OVER THE EDGE March 14, 2007 One of 2e most disconcerting aspects of the idea behind tipping points is that we don't know for sure when they'll be reachec 4d. No one scientist, or group of scientists for that matter, can give us a definitive answer to the question “when will global temperatures rise to the point where melting icecaps make the ocean cold enough to stall currents and wreak all-out havoc on the environment?” Copy WiLLer CoLUMNIST Tipping Points. You may have heard the phrase lately in refer- ence to the impending doom that climate change forecasts for our beautiful planet. If you need a little refresher, ‘tipping points’ have to do with the point at which the current system (in this case global environmental processes, including ocean currents) chan- ges in response to the uneven and unchecked swelling of a part of that system (in this case temper- ature). Since my last installment for this column was all about the environment, I’m going to try to draw some parallels between our environmental situation and world systems in the news today. Per- haps, if I can get the phrasing and rhetoric straight, by the end of this column we’ll see whether or not we have more than just the warm- ing of our climate to do mental and verbal gymnastics with. One of the most disconcerting aspects of the idea behind tipping points is that we don’t know for sure when they’ll be reached. No one scientist, or group of scientists for that matter, can give us a defin- itive answer tothe question “when will global temperatures rise to the point where melting icecaps make the ocean cold enough to stall cur- rents and wreak all-out havoc on the environment?” In all reality, it is probably a good thing that we don’t know when we’ll reach this tipping point, if at all. If we did know, you can bet that the typical image of governments with their head in the sand on the issue would shift to that of a chicken dancing on a hotplate with blood (a handy metaphor for money) squirting out its headless neck. Sadly, even though the government chicken is squirting all sorts of money at the problem, like blood on a hot grill, the money does nothing to ac- tually solve the problem and turn down the heat. Instead, the head of the chicken (we’ll equate it to opposition parties) is sitting on the sidelines hysterically telling the dancing chicken to go right, then left, no, RIGHT! to get off the burner. This is, of course futile, as the chicken body has no ears. Of course, if the chicken head wasn’t solely interested in getting back to the top of the chicken govern- ment, it would look around, see the solution to the burning prob- lem is cutting off the power that creates the heat, and unplug the hotplate. The moral of this story is that the only way to_save the day is to cut the power. So as I was saying, it’s a good thing we don’t know when the tip- ping point is. Not knowing gives added urgency to tackling the problem before we succumb to ‘it. Take global finance for example. In the news this week, China’s stock exchange underwent a mas- sive consolidation and readjust- ment, which brought on waves of economic insecurity and tumbling . markets around the world. While the conventional idea here is that China was seeking to consolidate its recent growth to build a stable platform to keep building from, others have floated the idea that perhaps this market adjustment, as part of Chinese government ‘austerity measures’, is a pre- tense for something else. Maybe upon seeing standards of living and wealth creation climb so dra- matically in. recent years, Com- munist Party leaders decided to remind the people ‘who’s boss.’ This statement would be no bet- ter than pie in the sky if China’s Prime Minister, Wen Jiabao, hadn’t made it clear that the Com- munist Party has no intent to re- spond to the most recent chorus of voices urging democratic reform the same day that their market took a tumble. PM Wen elabor- ated, saying that it will take a few generations, perhaps as long as 100 years, to solidify a function- ing socialist economy and society ready for the trials of democracy. Could this statement and the sub- sequent market correction be the Chinese government’s reaction to a perceived democratic tipping point on China’s horizon? Maybe, but who knows for sure. Again, that’s the beauty of tipping points: they force our hand without ever needing to occur. To build off of this idea, let’s look at the effect of that market tumble in the context of global- ization. We’ve all heard countless _ times how globalization is the result of interlinking economies, trade and investment around the world. Yet, like dominoes or a house of cards, the pattern and structures that are created is de- pendant on each piece. Sure you might not succeed in knocking the whole structure down by eliminat- ing just one piece, but if that piece hits another and then another, pretty soon the whole thing falls apart. So what’s the tipping point to the globalized world economy? Already we hear that the US econ- omy is shaky, while other -econ- omies around the world are grow- ing at a breakneck pace. See the uneven swelling at work here? We shall see in the coming weeks and months what the fallout from this Chinese market correction will be, but the fact that it triggered the re- sponse it did serves as a warning for another possible tipping point. We must ask ourselves: At what point will this corporate-driven global process tip from creat- ing wealth to extinguishing it? It seems to me that the first country to take global warming truly ser- iously and de-link their carbon- based economy from global trade and economic flows could send shockwaves through the current system. The bigger the economic player, the quicker the house will fall. Not to point any fingers, but with a 9 TRILLION dollar debt and a slumping economy... if you thought the carnage from the Twin Towers was bad... _ To link this idea of tipping points up with topic related to the last, I ask this: When will the standoff between the US/ its West- erm compatriots and Iran reach its tipping point? Already the rhetor- ic is at a strained tone, what with “all options on the table” (i.e. War is a possible scenario) and “Tran will never stop enrichment of uranium” (straight from the Iranian government). For those not following the developments: The US and allies demand. that Iran stop enriching uranium (US says it’s for weapons, much as they said Saddam had WMD’s, while Iran maintains the fuel is for peaceful electricity produc-_ tion); The UN security council has sanctioned Iran and Iran de- fies the sanctions and deadlines imposed by stepping up its en- richment activities (they’ve built more than 100 new enrichment centrifuges in recent months); the US puts a battle carrier in the Persian Gulf, while Iran tests missiles they claim are capable of destroying a battleship or submarine; the war of the words continues as the latest deadline expires without progress. By now I don’t think I even need to say it, but I will anyways: The tipping point is on the horizon. Iran has a ’ defiant and militant leader willing to resort to brinkmanship to estab- lish its role as a regional power- house. The US has a defiant and militant leader willing to resort to brinkmanship to maintain some semblance of superpower .author- ity. Now, albeit President Ah- madinejad in Iran is a bit looney ‘ with his vitriol on Israel, but time and action has shown that Pres- ident Bush is no scholar and cer- tainly no gentleman either. These, my friends, are surely uncertain and disconcerting times. So I return to the example of the government chicken. The solution there is to detach your attention from the frenetic bloody mess of the immediate impulse/ headline and take a thoughtful look around at alternative actions. We tend to get caught up in the mix of it all and lose sight of our power to propose a rational solu- tion that is divorced from our cur- trent situation. To the environment we have the knee-jerk response that we shouldn’t sacrifice our current economic model for na- ture. Instead, why aren’t our lead- ers asking us how we could retool our method of making money? To the Chinese we tend to ask why they aren’t more democratic like us. Can’t we inquire about how college pro PAINTER COLLEGE PRO PAIN they want to govern themselves and how we can help them to achieve it together instead? To the global economy we ask how we can compete and get ahead. Instéad can’t we ask how we can balance cooperation and self-suf- ficiency among nations? To Iran we ask why they insist on provok- ing the world. Why can’t. we ask them how they want to contribute to global stability, seeing as they have the economic and regional clout to do so? To the US we ask how they can possibly claim to possess moral legitimacy for their actions. Why can’t we ask them why they think it’s ok for them to enrich uranium and possess nuclear warheads capable of nuk- ing the planet ten times over, but _ not for other countries to possess the same capability (the tragically ironic part here is that the US has used The Bomb and still maintains an arsenal for deterrence, while Iran has committed to letting UN inspectors in the country to do checkups if it can continue peace- ful enrichment)? If we citizens of the world are to make it to the next century, perhaps we should start asking ourselves and others these harder questions instead of letting our “independent” media ask the easy soft-ball pitch questions for us. Maybe then we’ll recognize the tipping points all around us before we clumsily plod right past them. SUMMER JOBS TERS is presently looking for responsible / hard- working University or College students for: Full-Time Painting Positions May - August No experience required, we will train you to paint. 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