc ap a c i ty comm en su r a t ew i thth et im e p e r iod(Tym s t r a2015 ) . L IF sa r eno tan ewph enom enon ,bu tr e c en tf i r eev en t sm ayno tb een t i r e ly n a tu r a l, a st h a twou lden t a i lth e s eev en t sb e in gr emov edo fhum an in f lu en c e . W i l l i am s( 2013 )u r g es in s t e adth a tr e c en t l a r g ef i r e sb ev i ew edth rou ghth ef i l t e ro f cu r r en t l and m an a g em en tp r a c t i c e s .Aw i ld f i r ee x c lu s ionpo l i cya c ro s s mu cho f No r thAm e r i c ah a scon t r ibu t edtoin c r e a s edw i ld f i r er i sk , o f t en int and emw i th 7 fo r e s tm an a g em en tp r a c t i c e sth a t in c r e a s eth ef r equ en cyo fd en s e lysp a c edcon i f e r p l an t a t ion s(W i l l i am s2013 ) .Th ecommon in t e rp r e t a t ionh a sb e enth a tsu c h p r a c t i c e sh av ea l low edth ebu i ldupo ffo r e s tfu e l s ,sh i f t in gf r equ en tf i r er e g im e sto in f r equ en tf i r er e g im e s(P r i ch a rde ta l .2017 ) ,aph enom enon wh i ch i sp a r t i cu l a r ly t ru e inth et r ad i t ion a l lyop en c anopyfo r e s t so fth e in t e r io rRo cky Moun t a in s(K e an e e ta l .2002 ;D e l l a S a l ae ta l .2004 ) . Som er e c en tL IF sinsu chenv i ronm en t s cou ldthu s b ein t e rp r e t eda s a l t e r edf i r er e g im e sa t t emp t in gtor ev e r ttomo r ee co lo g i c a l ly s t ab l ef r equ en tf i r er e g im e s . No ton lyh a sapo l i cyo ff i r ee x c lu s ionb e ene xp en s iv eto en fo r c einth e s er e g ion s , i t i sa l soco s t ly i st e rm so fd am a g ewh enr e su l t in gand in ev i t ab ly mo r es ev e r ef i r e sdoo c cu r ,f i r e sth a th av eag r e a t e rpo t en t i a lto ov e rwh e lmin i t i a la t t a ck . Som eh av ea r gu edth a tt h ebu i ldupo ffu e li sl e s s app l i c ab l etoc lo s e dc anopybo r e a lfo r e s t sa sth e s efo r e s t sh av ea lw ay sb e en dom in a t edby in f r equ en tf i r e s( John sone ta l .2001 ) . How ev e r, th ecoun t e ra r gum en t h a sb e en m ad eth a tsu pp r e s s iondo e sh av ean imp a c tona r e abu rn ed inth ebo r e a l fo r e s t(Cumm in g2005 ) ,wh i chcou ld fo r e s e e ab ly in c r e a s ef i r epo t en t i a lth rou ghth e m e chan i smo fg r e a t e rfu e lcon t inu i tyr a th e rth anfu e lvo lum e . Th ef a i lu r eto id en t i fyw i ld f i r er i ski sasymp tomo f in t e r a c t in gpo l i cy sho r t com in g s ,andu l t im a t e lyth ef a i lu r etoch an g eth epub l i cp e r c ep t iono fw i ld f i r e (Pyn e2008 ) . Typ i c a l ly ,ind ep end en t and in t e rn a lgov e rnm en tr ev i ewr epo r t s ou t l in in gr e comm end a t ion sa r es t and a rd i s su ea f t e rfo r e s tf i r e sw i th l a r g eso c i a l imp a c t s ( D an i e l se ta l .2017 ;KPMG2017 , MNP2017 ;KPMG2012 ;D ep a r tm en to f Env ironm en tandN a tu r a lR e sou r c e s2015 ; F i lmon2004) , andc anb eh e lp fu l ,bu t con t a inco s t ly m i t i g a t ionop t ion sth a tt ak es i gn i f i c an tt im eandr e sou r c e sto 8 imp l em en t . Fo re x amp l e ,BCh a ssp en t$1 .82Bond i r e c tsupp r e s s ionco s t s inth e p a s td e c ad e(20062015 ) ,y e ton lysp en t$183Monp r ev en t a t iv ew i ld f i r e m an a g em en t(D an i e l se ta l .2017 ) ,th i sd e sp i t eth eev en t sandr e comm end a t ion s ou t l in ed inF i lmon(2004 )fo l low in gth e2003f i r e s to rm .Wh a t i sn e ed ed i sa pa r ad i gmsh i f tin m an a g em en tp r a c t i c e s ,a l low in g fo rp r ev en ta t i v em i t i g a t iontob e v a lu eda sequ a l lya sr e ac t iv er e spon s e . 2 .3TheFu tu re :C l ima teChangeImp l i ca t ion son W i ld f i re Hum ana c t iv i tys in c eth em idtw en t i e thc en tu ry i scon t r ibu t in gtocu r r en t ob s e rv edw a rm in gw i thac e r t a in tyo f95%( IPCC ,2013 ) .C l im a t ech an g e i s p r ed i c t edto in c r e a s ew i ld f i r ea c t iv i ty, r e su l t in ging r e a t e ra r e abu rn t ,bu ta l soa l a r g ed e g r e eo fv a r i ab i l i tyb e tw e enr e g ion s(F l ann i g ane ta l .2005 ,2009 a ,2009b , 2013 ) .No r th e rncommun i t i e sa r ee xp e c t edtoob s e rv e mo r er ap idch an g eand imp a c t sr e su l t in gf romc l im a t ech an g e , in c lud in g in c r e a s edw i ld f i r e . ( O gd enand Inn e s2008;K e l lye ta l .2013 ;P r i c ee ta l .2013 ) . A l thou gh i t i s impo s s ib l etoa t t r ibu t ean th ropo g en i cc l im a t ech an g etoa s in g l eL IF, i t i s wo r thcon s id e r in ghow mu chan th ropog en i cc l im a t ech an g e con t r ibu t e stoanev en t .S in c ew i ld f i r e sund e r gog row thonon lyal im i t ed numb e ro f i t ion s(Podu rand Wo t ton2011 ) ,th e in c r e a s in g d ay so fe x t r em ew e a th e rcond du r a t iono ft im e p e r iod so fcondu c iv ef i r ew e a th e rcou ldfo r e s e e ab lyr e su l t in in c r e a s edf i r ea c t iv i ty .F o re x amp l e ,f o l low in gth eFo r tM cMu r r ayf i r e ,andfo cu s in g onth ef i r er e g im eo fth a tr e g ion ,K i r chm e i e rYounge ta l .( 2017)e s t im a t e dth a t an th ropo g en i cr ad i a t iv efo r c in g(hum an c au s edc l im a t ech an g e ) , inadd i t ionto 9 n a tu r a lr ad i a t iv efo r c in gm e ch an i sm s , h av ein c r e a s edth e l ik e l ihoodo fe x t r em e w i ld f i r econdu c iv econd i t ion s( a sm e a su r edbyth eF i r eW e a th e rInd e x )byb e tw e en 1 .5–6t im e sabov ewh a twou ldh av eo c cu r r edund e rn a tu r a lr ad i a t iv efo r c in ga lon e. A s sum in gnoch an g e inth esp a t i a lp a t t e rn so f i gn i t ion sandth eav a i l ab i l i tyo f f l amm ab l efu e l s ,th ei n c r e a s in gf r equ en cyo fcondu c iv ef i r ew e a th e rdu r a t ion sh a s l ik e ly a l r e adyin f lu en c ed f i r eg row th , in t en s i ty , andr e su l t in ga r e abu rn t .Lon g e r du r a t ion so ff i r econdu c iv ew e a th e ra r ea l so mo r e l ik e lytor e su l tin th e in i t i a t iono f mu l t ip l ef i r e ss imu l t an eou s ly ,ev en t sc ap ab l eo fov e rwh e lmin g supp r e s s ionc ap a c i ty (Podu rand Wo t ton2010 ) .Ind e ed ,W i l l i am s(20 13 )no t eth a ts ev e r a l l a r g ew i ld f i r e s h av eo c cur r eda tt im e swh enn ewf i r e s t a r t ss t r e t ch edf i r e f i gh t in gc ap ab i l i t i e s . D i s a s t e r s ,o rfo cu s in gev en t s, c ana l lowpo l i cyw indow stoop enfo rsho r t p e r iod so ft im e inth ew ak eo fanev en t ,a l low in gaso lu t iontoan id en t i f i edp rob l em tob e imp l em en t edwh i l eth epo l i t i c a lw i l ltodosoe x i s t s(K in gdon1984 ) .Inth eo ry , r e c en te x t r em ew i ld f i r ea c t iv i ty i sano ppo r tun i tytop ropo s eb e t t e rw i ld f i r e m an a g em en tp r a c t i c e sandp rov id ef i r em an a g em en ta g en c i e sw i thth er e sou r c e s r equ i r edto in c r e a s ep r ev en t a t iv er i sk m i t i g a t ion .How ev e r , i th a sb e enfound th rou ghc a s es tud i e so ffo cu s in gev en t sth a tpo l i cyw indow sa r eno tau tom a t i c ou t com e s( So l e ck iand M i ch a e l s1994 ) .P eop l et endtoh av esho r tm emo r i e s ,an e x amp l eb e in ge x t r em ew e a th e rev en t s ,wh i cha l thou ghp rov id in gasub t l e in f lu en c e onpub l i cr e c ep t iv i tytoc l im a t ech an g ead ap t a t ionpo l i cy ,h av eon lysho r t l iv ed e f f e c t s(R aye ta l .2017 ) .I t i sunknownwh a te f f e c tcon s equ en t i a lf i r eev en t sw i l l h av eonp rovok in gpo s i t iv ech an g e sto m an a g em en tp r a c t i c e s . 10 2.4 W i ld f i re Mode l l ing 2 .4.1Ea r l ie ra t temp t sto mode lw i ld f i re Th ep r ed i c t iono fw i ld f i r e i so f in t e r es tbo thfo rop e r a t ion a lsupp r e s s ionand mo r er e c en t lytoa id inp ro a c t iv e n a tu r a lr e sou r c em an a g em en tp l ann in g. W i ld f i r e c anh av e l a r g e imp a c t sonp eop l e ,cu l tu r a lv a lu e s ,w i ld l i f eh ab i t a t ,w a t e randa i r qu a l i ty ,ju r i sd i c t ion a l g r e enhou s eg a sem i s s ion s ,a sw e l la sp rop e r tyandt imb e r v a lu e s .Th e r e i sa lon gh i s to ryo f mod e l l in gw i ld f i r e inf i r ep ron ecoun t r i e s , in c lud in g C an ad a ,th eUn i t edS t a t e s,andAu s t r a l i a . Mod e lcomp l e x i tyh a s in c r e a s edw i th adv an c e s incompu t e rt e chno lo gy . Wi ld f i r e mod e l l in g i sp e rh ap sb e s tthou gh to fa scon s i s t in go f ind iv idu a lsub mod e l s . Wi ld f i r esp r e adg iv enaknownpo in to f i gn i t ion i son ea sp e c tto w i ld f i r e mod e l l in gandwi ld f i r esp r e ad m od e l sc anb eb rok en in toth r e ec a t e go r i e s : th eo r e t i c a l ,s em i emp i r i c a landemp i r i c a l(P a s to re ta l .2003 ) . Th eo r e t i c a l mod e l s r e lyonund e r ly in gc a l cu l a t ion so ff lu iddyn am i c sandh e a tt r an s f e rv i ar ad i a t ion , wh i l eemp i r i c a l mod e l sa r eb a s edonr e a l wo r ldob s e rv a t iono ft e s tf i r e s, bo th n a tu r a lande xp e r im en t a l lyi gn i t ed(P a s to re ta l .2003 ) . Emp i r i c a lands em iemp i r i c a l mod e l sp rov id eane x c e l l en tb a s e l in e und e r s t and in go ff i r eb eh av iou r insp e c i f i cfu e ltyp e s ,andc anb ead ap t edfo ru s e in compu t e rs imu l a t ion mod e l s .Th ef i r s temp i r i c a lw i ld f i r esp r e admod e lw a s d ev e lop edby M cA r thu r(1967 )inAu s t r a l i a .Inth eU SA ,Ro th e rm e ld ev e lop eda s em i emp i r i c a lsp r e admod e ls t a r t in gin1972th a t i s s t i l linu s etod ay(Ro th e rm e l 1991 ).C an ad ad ev e lop ed i t sownv e r s iono fanemp i r i c a l sp r e admod e lw i thth eF i r e 11 B eh av iou rPr ed i c t ion(FBP )S ys t em ,wh i ch h a sb e enad ap t edfo ru s ea l lov e rth e wo r ld(Fo r e s t ryC an ad aF i r eD an g e rG roup1992 ) . 2 .4 .2F i reBehav iou rP red i c t ionSy s tem Th eFBPSy s t emi sasub compon en to fth eC an ad i anFo r e s tF i r eD an g e r R a t in gSy s t em(CFFDR S ) .Th ef i r s tm a jo rsub sy s t emo fth eCFFDR Sw asth eF i r e W e a th e rInd e x(FW I )Sy s t em in1970(Fo r e s t ryC an ad aF i r eD an g e rG roup1992) . Th eFW ISy s t emcon s i s t so fth r e efu e l mo i s tu r ecod esandth r e ef i r eb eh av iou r ind i c e s c a l cu l a t edd a i lydu r in gf i r es e a sonb a s edonw e a th e rcond i t ion s(Wo t ton 2009) .Th efu e l mo i s tu r ecod e scon s i s to fth eF in eFu e l Mo i s tu r eCod e(FFMC ),a m e a su r eo f su r f a c efu e lmo i s tu r e,th eDu f f Mo i s tu r eCod e(DMC ) ,a m e a su r eo f in t e rm ed i a t eso i ld ep thfu e l mo i s tu r e ,andth eD rou gh tCod e(DC ) ,a m e a su r eo f d e ep e rso i lfu e lmo i s tu r e. Th efu e l mo i s tu r ecod e sa l lowfo rth ec a l cu l a t iono fth e f i r eb eh av iou r ind i c e s .Bu i ldUpInd e x(BU I) i sc a l cu l a t edf romFFMCandDMCand i s afu e lcon sump t ion ind i c a to r ,wh i l eth eIn i t i a lSp r e adInd e x( I S I )i sc a l cu l a t edf rom DMCandDC ,andi s ar a t eo fsp r e ad ind i c a to r .Th eI S IandDMCa r eu s edtoc a l cu l a t e th ecumu l a t iv eFW I ,wh i ch i sa m e a su r eo fpo t en t i a lf i r e in t en s i ty .Th eFW ISy s t em r ep r e s en t sth e mo s tb a s i cp r in c ip l eo ff i r eb eh av iou r ,th a tf i r eb eh av iou r i s p ropo r t ion a ltoth eamoun to fmo i s tu r ep r e s en t infu e l s(V an W a gn e r1998 ) . Th eFBPSy s t ems t a r t edw i thd ev e lopm en to fr e g ion a lf i r eb eh av iou r in d e x e s d e s i gn edtoa idth eFW ISy s t em, andthu sth e s etwocompon en t scomb in edfo rm ed th ef i r s tn a t ion a lf i r ed an g e rr a t in gsy s t em(Fo r e s t ryC an ad aF i r eD an g e rG roup 1992 ) .R ev i s iono fth eFBPSy s t emcon t inu edth rou ghou tth e1980 s, cu lm in a t in gin 12 th ecu r r en tv e r s ion ,wh i chcon t a in s16s t and a rdfu e ltyp e s(T ab l e2 .1 ) .Th eFBP Sy s t emfu e ltyp e sa r ehomo g enou sa r r an g em en t so ffu e l , id en t i f i ab l ebysp e c i e s , s t ru c tu r e ,d en s i ty , anda g e ,anda r ethu squ a l i t a t iv er a th e rth anqu an t i t a t iv e (Fo r e s t ryC an ad a ,F i r eD an g e rG roup1992 ) .Fo re a chfu e ltyp e ,qu an t i t a t iv ebu rn in g ch a r a c t e r i s t i c sd e r iv edf rombo thob s e rv edande xp e r im en t a lbu rn s , p rov id e e s t im a t e so fsp r e adr a t e ,fu e lcon sump t ion ,h e adf i r e in t en s i ty ,andf i r ed e s c r ip t ion (Fo r e s t ryC an ad a ,F i r eD an g e rG roup1992 ) . Th eFBPSy s t emfu e ltyp e s in c lud e c a t e go r i z a t ion sfo rth e mo s tcommonbo r e a lfo r e s ttyp e sand in c lud econ i f e r(C ) , d e c iduou s(D ) ,s l a sh( S ) ,op en(O ) ,a nd m i x edwoodfu e l s(M ;T ab l e2 .1) .O fp a r t i cu l a r in t e r e s tfo rth ep ro j e c ts tudya r e aa r eth eC2(Bo r e a lSp ru c e ) , andC3(M a tu r eP in e ) fu e ltyp e s ,bo tho fwh i chh av ed en s e lysp a c eds t ru c tu r e ,and , e sp e c i a l ly inth ec a s eo f C2 ,a r ec ap ab l eo fsup po r t in ge x t r em ef i r eb eh av iou r . 13 Tab le2 .1.Canad ianF i reBehav iou rP red ic t ion(FBP )Sys temFue lTypes Fue lCode Fue lDesc r ip t ion C1 Sp ruce–L ichen Wood land C2 Bo rea lSp ruce C3 Ma tu reJacko rLodgepo leP ine C4 Imma tu reJacko rLodgepo leP ine C5 Redand Wh i teP ine C6 Con i fe rP lan ta t ion C7 Ponde rosaP ine–Doug lasF i r D1 Lea f lessAspen S1 Jacko rLodgepo leP ineS lash S2 Wh i teSp ruce –Ba lsamS lash S3 Coas ta lCeda r–Hem lock–Doug lasF i rS lash O1 G rass M1 Bo rea lM ixedwood –Lea f less M2 Bo rea lM ixedwood–G reen M3 DeadBa lsamF i rM ixedwood–Lea f less M4 DeadBa lsamF i rM ixedwood–G reen 2 .4.3 W i ld f i reS imu la t ion Mode l s Adv an c e s incompu t e rt e chno lo gyh av e imp rov edth ec ap ab i l i tyo fw i ld f i r e mod e l l in g .W i ld f i r es imu l a t ion mod e l sth a tcou lds imu l a t ew i ld f i r e sona l and s c ap e b a s edonfu e l s ,topo g r aphy ,w e a th e randund e r ly in gth eo r e t i c a lo remp i r i c a lsp r e ad r a t e mod e l sw e r eon eo fth ee a r lyd ev e lopm en t s.E a r lys imu l a t ion mod e l sr e f l e c t ed th et e chno lo gycon s t r a in t so fth et im e , andw e r el im i t edto mod e l l in gsm a l lf i r e s( e . g . Kou r t ze ta l .1971 ;1977 ) .G eo g r aph i cIn fo rm a t ionSy s t em s(G I S )a l low edfu r th e r d iv e r s i f i c a t iono f mod el l in g , a lb e i t ind i r e c t ly .G I Sov e r l ay mod e l sw i th mu l t ip l e w e i gh t ed inpu t scou ldb ec r e a t edb a s edone xp e r top in ionand in co rpo r a t edto id en t i fyw i ld f i r er i sk( e . g .Chuv i e coandCon g a l ton1989 ) .Su chov e r l ay mod e l ss t i l l h av ep r a c t i c a lapp l i c a t ion s ine f f ec t iv ew i ld f i r eu rb an in t e r f a c ep l ann in g( e . g .Oh l son e ta l .2002 ;H awk e sandB e ck1997 ;H a i gh te ta l .2004 ) . W i ld f i r es imu l a t ion mod e l s incu r r en tr ev i s ion sa r eg en e r a l ly mo r ea c cu r a t e th anov e r l ayan a ly s e sa lon e ,bu tr equ i r eg r e a t e rcompu t a t ion a lr e sou r c e s(F a r r i se t 14 a l .1999 ) .W i thadv an c e s incompu t e rp ro c e s s in gpow e rhow ev e r ,th ea r gum en t s o r i g in a l ly m ad ea g ain s ts imu l a t ion mod e l s i sno lon g e ra s mu cho fa l im i t a t ion .To mod e lw i ld f i r e inh e t e ro g en eou sfu e l s ,s imu l a t ion mod e l su t i l i z ec e l lu l a r p rop a g a t iont e chn iqu e s, o rHuy g en sw av ep rop a g a t ionfo rmu l a .E x amp l e so f mod e rnw i ld f i r es imu l a to r s in c lud eth eAu s t r al i anS i ro f i r e(Co l em anandSu l l iv an 1996 ) ,th eU SAd ev e lop edF a r s i t e(F inn ey2004) ,andth eC an ad i anP rom e th eu s (Tym s t r ae ta l .2010 ) .A l lth r e eo fth e s es imu l a t ion mod e l sr e lyonHuy g en sw av e p rop a g a t ionfo rmu l atop r ed i c tsp r e ad . 2 .4.4 P rome theu s P rome th eu sd ev e lopm en tw a s in i t i a t ed in1999andin co rpo r a t e sth eFBP S y s t em ’ s16fu e ltyp e sanda s so c i a t edbu rn in gch a r a c t e r i s t i c s,bu te xp and sonth e av a i l ab l efu e ltyp e sto in c lud e mo r em i x edwoodcomb in a t ion s ,anddu a l fu e ltyp e s th a tr e f l e c t l e a f ou to fd ec iduou sfu e lcomp l e x e s( Tym s t r ae ta l .2010 ). P rom e th eu s c anb eu s edto mod e lpo t en t i a lw i ld f i r eg row thi f an i gn i t ionpo in t i sknown . Topo g r aphy ,w e a th e r, andFBPSy s t emfu e ltyp e sa r einpu t s tof i r eg row th ,andth e r e su l ti sap r ed i c t iv ef i r ep e r im e t e rfo rad e s i r edt im e f r am e .P rom e th eu sc anb e u s ed inw i ld f i r er e spon s es i tu a t ionstoe s t im a t eg row thandb e t t e rd i r e c t supp r e s s ionr e spon s e .I gn i t ion lo c a t ion smu s tb esp e c i f i edbyth eu s e ronac a s eby c a s eb a s i sand mu l t ip l ef i r e sc anno tb e mod e l ed inaw a ywh i cha l low sp r ed i c t iono f l and s c ap e l ev e lr e l a t iv ebu rnp rob ab i l i ty ,m ak in gP rom e th eu s g e a r edfo r op e r a t ion a lpu rpo s e s( i . e .supp r e s s ion ). P rom e th eu si sbu i l ta sacommonob j e c t mod e l (COM ) , a l low in g in t e g r a t edu s eo f ind ividu a lP rom e th eu scompon en t s in 15 o th e rso f tw a r ep ro g r am s(Tym s t r ae ta l . 2010 ) .Bu rnP3 i saso f tw a r ep ro g r amth a t u t i l i z e sth eund e r ly in gP rom e th eu sCOMtop r ed i c t l and s c ap e l ev e lw i ld f i r ebu rn p rob ab i l i ty . 2. 4 .5Bu rnP3Ba ckg roundandInpu t s Comp r eh en s iv e, sp a t i a l lye xp l i c i tw i ld f i r ed a t ab a s e sr a r e lysp an mo r eth ana c en tu ry ,m ak in g i t impo s s ib l etoob t a inr e l i ab l ee s t im a t e so fr e l a t iv ef i r e l ik e l ihood a tanypo in tona l and s c ap e .Toadd r e s sth i s l im i t a t ion , mod e l sth a ts imu l a t eth e i gn i t ionandsp r e ado f mu l t ip l eind iv idu a lf i r e s ov e r mu l t ip l ebu rn in g i t e r a t ion s (bu rn in gy e a r s )w e r ec r e a t ed .Bu rnP3 i saMon t eC a r los imu l a to r , andov e r com e s sho r t com in g s inth eob s e rv edd a t abyu s in gr epe t i t iontoav e r a g em anyfu tu r e h i s to r i e s,th e r ebya t t emp t in gto i n co rpo r a t eth er an g eo fv a r i ab i l i tyinh e r en t ina n a tu r a ld i s tu rb an c er e g im etop r ed i c tfu tu r ebu rnp rob ab i l i ty(BP )fo rana r e ao f in t e r e s t . Sp a t i a l mod e l inpu t s in c lud efu e l s ,e l ev a t ion ,and i gn i t ionpo t en t i a l ,wh i l e a sp a t i a l inpu t sd e r iv edf romth eh i s t o r i cf i r er e co rd , in c lud eth enumb e ro ff i r e sp e r y e a r ,s e a son ,andc au s eo fbu rn in g ,andth enumb e ro fd ay so ff i r esp r e ad . Bu rnP3 i sanop ensou r c eso f tw a r ep a ck a g eo r i g in a l lyd e s i gn edbyth e C an ad i anFo r e s tS e rv i c e(CF S ) inco l l abo r a t ionw i thS a sk a t ch e w anEnv i ronm en t F i r eM an a g em en tA g en cytoh e lpw i thst r a t e g i c l and u s ep l ann in g(P a ri s i ene ta l . 2005 ) .Bu rnP3u s e sth eP rom e th eu sf i r eg row tha l go r i thmtoau tom a t emu l t ip l e s imu l a t edf i r e s . InBu rn P3, i t e r a t ion sa r er ep e a t so f on ebu rn in gs e a son, in co rpo r a t in gs to ch a s t i c inpu t sr ep r e s en t in gv a r i ab i l i ty inth eknownf i r e d i s tu rb an c er e g im e(Bu rn P3U s e r ’ sm anu a l2016) . Bys imu l a t in gabu rn in gy e a r 16 th rou gh mu l t ip l e i t e r a t ion s ,th eimp a c to fth eup com in gf i r es e a son i sp r ed i c t ed mu l t ip l et im e s ,w i th r e g ion so fmo r ef r equ en tmod e l l ed f i r e sr ep r e s en t in gag r e a t e r f i r eh a z a rd .Th e bu rnp rob ab i l i tyo fe a chp i x e l i scompu t edbyc a l cu l a t in gth e numb e ro ft im e s i tbu rnsr e l a t iv etoth eto t a lnumb e ro f i t e r a t ion s(bu rn in gy e a r s ) . U s in gr ep e t i t ion(m any i t e ra t ion sand mu l t ip l ef i r e sw i th ine a ch i t e r a t ion ) , Bu rnP3c anapp ro x im a t el and s c ap e bu rnp rob ab i l i ty(P ar i s i ene ta l .2012 ) .A r e a s th a twou ldb ep r ed i c t edtoh av ea lowp rob ab i l i tyo fw i ld f i r e in i so l a t ion m ayno tb e immun ef rombu rn in g i fsu r round edby n e i ghbo r in gf e a tu r e sw i thch a r a c t e r i s t i c s th a ta r e mo r esu s c ep t ib l etof i r e .Th e r e fo r e ,Bu rnP3 i sd ep end en toninpu t sth a t a c cu r a t e lyr e f l e c tth eknownf i r er e g im e(P a r i s i ene ta l2012 ) . 17 Chap te r3 :Commun i tyD i re c tedRe sea r chinTe s l in 3 .1In t rodu c t ion T e s l in i sasm a l lcommun i ty insou th c en t r a lYukon ,w i thapopu l a t iono f app ro x im a t e ly450p eop l e ,o fwh i chabou t75%a r eT l in g i tF i r s tN a t ion.Th eT l in g i t p eop l e mov ed inl andf romth eco a s t o fA l a sk adu r in gth e18thc en tu rytot r apfo rfu r s , ande x c e l l en tt r av e lrou t e sandaw e a l tho fn a tu r a lr e sou r c e s l edtoth e e s t ab l i shm en to ft r ad in gpo s t s .W i thth econ s t ru c t iono fth eA l a sk ah i ghw ay in1942 , T e s l inb e c am eap e rm an en ts e t t l em en t.Th e T e s l inT l in g i tCoun c i ls i gn edth e i rf in a l l andc l a ima g r e em en t in1993( T e s l inS t r a t e g i cFo r e s tM an a g em en tP l an2007 ). Th e T e s l inR en ew ab l eR e sou r c eCoun c i l(TRRC )i sth evo i c efo r lo c a lcon c e rn s in commun i c a t ionw i tht e r r i to r i a landf ed e r a lgov e rnm en t s , andl ik eo th e r R en ew ab l e R e sou r c eCoun c i l sinYukon , i s a l and m an a g em en t adv i so rybodycomp r i s edo fbo th gov e rnm en tandcommun i typ a r t i c ip an t s ,e s t ab l i sh eda f t e rth eT e s l inT l in g i tCoun c i l ( TTC)f in a l i z edth e i r l andc l a im . Tob em e an in g fu l ,commun i tyb a s edr e s e a r chn e ed stob er e l ev an t ,u s e fu l , andr i go rou s .O f t enr e s e a r chp r io r i t i z edfo rr i go r i sad ap t edt of i tacommun i ty r a th e rth anb e g inn in gw i thana s s e s sm e n to fr e l ev an c e. Le g a c i e so fin s t i tu t ion a l r e s e a r chinth ecommun i tyo fT e s l in h av eb e en m i x ed, anda tt im e scon f l i c t ed ,wh i ch r e f l e c t sd i f f e r en tp e r c ept ion s ,p r io r i t i e sandob j e c t iv e s ,bo thw i th inth ecommun i ty anda l sob e tw e enth ecommun i tyand in s t i tu t ion a lp a r tn e r s . On eo fth e mo r enov e la sp e c t so fth i sp ro j e c tw a sth ep a r tn e r sh ipb e tw e en TTC,Un iv e r s i tyo fNo r th e rnB r i t i shCo lumb i a ,andGov e rnm en to fYukon r e s e a r ch e r stop rov id er e l ev an tandu s e fu lou t com e stosuppo r ts t r a t e g i c 18 commun i typ l ann in g .Th i sp ro j e c tw a sfound edonth eco r ep r in c ip l eo fcommun i tyid en t i f i ed fo r e s tr i skinr e l a t iontoc l im a t ech an g e ,o fwh i chw i ld f i r eh a z a rdem e r g ed a sap r im a rycon c e rn .T imkoe ta l .(2015 )e xp lo r edcommun i typ e r c ep t ion sand imp l i c a t ion so fw i ld f i r er i skandcon s id e r edwh a t m i t i g a t ionand ad ap t a t ion s t r a t e g i e sm i gh tb eapp rop r i a t eandf e a s ib l e inth eTTTT .Th i s l edtoaf e a s ib i l i ty s t udytoa s s e s sth eu t il i tyo fa t e chn i c a ltoo l(Bu rn P3 )toa s s e s sw i ld f i r eh a z a rdand m an a g em en top t ion s.A sar e su l t , fo r e s tfu e landw i ld f i r ep rob ab i l i tyou tpu t sh av e b e com eafound a t ionfo rin t e g r a t ed commun i ty l and m an a g em en tp l ann in g. D e sp i t e c l e a rw i ld f i r eh a z a rd m app in g,th e r ea r esom e ju r i sd i c t ion a lch a l l en g e s ,andb e c au s e th ep a r tn e r sh ipi s w i thYukonGov e rnm en t, th ep ro j e c t i s l im i t edto look in ga t qu e s t ion so fr i skand m i t i g a t ionw i th inth eYukonpo r t iono fth eTTTT .Th rou ghou t th ep ro j e c t ,t r ad i t ion a land lo c a lknow l ed g ew e r econ t r ibu t edbybo thT l in g i tand nonT l in g i tcommun i ty m emb e r swhow e r eknow l ed g e ab l eabou tl and m an a g em en t andw i ld f i r er i skinth e TTTT. T e chn i c a le xp e r t i s esuppo r t edlo c a landt r ad i t ion a l know l ed g e, a l low in g fo rcommun i tyempow e rm en tandc ap a c i tybu i ld in g suppo r t ed by in s t i tu t ion a lr e sou r c e s . 3 .2Me thod s Anund e r s t and in go fth eso c ioe co lo g i c a lsy s t emw a sfound a t ion a l inth i s p ro j e c t .A lon gw i thas tudya r e ad e s c r ip t ion inth econ t e x to fenv ironm en t a land cu l tu r a le l em en t s ,t wocompon en t stoth i scommun i ty d i r e c t edr e s e a r cha r e d i s cu s s edh e r e in:1 )Th e id en t i f i c a t iono fp r io r i tyfo r e s tr i sk s ,and2 )a f e a s ib i l i ty s tudyu s in gBu rn P3 ,a l and s c ap el ev e lw i ld f i r es imu l a to r . 19 3 .2 .1S tudyA rea Th eT e s l inT l in g i tt r ad i t ion a lt e r r i to ry in c lud e sbo thpo r t ion so fYukon T e r r i to ryandB r i t i shCo lumb i a(F i gu r e3 .1 ) ,andf a l l sw i th inth eBo r e a lCo rd i l l e r a e co zon eo fC an ad a ,wh i ch i sana r e ach a r a c t e r i z edbyco ldw in t e r sandsho r tw a rm summ e r s(E SWG1995 ) .E co r e g ion so fth eBo r e a lCo rd i l l e r ae co zon econ t a in ed in th es tudya r e a in c lud eYukonSou th e rnL ak e s ,P e l ly Moun t a in s ,andBo r e a l Moun t a in sandP l a t e au s(T e s l inFo r es tM an a g em en tP l ann in gT e am2007 ) .A c ro s s th e s ee co r e g ion sbo r e a lfo r e s tcov e rcon s i s t so fb l a cksp ru c e( P i c eama r iana) ,wh i t e sp ru c e( P i c eag lau ca) , lod g epo l ep in e ( P inu scon to r ta) ,and t r emb l in ga sp en ( Popu lu st r emu lo id e s; E SWG1995 ) .Th e l and s c ap ew a sh e av i ly in f lu en c edby g l a c i a t ion ,w i thth eCo rd i l l e r an i c esh e e tr e t r e a t in gabou t10 ,000y e a r sa go ,and l e av in g lon gn a r row l ak e s ,round edh i l l s ,and mod e r a t e moun t a in s(T e s l inFo r e s t M an a g em en tP l ann in gT e am2007 ) . W i th inth eTTTT ,th eT e s l inS t r a t e g i cFo r e s tM an a g em en tP l an( SFMP ) i s app l i c ab l etoon lytho s e l and sth a ta r ew i th inYukonanddono tov e r l apw i th n e i ghbo r in gF i r s tN a t ion s(T e s l inFo r es tM an a g em en tP l ann in gT e am2007 ) .Th e SFMPcon s i s t so f15 l and s c ap eun i t s ,e a cho fwh i ch i s id en t i f i eda sh av in g low , m ed ium ,o rh i gh l ev e l so fcommun i tya c c ep t ab i l i tytofo r e s ta c t iv i ty(F i gu r e3 .1 ; T e s l inFo r e s tM an a g em en tP l ann in gT e am2007 ) . 20 Figu re3 . 1:P ro jec ts tudya reaistheTes l inT l ing i tT rad i t iona lTe r r i to ry(TTTT ) .TheTes l in S t ra teg icFo res t Managemen tP lan( SFMP)focusesonthepo r t iono ftheTTTTtha tiscon ta ined inYukonanddoesno tsha reove r lapw i thne ighbo r ingF i rs tNa t ions,andiden t i f ies15landscape un i ts,wh icha reca tego r izedbytheleve lo fcommun i tyaccep tancetofo res tac t iv i ty :low , med ium , o rh igh .No tetheB igSa lmonlandscapeun i twasiden t i f iedashav ingno me rchan tab let imbe rby theSFMP ,andwasthusexc ludedf romtheca tego r iza t iono fcommun i tyaccep tancetofo res t ac t iv i ty . Th eT e s l inT l in g i tp eop l ea r eh i gh lyd ep end en tonth e i rn a tu r a lenv i ronm en t , andt r ad i t ion a lsub s i s t en c ehun t in g ,f i sh in gandg a th e r in gr em a inan impo r t an tp a r t o fth eT e s l in l i f e .Th e r ea r er e g ion sth a tr equ i r esp e c i a lcon s id e r a t ion , in c lud in g e x c ep t ion a lw i ld l i f eh ab i t a tanda r ch a eo lo g i c a ls i t e s(T e s l inFo r e s tM an a g em en t P l ann in gT e am2007 ) .A lon gw i thasub s i s t en c e l i f e s ty l e ,add i t ion a lfo rm so f e conom i cr ev enu eh av eem e r g ed i nth e l a s t50y e a r s ,w i thtou r i sm ,s e rv i c e 21 bu s in e s s e s, andgov e rnm en tp rov id in goppo r tun i t i e sfo r lo c a lp eop l e .Th e r e i s cu r r en t lynocomm e r c i a lfo r e s t rys e c to r .H ow ev e r, an ewb io en e r gy in i t i a t iv e i snow op e r a t ion a l ,w i thwoodch ip sf e ed in gabo i l e rth a tp rov id e sr ad i an th e a tfo rpub l i c bu i ld in g sando f f i c e s inth ecommun i ty .Add i t ion a l ly ,th e r e i ssom e in t e r e s t inr e e s t ab l i sh in galo c a l lyruns awm i l l top rov id esm a l l s c a l er e sou r c ed ev e lopm en tth a t wou ldsuppo r tmu l t ip l ev a lu e s , in clud in gp e rm an en tsk i l l ed job sandanadd i t ion a l m e an s tof a c i l i t a t es t r a t e g i cfu e lr edu c t ion .Any l and m an a g em en t inTTTT n e ed sto c a r e fu l lycon s id e rth ev a lu e s id en t i f i ed inth eSFMPa saf i r s ts t ep ,w i thcon s en su s andcoo rd in a t ionb e tw e engov e rnm en t s(TTCandYukon )ona l lcom an a g ed(nons e t t l em en t ) l and . Cu r r en t ly ,th ecommun i ty i sen g a g ed inacon s en su sbu i ld in g p ro c e s sonhowto l inkt imb e rsupp lytos t r a t e g i cfu e lr edu c t ionth a t in t e g r a t e sth e cu l tu r a l ,e co lo g i c a l ,ande conom i cv a lu e sr ep r e s en t ed inth ecommun i ty . Th efu e l andw i ld f i r ep rob ab i l i tyou tpu t sg en e r a t ed inth i sp ro j e c tp rov id efound a t ion a l in fo rm a t ion inth i sp ro c e s s . Th en a tu r a lf i r er e g im efo rth es tudya r e acon s i s t so f l a r g ebu tr e l a t iv e ly in f r equ en ts t and r ep l a c in gf i r e s(T e s l inFo r e s tM an a g em en tP l ann in gT e am2007 ) . Inth ebo r e a lfo r e s t s ,h i ghfu e l mo i s tu r er a th e rth anfu e lamoun t l im i t sth e o c cu r r en c eo f l a r g e in f r equ en tf i r e s(L IF s ;M eyne ta l .2007 ) .A1943fo r e s t r e conn a i s s an c esu rv ey id en t i f i edev id en c eo fm a jo rf i r eev en t sinth e TTTTinth e 1870 sand in1917(T e s l inFo r e s tM an a g em en tP l ann in gT e am2007 ) .D e t a i l edf i r e r e co rd sb e g an inYukon inth e1940 s ,and l a r g ef i r e sw e r edo cum en t edinth es tudy a r e a inth e1950 s ,a ss e eninth eC an ad i anN a t ion a lF i r eD a t ab a s e(F i gu r e 3 .2 ) . 22 Al a cko f l a r g ef i r e s i nth es tudya r e a inr e c en td e c ad e s,andth er e su l t in gfu e l bu i ldupc anc r e a t eanund e r e s t im a t iono ff i r er i sk inth ecommun i ty .Th ef i r ecy c l e ( th eamoun to ft im er equ i r edfo rth een t i r es tudya r e atobu rn )fo rth eTTTT i s app ro x im a t e ly290y e a r s ,wh i ch i s lon g e rth anc en t r a lYuko n ,wh i ch i se s t im a t edto b eabou t100y e a r s(T e s l inFo r e s tM an a g em en tP l ann in gTe am2007 ) .Th i s i s e sp e c i a l lyno t i c e ab l e inF i gu r e3 .2 ,wh i chov e r l ay sth eHomo g enou sF i r eR e g im e (HFR )zon e sd ev e lop edbyBou l an g e re ta l .(2012 )w i thh i s to r i cf i r epo ly g on s , suppo r t in gth eob s e rv a t ionth a tth eTTTTh a sa mu ch low e rf r equ en cyo fw i ld f i r e th ansou thw e s tYukon .Th i sf i t sw i thknow l ed g eo fa i rm a s sc i r cu l a t ion inth i sp a r t o fth ewo r ld ,w i thc en t r a lYukonb e in g in f lu en c edbyupp e rr id g e so fth eA l a sk a in t e r io randh av in g mo r ew a rm /d ryd ay sdu etoth e in f lu en c eo fth eT in t in aT r en ch , wh i l eT e s l in insou th c en t r a lYukonr e c e iv e sp a c i f i cs to rmsy s t em swh i cht r a ck th rou ghno r th e rnBC(M i ch a e lSm i th ,p e r son a lcommun i c a t ion ) .Sou thw e s tYukon thu se xp e r i en c e s mo r ef r equ en tsm a l l e rf i r e s ,wh i l eth eTTTT inth eP a c i f i cHFR zon eh a s l e s sf r equ en tf i r e s ,y e tsuppo r t sth epo t en t i a lfo ro c c a s ion a l l a r g ef i r e s du r in gp e r iod so fw a rm /d ryw e a th e r ,ak ey in s i gh tfo rth eTTTT int e rm so f s t r a t e g i cp l ann in g . 23 F igu re3 .2:S tudya reafi reh is to ry(CNFDBpo lygons>10hafo r1946–2015 )c lass i f iedby decadeandsupe r imposedove rtheHomogenousF i reReg ime(HFR)zonesdeve lopedby Bou lange re ta l .(2012 ).T heTTTT ,wh ichfa l lsp r ima r i lyw i th inthePac i f icHFR,showsare la t ive lacko frecen tw i ld f i reac t iv i tycompa redtothe mo ref requen tf i resreco rdedintheSou thwes t YukonHFR. 24 3 .2 .2I den t i fy ingp r io r i tyfo re s tr i sk s S t a r t i n g in2012 , in i t i a ld i s cu s s ion sonfo r e s tr i sk s inth econ t e x to ffu tu r e c l im a t ech an g ew e r ein i t i a t ed b e tw e en in s t i tu t ion a lr e s e a r ch e r sandth eTRRC , id en t i fy in gp r im a ryanda s so c i a t edr i sk s . In t e rv i ew sw i th25k eyknow l ed g eho ld e r s inth ecommun i ty w e r econdu c t edinJun eandJu lyo f 2013,as t epp ropo s edby TRRCfo rth epu rpo s eo fcon f i rm in gandc l a r i fy in gth e in i t i a l id en t i f i c a t iono fr i sk s . P a r t i c ip an t sw e r es e l e c t ednonr andom ly(nom in a t edbyth eTRRC )b a s edonth e i r lon g t e rminvo lv em en t onth e l andb a s e, andth e i re xp e r t i s eandkn ow l ed g eabou t lo c a l fo r e s t s ,w e a th e rt r end s ,andfo r e s t f i r er i sk .R e spond en t s in c lud ed17 T l in g i t p a r t i c ip an t sande i gh tnonT l in g i tp a r t i c ip an t swhow e r ea c t iv eonth e l and ,and invo lv ed inhun t in g , t r app in g ,g a th e r in g ,andf i r ewoodcu t t in gamon go th e rp u r su i t s (T imkoe ta l .2015 ) .Th i r t e eno fth eT l in g i tr e spond en t sw e r eov e rth ea g eo f65 ,th e a g ea twh i chan ind iv idu a l i scon s id e r edane ld e rbyth eTTC ;a ssu chth e s e p a r t i c ip an t sw e r er e co gn i z edknow l ed g eho ld e r son lo c a lfo r e s tch an g e sov e rth e i r l i f e t im e s(T imkoe ta l .2015 ) . Acommun i tyop enhou s e inNov emb e r2013w a sh e ldtosumm a r i z e in t e rv i ewr e su l t s andp rov id eo ppo r tun i tyfo rb ro ad e rcommun i tyinpu t (T imkoe t a l .2015 ) .W i thth econ f i rm a t ion o fw i ld f i r er i skcon c e rn sf romth e in t e rv i ewp ro c e s s , aW i ld f i r eR i sk M i t i g a t ion Wo rk in gG roup(WRMG )w a s in i t i a t edf romcommun i ty m emb e r sandth eTRRCtoh e lp in fo rmw i ld f i r er i skand id en t i fy in fo rm a t iong ap s . 25 3 .2 .3Fea s ib i l i tya s se s smen to fBu rnP3to mode lw i ld f i reha za rd Th e id en t i f i c a t iono fw i ld f i r er i skw a sac a t a ly s tfo rth e in i t i a t iono fa f e a s ib i l i tya s s e s sm en tu s i n gth et e chn i c a ltoo lBu rnP3(P rob ab i l i ty ,P r ed i c t ion ,and Pl ann in g ) toa s s e s sth i sr i sk .H a l l(2014 )p rov id e sth ep ro c e s sund e r t ak endu r in g th ef e a s ib i l i tys tudytod ev e lopawo rk in gBu rnP3 mod e lfo rth eTTTT .Th e f e a s ib i l i tya s s e s sm en t id en t i f i edsp e c i f i c inpu t sth a tn e ed edr e f in em en t inth ef in a l mod e ltob e t t e rr e f l e c tcond i t ion sw i th inth es tudya r e a .O fp a r t i cu l a rin t e r e s t w a s un c e r t a in ty inth eF i r eB eh av iou rP r ed i c t ion( FBP)Sy s t emfu e ltyp e inpu t .Th e p ro c e s so fmod e lr e f in em en t ands t ep st ak entoadd r e s s inpu t l im i t a t ion s id en t i f i ed inth ef e a s ib i l i tys tudy i sth esub j e c to f Ch ap t e r4 . 3 .3Re su l t s 3 .3 .1Commun i tyIn te rv iew s In i t i a ld i s cu s s i on sb e tw e en in s t i tu t ion a lr e s e a r ch e r sandth eTRRC inth ef i r s t y e a ro fth ep ro j e c t(2012–2013 )id en t i f i ed w i ldf i r er i sk ,a lon gw i thh ab i t a tch an g e andem e r g in gth r e a t s( e . g . Moun t a inP in eB e e t l e )a sp r io r i typ ro j e c tth em esin T e s l in .Th i se s t ab l i sh edth efound a t ionfo rcommun i tyin t e rv i ew s du r in gth es e cond y e a ro fth ep a r tn e r sh ip(2013–2014 ). Commun i ty in t e rv i ew sw i thknow l ed g e ho ld e r semph a s i z edth e impo r tan c eo fth e“L and ”andth en a tu r a lenv i ronm en tto th ep eop l eo fT e s l in ,andcon f i rm edw i ld f i r er i ska sap r io r i tyfo r e s tr i sk(T imkoe ta l . 2015 ) .Som ecommonth em e sem e r g edf romth e in t e rv i ew s , in c lud in ga l a cko f l a r g e f i r e s inr e c en td e c ad e s ,p e r c e iv edb en e f i t so fw i ld f i r efo rh ab i t a t ,andhun t in g ,and 26 d iv id edp r e f e r en c esfo rh a rv e s t in ga soppo s edtocon t ro l l edbu rn in g tof a c i l i t a t efu e l r edu c t ionandm i t i g a t ef i r er i sk . Th e l a r g ef i r e so fth e1950 sandth efo r e s tfu e lbu i ld ups in c eth a tt im e ,a s w e l la sch an g e s inw e a th e rp a t t e rn s , w e r ed i s cu s s edby in t e rv i ewp a r t i c ip an t s. R e g a rd in gth e lon gdu r a t ions in c e l a r g ef i r e s, on e in t e rv i ew e es t a t ed :“Th e r e i sa30 40y ea rp e r iodwh e r eyoudon ’ ts e ebu rn s .Youknow , l i k ea lo to fth ebu rn sIs e ea r e f romth e50 sand60 s ”(T l ing i tman ) .Th e r ew a sa l sor e co l l e c t iono fth e l a r g ef i r eo f 1958, wh i chspo t t eda c ro s sT e s l inL ak e :“W e l lw e ’ v eb e enknowntoha v eou rfo r e s t f i r e sfo rsu r e .No tn ea r l ywha tyous e e ino th e ra r ea so fth eYu kon ,bu tw eha v e .W e l l tha twho l es id eo fth e la k eha sbu rn t .S to r i e so fm yfam i l y la y ingonth eb ea cha t12 m i l ew i thsh e e tm e ta lroo f ingco v e r ingth emandth espa r k scom ingdown .Tha twa s wa yba c k inth e50 s .Tha twa sth eb igf i r e ,th ey ea rth eYu konn ea r l ybu rn tupIth in k . Bu tw e ’ v en e v e rhadan y th ing l i k etha t .Youknow ,th ef i r e stha tyous e ewh enyoud r i v e to Wh i t eho r s e ,tha ta r ea ,tho s ea r eo ldh i s t o r i cf i r e s .Bu ts in c eth enw e ’ v en e v e rhad an yr ea l l yb igma jo rbu rn stha tIcanr e ca l l ”(T l ing i tMan ) .M any p a r t i c ip an t sno t ed th a tsumm e r sh av eb e encoo l e r inr e c en td e c ad e s ,o r mo r eunp r ed i c t ab l e ,w i th in c r e a s edw ind(T imkoe ta l .2015 ) . Th econ s en su s isth a tth efo r e s t i s mu chth i ck e r h ing sa r emo r ema tu r e ,andth e r e i sa lo t and mo r econ t inuou sth an50y e a r sa go :“T o ffu e l la y ing inth ebu sh .Andyoucans e e i te v e r ywh e r e ”(T l ing l i tman ) . Th er e l a t ion sh ipb e tw e en moo s eh ab i t a tandf i r ew a semph a s i z edby p a r t i c ip an t sand ind i c a t e sth econ c e rnabou th ab i t a t lo s s: “Th e r ew e r ea lo to ff i r e s . On eth ingIknow ,b e cau s eIhun t lo t s ,th er eg en e ra t iono fth efo r e s tha sab ig impa c t onth egam e ,r igh t ?So ,I l i k etos e eswa th e so ffo r e s tbu rnna tu ra l l y ,r eg en e rat e 27 b e cau s eth enIknowth ehun t ingw i l lb egoodfo r30 ,40 ,50y ea r s intha ta r eawh en i t s ta r t stor eg en e ra t e ”(T l ing i tman ) .Ano th e rp a r t i c ip an tsp e c i f i c a l ly m en t ion edth e l i k eIsa y ,youg e tn eww i l low s .I t ’ sgoodfo rth e und e r g row thp r e s en ta f t e rbu rn :“And moo s e .I t ’ sgoodfo rth erabb i t s ”(T l ing i tMan ) . Th econ s en su sth a tw i ld f i r er i sk i sp r e s en tandw id e sp r e adw a scon s i s t en t amon gp a r t i c ip an t s .On ep a r t i c ip an tno t edw i ld f i r ew a s :“Mo r eo far i s k .Up inth e sou thCano l , i t ’ sr ea lth i c kupth e r e , l i k ea longth eN i su t l inVa l l e y ”(T l ing i tman ) . Op in ion son m an a g em en top t ion sfo rw i ld f i r em i t i g a t ionv a r i edamon gknow l ed g e ho ld e r s ,w i thsom ep r e f e r r in gh a rv e s tando th e r sop entoth e id e ao fcon t ro l l ed bu rn s i fund e r t ak enc a r e fu l ly(T imkoe ta l .2015 ) . Th eob s e rv a t ionth a tT e s l in i sp r on etoL IF sw a sak eyou t com eo fcommun i ty in t e rv i ew s ,andth e s ef i r s t h anda c coun t sa r esuppo r t edbyth e l im i t edf i r er e co rd , andad end ro ch rono lo gys tudycondu c t edbyG r i e sb au e randG r e en(2012 ) ,wh i ch id en t i f i ed l ik e ly d rou gh tp e r iod sco in c id in gw i thth e1917 ,1950 ,and1958f i r e s .I t i s un c l e a r i fabo r i g in a lbu rn in gw a sp r a c t i c ed inT e s l in,anda l thou gh som ee ld e r in t e rv i ew scon f i rm ed th epo s s ib i l i ty ,th ep r a c t i c ew a s l ik e lyno tw id e sp r e adand wou ldr equ i r efu r th e r inve s t i g a t ion(T imkoe ta l .2015 ) . 3 .3 .2Fea s ib i l i tyS tudy E a r lye xp lo r a t iono fBu rnP3andth er e su l t in gv i su a l sw e r er e c e iv ed po s i t iv e lybyr e s e a r chp a r tn e r sandcommun i ty m emb e r s ,a l thou ghth e WRMGw a s c au t ion edno tto in t e rp r e tth ee a r lyv i su a l sonth es c a l eo f ind iv idu a lp i x e l s ,bu t r a th e ra sacon c ep tu a l i z a t iono fwh a tBu rn P3w a sc ap ab l eo fp rov id in gtosuppo r t 28 commun i typ l ann in g .Inpu t su s ed inth ef e a s ib i l i tys tudy l a ck edv a l id a t ion ,bu t i t w a sc l e a rth a tBu rnP3cou ldh e lpv i su l i z er e l a t iv ew i ld f i r er i skfo rth ecommun i ty . P a r t i cu l a r ly in t e r e s t in gw a show in tu i t iv eou tpu tf i r eh a z a rd m ap sw e r eto commun i t ym emb e r s ,ar e f l e c t iono fth ecoh e r en c eb e tw e encommun i ty m emb e r s ’ p e r c ep t ion so ff i r eh a z a rdandth ev i su a l i z a t ion s .Wh a t in i t i a lBu rn P3ou tpu t s p rov id edw a sasp a t ia lr ep r e s en t a t iono ff i r eh a z a rdcon c e rn sa l r e adyp e r c e iv edin th ecommun i ty .Th e s ev i su a l ss e rv eda sapo in to fconv e r s a t ionfo rhowf i r eh a z a rd cou lds e rv ea sac en t r a lth em e info r e s tm an a g em en tp l ann in g .Id en t i f i ed w e akn e s s e s in inpu td a t aw e r ed e em edwo r thyo ffu r th e r inv e s t i g a t ionand r e f in em en t ,wh i ch i sth esub j e c to fch ap t e r4 . 3 .4D i s cu s s ion Th ecy c l i c a lf i r er e g im e inT e s l inw a sak eyf ind in gd e r iv edf romcommun i ty in t e rv i ew s .R e c en tr e s e a r chu s in gd end ro ch rono lo gyand ch a r co a lan a ly s i ssu g g e s t s mu l t id e c ad a lc l im a t i cv a r i ab i l i ty m ayb eth eno rm a lt r end inp a r t so fth ebo r e a l fo r e s t(K e l lye ta l .2013 ;S au chyne ta l .2015 ) .Th e r e i scoh e r en c eb e tw e en d end ro ch rono lo gy ,h i s to r i c a lr eco rd s ,andcommun i ty in t e rv i ew stosuppo r ta c l im a t i ccy c l eth a tf lu c tu a t e sb e tw e enh i ghand lowr i skf i r ew e a th e r .L a r g el and s c ap ew i ld f i r ew a sadop t eda saun i fy in gth em e inT e s l intob r in g a l l r i sk s /oppo r tun i t i e s in toin t e g r a t ed l and m an a g em en tp l ann in g. Th ete chn i c a l in fo rm a t ionf romw i ld f ir eh a z a rdmod e l l in gh a sh e lp ed id en t i fy c r i t i c a lch a l l en g e sandpo t en t i a lr e comm end a t ion stoadd r e s scommun i ty id en t i f i ed n e eds /oppo r tun i t i e s .Th epo t en t i a lfo r l a r g el and s c ap ef i r e sand th ep ro x im i tyo f 29 k eyr i ska r e a stoth ecommun i tya r eth ek eych a l l en g e s .R e comm end a t ion sa s p r e s en t ed inG r e en(2016 )f al lund e rth r e e g en e r a lth em e s :1 )Comb in in gw i ld f i r e m i t i g a t ion w i th l and m an a g em en ta c t iv i t i e sp rov id e sanoppo r tun i tytoin c r e a s e commun i tyad ap t a t ionc ap a c i ty ,2 )Anyw i ld f i r em i t i g a t ionn e ed stob ein f o rm edby a c cu r a t e in fo rm a t ionandcommun i tyv a lu e s ,3 )S t r a t e g i e stobu i ldcommun i ty c ap a c i tyn e edtob e id en t i f i ed ino rd e rtop rov id eg r e a t e rr e s i l i en c ed e sp i t e in c r e a s in gcomp l e x i tyandch a l l en g e s . Emp i r i c a lw i ld f i r e mod e l l in g i sa s mu chana r ta sas c i en c e(V an W a gn e r 1985 )anda ssu chc anb ecomp l im en t a rytolo c a land t r ad i t ion a le co lo g i c a l know l ed g e(TEK ) . Th i sp ro j e c t i sane x amp l eo fhoww e s t e rns c i en c ec anb e in fo rm edbyTEK ;f ind in g sf romcomm un i ty in t e rv i ew sgu id edfo l lowupr e s e a r ch in toth ef i r ed i s tu rb an c er e g im eo fth er e g ion .A tth i spo in ta l lfo r e s tm an ag em en t th ink in gandp l ann in ginth ecommun i ty ( bo thw i th inTTCandb e tw e enTTCand Yukon) i sb e in gv i ew edth rou ghth e l e n so fw i ld f i r er i sk m i t i g a t ion ,andth e s e f ind in g sh av eb e enadop t edtosuppo r tl and m an a g em en tp l ann in g;a ssu ch , th i s p ro j e c th a sa l r e adyp rov edu s e fu lth rou ghth ein c r e a s edaw a r en e s so fw i ld f i r er i sk w i th inth ecommun i ty . 3 .5Con c lu s ion Th ecommun i tyen g a g em en tp ro c e s sund e r t ak en inth i sr e s e a r chp ro j e c t emph a s i z edth e i mpo r t an c eo f lo c a lknow l ed g eho ld e r sfo rin fo rm in g l and m an a g em en tp r a c t i c e s . TEKsuppo r t sth eb e l i e fth a tT e s l in i sp ron etocy c l i c a l c l im a t ep a t t e rn s ,andsu s c ep t ib l etoL IFsdu r in gw a rm e rph a s e so fth i sp a t t e rn .N o t 30 enou gh in fo rm a t ione x i s t stop r ed i c t i fth i scy c l ew i l lcon t inu e , l e ad in gto un ce r t a in tyandth en e edto id en t i fyar an g eo ffu tu r ep r ed i c t iv es c en a r io s ,wh i ch Bu rnP3c anh e lpp rov id e . 31 Chap te r4U s ingBu rnP3toiden t i fyw i ld f i reha za rdunde rachang ingc l ima te inTe s l inYukon 4.1In t rodu c t ion In i t i a le xp e r im en t a t ionl edtoth econ c lu s ionth a tBu rn P3wou ldb eau s e fu l too lf o r in co rpo r a t ion in to l and s c ap el ev e lp l ann in ginth eTTTT .Th esp e c i f i cs t ep s t ak en inth ep r e l im in a ryf e a s ib i l i tys tudyfo rth eu s eo fBu rn P3 inth eTTTTa r e do cum en t edbyH a l l(2014 ) .Th a te a r lywo rks e tth es t a g efo rth er e s e a r chth a t f o l low ed,a l low in gth ed ev e lopm en to fawo rk in gBu rn P3 mod e lfo rth eTTTT . Th ep ro c e sso fbu i ld in gaBu rn P3 mod e l i san i t e r a t iv ep ro c e s s .M any d i f f e r en tsc en a r io sh av eb e ent e s t eds in c ep r e l im in a rye xp e r im en t a t ionw i thBu rnP3b e g an,andsom eo fth a t evo lu t ion a ryt r i a lande r ro ri sd e t a i l edh e r e in , b e c au s e i t m ayb eh e lp fu lfo ro th e rr e s e a r ch e r s in t e r e s t ed inad ap t in gBurn P3fo ru s e ino th e r l and s c ap e s . Mu cho fth e l i t e r a tu r eonBu rn P3(e . g .P a ri s i ene ta l .2005 ;B ev e r lye ta l . 2009 ;B r aune ta l .2010 ;P a ri s i ene ta l .2012 ;W an ge ta l .2016 )a s sum e ssom e l ev e l o fu s e rund e r s t and in go fG eo g r aph i cIn fo rm a t ionSy s t em s(G I S) , andth eC an ad i an Fo r e s tF i r eD an g e rR a t in gSy s t em( CFFDR S) , and i t ssub compon en tp a r t s , th eF i r e B eh av iou rP r ed i c t ion(FBP)andF i r eW e a th e rInd e x(FW I)S y s t em s ,andas im i l a r l ev e lo fund e r s t and in g i sa s sum edh e r e .Manyo fth ea s sump t i on sandd e c i s ion s m ad ew e r e in fo rm edbye xp e r top in ionf rom l e ad in gBu rnP3r e s e a r ch e r s,and e xp e r top in ionw a se x e r c i s edbyth er e s e a r cht e ama sf am i l i a r i tyw i thth eTTTT s tudya r e ain c r e a s ed . Mu l t ip l e inpu t sw e r er equ i r edfo r in co rpo ra t ion in toe a chBu rn P3 mod e l . S p a t i al inpu t sw e r eg en e r a t edu s in gA r cM ap(E SR I2012 ) , andR(RCo r eT e am 32 2016 ) ,andw e r er equ i r edtoh av eacon s i s t en tp ro j e c t ionandr e so lu t ion .Sp a t i a l inpu t sa r er a s t e rd a t a s e t sanda r er e f e r r edtoh e r e ina sg r id s . YukonA lb e r sw a s cho s ena sth ep ro j e c t iontowh i cha l ld a t aw a ss e t ,b e c au s e i tm in im i z e sd i s to r t ion fo rth eYukonT e r r i to ryandth es tu dya r e a .Nonsp a t i a linpu td a t a s e t sw er ec r e a t ed u s in gsp r e ad sh e e tso f tw a r eb a s edonhi s to r i cd a t aande xp e r top in ion . Th eBu rnP3 mod e lcon s i st so fm app ed inpu t s ,ands e t t in g sth a ta t t emp tto a c cu r a t e lyr e f l e c tth en a tu r a lf i r er e g im e(F i gu r e4 .1 ) . M app ed inpu t scon s i s to fa FBPSy s t emfu e ltyp eg r idandane l ev a t iong r id .Th e i gn i t ion s modu l ed e t e rm in e s th enumb e ro f i gn i t ion s mod e l l edp e r i t e r a t ion , andbyc au s e ,s e a son ,andf i r ezon e i f app l i c ab l e ,a lon gw i thp rov id in ge a ch i gn i t iona lo c a t iond r awnf romp rob ab i l i s t i c i gn i t iong r id s(F i gu r e4 .1 ) .Th ebu rn in gcond i t ion s modu l econ t ro l sfo rbu rn in g dur a t ionw i thth enumb e ro fbu rn in gd ay sa s s i gn edtoe a chf i r e ,andp rov id e sd a i ly f i r ew e a th e rcond i t ion stob eu s edfo re a chn ewd ayo fbu rn in g ,d r awnf romaf i r e w e a th e r l i s t(F i gu r e4 .1 ) .Th ep ro ce s s i sr ep e a t edfo rth enumb e ro f i t e r a t ion s sp e c i f i edbyth eu s e r ,a f t e rwh i chbu rnp rob ab i l i ty i sc a l cu l a t ed. Fu r th e r in fo rm a t ion i sav a i l ab l eonth esp e c i f i c so fth e s ecompon en t s in th eBu rnP3us e r ’ sm anu a l (N a tu r a lR e sou r c e sC an ad a2016 ) . Th epu rpo s eo fth i sch ap t e r i stop rov id eth es t ep st ak enanda s sump t ion s m ad e inth ec r e a t ion o fa l lBu rn P3 inpu t s ,a lon gw i thp rov id in gr e su l t in gBP e s t im a t e sfo rth eTT TTfo rfu tu r ec l im a t es c en a r io sandad i s cu s s iono fth ev a l id i ty o fth e s ef in a lou tpu t s . 33 F igu re4 .1:Rep resen ta t iono ftheBu rn P3 mode l l ingp rocessesfo ras ing lei te ra t ion,wh ich cons is tso f mappedinpu tsand modu lestha ta t temp ttoaccu ra te lyre f lec tthena tu ra lf i rereg ime . rnp robab i l i tyo fap ixe l ,b i s t h e n um b e r o f t im e s a p i x e l b u r n s , a n d N i s t h e t o t a l Bpiisthebu i numbe ro fi te ra t ions. 4.2 Me thod s 4.2 .1S tudyA rea Thes tudya r e afo rth i sp ro j e c tw a sth eT e s l inT l in g i tt r ad i t ion a lt e r r i to ry (TTTT ) ,fo rwh i chad e s c r ip t iono fth e env i ronm en t a landso c i a lin f lu en c e sw a s p rov id ed i ss e c t ion3 .2 .1 .Th eTTTTin c lud e s2 ,718 ,370h ao fYukonT e r r i to ryand 1 ,050 ,731h ao fB r i t i shCo lumb i a. S e l e c t iono fth eTTTTa sth es tudya r e aa l low eda su f f i c i en t ly l a r g ea r e ator e f l e c tan a tu r a ld i s tu rb an c er e g im eund e r s toodtob e dom in a t edbyl a r g e in f r equ en tf i r e s(L IF s ) .Asp a t i a lr ep r e s en t a t ion ( sh ap e f i l e )o f 34 th eTTTTbound a ryw a sob t a in edf romth eT e s l inT l in g i tCoun c i lfo r in co rpo r a t ion in toaG I S . Toavo ided g ee f f e c tfo rth eou tpu tbu rnp rob ab i l i ty m ap s , anadd i t ion a l buf f e rw a sadd edtoth eTTTTbound a ryanda l lsub s equ en t lyc r e a t ed inpu t s , a l low in g s imu l a t edf i r e s i gn i t edou t s id eth es tudya r e atosp r e ad in toth es tudya r e a . I tw a sapp ro x im a t edb a s edonth em a x imumsp a t i a le x t en to fp r ev iou s lyr e co rd ed f i r e sth a ta50kmbu f f e rw a ssu f f i c i en ttoa l lowfo ra l a r g es imu l a t edw i ld f i r etob e r e f l e c t ed inth eou tpu tbu rnp rob ab i l i tyfo rth eTTTT. Th ef in a lp r ed i c t iv eBP m ap s w e r eu l t im a t e lyc l ipp edb a ckdownto th eTTTTbound a ry,r emov in gth eun c e r t a in ty inou tpu tv a lu e sd e r iv edw i th inth e 50kmbu f f e rzon e . D e s i r ed mod e lbu rnp rob ab i l i tyou tpu tr e so lu t iond e f in e s inpu tr e so lu t ion . In i t i a l lyap i x e lr e so lu t iono f250 mw a su s edb e c au s eth i sw a sth er e so lu t iono fth e av a i l ab l eFBPSy s t em l ay e r s .A f t e rf i e ldwo rkth a t in fo rm edth ec r e a t iono facu s tom FBPSy s t emfu e l s l ay e r ,a r e so lu t iono f100 mw a scho s ena sacomp rom i s eb e tw e en d e t a i landcom pu t a t ion a le f f i c i en cy . 4 .2 .2MappedInpu t s Th em app ed inpu t s(l and s c ap ecompon en t )con s i s t so faFBPSy s t emfu e l lookupt ab l e ,fo rwh i chth ed e f au l tP rom e th eu st ab l ecom e sp r e lo ad ed ,and mu l t ip l e r a s t e rb a s edsp a t i a lr ep r e s en t a t ion so fth e l and s c ap e ,on lyon eo fwh i ch ,th eFBP Sy s t emfu e lg r id ,andi t s a s so c i a t edp roj e c t ionf i l e , a r em and a to ry .T h r e eadd i t ion a l op t ion a lm app ed inpu t sth a tm ayb ed e s i r edbyth eu s e rd ep end in gons tudya r e a a r eane l ev a t iong r id ,f i r ezon e sg r id ,andw e a th e rzon e sg r id .Th eTTTTs tudya r e a i sa moun t a inou sr e g ion ,ands in c ee l ev a t ionw a sund e r s toodtoh av econ s id e r ab l e 35 imp a c tonf i r eb eh av iou r , i tw a sd e em edan e c e s s a ry inpu t .Thu s ,fo rth eTTTTs tudy a r e a , m app ed inpu t so fth e l and s c apecompon en tcon s i s t edo faFBPSy s t e m fu e lg r id andane l ev a t iong r id . 4 .2 .2.1Deve lopmen to fFBP Sy s temfue lg r id Sou r c in gr e l i ab l efu e ld a t aw i thwh i chtoc r e a t eth eFBPSy s t emg r idw a son e o fth eg r e a t e s tch a l l en g e so fth i sp ro j e c t .Th e r ea r e inh e r en t l im i t a t ion sin r ep r e s en t in gr e a l i tyw i thp i x e l s inar a s t e rd a t a s e t .Th e r e a r ea l sosho r t com in g sin th eFBPS y s t em i t s e l f,w i thon ly16 fu e ltyp e sth a tdono te a s i lyc a t e go r i z ea l lfo r e s t andv e g e t a t iontyp e s . A s sump t ion sands imp l i f i c a t ion sm ad edu r in g th ec r e a t iono f fu e lg r id sc anr e su l t inv e ryd i f f e r en tFBPSy s t emfu e lin t e rp r e t a t ion s . Mu l t ip l eFBP Sy s t emd a t a s e t sh av eb e enu s ede xp e r im en t a l ly .In i t i a l ly , a n a t ion a lfu e l sc l a s s i f i c a t iona tar e so lu t iono f250 m ,p rov id edbyth eC an ad i an Fo r e s tS e rv i c e(CF S)andcommon lyr e f e r r edtoa s“C an fu e l s ”w a su s ed(N ad e aue ta l 2005 ).Yukon W i ld f i r eM an a g em en tB r an ch a l sosh a r edanin t e rn a l lyc r e a t edfu e l s l ay e r wh i chcov e r edon lyth eYukonpo r t iono fth eTTTT. Inth esp r in go f2015 , a n ewn a t ion a lfu e l s l ay e rw a sp rov id edbyCF Sandr e c e iv edupd a t in ga f t e re xp e r t op in ionf romYukon W i ld f i r eM an a g em en tB r an ch. A roundth i st im e ,YukonFo r e s t M an a g em en tb r an ch m ad eav a i l ab l ean ewv e g e t a t ion inv en to rywh i chh app en edto co v e rac r i t i c a lpo r t iono fou rs tudya r e a , in c lud in gth ecommun i tyo fT e s l in. An a c cu r a t eFBPSy s t emfu e l s l ay e r i sav i t a lpu r su its in c eth i scompon en th a sth e g r e a t e s t imp a c tonbu rnp rob ab i l i ty(P a r i s i ene ta l .2011 ;P a r i s i ene ta l .2012 ) . F i e ldwo rktoa s s e s sth epo s s ib i l i tyo fconv e r t in gv e g e t a t ioninv en to ry 36 po ly gond a t af romth efo r e s t inv en to ryd a t a s e t in toFBPSy s t emfu e ltyp e sw a s und e r t ak ena sapo t en t i a l imp rov em en tov e rth eCF Sn a t ion a lFBPSy s t emg r id .Th i s f i e lda s s e s sm en tandg rou nd t ru th in go fth einv en to ry o c cu r r edov e r15d ay s b e tw e enJu ly28–Au gu s t14 ,2015,and imp rov edth e r e s e a r cht e am ’ s und e r s t and in go fv e g e t a t ioncomp l e x e s inth es tudya r e a .Con f id en c e inth e c l a s s i f i c a t iono fv e g e t a t ion inv en to rypo ly gon sa l low edconv e r s iontoFBPSy s t em fu e ltyp e sv i aac l a s s i f i c a t ions ch em eb a s edone xp e r top in ion .Th ef in a l c l a s s i f i c a t ions ch em ew a sd e c id edupona f t e rap ro c e s so fr e f in em en tund e r t ak en du r in gf i e ldwo rk .Fu r th e re xp l an a t iono fth ef in a lc l a s s i f i c a t ions ch em eandth e p ro c e s s e st ak entoconv e r tv e g e t a t ion inv en to rypo ly gon s in toFBPSy s t emfu e l typ e si sp rov id ed inApp end i xA .Th e in t e rp r e t a t ion i ssub j e c ttos imp l i f i c a t io n sbu t i sthou gh ttob ear e a son ab l e r ep r e s en t a t iono ffu e ltyp e s inth er e g ion .Common fu e ltyp e sinth er e g ion in c lud eC2 ,C3 ,C4 ,andD1 /D2(F i gu r e4 .2 ) . Fo rth e conv e r s iontoFBPSy s t emfu e ltyp e s , ar e so lu t iono f100 mw a scho s en ,wh i ch i san imp rov em en tov e rth en a t ion a l fu e l sd a t a .Th i sr e so lu t iona l low sfo rg r e a t e r con f id en c e inth ew i ld f i r ep r ob ab i l i tymod e l l ed inth ea r e a imm ed i a t e lysu r round in g T e s l in .How ev e r ,b e c au s eth ee x t en to fth eupd a t edv e g e t a t iond a t aw a sl im i t ed , th e n a t ion a lfu e l sd a t ao fa low e rr e so lu t ionw a sr equ i r edfo rth epo r t iono fth es tudy a r e aou t s id eth ev e g e t a t ion inv ento rye x t en t ,wh i chr e su l t ed inacompo s i t ed a t a s e t w i thap rom in en ted g ee f f e c t(F i gu r e4 .3) .Th en a t ion a lfu e l s l ay e rund e r e s t im a t es C2wh i l eov e r e s t im a t in gC3r e l a t iv etoth ev e g e t a t iond e r iv edfu e l s l ay e r ,so p rov id e sas l i gh t ly mo r econ s e rv a t iv ee s t im at eo ffu e ltyp e . 37 F igu re4 .2:P rom inen tfue ltypesintheTTTTbasedonsumme r2015f ie ldwo rk .Re fe rtoSec t ion 2 .4 .2fo radd i t iona lbackg rou ndontheFBPSys tem . 38 F igu re4 .3:Compos i teFBPSys temfue lg r idusedinBu rnP3 mode l l ing.Basedonf ie ld samp l ing in te rp re ta t ion ,vege ta t ioninven to ryda taava i lab lefo rSFMPLUswasusedtocons t ruc tapo r t ion o ftheg r id,thee xten to fwh ichisd isp layedbydashedredl ine .Therema inde ro ftheg r idcons is ts o ftheCFSNa t iona lFBPSys temfue ltypein te rp re ta t ion .Thed i f fe rencesbe tweenthetwoFBP Sys temfue ltypeda tase tscompos ingth isg r idisc lea r lyobse rvab le ,andtheresea rchteamno ted tha ttheCFSNa t iona lFBPSys temfue lg r idunde res t ima testheamoun to fC2(bo rea lsp ruce )in samp leda reas , mak ingthevege ta t ioninven to ryde r ivedda t ase ta mo reaccu ra tein te rp re ta t ion . 39 4 .2 .2 .2E leva t ion E l ev a t ionh a sas i gn i f i c an t in f lu en c eonf i r eb eh av iou randsp r e adr a t e (Fo r e s t ryC an ad aF i r eD an g e r Wo rk in gG roup1992 ) . Som eBu rn P3s tud i e s inf l a t a r e a sh av eop t edtofo r goe l ev a t ion( e . g .B r aune ta l .2010 ;P a r i s i ene ta l .2011 ) ; how ev e r ,th i sw a sno ta nop t ion inth e moun t a inou sTTTT .E l ev a t iond a t ai s pub l i c a l lyav a i l ab l ef romgov e rnm en td a t ab a s e s.Ind iv idu a l1 :250 ,000DEMsh e e t s o fasu f f i c i en te x t en ttocov e rth eTTTT, w i thth eadd i t ion a l50kmbu f f e r, w e r e down lo ad edf romG eob a s e .Th eDEMw a sr e f in ed inth eG I Sto m a t chth e ch a r a c t e r i s t i c so fth eFBPSy s t emfu e l s l ay e r ; i tw a sp ro j e c t edtoYukonA lb e r s ,h ada 100mr e so lu t ionsp e c i f i ed , andsn app in gw a ss e ttoth i s l ay e rino rd e rfo rth e ind iv idu a lp i x e l so fe a chr a s t e rd a t a s e ttod i r e c t lyov e r l ap (F i gu r e4 .4 ) . 40 F igu re4 .4:E leva t iong r idusedinBu rnP3 mode l l ing .TheTTTTis mode ra te ly moun ta inous , p romp t ingthenecess i tyfo rane leva t iong r idtoaccu ra te ly mode lf i resp readunde rtheFBP Sys tem .Theimageon ther igh twastakendu r ingf ie ldsamp l ingf romarad iotowe rv iewpo in t access ib lebyveh ic les l igh t lyno r thoftheV i l lageo fTes l in .D i rec t ionislook ings ou theas t,w i th T le ’naxT ’Awe i(LoneSheep Moun ta in;M t . Ke ish,BC ;e leva t ion :1969 m )se rv ingasap rom inen t e leva t iona lfoca lpo in t,common lyre fe r redtointhecommun i tyasDawsonPeakso rTheTh ree Aces . 4.2 . 3Ign i t ion s Modu le Th e i gn i t ion s modu l ed e t e rm in e s in i t i a l i gn i t ion lo c a t ion sp e r i t e r a t ion ,and th enumb e ro ff i r e sp e r i t e r a t ion .Th e modu l eco n s i s t so fth r e e inpu t s ,p rob ab i l i s t i c r a s t e ri gn i t iong r id s ,a lon gw i thtwoa sp a t i a ld i s t r ibu t ion s , th e‘numb e ro f i gn i t ion s ’ , andth e‘d i s t r ibu t iono f i gn i t ion s byc au s e, s e a son , andf i r ezon e ’ ,wh i chh e lpto b e t t e rr e f l e c th i s to r i ci gn i t ionp a t t e rn s inth es tudya r e a . Th e i gn i t iong r id sa r er a s t e rp rob ab i l i tyg r id sr ep r e s en t in gth er e l a t iv e l ik e l ihood o f i gn i t iononap i x e lb a s i s. Mu l t ip l e i gn i t iong r id sc anb ec r e a t edb a s edon s e a son( sp r in gv s .summ e r ) ,andf i r ec au s e(hum anv s . l i gh tn in g ) .On l a r g e l and s c ap e s , i gn i t ion sc anv a ryb a s ed onc l e a r lyd ef in ed l and s c ap ed i f f e r en c e s( i . e . 41 e l ev a t ion ) , inwh i chc a s e i tm ayb es en s ib l etoa l sosp l i t i gn i t iong r id s byfi r ezon e , wh i cha r er e g ion so fun iqu eand id en t i f i ab lyd i f f e r en tn a tu r a lf i r er e g im e s(Bu rn P3 U s e r ’ sM anu a l2016 ). Fo rs imp l i c i ty ,f i r ezon es t r a t i f i c a t ionw a sno tu s edinth i s p ro j e c t. I gn i t iong r id sth a tcon s id e r edp r ev iou s i gn i t ion lo c a t ion s ,bu td idno tr e ly so l e lyonth e l im i t edf i r er e co rda lon ew e r ed e s i r ed .Toc r e a t eth ei gn i t iong r id sfo r th es tudya r e a , a lo g i s t i cr e g r e s s ionan a ly s i sw a su s edto l inkenv i ronm en t a l v a r i ab l e stoh i s to r i ci gn i t ion s ,andapp lyth er e l a t ion sh ip toe a chp i x e lonth e l and s c ap e ( e . g .Syph a rde ta l .2008 ;B a rM a s s ad ae ta l .2011 ;S co t te ta l .2012 ; P a r i s i ene ta l .2012 ;W an ge tal .2016 ) . Fi r epo in td a t a w a sa cqu i r edf romth e C an ad i ann a t ion a lf i r eda t ab a s eand in c lud edd a t af rom1946 2015 .Th rou gh e xp lo r a to ryan a ly s i si tw a sd e c id ed th a ti gn i t ion swh i chr e su l t ed inf i r e sg r e a t e r th an3h aw e r eth eb e s te s t im a t eo f i gn i t ionpo t en ti a lf rome s c ap edf i r e s , a c coun t in g fo r99 .8%o fth eto t a la r e abu rn ed ,andb ein g l a r g eenou ghtoavo idv e ry sm a l lf i r e s th a th av ead i f f e r en tsp a t i a lp a t t e rnonth e l and s c ap e .Sp r in gw a sa s sum edtoendon M ay31stwh i l esumm e rw a sa s sum edtos t a r tJun e1st.Th i sd a t ew a scho s ena sa p r ed i c t iono fav e r a g ed e c iduou s l e a fou tt im eb a s edonp e r son a lob s erv a t ionand f e edb a ckf rom lo c a lp eop l e , anda l low sg r e en upru l e stob eapp l i edtoth e P rom e th eu sdu al fu e ltyp e s :D1 /D2and M1 /M2 . Th eg r e enupru l e ss e tth eda t eo f l e a f ou tfo rd e c iduou sfu e ltyp e s ,a l low in gth edu al fu e ltyp e stor e f l e c t low e r mo i s tu r econ t en t inth esp r in g ,andh i gh e r mo i s tu r econ t en t inth esumm e r. S in c e ve ryf ewf i r e so c cu r insp r in gw i th inth es tudya r e ah i s to r i c a l ly , andth e lo g i s t i c r e g r e s s ionan a ly s i sr equ i r e sa l a r g eenou ghs amp l es i z eo fr e co rd edw i ld f i r e stob e 42 v a l id ,th ei gn i t iong r id s w e r esp l i tbyc au s eon ly( i . e .hum anand l i gh tn in g ) .Th e a s sump t ionw a sm ad eth a tsp r in g i gn i t ion swou lda s sum eas im i l a rp a t t e rnto summ e r i gn i t ion s ,soth a tth ehum an i gn i t iong r idwou ldb eu s edfo rbo thsp r in gand summ e r ,andth e l i gh tn in gg r idwou ldb eu s edfo rbo thsp r in gandsumm e r ,a l low in g g r e en upd i f f e r en c e stob er e sp e c t ed .Th e r e fo r e ,a l thou ghth e r ea r efou r comb in a t ion so fc au s eands e a soninBu rn P3 ,on lytwoi gn i t iong r id s a r eu s ed . Th es t a t i s t i c a lp a ck a g eRw a su s edtop e r fo rmth e lo g i s t i cr e g r e s s ionan a ly s i s ( RCo r eT e am2016 ).Fo rd e t a i l eds t ep bys t epin s t ru c t ion so fth ep ro c e s s und e r t ak entobu i ldth e i gn i t iong r id s ,a lon gw i thRcod eu s ed ,con su l tApp end i xB. Th ed ep end en tv a r i ab l ew a ss e ttop r ev iou s i gn i t ion s ,andr andom lyg en e r a t ed p s eudoi gn i t ionab s en c e s .Th e i nd ep enden tenv i r onm en t a lv a r i ab l e s in c lud ed endu r in gl and s c ap ef e a tu r e s :e l ev a t ion ,topo g r aph i cpo s i t io n ind e x ,r ad i a t ion ,and fo rhum an i gn i t ion s , d i s t an c etoro ad sandro add en s i ty. A l ld ep end en tand ind ep end en tv a r i ab l e sw e r ec r e a t ed inA r cM apanda r e inr a s t e rfo rm .Th e s e inpu t s w e r ein co rpo r a t ed in toRfo r th ean a ly s i s .F i r s t , co r r e l a t ionb e tw e env a r i a b l e sw a s ch e ck edfo r , a ndfoundtob ea c c ep t ab ly low( r<0 .7 ) .A g en e r a ladd i t i v e mod e l (GAM )an a ly s i ssu g g e s t ede l ev a t ion ,ro add i s t an c eandro add en s i tyw e r eth e s i gn i f i c an te xp l an a to ryv a r i ab l e sfo rth ehum an i gn i t iong r id ,wh i l ee l ev a t ionan d topo g r ap h i cpo s i t ion ind e xw e r eth es i gn i f i c an te xp l an a to ryv a r i ab l e sfo rth e l i gh tn in gi gn i t iong r id . Ag en e r a l l in e a rmod e l(GLM )w a sth enbu i l tw i thth e s i gn i f i c an tp r ed i c to rv a r i ab l e s , w i thqu ad r a t i ct r an s fo rm a t ion sfo rv a r i ab l e sth a t w e r enonl in e a r . Th e i gn it iong r id sw e r eth eng en e r a t edu s in gth eR a s t e rp a ck a g e in R ,wh i chapp l i e sth eGLMtoe a chp i x e lonth e l and s c ap e .Th ep rob ab i l i tyo fap i x e l 43 suppo r t in gan i gn i t ionr an g e sf rom0to1 ,w i tha l a r g e rnumb e rr ep r e s en t in ga g r e a t e r l ik e l ihoodo fBu rn P3s e l ec t in gth a tp i x e la san i gn i t ionpo in t(F i gu r e4 .5 ) . F igu re4 .5:I gn i t iong r idsfo ra )humancausedandb )l igh tn ing causedf i resusedinBu rnP3 mode l l ing .Theseg r idsrep resen t there la t ivep robab i l i tyo fign i t iono ff i res>3ha .Theg rea te rthe p ixe lva lueonthe0–1sca le ,theg rea te rthep robab i l i tytha tthep ixe lw i l lsuppo r taf i reign i t ion . Theseg r idswe rec rea tedus ingalog is t icreg ress ionana lys isl ink ingh is to r icign i t ions>3ha ( 1946–2015 ;shownbyb lackdots )w i thendu r ingenv i ronmen ta lva r iab les(e leva t ion , topog raph icpos i t ionindex ,rad ia t ion ,d is tancetoroads ,androaddens i ty ) .Theseg r idsa re independen to feacho the r ,w i ththe‘d is t r ib u t iono fign i t ionsbycause ,season ,andf i rezone ’ d i rec t ingBu rnP3howo f teneachg r idisusedtode te rm inea mode l ledign i t ionloca t ion . On lyf ir e sth a th av eth epo t en t i a ltoe s c ap e ,o rg row l a r g eenou ghtoh av ea s i gn i f i c an t imp a c tonth e l and s c ap ea r eo f in t e r e s t ind e t e rm in in gov e r a l lbu rn p rob ab i l i ty .Th e‘numb e ro f i gn i t ion s p e r i t e r a t ion ’inpu t i sth es e cond inpu t inth e i gn i t ion s modu l e ,and sp e c i f i e sannu a le s c ap edf i r ef r equ en cybyp e r c en t , b a s edon th eh i s to r i cf i r er e co rd .Bu rn P3d r aw sf romth i sd i s t r ibu t iontod e t e rm in eth e numb e ro ff i r e sbu rn tdur in ge a ch i t e r a t ion(bu rn in gy e a r ) .Fo raf i r etob e con s id e r edane s c ap edf i r e i t mu s t b e l a rg e rth anau s e r sp e c i f i eds i z eandf i r e sth a t 44 dono tm e e tth em in imumsp e c i f i edf i r es i z ea r eno t mod e l l edonth e l and s c ap e . S in c esm a l lf i r e sh av eon lyasm a l l i n f lu en c eonov e r a l lbu rnp rob ab i l i ty ,th i s i sa r e a son ab l es imp l i f i c a t ionand i scompu t a t ion a l ly mo r ee f f i c i en t .Inth e l i t e r a tu r e , 200h ai so f t enu s eda sath r e sho ldfo rwh a tcon s t i tu t e sane s c ap edf i r e inbo r e a l e co sy s t em s .On ee s t im a t ei sth a t f i r e sg r e a t e rth an200h aa c coun tfo r97%o fth e a r e abu rn eda c ro s sC an ad a ,d e sp i t eon lya c coun t in gfo r3%o ff i r e sbyf r equ en cy ( S to ck se ta l .2002 ) .How ev e r ,exp lo r a to ryan a ly s i sp romp t edth eu s eo famu ch s m a l l e rs i z e th r e sho ldo f10h a. Th i ss i z eth r esho ldw a sa r r iv eda tth rou ghth e c a l ib r a t ionp ro c e s so fcomp a r in g mod e l l edf i r es i z e stoh i s to r i cf i r es i z e s(App end i x C) .A l thou ghas i z ecu to f fo f3h aw a su s ed inth ec r e a t iono f i gn i t iong r id s , i t i s a c c ep t ab l etou s ead i f f e r en ts i z eth r e sho ldfo r mod e l l edw i ld f i r e sa sth e s e inpu t s a r eno tm a th em a t i c a l ly l ink ed .F i r e sg r e a t e rth an10h afo re a chy e a ro fth e C an ad i anN a t ion a lF i r eD a t ab a s ef rom1946–2013w e r esumm a r i z edtoc r e a t eth e ‘numb e ro f i gn i t ion s ’ inpu tfo ru s e in Bu rnP3. Smoo th in go fth ed a taw a sp e r fo rm ed u s in gcu rv e f i t t in gso f tw a r etoc r e a t eth ef in a linpu t . ( F i gu r e4 .6) . Th ez e rov a lu e so f f r equ en cyw e r eno tt ak en in toa c coun tinth ecu rv ef i t t in g . 45 F igu re4 .6:‘Numbe ro fign i t ionspe ri te ra t ion’p red ic t ionfo rTTTT(basedonf i reda taf rom19462015 ) .Ba rG raphiso r ig ina lda tafo rw i ld f i resg rea te rthan10haandl inerep resen tslog is t ic smoo th ingfo rinco rpo ra t ionin toBu rnP3 .Theva luesf romlog is t icsmoo th inga red isp layedinthe inse ttab le . Th eth i rd inpu tinth e i gn i t ion s modu l e i sth e ‘d i s t r ibu t iono f i gn i t ion sby s e a son ,c au s e , andf i r ezon e ’ , wh i chb e t t e rr e f l e c t sknownsp a t i a landt empo r a l p a t t e rn sin i gn i t ion s ( i . e .s e a son a lp a t t e rn s ) ,by mod e l l in g i gn i t ion su s in g app rop r i a t e i gn i t iong r id sr e f l e c t iv eo fh i s to r i cob s e rv edt r end s. Thu s ,mod e ll ed f i r e sa r eb e t t e rab l etom a t chh i s to r i c a l lyob s e rv ede s c ap edf i r e sbys e a son ,f i r e c au s e , andf i r ezon e . Th e‘ d i s t r ibu t iono f i gn i t ion sbys e a son ,c au s e ,andf i r ezon e’ inpu t w a s c r e a t edfo rth es tudya r e abyin t e rp r e t in gth es am eC an ad i ann a t ion a lf i r ed a t ab a s e po in td a t au s edtoc r e a t eth ei gn i t iong r id s andth e ‘numb e ro f i gn i t ion s ’ inpu t s . I t s t w a sa s sum edsp r in gend edonM ay31st, wh i l esumm e rb e g anonJun e1 . Th e da t ab a s ep rov id e sf i r ec au s e ,a l low in gs ep a r a t iono fhum anand l i gh tn in gf i r e s .Th e s tudya r e ah a sno tb e ensp l i tin tos ep a r a t ef i r ezon e sb e c au s eth e r e i sa l im i t ed 46 numb e ro fr e co rd edf i r e s inth es tudya r e a, wh i chdo e sn ’ ta l lowc l e a rd iv i s iono ff i r e zon e so fd i f f e r in gf i r er e g im e s . Th eHomo g enou sF i r eR e g im e(HFR )zon e sp ropo s ed byBou l an g e re ta l .(2012 )w e r econ s id e r ed ,bu tth i sco a r s e l ev e lc l a s s i f i c a t ion , wou ldh av ep rov id ednoadd i t ion a ls e g r e g a t ion.Ano th e rop t ionfo rd iv i s iono ff i r e zon e swou ldb etou s ep r ed e f in ede co lo g i c a lc l a s s i f i c a t ionsy s t em s ,fo re x amp l e Bu rnP3s tud i e s inBCh av em ad eu s eo fth eB io g eo c l im at i cS y s t em(P a r i s i ene ta l . 2012, W an ge ta l .2016 ) . How ev e r ,Eco lo g i c a lL and s c ap eC l a s s i f i c a t ion i ss t i l l in d ev e lopm en t inYukon. R e g ard l e s s , th e i gn i t iong r id sa l r e adya c coun tfo r i gn i t ion v a r i ab i l i tytosom ee x t en t( MA.P a r i s i en ,p e r son a lcommun i c a t ion ,2016 ) . B a s edon th ef i r er e co rd , th em a jo r i tyo f l a r g ee s c ap edf i r e so c cu rinsumm e rv i a l i gh tn in g ( T ab l e4 .1) . Tab le4 .1.‘D is t r ibu t iono fign i t ionsbycause ,season ,andf i rezone ’fo rtheTTTTbasedon s t s t h is to r icign i t ions(1946–2015 )g rea te rthan10ha ,andassum inga May31 /June1 d iv is ion be tweensp r ingandsumme rseasons . Season Cause I gn i t ion(% ) Sp r ing Human 5 .07 L igh tn ing 2 .76 Summe r Human 27 .19 L igh tn ing 64 .98 4 .2 .4Bu rn ingCond i t ion s Modu le Th ebu rn in gcond i t ion s modu l econ s i s t so ftwo inpu t s(w e a th e randbu rn in g du r a t ion ), andp rov id e sth e i gn i t ion lo c a t ionsw i thbu rn in gcond i t ion scondu civ eto f i r esp r e ad .Th ef i r ew e a th e r l i s tcon s i s t so fa l i s to fnoonw e a th e rd a t aw i th h i gh ande x t r em ebu rn in gcond i t ion s ,wh i l eth ed i s t r ibu t ion ‘ sp r e ad ev en td ay s ’con t ro l s th edu r a t iono f mod e l l edf i r e s . 47 S in c eon ly l a r g ef i r e sw i thth eab i l i tyto in f lu en c eBPa r eo f in t e r e s tfo r mod e l l in g inBu rnP3 ,f i r econdu c iv ew e a t h e r mu s tb ep rov id edtoen su r e mod e l l ed f i r e sa r ec ap ab l eo fg row in gtos i z e se xp e c t edb a s edonth eh i s to r i cf i r er e co rdfo r th es tudya r e a( 1946–2015) . Inc r e a t in gth ef i r ew e a th e r l i s t s ,aFW I≥19w a su s ed toapp ro x im a t eh i ghande x t r em ef i r ew e a th e r( Podu rand Wo t ton2011 ) ,a t e chn iqu efo l low edino th e rr e c en tBu rn P3p ro j e c t s( e . g .P a r i s i ene ta l .2012 ;W an g e ta l .2016 ;S to ckd a l e2017 ) . W i thc l im a t e ch an g e l ik e ly imp a c t in gfu tu r ew i ld f i r ea c t iv i ty ,down s c a l ed G en e r a lC i r cu l a t ion mod e l s(GCM s )w e r eu s edtog en e r a t ef i r ew e a th e r l i s t sfo ru s e in Bu rnP3 .GCM sa r ec l im at e mod e l sb a s edonp r ed i c t edem i s s iont r a j e c to r i e sa lon g w i thg lob a lc i r cu l a t ionp a t t ern s ,andth e u s eo fGCM si sw e l l do cum en t edin p r ed i c t iv ew i ld f i r er e s e a r chinC an ad a(Podu rand Wo t ton2010 ; W an ge ta l .2015; Wo t tone ta l .2017 ) . Th r e eGCM sw e r echo s entoa s s e s sth e imp a c to ffu tu r e p ro j e c t edw e a th e rcond i t ion sonbu rnp rob ab i l i tyinth es tudya r e a :t h eC an ad i an C en t r efo rC l im a t e Mod e l l in gandAn a ly s i s(C GCM3) ,th eH ad l eyC en t r efo rC l im a t e P r ed i c t ion(H ad CM3) ,andth eIn s t i tu tP i e r r eS imonL ap l a c e( IP SLcm 4) . Fo re a cho f th e s eGCM s , th e mo s ts ev e r eGHGcon c en t r a t iont r a j e c to ry, aR ep r e s en t a t iv e Con c en t r a t ionP a thw ay(RCP )o f8 .5( IPCC5thr epo r t ;IPCC 2014 )w a su s ed, and i s som e t im e sr e f e r r edtoa sabu s in e s s a s u su a ls c en a r io.Th eRCP8 .5p a thw ay w a s p r e c ed edby,and i scomp a r ab l eto th eA2em i s s ions c en a r iod e s c r ib ed inth eSp e c i a l R epo r tonEm i s s ionS c en a r io s( IPCC2000 ), anda s sum e sin c r e a s in gpopu l a t ion , con t inu edfo s s i lfu e lr e l i an c e ,andind ep end en t lyop e r a t in g n a t ion s. 48 Mu l t ip l efu tu r es c en a r io s in co rpo r a t in gd i f f e r en tw e a th e r l i s t sa sth eon ly ch an g ew e r ep r ep a r ed. Th eob s e rv edw e a th e rs c en a r io i sb a s edonr e co rd ed w e a th e rf romth eT e s l inA i rpo r tS t a t ion( 1986–2015) ,and w a spr ep a r ed in adv an c eo fth eGCMs imu l a t edw e a th e rl i s t s . Th eb a s e l in es c en a r iocon s i s t so fa s imu l a t edr ep r e s en t a t iono fth ecu r r en tc l im a t e(1981–2010 ),co r r e spond in g g en e r a l lytoth eob s e rv edw e a th e rr e co rd .Th eb a s e l in ep e r iod i sno ta t t emp t in gto m a t chth eob s e rv edp e r iod ,bu tr a th e rth eb a s e l in ep e r iod i sa t t emp t in gto s t app ro x im a t ew e a th e rcond i t ion s inth es tudya r e aa tth eb e g inn in go fth e21 c en tu ry(Podu rand Wo t ton2010 ) .T wofu tu r et im ep e r iod s ,20312060(2050 s ) , and2061 2090(2080 s ) ,a lon gw i thth eth r e echo senGCM s , r e su l tinth efo l l ow in g p ro j e c t edfu tu r es c en a r io s :2050 sCGCM, 2080 sCGCM, 2050 sH ad l ey, 2080 sH ad l ey, 2050 sIP SL ,and2080 sIP SL .Th efu tu r es c en a r io sa r eno tfo rcomp a r i sontoth e ob s e rv eds c en a r io ,bu ta r eon lycomp a r ab l etoth eb a s e l in es c en a r io ,wh i ch in co rpo r a t e sth e s am epo t en t i a lb i a s e sp r e s en t inth eGCM su s edtog en e r a t eth e fu tu r ew e a th e r l i s t s . W e a th e rl i s t s in c lud ednoont emp e r a tu r e ,r e l a t iv ehum id i ty ,w inds p e edand 24hou rp r e c ip i t a t ion ,a lon gw i thc a l cu l a t edFW ISy s t em ind i c e s .W indd i r e c t ion d a t afo rfu tur es c en a r io sh adtob eg en e r a t edf romth eob s e rv edw e a th e rp e r iod w indd a t a,andw a sr andom i z edb e fo r eadd in gtoth eb a s e l in eandfu tu r es c en a r io w e a th e r l i s t s .Th i s i sas imp l i f i c a t ion ,bu tad equ a t e lyr e t a in sg en e r a lw indd i r e c t ion p a t t e rn sp r ev iou s lyob se rv eddu r in gf i r e condu c iv ew e a th e r .InBu rn P3, as ep a r a t e noonw e a th e rr e co rd i sd r awnfo re a chbu rn in gd ayo fa m od e l l ede s c ap edf i r e. We a th e rr e co rd sc anb ed r awnr andom lyo rs equ en t i a l lyf romth el i s t .Fo rth i s 49 p ro j e c t ,al lw e a th e rr e co rd s( i . e .d ay s ) w e r ek ep t ino rd e rbyd a t e ,a l low in gth e s equ en t i a lop t iontob echo s en ,wh i chb e t t e rr e f l e c t sn atu r a lt empo r a lw e a th e r p a t t e rn swh enBu rnP3s imu l a t e smu l t id ayf i r e s. Asumm a rycomp a r i sono f w e a th e rp ar am e t e randFW Iv a lu ed i s t r ibu t ion sb e tw e enth ee i gh ts c en a r io sw a s p r ep a r ed(F i gu r e4 .7) . 50 F igu re4 .7:Compa r isono ff i rewea the rl is tpa rame te rsfo rthe8scena r iosrep resen t ingthe d is t r ibu t ionso finpu twea the rda tausedfo r mode l l inginBu rnP3 .No tetha tthew ind rosep lo t ind ica tesd i rec t ionthew indb lowsf romdu r ingf i re conduc ivewea the rpe r iods .A lsono tetha t prec ip i ta t ionisp lo t tedbasedonthe95%con f idencein te rva lfo rthe meanra the rthanaboxp lo t , wh ichd idno tshow mean ing fu lda tabe ingtha t mos tf i reconduc ivedayshave m in ima l p rec ip i ta t ion . 51 Th e ‘sp r e ad ev e n td ay s ’inpu t i sth es e cond inpu tw i th in th ebu rn in g cond i t ion s modu l e , andd e t e rm in e sth edu r a t iono fbu rn in go fe a chf i r e.P a s t r e s e a r chh a s ind i c a t edth a tw i ld f i r eg row tho c cu r sonon lya l im i t ednumb e ro fd ay s , w i than ind iv idu a lf i r em ak in gs i gn i f i c an trun sonth e s es e l e c tf i r e condu c iv ed ay s , r e g a rd l e s so fth eto t a ldu r a t iono fa c t iv ebu rn in g( Podu rand Wo t ton2011; W an ge t a l .2014 ) . Th e s ef i r econdu c iv ed ay sa r eg en e r a l lych a r a c t e r i z edbyh i g h t emp e r a tu r e , lowhum id i ty ,w indycond i t ion s ,andp r io rd rou gh t l e ad in gto lowfu e l mo i s tu r e ,a l lo fwh i chcu lm in a t e inah i ghFW Iv a lu e ,ar ep r e s en t a t iono fp o t en t i a l Du r in gsumm e rinw e s t e rnC an ad a ,h i ghp r e s su r e f i r e in t en s i ty(W an ge ta l .2014 ) . sy s t em so fw a rmandd rycond i t ion sa l lowth ed ry in go ffo r e s tfu e l sandr em a in in p l a c efo r mu l t ip l ed ay s ,a c t in ga sb lo ck in gh i gh s,bu ta r eo f t enp r e c ed edand fo l low edbyd rylowp r e s s u r esy s t em sth a tm ay in i t i a t en ew l i gh tn in gf i r e sanda r e typ i c a l lya c comp an i edbyh i ghw ind, a l low in gfo re x t r em ef i r eb eh av iou rtoo c cu ron a c t iv ew i ld f i r e s( P r i c ee ta l .2013 ;John sonand Wow chuk1993) . InBu rn P3th e r e i ssom eu s e rd i s c r e t ionandf l e x ib i l i tya stowh a tcon s t i tu t e s a ‘ sp r e ad ev en td ay ’ ,bu tm im i ck in gth e h i s to r i cf i r es i z ed i s t r ibu t ion i sth ego a l, w i thf i r es i z eb e in gafun c t iono ff i r edu r a t ion .L ik eth e‘numb e ro f i gn i t ion s ’ ,and ‘d i s t r ibu t iono f i gn i t ion sbys e a son ,c au s e ,andf i r ez on e ’, ‘ sp r e ad ev en td ay s ’a r e r ep r e s en t edbyap rob ab i l i tyd i s t r ibu t ioninpu tc r e a t edf romh i s to r i cd a t a . Con su l t in gth ew e a th e rr e co rdtobu i ldad i s t r ibu t iono fs equ en t i a ld ay so fFW I≥19 w a scon s id e r ed ;how ev e r ,po t en t i a lsp r e add ay sa r eno tr e a l i z edsp r e add ay s (W an ge ta l .2014 ) .R e a l i z edsp r e add ay sc anb e in t e rpo l a t edf rom Mod e r a t er e so lu t ion im a g in gsp e c t ro r ad iom e t e r(MOD I S )d a t afo l low in gat e chn iqu e 52 p r e s en t ed inP a rk s(2014 ) ;how ev e r ,inv e s t in gt im ebu i ld in ga c cu r a t ef i r e p rog r e s s ion m ap sw a sno td e s i r edb e c au s eth e ‘ sp r e ad ev en td ay s ’ inpu ttyp i c a l ly und e r go e s i t e r a t iv e mod i f i c a t ionth rou ghap ro c e s so fc a l ib r a t iontob e t t e rm a t ch th ed i s t r ibu t iono fmod e l l edf i r es i z e stoh i s to r i cf i r es i z e s(P a r i s i ene ta l .2012 ; W an ge ta l.2016 ) . Toapp ro x im a t ea‘ sp r e ad ev en td ay s ’inpu t , p r ebu i l tCF SMOD I Sf i r e p ro gr e s s ione s t im a t e sf romth es tudya r e afo r2003–2016w e r econ su l t ed. U s in g th er a t e o fsp r e ad(RO S )a t t r ibu t e ,d ay sonwh i chf i r e sm ad easub s t an t i a lrunw e r e i so l a t ed ( e . g .P a r i s i ene ta l .2012 ;W an ge ta l .2016 ) .A RO S≥5 .0w a su s eda sa s t a r t in gpo in t .T h rou ghth ep ro c e s so fc a l ib r a t ion, d e t a i l ed inApp end i xC ,aRO S≥ 3 .0w a sfoundtob e t t e rm a t chh i s to r i cf i r es i z e s,and m anu a ltw e ak in gw a s p e r fo rm edto imp rov eth e ‘ sp r e adev en td ay s ’inpu t fu r th e r( F i gu r e4 .8) .Inadd i t ion , ana s s e s sm en to f ind i r e c tab so lu t ed i f f e r en c eand m e anbu rnp rob ab i l i tyw i th in c r e a s in g i t e r a t ion sgu id edth ed e c i s iontou s e30 ,000 i t e r a t ion s inf in a l mod e lrun s t oen su r es t ab l eBPv a lu e s .(App end i xC ) . 53 F igu re4 .8:‘Sp read even tdays’inpu tc rea tedf romMOD ISf i rep rog ress ionda ta . Ba rg raphisthe o r ig ina lp rog ress ionda tafo rf i resw i thaROS≥3 .0 ,wh ichwaslog is t ica l lysmoo thed(g reyl ine ) andsubsequen t lyre f inedth roughca l ib ra t ion( b lackdashedl ine) .Thenumbe ro fdayso ff i re sp readfo reach mode l ledfi reisd rawnf romtheca l ib ra tedd is t r ibu tion ,theva lueso fwh icha re d isp layedintheinse ttab le . 4 .2 .5F i reG row th Modu le Th ef i r eg row th modu l e in co rpo r a t e sth ei gn i t ion lo c a t ionw i thsp e c i f i edFBP S y s t emfu e l sand mod e l sf i r eg row thw i thsp e c i f i edw e a th e randdu r a t ionu s in gth e P rom e th eu sf i r eg row tha l go r i thm .Inth ef i r eg row thmodu l e , th enumb e ro f bu rn in ghou r sfo re a chd ayo fev e ryf i r e i ssp e c i f i edbyth eu s e r .Th ed e f au l to f6 hou r sw a sl e f tun ch an g ed .F i r e sm aybu rnfo r mo r eth an6hou r sp e rd ay ,bu t Bu rnP3 i ss imu l a t in gnoonw e a th e rcond i t ion sfo re a cho fth esp e c i f i edbu rn in gh ou r s. S in c eno ta l lbu rn in ghou r sm a t chth e in t en s i tyo fbu rn in g l ik e lytob ee xp e r i en c ed a tnoon ,th e r e i sth epo t en t i a ltoov e r e s t im a t ef i r eb eh av iou r i fth e l en g tho fth e bu rn in gd ay i ss e ttod ay l i gh thou r s .Th ehou r so fbu rn in gc anb e mod i f i eda f t e r c a l ib r a t iontofu r th e rf in e tun eth e mod e li fr equ i r ed , bu tth i sw a sno tfoundt ob e 54 n e c e s s a ryfo rth i sp ro j e c tdu etoth esu f f i c i en tm a t chb e tw e en mod e l l edandh i s to r i c f i r es i z ed i s t r ibu t ion sa ch i ev eddu r in gth ec a l ib r a t ionp ro c e s s . G r e enupandg r a s scur in gru l e sa r ea l sosp e c i f i edbyth eu s e rw i th inth ef i r e g row th modu l e .Th e s ep a r am e t e r scon t ro lfu e l mo i s tu r eb a s edons e a son a l v e g e t a t ions t a t e s(Bu rnP3U s e r’ sm anu a l2016 ) .T ru eg r a s sfu e ltyp e sdono te x i s t inth es tudya r e a ,bu tO1b ( s t and in gg r a s s )w a su s eda sap ro xyfo rbo g gyw i l low fu e ltyp e s .Toa l lowsu f f i c i en tsp r e ad inth e s efu e ltyp e scu r in gw a ss e tto70%fo r sp r in gand55%fo rsumm e r .Twog r e enupru l e sw e r eu s ed : insp r in gg r e enup i s o f f ,and insumm e rg r e enup i son .Th i sa l low sth edu al fu e lty p e s(D1 /D2 ,and M1 /M2 )top e r fo rm r e l a t iv etos e a son a lch a r a c t e r i s t i c s ; insp r in gth e s efu e ltyp e s a r e l e a f l e s s ,wh i l e insumm e rth e s efu e l sd i sp l aybu rn in gch a r a c t e r i s t i c so f l e a f ed fu e l s .Th ed a t eo fsw i t chb e tw e ensp r in gandsumm e r i sd e t e rm in e dbyth e s ep a r a t iono fsp r in gandsumm e r in i t i a l i gn i t iong r id s ,M ay31 / Jun e1 inth i sc a s e . 4 .2 .6Sen s i t iv i tyAna ly s i so fFue lC la s s i f i ca t ion s Tot e s tth ein f lu en c eo fFBPSy s t emfu e l sonBP,as en s i t iv i tyan a ly s i sw a s p e r fo rm ed .I tw a sr e co gn i z eda tth eou t s e tth a ttwoou t com e sw e r epo s s ib l e ;th e mod e l i ss en s i t iv etofu e ltyp ec l a s s i f i c a t ion ,o r i t i sno ts en s i t iv etofu e ltyp e c l a s s i f i c a t ion .Th e mod e lw a srunw i thtwoadd i t ion a ls c en a r io s u s in gb a s e l in e w e a th e r, bu tw i thtwoa l t e rn a t iv efu e ltyp eg r id s :1 )C an fu e l s ,and2 )N a t ion a lFu e l s . I tshou ldb eno t edth a tC an fu e l sw a sn ev e rg round v a l id a t edandw a scho s enh e r e fo rd i sp l aypu rpo s e son ly .Th ena t ion a lfu e l sg r idhow ev e r, w a sbu i l tth rou gha n e a r e s tn e i ghbo r in t e rpo l a t iono fv e g e t a t ion(B e audo ine ta l .2014 )th a tw a s 55 sub s equ en t lyt r an s l a t ed in toFBPSy s t emfu e ltyp e sbyth eCF S , andupd a t ed in co l l abo r a t ionw i thf i r em an a g em en ta g en c i e s , in c lud in gY ukon W i ld f i r e M an a g em en tB r an ch. 4 .3Re su l t s Ato t a lo fe i gh tBu rnP3s c en a r io sw e r eruntoa s s e s showp ro j e c t edfu tu r e w e a th e rwou ld in f lu en c ep r ed i c t edbu rnp rob ab i l i ty:1 )Ob s e rv ed ,2 )B a s e l in e ,3 ) 2050 sCGCM ,4 )2050 sH ad l ey ,5 )2050 sIP SL, 6 )2080 sCGCM ,7)2080 sH ad l ey ,and 8 )2080 sIPSL .As id ebys id ecomp a r i son i sp r e s en t edh e r etov i su a l i z eth er an g e in BPamon ge i gh ts c en a r io s(F i gu r e4 .9 ) , a lon gw i that ab l ed ep i c t in gmod e l l edf i r e s i z e scomp a r edtoh i s to r i cf i r es i z e s(T ab l e4 .2 ) .I nd iv idu a lm ap sandamo r e d e t a i l edf i r es i z ean a ly s i s fo l lowinth esub s e c t ion sb e low . 56 F igu re4 .9:Bu rnp r obab i l i tyscena r iosfo rtheTes l inT l ing i tT rad i t iona lTe r r i to ry.Theobse rved scena r ioisac tua lwea the rda ta(19862015 ),andinc ludedhe refo rcompa r ison .Base l ineis s imu la tedcu r ren twea the r(19802010 ),onwh ichfu tu rep red ic t ionsa rebased .Therea res ix fu tu rescena r ios(3 GCMsx2t imepe r iods) . 57 Tab le4 .2.Scena r iosumma rys ta t is t icscompar ing mode l ledf i res izestoh is to r icf i res izes(ha ) . Summa ry 2050s 2050 2050 2080 2080 2080 FHS ize Obs . Base . S ta ts CAN HAD IPSL CAN HAD IPSL M in 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 s t 1 Qu . 82 79 61 57 63 72 66 65 79 Med ian 337 326 250 229 264 317 278 273 370 Mean 4074 .64 3024 .94 2473 .71 2263 .79 2699 .73 3431 2821 .56 2781 .8 4144 .59 rd 3 Qu . 1647 1811 1386 1285 1504 1894 1572 1548 2269 Max 143 ,237 162, 774 111, 370 113, 406 132, 662 159, 703 134, 746 127, 911 242, 082 4 .3.1Ob se rved Th eob s e rv edw e a th e rp e r iods c en a r io( r e co rd edd a t af rom1986–2015 ) ou tpu tBP ind i c a t e sth e l a r g e s tf i r eh a z a rde x i s t s inth eF a tL ak e l and s c ap eun i t ,w i th am a x imumBPo f1 .67%(F i gu r e4 .10 ) .Th eNo r thN i su t l inandSou thN isu t l in l and s c ap eun i t sa l sod i sp l ay h i gh erBPr e l a t iv etoth er e s to fth es tudya r e a(F i gu r e 4 .10) .Agoodf i tb e tw e en mod e l l edf i r es i z eandh i s to r i cf i r es i z ew a sa ch i ev ed ,bu t rdq th eob s e rv edp e r iod look stoov e r e s t im a t eth enumb e ro fm ids i z eto3 u a r t i l e f i r e sr e l a t iv etoth eh i s to r i cf i r es i z e s(T ab l e4 .2 , F i gu r e4 .10) . S in c et h eob s e rv ed s c en a r iod idno tin fo rmth ec a l ib r a t ionp ro c e s s , i ti sp rov id edh e r efo rcomp a r i son on ly ,andi t i sno ttob ecomp a r edtofu tu r es c en a r io swh i chw e r ebu i l tuponth e b a s e l in es c en a r io . 58 F igu re4 .10: Obse rvedwea the rpe r iod(1986 2015 )bu rnp robab i l i tyes t ima te ,a longw i thboxp lo t ( lowe rle f t )anddens i typ lo t( lowe rr igh t )compa r ingh is to r icand mode l ledf i res ized is t r ibu t ions. 59 4 .3.2Ba se l ine Th eb a s e l in ew e a th e rp e r iod(s imu l a t edd a t af rom1981–2010 )a c t sa sa con t ro ls c en a r ioands t a r t in gpo in tfo rp ro j e c t iono ffu tu r es c en a r io sv i aGCM s .L ik e th eob s e rv eds c en a r io ,r e l a t iv eBP i sg r e a t e r inth eF a tL ak e l and s c ap eun i t ,bu tw i th asm a l l e rm a x imumth anth eob s e rv eds c en a r ioo f1 .27%v s .1 .67% r e sp e c t iv e ly (F i gu r e4 .11v s .F i gu r e4 .10 ) .Th eb a s e l in ew e a th e r l i s tgu id edth ec al ib r a t ion p ro c e s s ,andth e r e i sag oodf i tb e tw e en mod e l l edandh i s to r i cf i r es i z ed i s t r ibu t ion s, a l thou ghth e r e i sanund e r e s t im a t iono f mod e l l edf i r es i z ecomp a r edtoth eh i s to r i c ; ag r e a t e rnumb e ro ff i r e so fsm a l ls i z ea r e mod e l l eda tth ee xp en s eo ff i r e so f l a r g e r s i z e(F i gu r e4 .11 ) . Th i s i sno tc au s efo rcon c e rn ,bu tr a th e ran ind i c a t ionth a tth e s imu l a t edb a s e l in ew e a th e rund e r e s t im a t e sf i r ea c t iv i tys l i gh t l ycomp a r edtoth e h i s to r i cp e r iod, wh i ch in c lud e sa l lr e co rd edf i r e sg r e a t e rth an10h a ins i z eb e tw e en 19462015. Th eb a s e l in e mod e l l edf i r es i z ed i s t r ibu t ionw a sa c c ep t ab lys im i l a rto th eh i s to r i cf i r es i z ed i s t r ibu t iontop ro c e edw i thrunn in gfu tu r es c en a r io s . 60 F igu re4 .11:Base l inewea the r(s imu la ted1980–2010 )bu rnp robab i l i tyes t ima te ,a longw i th boxp lo t(lowe rle f t )anddens i typ lo t( lowe rr igh t )compa r ingh i s to r icand mode l ledf i res ize. 61 4 .3.32050 sC GCM Th e2050 sCGCMs c en a r ioshow s low e rBPr e l a t iv etoth eb a s e l in e(F i gu r e 4 .9) .Ou tpu tBP ,d e sp i t es im i l a rr e l a t iv eho t spo tp a t t e rn s , i sr edu c edtoa m a x imum 1 .12% .D e sp i t eh i gh e rt emp e r a tu r e s , in c r e a s edp r e c ip i t a t ionund e rth i sGCM low e r edth eFW Ir e l a t iv etob a s e l in e inth ef i r ew e a th e r l i s t s (F i gu r e4 .7 ) .Mod e l l ed f i r es i z eov e r e s t im a t e ssm a l lf i r e scomp a r edtoth eh i s to r i cf i r es i z ed i s t r ibu t ion (T ab l e4 .2 ,andF i gu r e4 .12 ) .O fa l lth es c en a r io s ,th e2050 sCGCMh a sth e mo s t con s e rv a t iv ee s t im a t eo fBP . 62 F igu re4 .12:2050sCGCMbu rnp robab i l i tyes t ima te ,a longw i thboxp lo t(lowe rle f t )anddens i ty p lo t(lowe rr igh t )compa r ingh i s to r icand mode l ledf i res izes. 63 4 .3 .42050Had ley Th e2050 sH ad l eys c en a r io(F i gu r e4 .13 )show sg r e a t e rBPth ant h e2050 CGCMs c en a r io(F i gu r e4 .12) , ind i c a t in gth a tth e2050 sH ad l eys c en a r iop r ed i c t s c l im a t ech an g e mo r econdu c iv etow i ld f i r ea c t iv i tyth anth e2050 sCGCMs c en a r io fo rth es tudya r e a .Summ a rys t a t i s t i c sshowth e2050 sH ad l eys c en a r ior e su l t s in l a r g e rs imu l a t edf i r e sth an th e2050 sCGCMs c en a r iofo ra l lsumm a rys t a t i s t i c s (T ab l e4 .2 ) .F i r es i z e s inth e2050 sH ad l eys c en a r ioa r ea l so mu chc lo s e rtob a s e l in e th an2050 sCGCM ,and inf a c te x c e edb a s e l in efo ra l ls t a t i s t i c s(T ab l e4 .2 ) .D e sp i t e th i s ,th em a xBPo fth eb a s e l in es c en a r ioe x c e ed sth a to f2050 sH ad l ey(1 .27% v e r sus1 .22%r e sp e c t iv e ly ;F i gu r e s4 .11v s .4 .13 ) ,wh i ch i sn e g l i g ib l eg iv enBP i s in f lu en c edbyo th e rs to ch a s t i cv a r i ab l e s , andth i sd i f f e r en c em ayno tb edu etoth e w e a th e r l i s ta lon e .Th eF a tL ak eandNo r thN i su t l in l and s c ap eun i t sd i sp l ayth e g r e a t e s tr e l a t iv eBP inth es tudya r e a(F i gu r e4 .13) .Un l ik eth eCGCM ,th eH ad l ey s c en a r iodo e sn ’ tapp e a rtop r ed i c t mu chch an g eb e tw e enth eb a s e l in ep e r iodand th e2050 s int e rm so fw e a th e rp a r am e t e r sr e f l e c t ed inth eg en e r a t edw e a th e r l i s t s , w i tht emp e r a tu r e ,p r e c ip i t a t ion ,andFW Iv a lu ed i s t r ibu t ion sb e in gv e rys im i l a r b e tw e enth e2050 sH ad l eyandb a s e l in e(F i gu r e4 .7) .Th i se xp l a in sth er e s emb l an c e o fth ef in a lBP m ap sb e tw e enb a s el in eand2050 sH ad l ey(F i gu r e4 .9 ) . 64 F igu re4 .13:2050sHad leybu rnp robab i l i tyes t ima te ,a longw i thboxp lo t( lowe rle f t )anddens i ty p lo t( lowe rr igh t )compa r ingh is to r icand mode l ledf i res ize . 65 4 .3 .52050 sIPSL Th e2050 sIP SLs c en a r iod i sp l ay sa m a x imumou tpu tBPo f1 .6%(F i gu r e 4 .14) ,g r e a t e rth anbo thth eth e2050 sCGCM(1 .12% ;F i gu r e4 .12 )and2050 sH ad l ey s c en a r io s(1 .22% ;F i gu r e4 .13 ) .O fa l lth es c en a r io s ,on lyth e2080IP SLs c en a r ioh a s h i gh e rBP(F i gu r e4 .9) .M a x imumbu rnp rob ab i l i tyapp e a r s inth eF a tL ak e l and s c ap eun i t ,w i thNo r thN i su t l inandSou thN i su t l in l and s c ap e un i t sa l soshow in g r e l a t iv e lyh i ghBP(F i gu r e4 .14 ) .Mod e l l edf i r es i z e sa r e l a r g e rth anth eo th e r2050 s s c en a r io sand mu ch l a r g e rth anb a s e l in efo ra l lsumm a rys t a t i s t i c s(T ab l e4 .2 ) , r e su l t in ging r e a t e rob s e rv edBP .Th e2050 sIP SLGCMp r ed i c t sg r e a t e rf i r e condu c iv ew e a th e rth anth eo th e r2050 sGCM sfo rth es tudya r e aint e r m so fFW I d i s t r ibu t ion(F i gu r e4 .7) . Mod e l l edf i r es i z ev e ryc lo s e ly m a t ch e sth eh i s to r i c d i s tr ibu t ion(F i gu r e4 .14 ) . 66 F igu re4 .14:2050sIPSLbu rnp ro bab i l i tyes t ima te ,w i thboxp lo t(lowe rle f t )anddens i typ lo t( lowe r r igh t )compa r ingh i s to r icand mode l ledf i res ize. 67 4 .3 .62080 sCGCM 2080 sCGCMh a sh i gh erBPth an2050 sCGCM(F i g u r e4 .9) . Th e2080 sCGCM s c en a r ioh a ss l i gh t lyh i gh e rBPr e l a t iv etoth eb a s e l in es c en a r iow i tha m a x imumBP o f1 .4v s .1 .27r e sp e c t iv e ly(F i gu r e4 .15v s .4 .11) .On c ea g a in ,th eF a tL ak e l and s c ap e un i tshow sth e l a r g e s tr e l a t iv eBP,w i thNo r thN i su t l inandSou thN i su t l in l and s c ap e un i t sa l sopo s s e s s in gh i gh e rBPr e l a t iv etoth er e s to fth es tudya r e a(F i gu r e4 .15 ) . R e l a t iv eto2050 sCGCM ,pro j e c t ed m e anp r e c ip i t a t ioni sr edu c ed ,t emp e r a tu r e i s in c r e a s ed , andFW Iv a lu e sa r eh i gh e r(F i gu r e4 .7 ) .A l thou ghsm a l l e rw i ld f i r e sa r e s t i l lov e r e s t im a t eda tth ee xp en s eo f l a r g ef i r escomp a r edtoth eh i s to r i cf i r es i z e d i s t r ibu t ion(T ab l e4 .2 ,andF i gu r e4 .15 ) ,th ed i f f e r en c e i s l e s sp ronoun c edth anth a t o fth e2050 sCGCMs c en a r io ,m e an in gth e2080 sCGCMs c en a r io i sc lo s e rtoth e e xp e c t edh i s t o r i cf i r es i z ed i s t r ibu t ion . 68 F igu re4 .15:2080sCGCMbu rnp robab i l i tyes t ima te ,a longw i thboxp lo t(lowe rle f t )anddens i ty p lo t(lowe rr igh t )compa r ingh i s to r icand mode l ledf i res izes. 69 4 .3 .72080 sHad ley Th e2080 sH ad l eys c en a r ioh a sg r e a t e rBPth anth e2050 sH ad l eys c en a r io, w i th m a x imumBP in c r e a s in gto1 .37%comp a r edto1 .22%r e sp e c t iv e ly(F i gu r e s 4 .16v s .4 .13) . Th esumm a rys t a t i s t i c sshow2080 sH ad l eyp romo t e s l a r g e rf i r es i z e s s tq too c cu ramon g mod e l l edf i r e s ,w i th1 u a r t i l e ,m e an ,m ed i anand3rdqu a r t i l e b e in gs l i gh t lyg r e a t e rth a n2050 sH ad l eys t a t i s t i c s(T ab l e4 .2 ) .In t e r e s t in g ly , th em a x f i r es i z efo rth e2080 sH ad l eys c en a r io i sl e s sth anth a tfo rth e2050 sH ad l ey s c en a r io(127 ,911h av s .132 ,662h ar e sp e c t iv e ly; T ab l e4 .2) . How ev e r ,th e s es i z e s a r ea c c ep t ab lyc lo s e ,andth em a x imum f i r es i z e i sno tth eb e s ts t a t i s t i ctou s ewh en comp a r in gs c en a r io s ,a s i t i s l im i t edby l and s c ap ef e a tu r e sandfu e l av a i l ab i l i tya s mu cha sth ef i r ew e a th e r l i s tp a r am e t e r s( MA. P a r i s i en,p e r son a lcommun i c a t ion , 2017 ). Th e2080 sH ad l eyw e a th e r l i s th a sg r e a t e rp r e c ip i t a t ion ,h i gh e rt emp e r a tu r e, andh i gh e rFW Iv a lu e s r e l a t iv eto2050 sH ad l ey(F i gu r e4 .7 ) .Sm a l lf i r e sa r ea g a in ov e r e s t im a t edr e l a t iv etoth eh i s to r i cfi r es i z ed i s t r ibu t ion(F i gu r e4 .16 ) . 70 F igu re4 .16:2080sHad leybu rnp robab i l i tyes t ima te ,a longw i thboxp lo t(lowe rle f t )anddens i ty p lo t(lowe rr igh t )compa r i ngh is to r icand mode l ledf i res ize . 71 4 .3 .82080 sIPSL Th e2080 sIP SLs c en a r iod i sp l ay sth eh i gh e s tBPamon ga l ls c en a r io s(F i gu r e 4 .9) ,w i th am a x imumBPo f1 .78% con c en t r a t ed inth eF a tL ak e l and s c ap eun i t ,bu t No r thN i su t l inandSou thN i su t l in l and s c ap eun i t sa l soh av eh i ghr e l a t iv eBP(F i gu r e 4 .17) .Th e2080 sIP SLs c en a r iow e a th e r l i s th a sg r e a t e rm e anp r e c ip i t a t ionth anany o th e rs c en a r io,y e ta l sopo s s e s s e s h i gh e rt emp e r a tu r e,andth eh i gh e s td i s t r ibu t ion o fFW Iv a lu e samon g s ta l ls c en a r io s(F i gu r e4 .7 ) .Summ a rys t a t i s t i c sfo rf i r es i z e e x c e eda l lo th e rs c en a r io s ,andth eh i s to r i cf i r ed i s t r ibu t ion(T ab l e4 .2 ) .Th e mod e l l edf i r es i z ed i s t r ibu t ion c lo s e ly m a t ch e sth a to fth eh i s to r i c( F i gu r e4 .17) . 72 F igu re4 .17:2080sIPSLbu rnp robab i l i tyes t ima te ,a longw i thboxp lo t(lowe rle f t )anddens i typ lo t ( lowe rr igh t )compa r ingh is to r icand mode l ledf i res ize . 73 4 .3.9Sen s i t iv i tyAna ly s i s o fFue lC la s s i f i ca t ion s I tw a so f in t e r e s twh e th e rBu rn P3w a ss en s i t iv etofu e l s inth i ss tudya r e a . A lon gw i thp rov id in g mu l t ip l efu tu r ec l im a t es c en a r io s ,th eBu rnP3 mod e lw a srun w i thtwoadd i t ion a lFBPSy s t emfu e ls c en a r io s , ine f f e c tp e r fo rm in gas en s i t iv i ty an a ly s i s .Th e twoa l t e rn a t iv eFBPSy s t emfu e lc l a s s i f i c a t ion sw e r e :1 ) Can fu e l s ,and 2 )Na t ion a l .A l lo th e r mod e l inpu t sw e r eh e ldcon s t an tto on lya s s e s sth ee f f e c to f fu e lonou tpu tBP . Th er e su l t sy i e ld edamu chh i gh e rBPp r ed i c t ionfo rth eCan fu e l ss c en a r io , w i tham a x imumBPo f1 .77% ,wh i ch i sa lmo s ta sh i gha sth eg r e a t e s tBPfu tu r e s c en a r io ,2080 sIP SL(F i gu r e4 .17) . How ev e r ,h i gh e rBP i sd i sp e r s edth rou ghou t mu ch mo r eo fth estudya r e a(F i gu r e4 .18 ) .Th ed i s t r ibu t iono f mod e l l edf i r es i z efo r th eCan fu e l ss c en a r ioov e r e s t im a t e s l a r g e rf i r e sr e l a t iv etoh i s to r i c (F i gu r e4 .18 ) ; s in c eth ec a l ib r a t ionp ro c edu r ew a sp e r fo rm edonth eb a s e l in es c en a r io ,th e Can fu e l ss c en a r io i sno tr e f l e c t iv eo fth eh i s to r i cf i r er e g im e ,and i sthu sfo r i l lu s t r a t iv e pu rpo s e son ly .Inco mp a r i son , th en a t ion a ls c en a r ioh a sa mu ch low e rBP comp a r edtobo thth eb a s e l in eandC an fu e l ss c en a r io s ,andund e r e s t im a t e s mod e l l edf i r es i z e comp a r edtoh i s to r i c(F i gu r e4 .18 ) . 74 F igu re4 .18:Sens i t iv i tyAna lys is :A )Base l ineisrep roducedhe reandisiden t ica ltobase l inebu rn p robab i l i tydep ic tedinF igu re4 .9andF igu re4 .11,B )Can fue lsisano lde rCanadaw ideda tase t , C )Na t iona lisanupda teda t temp ta taCanadaw ideda tase t . 75 4 .4D i s cu s s ion Th eu s eo fBu rnP3to mod e lfu tu r ep ro j e c t edw e a th e rs c en a r io s in c r e a s e s th eund e r s t and in go fw i ld f i r er i sk inth eTTTT ,anda l low sag r e a t e r in tu i t iono fth e in t e r s e c t in gcompon en t s l e ad in gtoBP ,ev en i fth econ t r ibu t ion so fe a cho fth e s e in f lu en c e s i sd i f f i cu l tto i so l a t equ an t i t a t iv e ly(P a r i s i ene ta l .2011 ) . Th i sp ro j e c th a s r e in fo r c edsom eo fth eund e r s t a nd in g sh e ldbycommun i ty m emb e r s ,p r im a r i lyth a t T e s l in i sp ron etoL IF s ,andh a ss e rv eda sac a t a ly s tfo rcon s id e r in gth er an g eo f fu tu r ew i ld f i r eh a z a rd . 4 .4 .1Impo r tan ceo fFBPSy s temFue lC la s s i f i ca t ion I tw a sfoundth a tfu e l sm a t t e r ,and mo r eg en e r a l lyd a t am a t t e r s .Acon s i s t en t t r end ind i c a t e sh i gh e rr e l a t iv ew i ld f i r er i sk inth eF a tL ak e ,No r thN i su t l in ,and Sou thN i su t l in l and s c ap eun i t s .Th e s er e g ion so fh i ghBPw e r efoundtoco in c id e w i thcon t inuou scon i f e rs t and s ,p a r t i cu l a r lyC2 ,wh i ch i sv e rycondu c iv eto f i r e sp r e ad . S t anda g ecou ldb eap ro xyfo rw i ld f i r eh a z a rd inth ebo r e a lfo r e s t ,b e in g th a tf i r eb eh av iou r i safun c t iono ffu e lav a i l ab l efo rbu rn in g ;a l thou gh in t e r a c t ion s b e tw e ens t anda g eand l and s c ap ef e a tu r e sa r ecomp l e x ,s t anda g em ayh e lpid en t i fy a r e a so fg r e a t e rf i r eh a z a rd(E rn ie ta l .2017 ) .Th eF a tL ak e ,No r thN i su t l in ,and Sou thN i su t l in l and s c ap eun i t sh av eno te xp e r i en c edanyL IF s inth er e co rd edf i r e h i s to ryd a t in gb a ckto1946 ,andw e r em i s s edbyth e1950and1958w i ld f i r e s.I t i s po s s ib l eth e s er e g ion so fm a tu r esp ru c es t and sh av ee s c ap edf i r edu etoa ‘ f i r e sh adow ’e f f e c t ,wh e r eby l e s sf l amm ab l ef e a tu r e s c r e a t eana r e ao fr edu c edBPonth e l e es id eo fa l e s sf l amm ab l eo r in f l amm ab l ef e a tu r e f romth ed i r e c t iono fdom in an t 76 w ind( F inn ey2005 ;P a r i s i ene ta l .2010 ). T e s l in l ak el ik e lyp rov id e s su chane f f e c tin th eF a tL ak er e g ion ,wh i l e moun t a inr an g e sp rov id esu chane f f e c tinth eN i su t l in l and s c ap eun i t s . Th e i so l a t iono fth e s econ t inuou sp a t che so fC2f romp a s tL IF sh e lp s e xp l a inth eh i gh e re s t im a t edBPfo rth e s er e g ion s . Du etoth eed g ee f f e c tc r e a t ed inth ecompo s i t eFBPSy s t emfu e l s l ay e r , ou tpu tBP m ap s(F i gu r e4 .9 ) ,showh i gh e rr i skcon c en t r a t ed ina r e a scon s t ru c t ed f romth eupd a t edv e g e t a t iond a t a ,b e c au s eth e s er e g ion scon t a in mo r eC2th anth e n a t ion a lfu e l spo r t iono fth ecompo s i t eFBPd a t a s e t .Th i s i s mo r ec l e a r lyv i s ib l e in th er e su l t so fth es en s i t iv i tyan a ly s i s ,wh e r ead i s t in c tbound a rye f f e c tco in c id in g w i thth esw i t chb e tw e env e g e t a t iond e r iv edandn a t ion a lfu e ltyp ec l a s s i f i c a t ion s i s no t i c e ab l e inth eb a s e l in es c en a r io ,bu tno t inth eC an fu e l so rN a t ion a ls c en a r io s . Th e r e fo r e ,c l ipp in gth eou tpu tBP m ap sdowntoth ev e g e t a t ione x t en t in in i t i a l fo r e s tm an a g em en tp l ann in ga roundT e s l ini sr e comm end ed ino rd e rto m in im i z e d i s to r t ion inBPv a lu e sc au s edbyed g ee f f e c to ftwod i f f e r en tFBPSy s t emfu e l c l a s s i f i c a t ions ch em e s . 4 .4 .2Imp l i ca t ion so fC l ima teChangeonBP Inb iom a s sr i ch ,r a r e lyd rye co sy s t em s , l ik eth ebo r e a lfo r e s t ,i ti se xp e c t ed c l im a t ech an g ecou ld imp a c tfu e l mo i s tu r e ,byp ro lon g in gp e r iod sw i thou t p r e c ip i t a t ionand in c r e a s in gsumm e rt emp e r a tu r e s ,wh i chcou ld l e adto l a r g e rf i r e s i z e s(M eyne ta l .2007 ) .How ev e r ,c l im a t ech an g e i ssp a t i a l l yv a r i ab l e(Podu rand Wo t ton2010 ),and t r en d s inT e s l info rth e2050 s(20312060)showon lysm a l l ch an g e s inp r ed i c t edBP ,b e fo r e in c r e a s in gfo rth e2080 s(2061 2090 ). I tw a sfound 77 th a tth eth r e eGCM scho s enp rov id eas a t i s f a c to ryr an g eo fs c en a r io s ,w i thCGCM b e in gcon s e rv a t iv e ,H ad l eyb e in g in t e rm ed i a t e ,andIP SLp r ed i c t in gg r e a t e rch an g e , af ind in gcon s i s t en tw i tho th e rl i t e r a tu r ecomp a r in gth e s eGCM s (W an ge ta l .2015; d eG roo te ta l .2013) . Inth eTTTT ,th e2050 sCGCMs c en a r iop r ed i c t edr edu c edBPr e l a t iv eto b a s e l in e, l i k e lydu eto in c r e a s edp ro j e c t edp r e c ip i t a t ionov e r comp en s a t in gfo r in c r e a s ed t emp e r a tu r e ,wh i chr e su l t ed inar edu c t iono fFW ISy s t emv a lu e sinth e w e a th e r l i s t .2050 sH ad l eyBPw a sfoundtob ev e rycomp a r ab l etob a s e l in eBP, w i th on lyas l i gh t in c r e a s e int emp e r a tu r eands l i gh td e c r e a s e inp r e c ip i t a t ion cu lm in a t in g inaFW Iv a lu ed i s t r ibu t ions im i l a rtoth a to fth eb a s e l in ew e a th e r l i s t . Th eon ly2050 ss c en a r ior e su l t in g inno t i c e ab ly in c r e a s edBPw a sth a to fth eIP SL GCM , inwh i chin c r e a s edp r e c ip i t a t ion inth ef i r ew e a th e r l i s t i scoun t e r a c t edby in c r e a s edt emp e r a tu r eandd e c r e a s edr e l a t iv ehum id i ty ,wh i chp rov id efo rg r e a t e r FW Iv a lu e s. Th e in c r e a s edp r e c ip i t a t ionp ro j e c t edbyth eGCM s i scon s i s t en tw i th th ef ind in g so fP r i c ee ta l .(2013 ) , wh i chp r ed i c t ed in c r e a s edp r e c ip i t a t iona c ro s sth e C an ad i anbo r e a l ,w i tha10%20% in c r e a s e inth ebo r e a lco rd i l l e r ae co zon e .I fth e in t e rm ed i a t eH ad l eyGCM i sa s sum edtor ep r e s en tanav e r a g eb e tw e enth e th r e e GCM s ,f i r eh a z a rdshou ldb ee xp e c t edtor em a inc lo s etob a s e l in e ,w i th l im i t ed con s equ en c e sf romc l im a t ech an g eonf i r ea c t iv i tyinth esho r tt e rmfo rth eTTTT . Th i si sno ttos ayf i r eh a z a rd i sno t p r e s en t ,qu i t eth econ t r a ry ,bu tr a th e rth a tth e con t r ibu t iono fc l im a t ech an g e i sno te xp e c t edtob ed i s c e rn ab l ef romth eob s e rv ed p e r iodov e rth e2050 st im ep e r iod .Cl im a t ech an g e i s mo r e l ik e lytoh av ean imp a c t onf i r eh a z a rd inth e2080 st im ep e r iod, wh e r ep ro j e c t ed in c r e a s in gt emp e r a tu r e 78 o f f s e t sp ro j e c t ed in c r e a s in gp r e c ip i t a t ion ,anda l lt h r e e2080 sGCMs c en a r io se x c e ed b a s e l in eBP. Th e s ef ind in g sa r econ s i s t en tw i thth e in t e rp r e t a t ionth a tT e s l in i sp ron eto cy c l i c a lw e a th e rp a t t e rn s , inwh i chf i r econdu c iv ed ry in gt r end so c cu ra ta mu l t i d e c ad a lt empo r a ls c a l e .I t i sun c l e a rwh e th e rth i si sr andomv a r i a t ionwh i c h cu lm in a t e s inL IFev en t sono c c a s ion ,p rov id in gi gn i t ionandad equ a t efu e l a r e av a i l ab l e .I th a sb e enc au t ion edth a t inbo r e a lfo r e s t sp ron eto l a r g eannu a l v a r i a t ion s ina r e abu rn t ,ob s e rv edch an g e sm ayb em i s in t e rp r e t eda sth ere su l to f c l im a t ech an g ewh enwh a t i sb e in gob s e rv ed i sr andomv a r i an c e inth ef i r er e g im e (A rm s t ron g1999 ) .Th i scomp l i c a t e sth ea s s e s sm en to fBPfo rth eT e s l inr e g ion ,a s i t i sunknownhowc lo s e lyth eGCM su t i l i z ed inth i sp ro j e c ta c coun tfo rth e mu l t i d ec ad a lc l im a t ep a t t e rn sob s e rv ed inth es tudya r e a .I fth er e g ion i s in f lu en c edby cy c l i c a lc l im a t et r end s ,th en i tapp e a r sth a tth eb a s e l in es imu l a t edp e r iod(1981 2010 )co in c id e dw i thacoo l e rp e r iod ,andsup e r impo s in gc l im a t ech an g eona w a rm e r /d r i e rb a se l in ep e r iodwou ldp e rh ap sh av ey i e ld ed mo r ef i r e condu c iv e w e a th e rfo rth e mod e l l edf i r e so ffu tu r es c en a r io s . Oth e rf a c to r scon t r ibu t etoth eun c e r t a in tyo ffu tu r ef i r eh a z a rdfo rth eTTTT . Th ee f f e c to fc l im a t ech an g ecou ldb ecoun t e r a c t edo re x a c e rb a t edbya l t e r ed ve g e t a t ionf e edb a ck sf rom in c r e a s in gw i ld f i r ea c t iv i ty ,wh i ch cou ldf avou rth e p rop a g a t iono f l e s sf l amm ab l ed e c iduou sv e g e t a t ion inr e spon s e(K e l lye ta l2013 ) . Inadd i t ion ,c l im a t ech an g e i se xp e c t edto in c r e a s eth enumb e ro fd ay scondu c iv eto f i r esp r e ad(W an ge ta l .2015 ) .Th ebo r e a lfo r e s t i sa l sosu s c ep t ib l etofo r e s t p a tho g enand in s e c tou tb r e ak sund e rach an g in gc l im a t e(P r i c ee ta l .2013 ) .O f 79 con c e rni s apo s s ib l ee xp an s iono f Moun t a inP in eB e e t l e in toth eTTTT ,ana r e ao f e x t en s iv em a tu r ep in efo r e s t s . Fu r th e rmo r e ,th ean t i c ip a t ed in c r e a s edf r equ en cyo f E lN inoSou th e rnO s c i l l a t ion(EN SO )andP a c i f i cD e c ad a lO sc i l l a t ion(PDO ) in f lu en c e s w i l l l ik e ly in c r e a s ef i r ea c t iv i ty(F l ann i g ane ta l .2005 ) .Th e s eadd i t ion a l in f lu en c e s fu r th e rco mp l i c a t eth ea s s e s sm en to fBPfo rth i sr e g ion . 4 .4 .3Na tu ra lD i s tu rban ceReg imeCon s ide ra t ion s Emu l a t iono fn a tu r a ld i s tu rb an c e i s l im i t edbyav a i l ab l eh i s to r i cin fo rm a t ion ( S to ckd a l ee ta l .2016 ) .I th a sb e ena r gu edth a tf i r er e tu rn in t e rv a l s inth ebo r e a l fo r e s ta r epoo r lyp r ed i c t edbyw e a th e rr e co rd so fth ep a s ts ev e r a ld e c ad e s(K e l lye t a l .2013 ) .Asho r t a g eo fd e t a i l edf i r er e g im e in fo rm a t ionandw e a th e rd a t afo rth e T e s l inr e g ion m ak e s i td i f f i cu l ttor econ s t ru c tan a tu r a lf i r er e g im efo rth ea r e a ,and p a s tw i ld f i r es i z ed i s t r ibu t iond a t afo rth eTTTT(19462015 ) i sno tn e c e s s a r i lya p r ed i c to ro ffu tu r et r end s .How ev e r ,th i sd a t aw a sane x c e l l en ts t a r t in gpo in ton wh i chtoc r e a t e inpu t sands e rv ea sapo in to fcomp a r i sonto mod e l l edf i r es i z e s .I f th er an g eo fw i ld f i r eb eh av iou r in co rpo r a t ed in toth em od e ldo e sno tin c lud e e x t r em e sn o ts e en inth ef i r er e co rd , i t i spo s s ib l eth e mod e lw i l lund e r e s t im a t ef i r e h a z a rd .Th i sm ayb ee sp ec i a l lyt ru eo fsp r in gf i r eh a z a rd,w i thf i r es e a sont end in gto s t a r tmu che a r l i e r inth ebo r e a lfo r e s tth anp r ev iou s lyob s e rv ed(F l ann i g ane ta l . 2013 ) .An a tu r a lf i r er e g im em ayno tn e c e s s a r i lyev enb ed e s i r edbyth ecommun i ty o fT e s l inb e c au s e i te xpo s e sth ecommun i tytoth er i sko fe xp e r i en c in gL IF s.R a th e r , th ecommun i ty m ayw i shtoa ch i ev eas t ab l ee co lo g i c a ls t a t e , in co rpo r a t in ga 80 r edu c t ioninw i ld f i r er i skcomp a r edtowh a to c cu r r edh i s to r i c a l ly ,p a r t i cu l a r ly inth e w i ld l andu rb an in t e r f a c ea roundth ecommun i tyo fT e s l in . 4 .4 .4Bu rnP3l im i ta t ion s Th eou tpu tm ap sa r eab e s te s t im a t eo fbu rnp rob ab i l i tyund e rd i f f e r en tGCM s c en a r io s ,andp rov id ear an g eo fBPs c en a r io s .Bu rnp rob ab i l i ty i sb e s t in t e rp r e t ed inar e l a t iv es en s e ;andc au t ion i sadv i s ed inr e ad in g in toth ev i su a lco lou rs ch em e u s ed inthe m ap s .Ev en inth e mo s ts ev e r es c en a r io ,2080IP SL ,m a x imumBPw a s on ly1 .78% ,wh i ch i sar e l a t iv e ly lowch an c eo fbu rn in g .Th i s i scon s i s t en tw i thth e ob s e rv a t ionth a tth er e g ion i sp ron etoL IF s . Th etim ecomm i tm en tr equ i r edtorunBu rn P3mod e l sw i thsu f f i c i en t i t e r a t ion s i sapo t en t i a lh ind r an c etoth e s ek ind so fp ro j e c t s .G r an t ed , mu cho fth e r e sou r c econ sum in gpo r t iono fth i sp ro j e c tw a s in l e a rn in gtou s eBu rn P3and i t s compon en tp a r t s , anda cqu i r in gth en e c e s s a ryt e chn iqu e s inbo thA r cM apandRto bu i ldth ep ro j e c tinpu t s .Th i sau tho rwou ldnow f ind i t l e s so fat im ecomm i tm en tto runas im i l a rp ro j e c tfo ran ews tudya r e a .Non e th e l e s s ,m anyo fth ee a r l i e r e xp lo r a to rys c en a r io s inBu rn P3 ,wh i ch inth em s e lv e s in fo rm ed imp rov em en t son s c en a r io s ,cu l m in a t in g in th ef in a l mod e lrun s , cou ldh av eb e ene xp ed i t ed i fg r e a t e r compu t in gpow e rw a sav a i l ab l e . Mu l t ip l ed ay sw e r er equ i r edtoruns imu l a t ion son th em a ch in eav a i l ab l e .F in a l mod e lrun so fag r e a t e rnumb e ro f i t e r a t ion stoen su r e s t ab i l i tyw e r ep e r fo rm edon mo r epow e r fu lm a ch in e sav a i l ab l etoCF Sr e s e a r ch e r s . Nod e t a i l edan a ly s i so fth ef i r e in t en s i tyo f mod e l l edf i r e sw a sc a r r i edou t in th i ss tudy .Du etocompu t a t ion a l l im i t s , BPw a s mod e l l edbu tno tf i r es ev e r i ty( e . g . 81 A rm i t a g e2014 ;W an ge ta l.201 6 ;S to ckd a l eeta l .2017 ) .In t en s i tya lon gw i thBP i sa k eycompon en to f id en t i fy in gf i r er i skg iv enknowne co lo g i c a l ,so c i a l ,ande conom i c v a lu e s(M i l l e randA g e r2013 ), andh av in gf i r e in t en s i tyd a t ac ou ldh av ea id edinth e id en t i f i c a t ion o fp r io r i tyfu e lt r e a tm en t a r e a s . 4 .5Con c lu s ion Hum an so f t enh av ed i f f i cu l tycon c ep tu a l i z in gp rob ab i l i ty ,c au s in ga comp l a c en cytow a rd in f r equ en tev en t s(T a l eb2004 ) .Inth econ t e x to ff i r eh a z a rd fo rTTTT ,th eh a z a rdpo s edbyL IF sm ayb esm a l lonay e a r lyt im e s c a l e, bu t i tdo e s e x i s t ,andov e r com in gth ehum anp r ed i spo s i t iontound e r e s t im a t e in f r equ en tev en t s i sn e c e s s a rytob e g inth ep ro c e s so fm i t i g a t in gf i r er i sk . InT e s l in ,th i sr e s e a r chh a s in c r e a s edaw a r en e s so fw i ld f i r eh a z a rd ,andp r e s en t edh a z a rda s s e s sm en t s c en a r io s inat an g ib l ev i su a l fo rm .Th ef a c tth a t l and m an a g em en td i s cu s s ion s ,bo thw i th in th eTTCandb e tw e enTTC /YGa r enowc en t e r eda roundw i ld f i r er i sk i sp e rh ap sth e mo s tsu c c e s s fu lou t com eo fth i sp ro j e c t . Comb in in gBu rnP3g en e r a t edf i r eh a z a rd m ap sw i thcommun i tyv a lu e s inaG I Sov e r l aye x e r c i s etoc r e a t er i sk m ap scou ld h e lpgu id e l and m an a g em en td e c i s ion s . 82 Chap te r5Summa ryandRe commenda t ion s W i thth ecu r r en tfu e ls t ru ctu r e , i tc anb econ f id en t lys t a t edth a tp ro lon g ed w a rmandd ryp e r iodsw i l lin c r e a s eth e r i sko f l a r g ew i ld f i r e inth eTTTT .E ld e r in t e rv i ew s e s t ab l i sh edth ecommonth em eth a tw e a th e rp a t t e rn sh av eb e encoo l e r inr e c en td e c ad e s ,andfu e l i sbu i ld in g upo rg e t t in gth i ck e r inr e g ion sth a tw e r e p r ev iou s ly mo r eop en ,e sp e c i a l lyr e g ion sth a tbu rn t inth e1950 sbu th av enow r e g rown(T imkoe ta l .2015 ) .Th a tbu i ldupo ffu e l sdo e sno tn e c e s s a r i lyr e f l e c tth e an th ropo g en i ce f f e c t so ff i r ee x c lu s ion ,bu tr a th e rth en a tu r a lp e r iod i c i tyinaf i r e r e g im ep ron etoL IF s ;v e g e t a t iv e mo s a i c se s t ab l i sh edbyp r ev iou sf i r e sm aynowb e r edu c ed in tocon t inuou sf l amm ab l efu e l s . Sp a t i a lv i su a l i z a t ion so ffu e landw i ld f i r eh a z a rdw e r ek eyin m ak in g p r ed i c t iv ef i r er i ska c c e s s ib l eandshow in gar an g eo ffu tu r epo s s ib i l i t i e s,wh i ch i s e s s en t i a ltobu i ldcon s en su sand m ak em an a g em en td e c i s ion s .Wh a tBu rnP3 mod e l l in g ind i c a t e s inth eTTTT i sth a td en s eev en a g eds t and so fbo r e a lsp ru c eand m a tu r ep in ea r e condu c iv etol a r g e w i ld f i r e ,wh i ch i se sp e c i a l lyt ru eg iv enth e con t inuou sa r r an g em en to fth e s efo r e s tfu e ltyp e sa roundT e s l in .Commun i t i e s l ik e T e s l in ,wh i cha r eemb edd ed inbo r e a lfo r es t s , shou ldcon s id e rt a c t i c stob r e ak up con t inuou sfo r e s t su s in gacomb in a t iono fp r e s c r ib edf i r eandfo r e s t th inn in g /h a rv e s t . 5.1Theneedfo r ala rge rp lann ingf ramewo rk D i s cu s s ion sw i thTTCh av er ev e a l edth en e edfo rfu rth e rd ev e lopm en to fa l and s c ap e l ev e lp l ann in gf r am ewo rktogu id efo r e s tr e sou r c eu s e .Th e Te s l inSFMP 83 i sane x c e l l en th i gh e r l ev e lp l an ,bu tp e rh ap sr equ i r e supd a t in gtor e f l e c tth en e ed fo rc l im a t ech an g ead ap t a t ion ,w i thp a r t i cu l a rfo cu sonw i ld f i r er i skand m i t i g a t ion in co r po r a t ed in toth ep l anob j e c t iv e s.F in e rs c a l ep l an scon s i s t en tw i thth eSFMP cou ldb ed ev e lop edto in fo rmfo r e s tr e sou r c eu s e .W i ld f i r er i sk m i t i g a t ion p rov id e sa un i fy in gth em etoin t e g r a t e l and m an a g em en tp l ann in gfo rth e in c lu s iono f mu l t ip l e l and u s eva lu e sid en t i f i edbyth ecommun i ty . U s in gG I Sov e r l ay mod e l sth a t in co rpo r a t ef i r eh a z a rd id en t i f i edth rou ghBu rn P3 mod e l l in gwou ldsuppo r t d ev e lopm en to fd e t a i l edandcon t e x tu a lr i sk a s s e s sm en tm ap s . Num e rou ss t r a t e g i e sandsy s t em so ffo r e s tm an a g em en te x i s t ,o fwh i ch m any sh a r eov e r l apw i the a cho th e r.E co sy s t em b a s ed m an a g em en t(EBM )app ro a ch e s r e f l e c tth ec en t r a lp r in c ip l eo fm a in t a in in ge co lo g i c a lb iod iv e r s i tyands t ru c tu r e , comb in in gs c i en t i f i cknow l ed g ew i thso c io e co lo g i c a lv a lu e s(G rumb in e1994 ) . I n t e g r a t edR e sou r c eM an a g em en t( IRM )p romo t e sd i s cou r s eamon gr e sou r c e m an a g e r s ,commun i t i e s ,and in t e r e s tg roup s to id en t i fysh a r edv a lu e s in l and m an ag e m en tend e avo r s ,andcoo rd in a t ea c t ion sw i th inandb e tw e eno r g an i z a t ion s ands c a l e so fg ov e rnm en t(Y inandP i e r c e1993) .IRMemph a s i z e ss t ak eho ld e rand in t e r e s tg roupco l l abo r a t ion ,andth en e edtop e r fo rm “ t r ad eo f fan a ly s e s ”tob a l an c e e co lo g i c a l ,so c i a l ,ande conom i cv a lu e s(C a r l sonandS t e l fo x2009 ) .Su s t a in ab l e Fo r e s tM an a g em en t( SFM )r e f l e c t smu l t iv a lu em an a g emen tb a s edonpub l i c p a r t i c ip a t ionand inpu t(Ko z ake ta l .2008 ) .IRMandSFMt endtob emo r e an th ropo c en t r i cth anEBM,wh i ch a t t emp t sto m i m i cn a tu r a ld i s tu rb an c er e g im e s ; bu tth e s ed i f f e r en c e sdono te x c lud eEBMf romb e in gIRMo rSFM , i fth eso c io e co lo g i cv a lu esy s t em i ssu chth a te co l o g i c a lfun c t ion in g i sp r io r i t i z ed. B e r g e rone t 84 a l .( 1999)p ropo s eEBMc anb ea ch i ev edth rou ghth eapp ro x im a t iono fn a tu r a l d i s tu rb an c er e g im es inm im i ck in gth ed i s t r ibu t iono ffo r e s ta g ec l a s s e sth a twou ld o c cu rund e rath eo r e t i c a ln a tu r a lfo r e s tinap a r t i cu l a renv i ronm en t . T r ad i t ion a lE co lo g i c a lKnow l ed g e(TEK )w a se s s en t i a l inth i sp ro j e c ttod i r e c t th eu s eo fw e s t e rns c i en c e inapp ro x im a t in gn a tu r a ld i s tu rb an c er e g im e sinth e TTTT. B e rk e se ta l .(2000 )d e f in eTEKa sa“ cumu l a t iv ebodyo fknow l ed g e,p r a c t i c e , andb e l i e f ,evo lv in gbyad ap t iv ep ro c e s s e sandh and eddownth rou ghg en e r a t ion sby cu l tu r a lt r an sm i s s ion . ” Bo thIRMandEBMp romo t ead ap t iv em an a g em en ta saco r e th em e ,an e c e s s i ty inth econ t e x to fc l i m a t ech an g ead ap t a t ion . Mov in gfo rw a rd, TEK m ay h e lp in fo rmth eu s eo fa l t e rn a t iv ep r a c t i c e ssu cha sp r e s c r ip t iv ef i r e(K imm e r e r 2001 ).A l lfo r e s tm an a g em en tp a r ad i gm sa r esu s c ep t ib l eto m i s in t e rp r e t a t ion , m ak in gth ed e f in i t ion i nth ep a r t i cu l a rcon t e x to fu s en e c e s s a ry. R e g a rd l e s so fwh i ch f r am ewo rk(o rcomb in a t ion )i sadop t ed inth eTTTT , th ep ro c e s s mu s tcon t inu eto a l lowth ecommun i tytogu id em an a g em en td i r e c t ion sb a s edonfo r e s tv a lu e s . 5 .1 .1E co sy s temBa sedCon se rva t ionP lann ing G iv enth a tmo s to fth eTTTT i scom an a g ed b e tw e enTTCandYukon gov e rnm en t ,m e an in g fu lw i ld f i r er i sk mi t i g a t ionr equ i r e se f f e c t iv ep l ann in gand coop e r a t ion . Ind i s cu s s in gth en e edfo ra l a r g e rp l ann in gf r am ewo rkw i thth eTTC, S i lv aE co sy s t emCon su l t an t swa sid en t i f i edb a s edonth eo r g an i z a t ion ’ sp r io rwo rk w i thF i r s tN a t ion sgov e rnm en t s .Ap roo fo fcon c ep tE co sy s t emB a s edCon s e rva t ion P l an(EBCP )w a sd ev e lop edtoh e lpv i su a l i z ewh a tsu s t a in ab l efo r e s tm an a g em en t m i gh t look l ik e inT e s l in. Th i sp l anw a sth ef i r s td i r e c t imp l em en t a t iono fw i ld f i r e 85 r i skd a t aandw a st a sk edw i thd i s t in gu i sh in gb e tw e ena r e a sfo rp ro t e c t ionandfo r m an a g em en tw i th inth eid en t i f i ed h i ghr i skzon e s .EBCP i son lyon eop t ionto d ev e lopa l a r g e rp l ann in gf r am ewo rk ,bu t i t i sa l and m an a g em en tp a r ad i gmth a t i s ap t lysu i t edtoacommun i tyl ik eT e s l inandth e l a r g e rTTTT , w i thth e i rgo a l s ou t l in ed inth eSFMPto m a in t a ine co lo g i c a l in t e g r i ty .EBCPa t t emp t stowo rkw i th in e co lo g i c a l l im i t s ,comb in in ga sp e c t so fbo thTEKandw e s t e rns c i en c e .Th ec en t r a l p r io r i tyo fEBCP i stop ro t e c to rr e s to r ee co sy s t emin t e g r i ty ,a f t e rwh i chs t r a t e g i c u s eandd ev e lopm en to fth e l and s c ap ei scon s id e r ed wh i l em a in t a in in ga l lth ep a r t s ande co lo g i c a lp ro c e s s e s(H ammond2009 ) .Th i sc r e a t e sap ro foundch a l l en g ei na l and s c ap edom in a t edbyh i gh r i skfu e l s ,andr e tu rn in gtoan a tu ra lf i r er e g im ein th e TTTT i sanab s t r a c tcon c ep t .Th eapp rop r i a t ed i s tu rb an c er e g im e i sb e s t id en t i f ied byth eTTC ,th eT e s l inT l in g i tp eop l e,ando th e rcommun i ty m emb e r s ,suppo r t edby in s t i tu t ion a lp a r tn e r s .Th i s i sapo t en t i a l ly l en g thyp ro c e s s ,and EBCPdo e sno t n e c e s s a r i lya s sum ee conom i cd ev e lopm en tw i l lo c cu rf romth eou t s e t,bu ton ly p rov id e saf r am ewo rkfo rd i s t in gu i sh in ga r e a so fp ro t e c t ionandpo t en t i a l d ev e lopm en t(H ammond2009 ) .EBCPc anthu sp ro mo t ed i s cu s s ion sabou t app rop r i a t ee conom i cd ev e lopm en t ,a id edbysp a t i a l id en t i f i c a t iono fsu chzon e s , wh i chc ansuppo r tcon s en su sb e tw e enTTCandYukongov e rnm en t.Inth i ss en s e , th ep ro j e c tp rov id e san in t e r e s t in gc a s es tudyabou thowcon f l i c t sov e rm an a g em en t ob j e c t iv e sandp e r c ep t ionsc ane i th e rob s t ru c to rp rov id ep a thw ay sb eyondcon f l i c t , d ep end in guponth ep l ann in gf r am ewo rkandob j e c t iv e sth a tar eadop t ed . Th eb en e f i to fu s in gaEBCPo ras im i l a rf r am ewo rkfo rT e s l in i sth a t con t inu a l lyupd a t e ab l ebu rnp rob ab i l i tyh a z a rdou tpu t sc anb eov e r l a idw i tha 86 p ro t e c t eda r e a ss t r a t e gyo fn e s t ede co lo g i c a ls c a l e ssoth a th i ghf i r e r i ska r e a sth a t co in c id ew i thpo t en t i a lfo r e s t d ev e lopm en ta r e a sc anb eid en t i f i ed . By in co rpo r a t in g bu rnp rob ab i l i ty mod e l l in gr e su l t sw i th inanEBCPf r am ewo rk , i tcou ldb epo s s ib l e tocomb in efo r e s th a rv e s t in g w i thw i ld f i r er edu c t ion, wh i l er e sp e c t in ge co lo g i c a l l im i t s . I tshou ldno tb ea s sum edth a tfu e lt r e a tm en t sev ent ak eth efo rmo f comm e r c i a l lo g g in g , a s i tr em a in stob ed e t e rm in ed i fsu cht r e a tm en t sev enh av eth e c ap a c i tytod e c r e a s ef i r er i sk .How ev e r ,th ecumu l a t iv e imp a c to ffu e lr edu c t ion t r e a tm en t sshou ld in c r e a s eov e rt im e ,soth ep l ann in gho r i zonn e ed sto a c commod a t ebo thsho r tand lon g t e rmob j e c t iv e s . 5 .2Po ten t ia lfo r Mode l l ingFue lRedu c t ionT rea tmen t s Bu rnP3o f f e r sth eab i l i tytoa ss e s spo t en t i a lb en e f i t so ffu e lt r e a tm en t s ,by a l t e r in gt h eFBPSy s t emfu e lc l a s s i f i c a t ion stos imu l a t ech an g e s infu e l sdu eto th inn in g ,h a rv e s t in g ,o rp r e s c r ib edbu rn in g ,a f t e rwh i chBu rn P3c anb erunto d e t e rm in eth ee f f e c tonp r ed i c t edbu rnp rob ab i l i ty .Du etot im econs t r a in t sandth e l a cko faun i fy in gp l ann in g f r am ewo rk ,i t i s b eyondth es cop eo fth i sth e s i st oa s s e s s fu e lt r e a tm en t s .I fth ecommun i tye l e c t stoe xp lo r eth i sop t ionfu r th e r , i tw i l lb e e s s en t i a ltoen su r eth a tqu an t i t a t iv es e l e c t ionandop t im i z a t iono ffu e lt r e a tm en t s i t e sw i l lb egu id edbyov e r a l l cu l tu r a lande co lo g i c a lv a lu e s .Th i ss t ep i sd ep end en t onanov e r a r ch in ge co sy s t emb a s edp l ann in gf r am ewo rk ,su cha sEBCP ,id en t i fy in g e co lo g i c a landcu l tu r a lv a lu e sonth e l and s c ap e .Inth ec a s eo fT e s l in ,anyv i ab l e w i ld f i r er i skr edu c t ions t r a t e gywould l ik e ly en t a i lacommun i ty op e r a t ed comm e r c i a lm an a g em en tend e avo r .W e l l p l a c edfu e lt r e a tm en t s ,cou ldb eu s edto 87 e x t endn a tu r a lfu e lb r e ak sp rov id edby l ak e sand l e s sf l amm ab l efo r e s ttyp e s( e . g . d e c iduou sdom in a t edfo r e s t s )toimp rov ebo thw i l d f i r ep rot e c t ionanda l low t a r g e t edfo r e s th a rv e s tfo re conom i cd ev e lopm en tw i th inth ecommun i ty . Th eYukonFo r e s tM an a g em en tB r an ch i scu r r en t lyd ev e lop in gt imb e r h a rv e s t li c en s ezon e stoen cou r a g e d ev e lopm en to fav i ab l efo r e s t indu s t ry(Fo r e s t M an a g em en tB r an ch2011 ) . Anyfo r e s td ev e lopm en tinth eTTTTshou ldb e a l i gn ed w i thw i ld f i r em an a g em en tob j e c t iv e s, r ep r e s en t in ga l ev e r a g in go fa c t iv i t i e s .Th e p ro c e s so fd evo lu t ionf romth ef ed e r a lgov e rnm en t(D ep a r tm en to fAbo r i g in a l A f f a i r sandNo r th e rnD ev e lopm en t )toth eYukonFo r e s tM an a g em en tB r an ch i sa r e l a t iv e lyr e c en t ju r i sd i c t ion a lch an g e ,w i thth et r an s f e ro ffo r e s tm an a g em en t r e spon s ib i l i t i e son lyo c cu r r in gin2003 .Yukonthu so f f e r sa ‘ c l e ans l a t e ’fo rth e adop t iono ffo r e s tp r a c t i c e sc lo s e lysu i t edtoth en e ed so fYukon e r sandth eF i r s t N a t ionsgov e rnm en t swhoo c cupyth et e r r i to ry . I nth eTTTT ,f l e x ib l es i lv i cu l tu r er e gu l a t ion sa r er equ i r edtoa c commod a t ea r an g eo fob j e c t iv e s ,on eo fwh i ch i sno ttop e rp e tu a t ef i r er i skbyp l an t in gcon i f e r s in a r e a so fh i ghw i ld f i r econ s equ en c e.Bu rn P3shou ldno tb eu s eda satoo lto ju s t i fy lo g g in ginth ef a l s eb e l i e fth a t lo g g in ga lon e i sap ro xyfo rr e a l w i ld f i r e s .I th a sb e en no t edth a th a rv e s tandr e fo r e s t a t ionp r a c t i c e sm ay in c r e a s ef i r es ev e r i ty i fo ld fo r e s t sa r er ep l a c edw i thn ewd en s e lysp a c edcon i f e rp l an t a t ion s(B r ad l eye ta l . 2016 ;K a l i e sandK en t2016 ) .A l thou ghth e s es tud i e sw e r efo rf r equ en tr e tu rn in t e rv a lf i r er e g im e s ,th es am ew a rn in g i sapp l i c ab l etoth ebo r e a lfo r e s t s inth e s tu dya r e ai fn a tu r a lfo r e s t sa r er ep l a c edw i thd en s e rp l an t a t ion s ,n e g a t in gth e c r e a t iono fs t r a t e g i cfu e lb r e ak s .S u chp r a c t i c e swou ldcon f l i c tw i thn a tu r a lfo r e s t 88 r e g en e r a t ionanda l t e rf i r er e g im e s ,po t en t i a l ly in c r e a s in gth er i sko fe x t r em e w i ld f i r eb eh av iou r ,wh i ch i se x a c t lywh a tth ecommun i tyo fT e s l inandth eTTCw i sh to m i t i g a t e . S in c em an a g em en to fw i ld f i r e i sr e a l lyabou tm an a g em en to ffu e l s ,u t i l i z in g d e c iduou ssp e c i e stoc r e a t ef i r eb r e ak sonth e land s c ap e i sanop t ionfo r con s id e r a t ion(P a r i s i ene ta l .2007 ;H i r s che ta l .2001 ) .C l im a t ech an g em ay n a tu r a l lych an g ef e edb a ck sb e tw e enfu e l sandf i r e s .A mod e l l in ge x e r c i s ebyT e r r i e r e ta l .(2013 ) ine a s t e rnbo r e a lfo r e s t sp r ed i c t edin c r e a s edp rop a g a t iono fd e c iduou s sp e c i e s , in c lud in ga sp en , inr e sp on s eto in c r e a s in gf i r e .S in c ed e c iduou sfo r e s t sh av e b e enfoundtoa c ta se f f e c t iv ef i r eb r e ak s(A l e x and e r2010 ) , itwou ldb eadv i s ab l eto a l lowfo rth i sandev enpo t en t i a l lyp l anfo r i t ,andwh e r en e c e s s a rye x a g g e r a t eth e e f f e c t ,tob en e f i tf romth e s ed e c iduou sf i r eb r e ak sonth e l and s c ap e .Bu rnP3c an h e lp id en t i fys t r a t e g i c lo c a t ionsfo rfu e lr edu c t ion ,bu ta l so in fo rmhow l a r g esu ch t r e a tm en t sn e edtob etoh av ea m e an in g fu lcon t r ibu t iontor i sk m i t i g a t ion .I t i sno t en t i r e lyc l e a rwh e th e rd e c iduou ssp e c i e ssu cha sa sp enandw i l lowwou ldn a tu r a l ly r e g en e r a t e inth efo r e s te co typ e so fth eTTTT ,o rwh e th e rc e r t a inr e g ion swou ldb e p ron etosu c c e s s ionbycon i f e r s .Du r in ge ld e r in t e rv i ew s inth ecommun i ty i tw a s found mo s tp a r t i c ip an t sp e r c e iv edf i r ea spromo t in gg r e a t e r moo s eb row s e(T imko e ta l .2015 ) , ind i c a t in gth a tf i r e s inth eTTTT m ayen cou r a g eth eg row tho f l e s s f l amm ab l ed e c iduou sv e g e t a t ionpo s t f i r e . Fu e lt r e a tm en t sa r econ t inuou scomm i tm en t s ,r equ i r in gs t r a t e g i cp l ann in g andm a in t en an c etoen su r e in t end edou t com e sa r em e t .Fu e lt r e a tm en t s, i f p e r fo rm edco r r e c t ly ,a r eanimpo r t an t too lin m i t i g a t in gth es t a r tandsp r e ado f low 89 in t en s i ty w i ld f i r e s ,bu tno tn e c e s s a r i lyth ep ro g r e s s iono fL IF s incon t inuou scon i f e r fu e ltyp e sl ik etho s ep r e s en tin th es tudya r e a . I t i sun c l e a rhowe f f e c t iv esm a l lfu e l b r e ak swou ldb ea g a in s tL IF s,su cha stho s eth a to c cu r r ed inth e1950 ’ s ,twoo f wh i chbu rn edg r e a t e rth an100 ,000h ae a ch .An in t en s e lybu rn in gc rownf i r ew i l l l ik e ly no tb ei nh ib i t edbyn a r rowfu e lb re ak s .Th i s i se sp e c i a l lyt ru econ s id e r in gth e spo t t in gc ap a c i tyo fh i gh in t en s i tyf i r e s . Dom in an tw indd i r e c t ioninth eTTTT du r in gh i s to r i cf i r econdu c iv esp r e ad d ay sh a styp i c a l l yb e ensou th ,sou thw e s t e r ly , o rw e s t e r ly(F i gu r e4 .7 ) .Th i sdo e sg iv eth e commun i tyo fT e s l in , lo c a t edonth e e a s t e rnsho r eo fT e s l inL ak e ,som ep ro t e c t ionf romany l a r g ef i r e sth a tm ays t a r t in th eF a tL ak e l and s c ap eun i t ,ar e g ion inwh i chr e l a t iv e lyh i ghBPw a s id en t i f i edin th eTTTT .O f in t e r e s thow ev e r , i sth a tth e1958f i red idspo ta c ro s sandcon t inu e bu rn in gonth ee a s t e rns id eo fT e s l inL ak e,a d i s t an c eg r e a t e rth an2km .S in c e spo t t in g ,r a th e rth and i r e c te xpo su r etof l am e i so f t enth esou r c eo fhom e sbu rn in g inu rb an in t e r f a c ef i r e s(KPMG2017 ) , s t r a t e g i c a l lyp l a c edco n t ro l l edbu rn sa r ea con s id e r a t ionfo rm i t i g a t in gth er i sko fL IF s in id en t i f i edh i ghh a z a rdr e g ion ssu cha s F a tL ak e ,wh e r efu e lt r e a tm en t sa lon ea r eno tn e c e s s a r i lye f f e c t iv e,o rdu eto a c c e s s ib i l i tyno te conom i c a l lyf e a s ib l e . 5 .3Re commenda t ion s G iv enth e l a cko fac l e a randfu l lyd ev e lop edp l ann in gf r am ewo rkund e r wh i chto imp l em en tw i ld f i r em i t i g a t ion ,sp e c i f i cr e comm end a t ion sfo rth e imp l em en t a t iono fp ro j e c tr e su l t sm ay b eo f l im i t edu s e.Som eh i gh l ev e lp r in c ip l e s fo rco n s id e r a t ionbyth ecommun i ty m ayb emo r em e an in g fu la tth i spo in t . 90 Con s i s t en tw i thth ecommun i tyd i r e c t edth em eo fth i sp ro j e c t, th efo l low in g con c ep t sa r eo f f e r edfo rcon s id e r a t ioninth ecommun i typ l ann in gp ro c e s stoh e lp suppo r tc l im a t e ch an g ead ap t a t ionand in c r e a s in gr e s i l i en c etow i ld f i r e . Found in gP r in c ip l e s 1 . Fo l lowth ep r e c au t ion a ryp r in c ip l ewh enund e r t ak in gp l an sanda c t iv i t i e s . Id en t i fya r e a sfo rp ro t e c t ionf i r s t ,b e fo r e id en t i fy in ga r e a so fpo t en t i a lu s e .A p roo fo fcon c ep tEBCPd ev e lop edfo rth ecommun i tyd emons t r a t edth eab i l i tyto in t e g r a t eab ro adr an g eo fr i sk sandv a lu e s .I twou ldb euptoth ecommun i tyto d e t e rm in e i fanEBCP ,o rs im i l a rp l ann in gp a r ad i gmshou ldb ed ev e lop edfo rth e en t i r eTTTT . Commun i tyC ap a c i tyBu i ld in g 2 .A f t e ra l and s c ap ep l anh a sb e end ev e lop ed, con s id e ru s in gBu rn P3toev a lu a t e po t en t i a lfu e lt r e a tm en t s .Fu r th e rr e s e a r ch i sr equ i r edonwh e th e rop t im i z a t ion o fth i sp ro c e s s i spo s s ib l e, andonth ed ev e lopm en to fapp rop r i a t er e fo r e s t a t ion p r a c t i c e ssp e c i f i c a l lyt a i lo r edtoth i sr e g ion .Con s id e re s t ab l i sh in gan in t e r im t imb e rsupp lyandu s in gh a rv e s tandcon t ro l l edbu rnt r i a l sw i thago a ltop rov id e mu l t ip l eb en e f i t s , in c lud in gs t r a t e g i cw i ld f i r em i t i g a t ion ,e co lo g i c a l/h ab i t a t r en ew a l ,so c i a lsp ino f f s ,andapp rop r i a t e lys c a l ede conom i cd ev e lopm en t.Th i s cou ldb e in i t i a t edev enw i thou ta l and s c ap ep l anfo rth een t i r eTTTT ,andcou ld t ak eth efo rmo fcon t inu edfu e lt r e a t m en t saroundth ecommun i ty inth eh i gh r i sk in t e r f a c eb e tw e end ev e lopm en tandn a tu r a lfo r e s t .Th e s e in i t i a lt r i a l s shou ldb ev i ew ed mo r efo rknow l ed g ed ev e lopm en tandc ap a c i tybu i ld in gr a th e r th anon lyth er e su l t in gou t com e s ,a t l e a s t in i t i a l ly . twou ldb eadv an t a g eou s i fTTCcou ldd ev e lop in hou s ew i ld f i r e mod e l l in g 3 .I c ap a c i ty .W i thsu f f i c i en tcompu t in g pow e randt r a in in gonth ep r in c ip l e so f Bu rnP3 ,TTCcou ldcon c e iv ab lyupd a t eth e mod e ltor e f l e c tch an g e s infu e l so r o th e r inpu t s .A sv e g e t a t ion inv en to ryb e com e sav a i l ab l e, mo r ea c cu r a t efu e l scan b ed e r iv edfo ra l a r g e ra r e a,andshou ldb e in co rpo r a t ed in toth e mod e l , a sth i s w i l ll ik e lyh av ean imp a c tonp r ed i c t edbu rnp rob ab i l i ty . ABu rnP3 mod e l i s upd a t ab l eandw i l limp rov eov e rt im e in i t sp r ed i c t iv eab i l i ty ,b en e f i t in gf rom g row in gw e a th e randf i r er e co rd s ,and in c r e a s edknow l ed g eo ff i r eb eh av iou r ande co lo g i c a lsu c c e s s ion inth es tudya r e a . Commun i tyEn g a g em en tandCommun i c a t ion 4 . Con s id e r imp l em en t in gacommun i tyFW Iw a t ch .Know in gth a ta g g r e s s iv ef i r e b eh av iou r i sh i s to r i c a l lyl im i t edto as e l e c tnumb e ro fsp r e ad ev en td ay sp e r y e a r ,andth a tth e s ef i r e condu c iv ew e a th e rdu r a t ion sm ay in c r e a s e inth efu tu r e , 91 i tm ayb eh e lp fu ltopub l i c a l lyannoun c esu chd ay s inth ecommun i tyto in c r e a s e v i g i l an c eonsu chd ay s .A l thou ghgov e rnm en tCFFDR Sbu l le t inbo a rd se x i s t in th ecommun i ty( ind i c a t in g low , mod e r a t e ,h i gh ,o re x t r em ef i r eh a z a rd ) ,aFW I w a t ch, runbyth ecommun i ty i t s e l fandb a s edonaFW I³19cou lds e rv ean edu c a t ion a lv a lu e .I twou ldb ee sp e c i a l lyh e lp fu l i fsu chaFW Iw a t chw a s summ a r i z e donay e a r lyb a s i sandpo s t eda tTTCo f f i c e sand inth ecommun i ty n ew s l e t t e r ino rd e rtop rov id eaqu an t i t a t iv em e a su r eo ff i r epo t en t i a lb e tw e en th ecu r r en ty e a randth eh i s to r i cr e co rd . 92 5 .4Con c lu s ion Th i sp ro j e c tp rov id e sac a s es tudyo fasu c c e s s fu lp a r tn e r sh ipb e tw e enaF i r s t N a t ion sgov e rnm en tand in s t i tu t ion a lr e s e a r ch e r s .Th econ su l t a t ionand co l l abo r a t ionw i th inth ecommun i ty m ayb eth e mo s tnov e la sp e c to fth i sr e s e a r ch . At e chn i c a ltoo lcomp l im en t edlo c a l / t r ad i t ion a lknow l ed g e ,andth er e s e a r ch p ro c e s sr em a in edr e l ev an ttocommun i tyn e ed sr a th e rth anth e in t e r e s t so f r e s e a r ch e r s .Aun iqu eoppo r tun i tye x i s t sfo rth eT e s l inT l in g i ttop e r fo rmw i ld f i r e m an a g em en tu s in gabo t tomupcommun i tyin i t i a t edapp ro a ch ,enh an c in gw i ld f i r e r e s i l i e n c ewh i l er e sp e c t in gcu l tu r a lande co lo g i c a lv a lu e s . I t mu s tb eemph a s i z edth a tth eBu rnP3mod e l i sar ep r e s en t a t iono fr e a l i ty, andend l e s s lyr e f in in g inpu t s inasy s t emth a tc ann ev e rfu l lyr ep r e s en tth e comp l e x i tyo fafo r e s t ede co sy s t emp rov id e sl im i t edb en e f i ttocommun i typ l ann in g . 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Du r in gf i e ldwo rksamp l ep lo t sw e r eu s edtodo cum en tsp e c i e s ,dbh ,h e i gh t , andund e r s to rycond i t ion sandw e r et ak en ina r e a sr ep r e s en t a t iv eo fv e g e t a t ion po ly gon s.U s in gth e s ep lo tw ayp o in t sana c cu r a cya s s e s sm en tw a sm ad er e g a rd in g th ev e g e t a t ionpo ly gon s(T ab l e1 ) . Mu l t ip l ea t t r ibu t e sa r e in c lud ed inth ev e g e t a t ion inv en to ry ,bu tth e mo s tu s e fu lfo rou rpu rpo s e so fconv e r s iontoFBPfu e ltyp e s i s 104 th es t r a tumf i e ld ,wh i cha t t emp t stosumm a r i z ev e g e t a t iond a t a in todom in an t sp e c i e sm i x e s . Tab leA .1.Assessmen to fpo lygonvege ta t ionaccu racybasedons t ra tumf ie ld Numbe ro fco r rec t ly To ta lnumbe ro fpo lygonsw i th Da te summa r izedpo lygons(based p lo ts ons t ra tumf ie ld ) Ju ly28 ,2015 3 5 Ju ly29 ,2015 2 2 Ju ly30 ,2015 5 6 Ju ly31 ,2015 4 5 Aug .1 ,2015 5 5 Aug .3 ,2015 2 2 Aug .4 ,2015 2 3 Aug .5 ,2015 9 9 Aug .6 ,2015 3 3 Aug .7 ,2015 5 7 Aug .10 ,2015 2 3 Aug .11 ,2015 2 2 Aug .12 ,2015 3 3 Aug .13 ,2015 3 3 Aug .14 ,2015 3 3 To ta l 53 61 Percen tageco r rec t=86 .9% Con f id en c e inth es t r a tumc l a s s i f i c a t iona l low edconv e r s iontoFBPfu e ltyp e s u s in gth eb e lowc l a s s i f i c a t ions ch em e .Th i sp ro c e s sw a sund e r t ak en inA r cM apand on c epo ly gond a t aw a sg iv enanFBPfu e ltyp e i tw a sconv e r t edtor a s t e rfo rmfo r in co rpo r a t ion in toBu rn P3 . VR ItoFBPConv e r s ionP ro c e s s S t a r t in gw i th11648po ly gon s • I fcov e rtyp ec l a s s=w a t e r o Th enFBPtyp e i sw a t e r( cod e102 )/ * *290po ly gon s • I fcov e rtyp ec l a s s=u rb ano re xpo s ed o Th enFBPtyp e i sNonfu e l( cod e101 )/ * *56po ly gon s • I fcov e rtyp ec l a s s=v e g e t a t ednon fo r e s t ed/ * *721po ly gon s o I fw e t l andc l a s s=non w e t l andup l andandso i l mo i s tu r er e g im e i sd ry , mod e r a t e lyd ry , mod e r a t e lyf r e sh ,o rf r e sh § Th enFBPtyp e i sV e g _n f(cod e105 )/ * *202po ly gon s § O th e rw i s eFBPtyp e i s l ik e lyw i l lowbo ganda s sum edtob eO1b ( cod e32 )w i th75%cu r in g/ * *519po ly gon s • I fcov e rtyp ec l a s s=v e g e t a t edfo r e s t ed/ * *10581po ly gon s o S ep a r a t epo ly gon sbys t r a tum 105 § 1–Sp ru c e=C2( cod e2 )/ * *3046p o ly gon s § 2–P in e=C3( cod e3 ) / * *1339po ly gon s § 3–D e c iduou s=D1 /D2( cod e13 )/ * *318po ly gon s § 4–Sp ru c eP in e=C3( cod e3 )/ * *545po ly gon s § 5–Sp ru c eD e c iduou s=C3( cod e3 )/ * *197po ly gon s § 6–P in eSp ru c e=C3( cod e3 )/ * *892po ly gon s § 7–P in eD e c iduou s=C3( cod e3 )/ * *150po ly gon s § 8–D e c iduou sSp ru c e=D1 /D2( cod e13 ) / * *142po ly gon s § 9–D e c iduou sP in e=D1 /D2( cod e13 )/ * *83po ly gon s § 10–F i r=C3( cod e3 )/ * *1803po ly gon s § 11–F i rM i x=C3( cod e3 )/ * *812po ly gon s § 12–O th e r=C2( cod e2 )/ * *1254po ly gon s 106 Append ixB:Ign i t ionG r idC rea t ionfo rTe s l inYukon P r ep a r a t iono fbo thd ep end en tv a r i ab l e( i gn i t ion s /p s eudo i gn i t ionab s en c e s ) and ind ep end en tv a r i ab l eenv i ronm en t a lp r ed i c to r sw a scomp l e t ed inA r cM ap b e fo r ep e r fo rm in ga lo g i s t i cr e gr e s s ions t a t i s t i c a lan a ly s i sandf in a lr a s t e rg r id c r e a t ion inR .R e f e r en c eto W an gandP a r i s i en(2013 ) i sf r equ en tand i s anin t e rn a l in s t ru c t ion a l do cum en tth a tw a sp rovid edby M a r cP a r i s i en . 1 .0Dependen tVa r iab leRawDataIn i t ia lP repa ra t ion( Ign i t i onPo in tDa ta ) Th ef i r s ts t epw a stodown lo adh i s to r i cw i ld f i r epo in td a t af romth eC an ad i an w i ld f i r ed a t ab a s e.Th e s e po in t sw e r ec l ipp edtoth es tudya r e a(T e s l inT l in g i t T r ad i t ion a lT e r r i to ryw i th50kmbu f f e r )w i thanadd i t ion a l10kmbu f f e rth a twou ld l a t e rb er emov edfo rc r e a t iono ff in a lBu rn P3 inpu t s .B a s edone xp lo r a to ryan a ly s i s f i r e sg r e a t e rth an3h aw e r eu s eda sacu to f ffo r i gn i t ion s .M ay31 / Jun e1w a scho s en tob eth esp r in g / summ e rsp l i tb a s edone s t im a t iono fav e r a g ed e c iduou s l e a f ou t in th es tudya r e a .B e in gth a tv e ryf ew i gn i t ion so c cu r r edinth esp r in gt im ep e r iod s t )fo rbo thhum anand l i gh tn in gf i r e s ,th e i gn i t iong r id sa r eb rok enby (b e fo r eJun e1 c au s eon lyandno ts e a son , b e c au s eb a s edonth e3h acu t o f f, e a r ly( sp r in g )f i r e sdo no tcon t r ibu t ea l a r g eamoun ttoa r e abu rn t .Th e r e fo r e ,th e r ew i l lb etwo i gn i t ion g r id s :hum anand l i gh tn in g .R a s t e rd a t a s e t sfo rth eenv i ronm en t a lp r ed i c to r v a r i ab l e sshou ldb ec r e a t edf i r s tb e fo r eth e i gn i t iond a t aandp s eudo i gn i t ion ab s en c e sa r econv e r t edf romv e c to rpo in td a t ator a s t e rg r id s . 2 .0Independen tVa r iab le s(Env i ronmen ta lDa ta ) Th e ind ep end en tv a r i ab l e s in c lud ed: 1 )e l ev a t ion ,2 )topo g r aph i cpo s i t ion ind e x (TP I ) ,and3 )r ad i a t ion .Add i t ion a l ly ,fo rhum an i gn i t ion sth ev a r i ab l e s4 ) d i s t an c etoro ad s ,and5 )ro add en s i ty, w e r eu s eda sp ro x i e sfo rhum an in f lu en c e. 2 .1E leva t ion B e fo r eth ee l ev a t ion inpu tcou ldb ec r e a t edth eFBPfu e l s inpu tw a sc r e a t ed .A s d e s c r ib ed inApp end i xI, a mo s a i cd a t a s e tw a sc r e a t edf romv e g e t a t iond e r iv edfu e l s incomb in a t ionw i than a t ion a lfu e l sd a t a s e ta ta250mr e so lu t ion .W ew an t edth e op t ion inth efu tu r etorunah i gh e rr e so lu t ion mod e lfo rth ea r e a imm ed i a t e ly a roundT e s l in ,wh i chw a s cov e r edbyth en ewv e g e t a t ion i nv en to ry ,sov e g e t a t ion po ly gond a t aw a sconv e r t edtoar a s t e rg r ido fFBPtyp e sa ta30 mr e so lu t ion .Th i s FBP l ay e ra t30m r e so lu t ionfo rm edth esn app in g l ay e rfo ra l lr a s t e rcompon en t so f th e i gn i t iong r idan a ly s i s . I fabu rn P3 mod e lfo rT e s l ini sd e s i r ed a ta30m r e so lu t ioninth efu tu r e , i t i sp r e f e r ab l e tou s eth efu e l sa sth egu id etowh i ch ev e ry th in gg e t ssn app edto .Th i s i sb e c au s e i tm ak e smo r es en s etor ep ro j e c tth e DEMto m a t chth ee x t en tandr e so lu t iono fth efu e l s inpu tth entor e p ro j e c tth efu e l s 107 to m a t chth eDEM ,b e c au s e fo rc a t e go r i c a ld a t a l ik efu e l s , n e a r e s tn e i ghbo r r e s amp l in g mu s tb eu s edande s s en t i a l ly ju s t mov e sp i x e l ssp a t i a l lyto m a t chth e d a t a s e t i t sb e in gsn app edto .ADEMsou r c edf romg eob a s ew a sr e s amp l edto30 m r e so lu t ionandc l ipp edto th es tudya r e afo rm in gth ee l ev a t ion inpu t .Wh enth ef in a l i g n i t iong r id sw e r er e p ro j e c t edf rom30 mto100 mp r io rto in co rpo r a t ion in toth e cu r r en tBu rn P3 mod e l ,b i l in e a rs amp l in gw a su s ed ,wh i ch i sgoodfo rcon t inuou s su r f a c e sa si ta l low sc e l lv a lu e stob er e c a l cu l a t ed . 2 .2Topog raph i cPo s i t ionIndex Topo g r aph i cPo s i t ionInd e x(TP I ) i sd e f in eda sth ed i f f e r en c e ine l ev a t ion b e tw e enonec e l land i t sn e i ghbo rhood ;thu s i ti sa m e a su r eo fcon c av i tyonth e l and s c ap e .Po s i t iv ev a lu e s ind i c a t eh i l l so rr id g e s ,andn e g a t iv ev a lu e s ind i c a t e v a l l ey so rs ink s( J .J enn e s s ,p e r son a lcommun i c a t ion, M ay31 ,2016) .Toc r e a t eth e TP Iinpu tw ee xp lo r edu s in gth e “L andF a c e tCo r r ido rAn a ly s i s ”e x t en s ionf rom J enn e s sEn t e rp r i s e s .F o l low in gth e in s t ru c t ion s inth epd fm anu a l in c lud edw i thth e e x t en s ionw eu s edth e“C a l cu l a t eTP Ir a s t e r ”too lw i th inth ee x t en s ion .How ev e r ,th e e x t en s ionw a sfoundtoruns low lyandtwos ep a r a t eA r cM aptoo l sw e reu s edto sp e edupth ean a ly s i sp ro c e s s ,a sc r e a t iono fTP I i ss t r a i gh t fo rw a rdfo rth ec r e a t ion o facon t inuou sr a s t e r( J .J enn e s s ,p e r son a lcommun i c a t ion ,Jun1 ,2016 ) .U s in ga c i r cu l a rn e i ghbo rhood , andar ad iu so f1500m th efo c a ls t a t i s t i c stoo lw a sru n , wh i chc a l cu l a t e sar a s t e ro fm e ann e i ghbo rhoodv a lu e s. Th enth em inu stoo lw a s u s edtosub t r a c tth em e ann e i ghbo rhoodv a lu e sf romth eo r i g in a lDEM ,r e su l t in g in th eTP I inpu t .Ou tpu te x t en tw a s30 mw i thsn app in gs e ttoth eDEM . 2 .3Rad ia t ion R ad i a t ion ,b e in gane s t im a t eo f l and s c ap esu s c ep t ib i l i tytoso l a rh e a t, i sa p ro xyfo rs lop eanda sp e c t .Th e“ a r e aso l a rr ad i a t ion ”too lw a srunw i thth et im e s t( con f i gu r a t ions e tto mu l t ip l ed ay s inay e a r ,s t a r t in gf rom M ay1 Ju l i and ay122 ) , t h andend in gS ep t emb e r30 ( Ju l i and ay274 ) .Th e“ c r e a t eou tpu t sfo re a ch in t e rv a l ” bo xr em a in edun ch e ck edsoas in g l eto t a lr ad i a t ionv a lu ew a sc a l cu l a t ed .Ou tpu t e x t en tw a s30 mw i thsn app in gs e ttoth eDEM . 2 .4D i s tan cetoRoad s Th e“Eu c l id e and i s t an c e ”too lw a srunw i thth ep ro c e s s in ge x t en ts e ttoth e s tudya r e aandth e inpu tu s edw a san a t ion a lro ad sn e two rkf i l eth a t in c lud e sth e h i ghw ay s inth es tudya r e aandth em a jo rro ad sa roundT e s l in .Ou tpu te x t en tw a s30 mw i thsn app in gs e ttoth eDEM . 2 .5RoadDen s i ty Ro add en s i ty inpu tw a sc r e a t edu s in gth e“k e rn e ld en s i ty ”too l .Th e inpu t v e c to rro add a t aw a sth es am ea stha tu s edfo rd i s t an c etoro ad s .As e a r chr ad iu so f 108 12 ,500 mw a su s edandp ro c e s s in ge x t en tw a ss e ttoth es tudya r e a .Ou tpu te x t en t w a s30 mw i thsn app in gs e ttoth eDEM . 3 .0Dependen tVa r iab leComp le t ion 3 .1Ra s te r i zetheign i t ionpo in tda taf romse c t ion1 .0 U s in gth e“po in ttor a s t e r ”too l, h i s to r i c i gn i t ionlo c a t ion s( g r e a t e rth an3h a) byc au s e(hum anandl i gh tn in g )w e r econv e r t edf rompo in td a t atoar a s t e rd a t a s e t w i thp i x e lv a lu e so f“1 ”r ep r e s en t in ga l lf i r ep r e s en c e lo c a t ion s .Th ec e l ls i z ew a ss e t to30 mto m a t chth eind ep end en tv a r i ab l er a s t e rd a t a s e t sandsn app in gw a ss e tto th eDEM( a l thou ghanyo fth e5 ind ep end en tv a r i ab l er a s t e r scou ldh av eb e en cho s ena sa l l inpu t ssh a r eth es am ee x t en tandr e so lu t ion )soth a tp i x e l sov e r l ay e a cho th e re x a c t ly . 3 .2C rea terandomp seudoign i t ionab sen ce s Lo c a t ion sfo r i gn i t ionab s en c e sw e r er andom lyg en e r a t edsoa lo g i s t i c r e g r e s s ionan a ly s i scou ldb eu s edtod e t e rm in e i fth e r ew a sad i f f e r en c eb e tw e en i gn i t ion lo c a t ion sv e r su sp s eudoab s en c e s int e rm s o fth er e spon s eto env i ronm en t a lp r ed i c to rv a r i ab l ev a lu e s .Th er a t ioo fp s eudoab s en c e stor e a l i gn i t ion sshou ldb eb e tw e en2 :1and3 :1(M A. P a r i s i en ,p e r son a lcommun i c a t ion ) . U s in gth e“ c r e a t er andompo in t s ”too l, 425r andompo in t sw e r ec r e a t ed inth efu e l cov e r edpo r t ion so fth es tudya r e a .On epo t en t i a lp rob l em i sth a tb e c au s eth e p s eudoab s en c e sw e r er andom lyg en e r a t edth e r e i sas l i gh tch an c eth a tap s eudo ab s en c ep i x e lov e r l i e sat ru e i gn i t ionp i x e l .Th i spo s s ib i l i tyw a sch e ck edfo ru s in g th e“boo l e anand ”too l .Ov e r l apo f i gn i t ion sandp s eudoab s en c e sw a sno tp r e s en t . 3 .3Comp i leda ta f ramefo ru seinR Th en e x tt a skw a stocomp i l ep i x e ld a t afo rth e ind ep end en tv a r i ab l e sand a s so c i a t ed i gn i t ion s / i gn i t ionab s en c e sfo re a ch i gn i t iong r id .Fo rth i sp ro j e c t ,two i gn i t iong r id s w e r ec r e a t ed:hum anand l i gh tn in g .Th e“ s amp l e ”too lw a su s edto r e adth ep i x e lv a lu e so f i gn i t ion / ab s en c er a s t e r sandth ea s so c i a t ed ind ep end en t v a r i ab l ep i x e l sfo rtho s e lo c a t ion s , andg en e r a t et ab l e s int e x tfo rm a t(A r cG I S2012 ) . Th e s et ab l e sfo r i gn i t ion s(bo thhum anand l i gh tnin g ins ep a r a t et ab l e s )and p s eudoab s en c e sw e r er e a r r an g ed ine x c e lu s in gth eco lumnfo rm a tt ak enby W an g andP a r i s i en(2013 )andth enr e ad in toR in . c svfo rm a t .Th e5p r ed i c to rv a r i ab l e r a s t e r sw e r econv e r t edtoA SC I Ifo rm a tfo r in co rpo r a t ion in toR . 109 4 .0S ta t i s t i ca lAna ly s i sinR 4 .1HumanIgn i t ionG r id Th efo l low in gRcod ew a su s edtop e r fo rmth ean a ly s i s. # read in the database of human caused ignitions, pseudo ignition absences, and the associated independent variables. human <- read.csv("C:/Burn-P3/August_2016/Ignition Grids/human_database.csv") # the first step is to look at correlation between independent variables cor(human[2:6]) elev rad tpi roaddist roaddens elev 1.0000000 0.267651195 0.316011704 0.239507339 -0.295273396 rad 0.2676512 1.000000000 -0.009277176 0.179828715 -0.114332166 tpi 0.3160117 -0.009277176 1.000000000 -0.003361955 0.000366278 roaddist 0.2395073 0.179828715 -0.003361955 1.000000000 -0.351793600 roaddens -0.2952734 -0.114332166 0.000366278 -0.351793600 1.000000000 Th er e su l t in gco r r e l a t ion m a t r i xy i e ld sco r r e l a t ion samon gv a r i ab l e sth a ta r e a c c ep t ab ly low ,wi thno th in g c lo s etoth e0 .7 l im i tr e comm end edby W an gand P a r i s i en( 2013) .Th en e x ts t e pw a sto looka tth er e l a t ion sh ipb e tw e enf i r e p r e s en c e / ab s en c eande a che xp l an a to ryv a r i ab l ev i su a l lyu s in gag en e r a ladd i t iv e mod e l(GAM ) .F i r s tth eGAM l ib r a ry mu s tb e in s t a l l edandr e f e r en c ed,how ev e rw e u s edth em g cv l ib r a ryr a th e rth anth eg am l ib r a r y(M A.P a r i s i en ,p e r son a l commun i c a t ion ) . library(mgcv) for (j in 2:6){ indvar <- human[,j] # need to make vectors to integrate to GAM store <- gam(ign ~ s(indvar), family=binomial, data=human) plot(store, main=colnames(human)[j]) rm(store); rm(indvar) } 110 Byg r aph in gth ed a t a l in e a r i tyi t c anb ea s s e s s ed , wh i chw i l l in fo rmt r an s fo rm a t ion inth eGLMp ro c e s s .E l ev a t ion look s l in e a r ,wh i l eth eo th e rp r ed i c to rv a r i ab l e sa r e l e s sth an l in e a r .Th en e x ts t epw a s bu i ld in gaGAM mod e lw i tha l le xp l an a to ry v a r i ab l e s . gam_human <- gam(ign ~ s(elev)+s(rad)+s(tpi)+s(roaddist)+s(roaddens), family=binomial, data=human) summary(gam_human) Parametric coefficients: Approximate significance of smooth terms: edf Ref.df Chi.sq p-value s(elev) 1.000 1.000 21.148 4.25e-06 *** s(rad) 1.000 1.000 0.110 0.7399 s(tpi) 1.000 1.000 0.238 0.6255 s(roaddist) 1.000 1.000 20.104 7.34e-06 *** s(roaddens) 1.359 1.634 7.172 0.0172 * Th eGAMan a ly s i sind i c a t ed e l ev a t ion ,ro add i s t an c e ,andro add en s i tyw e r e s i gn i f i c an tp r ed i c to rv a r i ab l e sfo rhum anc au s ed i gn i t ion s .Ag en e r a l l in e a r mod e l (GLM )an a ly s i sw a sp e r fo rm edu s in gon lyth es i gn i f i c an tv a r i ab l e s ,w i thqu ad ra t i c t r an s fo rm a t ion sonnon l in e a r v a r i ab l e s .A l thou ghth eGAMcou ldb eu s edtoc r e a t e th e i gn i t iong r id ,th eGLM i sp r e f e r r edb e c au s e i ts imp l i f i e sth e mod e lab i tfu r th e r , avo id sov e r f i t t in g ,and i se a s i e rtocomp r eh end . glm_human <- glm(ign ~ elev+roaddist+I(roaddist^2)+roaddens+I(roaddens^2), family=binomial, data=human) summary(glm_human) Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) 1.978e+00 6.513e-01 3.037 0.00239 ** elev -2.855e-03 5.972e-04 -4.780 1.75e-06 *** roaddist -3.152e-05 2.693e-05 -1.171 0.24180 I(roaddist^2) -9.060e-11 4.126e-10 -0.220 0.82622 roaddens 5.013e+03 2.394e+03 2.094 0.03623 * I(roaddens^2) -2.400e+06 1.959e+06 -1.225 0.22046 111 # Next step is to build the ignition grids, first reference the raster library and read in the 5 predictor variables. library(raster) elev <- raster("C:/Burn-P3/August_2016/Ignition Grids/elev.asc") roaddens <- raster("C:/Burn-P3/August_2016/Ignition Grids/dens_rd.asc") roaddist <- raster("C:/Burn-P3/August_2016/Ignition Grids/dist_rd.asc") rad <- raster("C:/Burn-P3/August_2016/Ignition Grids/radiation.asc") tpi <- raster("C:/Burn-P3/August_2016/Ignition Grids/tpi.asc") # Stack the rasters raster.list <- list(elev=elev,rad=rad,tpi=tpi,roaddist=roaddist, roaddens=roaddens) the.stack <- stack(raster.list) # Specify output file. outfile.sp <- "C:/Burn-P3/August_2016/Ignition Grids/ign_grid_human.asc" ign_grid_human <-predict(the.stack,glm_human,filename=outfile.sp, progress="text",format="ascii",overwrite=T) # Next Scale the grids from 0 to 1 for easier display, and create final raster output. scaled_ign_grid_human <- (ign_grid_human + abs(cellStats(ign_grid_human,stat='min'))) / (cellStats(ign_grid_human, stat='max') - cellStats(ign_grid_human, stat='min')) writeRaster(scaled_ign_grid_light, "C:/Burn-P3/August_2016/Ignition Grids/scaled_ign_grid_hum.asc", format="ascii",overwrite=T) 4 .2L igh tn ingIgn i t ionG r id Th ep ro c e s sfo rth e l i gh tn in gi gn i t ion g r idc r e a t ionw a smu chth es am ea sth a tu s ed fo rth ehum an i gn i t iong r idc r e a t ion ,fo rcomp l e t en e s s , th eRcod eu s edi s in c lud ed h e r e. Ro add i s t an c eandro add en s i tyw e r eno te xp e c t edtob es i gn i f i c an tp r ed i c to r s fo r l i gh tn in gbu tw e r ech e ck edfo rnon e th e l e s s . # read in the database of lightning caused ignitions, pseudo ignition absences, and the associated independent variables lightning <- read.csv("C:/Burn-P3/August_2016/Ignition Grids/lightning_database.csv") # the first step is to look at correlation between independent variables cor(lightning[2:6]) elev elev rad tpi roaddist roaddens 1.00000000 0.23654268 0.333824165 0.07332232 -0.215771492 112 rad 0.23654268 1.00000000 -0.023013035 0.13624349 -0.087124762 tpi 0.33382417 -0.02301303 1.000000000 -0.05307161 0.009257057 roaddist 0.07332232 0.13624349 -0.053071607 1.00000000 -0.331368514 roaddens -0.21577149 -0.08712476 0.009257057 -0.33136851 1.000000000 P r ed i c to rv a r i ab l e sh av esu f f i c i en t ly lowco r r e l a t ion . library(mgcv) for (j in 2:6){ indvar <- lightning[,j] # need to make vectors to integrate to GAM store <- gam(ign ~ s(indvar), family=binomial, data=lightning) plot(store, main=colnames(lightning)[j]) rm(store); rm(indvar) } Fo r l i gh tn in gp r ed i c to rv a r i ab l e s, ro add i s t an c eandro add en s i tya r e l in e a r ,wh i l e o th e rv a r i ab l esa r enon l in e a r . Th i s i s in t e r e s t in gg iv enth a tro ad sshou ldn ’ th av e any in f lu en c eon l i gh tn in g ,andth eob s e rv ed l in e a r i ty i sr e f l e c t in gcov a r i an c eo f o th e rv a r i ab l e s . gam_lightning <- gam(ign ~ s(elev)+s(rad)+s(tpi)+s(roaddist)+s(roaddens), family=binomial, data=lightning) summary(gam_lightning) Approximate significance of smooth terms: 113 edf Ref.df Chi.sq p-value s(elev) 6.576 7.722 34.704 2.7e-05 *** s(rad) 1.000 1.000 1.940 0.1637 s(tpi) 1.876 2.447 6.208 0.0698 . s(roaddist) 1.000 1.000 1.028 0.3107 s(roaddens) 1.677 2.046 0.999 0.5848 E l ev a t ion i sas i gn i f i c an tp r ed i c to ro f l i gh tn in g i gn i t ion s ,andtp i i sa lmo s ta s i gn i f i c an tp r ed i c to ro f l i gh tn in g i gn i t ion s . A tM a r c ’ sr e comm end a t iontp iw a s in c lud edd e sp i t eno tm e e t in ga0 .05p v a lu eth r e sho ld(M A.P a r i s i en ,p e r son a l commun i c a t ion ) . glm_lightning <- glm(ign ~ elev+I(elev^2)+tpi+I(tpi^2), family=binomial, data=lightning) summary(glm_lightning) Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) (Intercept) -3.409e+00 1.740e+00 -1.959 0.0501 . elev 7.138e-03 3.269e-03 2.183 0.0290 * I(elev^2) -4.167e-06 1.504e-06 -2.771 0.0056 ** tpi 4.307e-03 1.759e-03 2.449 0.0143 * I(tpi^2) 2.559e-05 1.232e-05 2.077 0.0378 * library(raster) elev <- raster("C:/Burn-P3/August_2016/Ignition Grids/elev.asc") roaddens <- raster("C:/Burn-P3/August_2016/Ignition Grids/dens_rd.asc") roaddist <- raster("C:/Burn-P3/August_2016/Ignition Grids/dist_rd.asc") rad <- raster("C:/Burn-P3/August_2016/Ignition Grids/radiation.asc") tpi <- raster("C:/Burn-P3/August_2016/Ignition Grids/tpi.asc") raster.list <- list(elev=elev,rad=rad,tpi=tpi,roaddist=roaddist, roaddens=roaddens) the.stack <- stack(raster.list) outfile.sp <- "C:/Burn-P3/August_2016/Ignition Grids/ign_grid_lightning.asc" ign_grid_lightning